Use of high-resolution NWP rainfall and river flow forecasts for advance warning of the Carlisle flood, north-west England

On the 8 January 2005 the city of Carlisle in north-west England was severely flooded following 2 days of almost continuous rain over the nearby hills. Orographic enhancement of the rain through the seeder–feeder mechanism led to the very high rainfall totals. This paper shows the impact of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the 12 km available at the time of the event. These forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high-resolution rainfall forecasts to the PDM and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Acceptable use policy and employee computer usage: case of Sri Lankan software development industry

Organizations introduce acceptable use policies to deter employee computer misuse. Despite the controlling, monitoring and other forms of interventions employed, some employees misuse the organizational computers to carry out their personal work such as sending emails, surfing internet, chatting, playing games etc. These activities not only waste productive time of employees but also bring a risk to the organization. A questionnaire was administrated to a random sample of employees selected from large and medium scale software development organizations, which measured the work computer misuse levels and the factors that influence such behavior. The presence of guidelines provided no evidence of significant effect on the level of employee computer misuse. Not having access to Internet /email away from work and organizational settings were identified to be the most significant influences of work computer misuse.

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Effect of acceptable use policy on employee computer use : case of Sri Lankan software development organizations

It is a known fact that some employees misuse the organizational computers to do their personal work such as sending emails, surfing the Internet, chatting, playing games. These activities not only waste productive time of employees but also bring a risk factor to the organization. This affects organizations in the software industry very much as almost all of their employees are connected to the Internet throughout them day./ By introducing an Acceptable Use Policy (AUP) for an organization, it is believed that the computer misuse by its employees could be reduced. In many countries Acceptable Use Policies are used and they have been studied with various perspectives. In Sri Lankan context research on these areas are scarce. This research explored the situation in Sri Lanka with respect to AUPs and their effectiveness./ A descriptive study was carried out to identify the large and medium scale software development organizations that had implemented computer usage guidelines for employees. A questionnaire was used to gather information regarding employee’s usual computer usage behavior. Stratified random sampling was employed to draw a representative sample from the population./ Majority of the organizations have not employed a written guideline on acceptable use of work computers. The study results did not provide evidence to conclude that the presence or non presence of an AUP has a significant difference in computer use behaviors of employees. A significant negative correlation was observed between level of awareness about AUP and misuse. Access to the Internet and organizational settings were identified as significant factors that influence employee computer misuse behavior.

Ultimate attainment in the use of collocations among heritage speakers of Turkish in Germany and Turkish–German returnees

In this paper we show that heritage speakers and returnees are fundamentally different from the majority of adult second language learners with respect to their use of collocations (Laufer & Waldman, 2011). We compare the use of lexical collocations involving yap- “do” and et- “do” among heritage speakers of Turkish in Germany (n = 45) with those found among Turkish returnees (n = 65) and Turkish monolinguals (n = 69). Language use by returnees is an understudied resource although this group can provide crucial insights into the specific language ability of heritage speakers. Results show that returnees who had been back for one year avoid collocations with yap- and use some hypercorrect forms in et-, whilst returnees who had been back for seven years at the time of recording produce collocations that are quantitatively and qualitatively similar to those of monolingual speakers of Turkish. We discuss implications for theories of ultimate attainment and incomplete acquisition in heritage speakers.

Knowledge and perception of Ghanaian cocoa farmers on mirid control and their willingness to use forecasting systems

Annual losses of cocoa in Ghana to mirids are significant. Therefore, accurate timing of insecticide application is critical to enhance yields. However, cocoa farmers often lack information on the expected mirid population for each season to enable them to optimise pesticide use. This study assessed farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of mirid control and their willingness to use forecasting systems informing them of expected mirid peaks and time of application of pesticides. A total of 280 farmers were interviewed in the Eastern and Ashanti regions of Ghana with a structured open and closed ended questionnaire. Most farmers (87%) considered mirids as the most important insect pest on cocoa with 47% of them attributing 30-40% annual crop loss to mirid damage. There was wide variation in the timing of insecticide application as a result of farmers using different sources of information to guide the start of application. The majority of farmers (56%) do not have access to information on the type, frequency and timing of insecticides to use. However, respondents who are members of farmer groups had better access to such information. Extension officers were the preferred channel for information transfer to farmers with 72% of farmers preferring them to other available methods of communication. Almost all the respondents (99%) saw the need for a comprehensive forecasting system to help farmers manage cocoa mirids. The importance of accurate timing for mirid control based on forecasted information to farmer groups and extension officers was discussed.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Wear of Ball Attachments After 1 to 8 Years of Clinical Use: A Qualitative Analysis

The purpose of this study was to analyze and compare scanning electron microscopy (SEM) observations of ball attachments that had been worn by patients during three periods of clinical use. One hundred forty-four specimens of ball anchor attachments (gold alloy matrix and titanium patrix) were studied by SEM after periods of approximately 1, 3.5, and 8 years of clinical use. Twenty new attachment components were examined as controls. SEM images revealed signs of mechanical wear for the ball attachments studied. The surfaces of the titanium patrix were associated primarily with roughening after short-term use, whereas surfaces of the gold alloy matrix showed wear, roughening, and loss of microscopic material in the form of flakes. Severe mechanical wear on both surfaces was noted after longer periods of use. The mechanical changes were not correlated with patient-mediated observations regarding the time-dependent retentive efficacy of the attachments. One year of clinical wear appeared to have limited effect on the ball attachment tested. Conversely, longer periods of use led to marked modifications in shape of the matrix and patrix components. Int J Prosthodont 2011;24:270-272.

The Effect of Residence Time on the Tensile Properties of Superelastic and Thermal Activated Ni-Ti Orthodontic Wires

Since the 1980s, different devices based on superelastic alloys have been developed to fulfill orthodontic applications. Particularly in the last decades several researches have been carried out to evaluate the mechanical behavior of Ni-Ti alloys, including their tensile, torsion and fatigue properties. However, studies regarding the dependence of elastic properties on residence time of Ni-Ti wires in the oral cavity are scarce. Such approach is essential since metallic alloys are submitted to mechanical stresses during orthodontic treatment as well as pH and temperature fluctuations. The goal of the present contribution is to provide elastic stress-strain results to guide the orthodontic choice between martensitic thermal activated and austenitic superelastic Ni-Ti alloys. From the point of view of an orthodontist, the selection of appropriate materials and the correct maintenance of the orthodontic apparatus are essential needs during clinical treatment. The present work evaluated the elastic behavior of Ni-Ti alloy wires with diameters varying from 0.014 to 0.020 inches, submitted to hysteresis tensile tests with 8% strain. Tensile tests were performed after periods of use of 1, 2 and 3 months in the oral cavity of patients submitted to orthodontic treatment. The results from the hysteresis tests allowed to exam the strain range covered by isostress lines upon loading and unloading, as well as the residual strain after unloading for both superelastic and thermal activated Ni-Ti wires. Superelastic Ni-Ti wires exhibited higher load isostress values compared to thermal activated wires. It was found that such differences in the load isostress values can increase with increasing residence time.

Fixed-time artificial insemination with estradiol and progesterone for Bos indicus cows I: Basis for development of protocols

Five experiments were conducted on commercial farms in Brazil aiming to develop a fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) protocol that achieved pregnancy rates between 40% and 55% in Bos indicus cows. These studies resulted in the development of the following protocol: insertion of all intravaginal device containing 1.9 g of progesterone (CIDR) plus 2.0 mg im estradiol benzoate on Day 0; 12.5 mg im dinoprost tromethamine on Day 7 in cycling cows or oil Day 9 in anestrous cows; CIDR withdrawal plus 0.5 mg im estradiol cypionate plus temporary calf removal on Day 9; TAI (48 h after CIDR withdrawal) plus reuniting of calves with their dams on Day 11. Reduced dose of prostaglandin F(2 alpha) (PGF(2 alpha): 12.5 mg im dinoprost tromethamine) effectively caused luteolysis. In cycling cows, fertility was greater when the treatment with PGF(2 alpha) was administered on Day 7 than oil Day 9, but in anestrous cows, no effects of time of the PGF(2 alpha) treatment were found. Estradiol cypionate effectively replaced estradiol benzoate or gonadotropin-releasing hormone as the ovulatory stimulus, reducing labor and cost. In this protocol, CIDR inserts were successfully used four times (9 d each use) with no detrimental effects on fertility. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deuterium Equilibrium Time in Saliva of Newborn Infants

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Microhabitat use by species of the genera Bothrops and Crotalus (Viperidae) in semi-extensive captivity

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of caffeine and used coffee grounds on biological features of Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae) and their possible use in alternative control

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Use of a carbon paste electrode modified with spinel-type manganese oxide as a potentiometric sensor for lithium ions in flow injection analysis

A potentiometric sensor constructed from a mixture of 25% (m/m) spinel-type manganese oxide (lambda-MnO2), 50% (m/m) graphite powder and 25% (m/m) mineral oil is used for the determination of lithium ions in a flow injection analysis system. Experimental parameters, such as pH of the carrier solution, flow rate, injection sample volume, and selectivity for Li+ against other alkali and alkaline-earth ions and the response time of this sensor were investigated. The sensor response to lithium ions was linear in the concentration range 8.6 x 10(-5) - 1.0 x 10(-2) mol L-1 with a slope 78.9 +/- 0.3 mV dec(-1) over a wide pH range 7 - 10 (Tris buffer), without interference of other alkali and alkaline-earth metals. For a flow rate of 5.0 mL min(-1) and a injection sample volume of 408.6 muL, the relative standard deviation for repeated injections of a 5.0 x 10(-4) mol L-1 lithium ions was 0.3%.

The use of extruded feed in fish food

In our country, the intensive culture of fish has been making progress due to the availability of extruded rations, which are characterized by the way they have been formulated to assist the nutritional demands of the tropical species and for facilitating a better practice of alimentary handling. This process checks the extruded product density and the desirable physical/chemical aspects to a diet that should be handled in the water, the critical factor of this activity. It is important to emphasize that this product stays to the surface of the water, facilitates the consumption control and the observation of the general aspects of the school of fish, as well as guaranteeing that no deterioration of the physical/chemical characteristics of the water occurs. The floating characteristic of the extruded ration is preferable for farmers because most of the tropical species feed at the surface of the water. In some cases, in the function of the alimentary habit, the thermal conditions of the water and the handling system produce granules with different densities. This is due to the humidity and the applied cooking heat, which modifies the time of hydration, and consequently the ability to float. To establish the physical presentation idea for a ration for tropical fishes, it is necessary that the pellets come in sizes, textures, humidities and densities in order to allow for the different phases of the lives of the fishes. This ration should be the result of characteristics of the species, such as the anatomophysiologics particularities, alimentary habits, digestive capacity and alimentary behavior. Only in this way is it possible to offer to those fishes a ration whose nutritious value and physical presentation facilitate the best biological and economic answers.Those aspects need to be reviewed because the tropical species that are cultivated in our country present selective behavior in relation to the size of the pellet. Generally, this has access to the digestive system without waste; the digestibility, therefore, is dependent upon the size of the particles and the physical aspects of the pellets. They should still consider that those granules could be less abrasive and softer. The extruded rations available in the national market present a qualitative reference to its proteic level, whose consequence allows us to infer that those are overestimated for the final phase of those fishes. Thus, the final cost of production is made unfeasible. In this point of view of the development of the national fish culture, and the growing adoption of the intensive system of production, it can link that such progress is a function of the availability of the rations in the extruded form. Although this technique of processing of rations has revolutionized the market in such a way that has been seen as preferable for farmers, some feel that there is a lack of products best suited for the initial phases of fingerlings production.