The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Apical limit of root canal filling and its relationship with success on endodontic treatment of a mandibular molar: 11-year follow-up

Objective. This article discusses the relationship between apical limit of root canal filling and success on endodontic treatment of a mandibular molar. Study design. A mandibular right first molar with vital pulp was endodontically treated, and 3 years later periapical lesions on mesial and distal roots were detected. The canals were retreated and obturated to the same levels as in the previous treatment. Results. An 8-year radiographic follow-up showed repair of the periapical lesions on both roots. Conclusions. Results suggest that the apical limit of obturation seems to have no influence in the repair of periapical tissues in mandibular molars. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2011; 112: e48-e50)

Clinical management and subsequent healing of teeth with horizontal root fractures

Horizontal root fractures are uncommon, mainly occurring on the cervical and middle third of the root of permanent upper incisors. The diagnosis is essentially radiographic and requires different healing patterns, depending on some pre- and postinjury factors. The aim of this article was to report the clinical management and different healing types in three cases of horizontal root fractures on permanent dentition. In case 1, the pulp tissue was vital and no treatment was necessary. In case 2, a root canal treatment of the cervical fragment was necessary and in case 3, pulpal necrosis was verified and an apical surgery was performed.

Domestic objects and the taste epiphany - A resource for consumption methodology

The presentation of an aesthetic identity involves the accomplishment of a coherent, plausible narrative which links one's choices to desired characteristics of the self. As symbolic evidence of a person's taste, material culture is a vital component of a successful narrative. Via case studies of pivotal household objects, this paper uses face-to-face interview data as a way of investigating processes of aesthetic choice. Household objects are interpreted as material elements imbricated in the presentation of a socially plausible and internally consistent aesthetic self. Narrative analysis, and the concept of the epiphany-object, are proposed as useful ways of accounting for tastes in domestic material culture. Methodological questions of truth-telling and authenticity in the face-to-face context are considered, and the sociological problem of taste is scrutinized in light of ideas about social accountability and textual identity.

Parties, governments and pollsters: A new form of patronage?

In its first term, the Howard government hired Australasian Research Strategies (ARS), headed by pollster Mark Textor, to conduct market research for several Commonwealth departments and agencies. This was, the Labor Opposition claimed, a case of the Liberals handing jobs to their 'mates'. Textor played a key role in the Liberals' 1996 and 1998 federal election campaigns. However, Labor's attack rings hollow since in the 1980s the Hawke government similarly contracted Rod Cameron's ANOP to conduct opinion research for Commonwealth departments and agencies. At the time Cameron was Labor's strategic pollster and centrally involved in planning Labor election campaigns. On both sides of Australian politics, governments have begun to channel patronage towards their party's pollsters. In this research note, we suggest that this development cannot be explained as 'jobs for the boys'. Instead, this new form of patronage has its roots in the vital role that pollsters now play in guiding election campaigns, and in the commercial reality that Australian politics provides too little work to sustain specialist political pollsters. Parties in government now appear to utilise incumbency to sustain an ongoing relationship with the commercial polling organisations like ANOP and ARS to whom they will entrust much of the planning of their campaign for re-election.

Taking telehealth to the bush: lessons from north Queensland

Networking North Queensland (NNQ) was a two-year project to improve access to health services in rural and remote communities. The project involved email and Internet access in 61 communities, in a region almost three times the size of the UK. Videoconferencing equipment was also installed at 21 sites and a total of 197 h of videoconferencing was recorded at 10 of the remote sites over 12 months. As a result of the project, health consumers enjoyed improved access to medical, specialist, allied health and primary health services. In addition, health service providers had better access to reliable, up-to-date health-care information via intranet and Internet services. Consideration of local issues-local needs and existing resources-was vital to the achievements of the project. Community involvement and community access were also important factors in its success.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Conceptualising the virtual and the posthuman

This article aims to explore the relations between technology and the subject. With new media intensifying the provisionality of discursive structures and in turn embodied experiences, questions pertaining to virtuality have become vital, particularly since Western society's increasing reliance on technologies now permeates our everyday practices. While many theorists often resort to a reification of the subject when conceptualising the posthuman condition, this analysis will recover the notion of embodiment in order to avoid such technological determinism. Tracing this complexity in contemporary texts can be achieved through various means. Here, the focus will remain on how narrative frameworks can create new possibilities for understanding and interpreting shifting subjectivities in the digital age. To explore this, I shall provide an analysis of a contemporary film, Being John Malkovich, which has been chosen due to its unexpected success at the box office, indicating how finely attuned the film is to contemporary concerns.

Transformational leadership, corporate cultism and the spirituality paradigm: An unholy trinity in the workplace?

Leadership is a perennially popular topic in the academic and practitioner literature on management. In particular, the past twenty years have witnessed an explosive growth of interest in what has been termed 'transformational leadership' (henceforth, TL). The theory is closely linked to the growth in what has been defined as corporate culturism - an emphasis on the importance of cohereat cultures, as a means of securing competitive advantage. This article outlines the central components of TL theory, and subjects the concept to a critical analysis. In particular, similarities are identified between the components concerned and the characteristics of leadership practice in organizations generally defined as cults. This connection has been previously unremarked in the literature. These similarities are comprehensively reviewed. Trends towards what can be defined as corporate cultism in modem management practice are also discussed. We conclude that TL models are overly concerned with the achievement of corporate cohesion to the detriment of internal dissent Such dissent is a vital ingredient of effective decision-making. It is suggested that more inclusive and participatory models of the leadership process are required.

On the importance function in splitting simulation

The splitting method is a simulation technique for the estimation of very small probabilities. In this technique, the sample paths are split into multiple copies, at various stages in the simulation. Of vital importance to the efficiency of the method is the Importance Function (IF). This function governs the placement of the thresholds or surfaces at which the paths are split. We derive a characterisation of the optimal IF and show that for multi-dimensional models the natural choice for the IF is usually not optimal. We also show how nearly optimal splitting surfaces can be derived or simulated using reverse time analysis. Our numerical experiments illustrate that by using the optimal IF, one can obtain a significant improvement in simulation efficiency.

Indirect evidence of density-dependent population regulation in Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari : Ixodidae), an ectoparasite of reptiles

The extent to which density-dependent processes regulate natural populations is the subject of an ongoing debate. We contribute evidence to this debate showing that density-dependent processes influence the population dynamics of the ectoparasite Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari: Ixodidae), a tick species that infests reptiles in Australia. The first piece of evidence comes from an unusually long-term dataset on the distribution of ticks among individual hosts. If density-dependent processes are influencing either host mortality or vital rates of the parasite population, and those distributions can be approximated with negative binomial distributions, then general host-parasite models predict that the aggregation coefficient of the parasite distribution will increase with the average intensity of infections. We fit negative binomial distributions to the frequency distributions of ticks on hosts, and find that the estimated aggregation coefficient k increases with increasing average tick density. This pattern indirectly implies that one or more vital rates of the tick population must be changing with increasing tick density, because mortality rates of the tick's main host, the sleepy lizard, Tiliqua rugosa, are unaffected by changes in tick burdens. Our second piece of evidence is a re-analysis of experimental data on the attachment success of individual ticks to lizard hosts using generalized linear modelling. The probability of successful engorgement decreases with increasing numbers of ticks attached to a host. This is direct evidence of a density-dependent process that could lead to an increase in the aggregation coefficient of tick distributions described earlier. The population-scale increase in the aggregation coefficient is indirect evidence of a density-dependent process or processes sufficiently strong to produce a population-wide pattern, and thus also likely to influence population regulation. The direct observation of a density-dependent process is evidence of at least part of the responsible mechanism.

Use of a thermodilution catheter to measure core body temperature, central venous pressure and cardiac output during anaesthesia and surgery in the dog

The use of thermodilution and other methods of monitoring in dogs during surgery and critical care was evaluated. Six Greyhounds were anaesthetised and then instrumented by placing a thermodilution catheter into the pulmonary artery via the jugular vein. A catheter in the dorsal pedal artery also permitted direct measurement of arterial pressures. Core body temperature (degreesC) and central venous pressure (mmHg) were measured, while cardiac output (mL/min/kg) and mean arterial pressure (mmHg) were calculated. A mid-line surgical incision was performed and the physiological parameters were monitored for a total of two hours. All physiological parameters generally declined, although significant increases (P<0.05) were noted for cardiac output following surgical incision. Central venous pressure was maintained at approximately 0mmHg by controlling an infusion of sterile saline. Core body temperature decreased from 37.1+/-0.6degreesC (once instrumented) to 36.6+/-0.60degreesC (at the end of the study), despite warming using heating pads. Physiological parameters indicative of patient viability will generally decline during surgery without intervention. This study describes an approach that can be undertaken in veterinary hospitals to accurately monitor vital signs in surgical and critical care patients.

Transition to raloxifene with and without low-dose estrogen therapy in postmenopausal women: effects on serum lipids and fibrinogen - a pilot study

Objective To compare the effects of transferring from low-dose transdermal estrogen to raloxifene (RLX), with a phase of alternate-day RLX therapy with or without low-dose transdermal estrogen, on serum lipids and fibrinogen in postmenopausal women previously administered estrogen plus progestogen therapy. Methods Sixty postmenopausal women (mean age 55 years) were randomized to one of two treatment groups: RLX + low-dose transdermal estrogen (RLX + E) or RLX + placebo. The study consisted of four 8-week phases: phase I (all subjects low-dose transdermal estrogen 25 mug/day), phase II (double-blind RLX 60 mg every 2nd day in combination with either low-dose transdermal estrogen or placebo), phase III (all subjects RLX 60 mg every 2nd day + placebo) and phase IV (all subjects RLX 60 mg/day + placebo). Results No significant differences existed between groups for baseline measurements prior to phase I. In phase I, for all subjects combined, total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotem cholesterol both showed a significant increase (median increase of 0.2 mmol/l, p = 0.008 and 0.4 mmol/l, p < 0.001, respectively), while triglycerides decreased significantly (median decrease of 0.2 mmol/l, p < 0.001). For the primary analysis (phase II to phase IV), the mean change from baseline observations showed no significant differences between the therapy groups for serum lipids, fibrinogen, vital signs or weight. In the comparison phase (phase II), changes in serum lipids, fibrinogen, vital signs and weight were not significantly different between groups. Conclusion Gradual conversion to RLX from low-dose transdermal estrogen, with a phase of alternate-day RLX therapy with or without low-dose transdermal estrogen, does not have any effect on the serum lipid profile or fibrinogen level.

Editorial

The year 2003 marks the 30th anniversary of The Australian Journal of Indigenous Education (AJIE) and coincides with the re-launching of the journal as a peer reviewed research journal.Beginning life in 1973 as The Aboriginal Child at School, AJIE has played a vital role in raising awareness of educational issues for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples; fostering debate amongst researchers, government representatives and community groups; and sharing stories of success between both Indigenous and non- Indigenous practitioners positioned in the broad area of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander education. The dialogue which has taken place in AJIE over the past 30 years maps out the social, political and cultural history of Indigenous education in Australia, and draws attention to the shifting paradigms,problems and practical outcomes.