Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

The implementation of a guideline of care for patients with a Sengstaken-Blakemore tube in situ in a general intensive care unit using transitional change theory

The use of the Sengstaken–Blakemore tube as a life-saving treatment for bleeding oesophageal varices is slowly becoming the least preferred method possibly due to the potential complications associated with its placement. Nursing practice pertaining to the care of this patient group appears ad hoc and reliant on local knowledge and experience as opposed to recognised evidence of best practice. Therefore, this paper focuses on the application of Lewin's transitional change theory used to introduce a change in nursing practice with the application of a guideline to enhance the care of patients with a Sengstaken–Blakemore tube in situ within a general intensive care unit. This method identified some of the complexities surrounding the change process including the driving and restraining forces that must be harnessed and minimised in order for the adoption of change to be successful.

Evaluating leadership development using the Most Significant Change technique

Course evaluations are now a serious matter for universities trying to meet stakeholder needs and expectations, quality assurance, improvements and strategic decision making. Typically, students are invited to participate in surveys on how well the design and delivery aspects meet predetermined learning objectives, quality of teaching, and the types of improvements needed for future deliveries. We used the Most Significant Change technique to gather data on the impact of a leadership course on 18 Pacific Islanders who completed a Master of Education (Educational Leadership). Participants' views highlighted impacts that were of significance to the students and their workplaces. The findings demonstrate that the Most Significant Change technique offers a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of leadership development courses.

Pockets of Change : Adaptation and Cultural Transition

Pockets of Change collects fourteen essays that address issues of cultural adaptation and transition in the Arts. Based on insights into a range of primary texts and cultural practices—from visual art to film, from literature to theatre—these essays investigate the ways in which traditions, art-forms, cultures and ethics adapt to challenge established boundaries.

Ageing in suburbia : designing for demographic change in Australia and New Zealand

In the next half-century, Australia's population of people aged over 65 is set to almost double. As a consequence, there is an urgent need in both Australia and New Zealand, where older people value their independence, for housing that fully supports them in their own suburban homes. With only a handful of models in place, Mark Taylor, Professor of Architecture at the University of Newcastle, Australia, and Laurie Buys, a Professor in the School of Design at Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, have tracked down some promising precedents for suburban living in adapted homes and within community-based shared housing.

Temporal and functional changes in glycosaminoglycan expression during osteogenesis

Heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) are complex and labile macromolecular moieties on the surfaces of cells that control the activities of a range of extracellular proteins, particularly those driving growth and regeneration. Here, we examine the biosynthesis of heparan sulfate (HS) sugars produced by cultured MC3T3-E1 mouse calvarial pre-osteoblast cells in order to explore the idea that changes in HS activity in turn drive phenotypic development during osteogenesis. Cells grown for 5 days under proliferating conditions were compared to cells grown for 20 days under mineralizing conditions with respect to their phenotype, the forms of HS core protein produced, and their HS sulfotransferase biosynthetic enzyme levels. RQ-PCR data was supported by the results from the purification of day 5 and day 20 HS forms by anionic exchange chromatography. The data show that cells in active growth phases produce more complex forms of sugar than cells that have become relatively quiescent during active mineralization, and that these in turn can differentially influence rates of cell growth when added exogenously back to preosteoblasts.

Climate change and children’s health : a call for research on what works to protect children

Climate change is affecting and will increasingly influence human health and wellbeing. Children are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. An extensive literature review regarding the impact of climate change on children’s health was conducted in April 2012 by searching electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science, as well as relevant websites, such as IPCC and WHO. Climate change affects children’s health through increased air pollution, more weather-related disasters, more frequent and intense heat waves, decreased water quality and quantity, food shortage and greater exposure to toxicants. As a result, children experience greater risk of mental disorders, malnutrition, infectious diseases, allergic diseases and respiratory diseases. Mitigation measures like reducing carbon pollution emissions, and adaptation measures such as early warning systems and post-disaster counseling are strongly needed. Future health research directions should focus on: (1) identifying whether climate change impacts on children will be modified by gender, age and socioeconomic status; (2) refining outcome measures of children’s vulnerability to climate change; (3) projecting children’s disease burden under climate change scenarios; (4) exploring children’s disease burden related to climate change in low-income countries, and ; (5) identifying the most cost-effective mitigation and adaptation actions from a children’s health perspective.

Mid-Holocene sea-level and coral reef demise : U-Th dating of subfossil corals in Moreton Bay, Australia

It is increasingly apparent that sea-level data (e.g. microfossil transfer functions, dated coral microatolls and direct observations from satellite and tidal gauges) vary temporally and spatially at regional to local scales, thus limiting our ability to model future sea-level rise for many regions. Understanding sealevel response at ‘far-field’ locations at regional scales is fundamental for formulating more relevant sea-level rise susceptibility models within these regions under future global change projections. Fossil corals and reefs in particular are valuable tools for reconstructing past sea levels and possible environmental phase shifts beyond the temporal constraints of instrumental records. This study used abundant surface geochronological data based on in situ subfossil corals and precise elevation surveys to determine previous sea level in Moreton Bay, eastern Australia, a far-field site. A total of 64 U-Th dates show that relative sea level was at least 1.1 m above modern lowest astronomical tide (LAT) from at least ˜6600 cal. yr BP. Furthermore, a rapid synchronous demise in coral reef growth occurred in Moreton Bay ˜5800 cal. yr BP, coinciding with reported reef hiatus periods in other areas around the Indo-Pacific region. Evaluating past reef growth patterns and phases allows for a better interpretation of anthropogenic forcing versus natural environmental/climatic cycles that effect reef formation and demise at all scales and may allow better prediction of reef response to future global change.

Recruiting career-change professionals as teachers: the challenge of socialization into teaching

In many countries there is a shortage of quality teachers in areas of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). One solution has been to encourage mid-career professionals in the area of STEM to become school teachers. The transition of mid-career professionals to science and mathematics teaching in schools is thus becoming a common phenomenon. The assumption exists that their experiences and enthusiasm for their subject matter will inspire more students to achieve greater outcomes in school and to pursue careers in the sciences. Although the experiences of beginning teachers have been extensively studied for over half a century, there has been little research on career-change teachers and the particular challenges that they face in becoming school teachers. These career-changers have constructed professional identities and are accustomed to working within a culture of collaboration and inquiry. In contrast school cultures are quite different and often teaching is a lonely solitary affair with little opportunity for collegial relationships aimed at knowledge building in the context of teaching. This research was a longitudinal study that followed 17 teachers from the commencement of teaching. Most of these teachers left professional careers to become teachers. Seven remained in teaching after three years.

Tracking spatio temporal movement of human in terms of space utilization using media access control address data

Using Media-Access-Control (MAC) address for data collection and tracking is a capable and cost effective approach as the traditional ways such as surveys and video surveillance have numerous drawbacks and limitations. Positioning cell-phones by Global System for Mobile communication was considered an attack on people's privacy. MAC addresses just keep a unique log of a WiFi or Bluetooth enabled device for connecting to another device that has not potential privacy infringements. This paper presents the use of MAC address data collection approach for analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of human in terms of shared space utilization. This paper firstly discuses the critical challenges and key benefits of MAC address data as a tracking technology for monitoring human movement. Here, proximity-based MAC address tracking is postulated as an effective methodology for analysing the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of human movements at shared zones such as lounge and office areas. A case study of university staff lounge area is described in detail and results indicates a significant added value of the methodology for human movement tracking. By analysis of MAC address data in the study area, clear statistics such as staff’s utilisation frequency, utilisation peak periods, and staff time spent is obtained. The analyses also reveal staff’s socialising profiles in terms of group and solo gathering. The paper is concluded with a discussion on why MAC address tracking offers significant advantages for tracking human behaviour in terms of shared space utilisation with respect to other and more prominent technologies, and outlines some of its remaining deficiencies.

Eutrophication weakens stabilizing effects of diversity in natural grasslands

Studies of experimental grassland communities have demonstrated that plant diversity can stabilize productivity through species asynchrony, in which decreases in the biomass of some species are compensated for by increases in others. However, it remains unknown whether these findings are relevant to natural ecosystems, especially those for which species diversity is threatened by anthropogenic global change. Here we analyse diversity-stability relationships from 41 grasslands on five continents and examine how these relationships are affected by chronic fertilization, one of the strongest drivers of species loss globally. Unmanipulated communities with more species had greater species asynchrony, resulting in more stable biomass production, generalizing a result from biodiversity experiments to real-world grasslands. However, fertilization weakened the positive effect of diversity on stability. Contrary to expectations, this was not due to species loss after eutrophication but rather to an increase in the temporal variation of productivity in combination with a decrease in species asynchrony in diverse communities. Our results demonstrate separate and synergistic effects of diversity and eutrophication on stability, emphasizing the need to understand how drivers of global change interactively affect the reliable provisioning of ecosystem services in real-world systems.

Climate change and financial regulation : challenges for the financial sector post the Global Financial Crisis

Regulation has played a significant role in shaping the financial services sector in Australia over the past few decades. Regulatory changes have included the establishment of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), floating the Australian dollar, allowing foreign financial institutions to operate domestically, the introduction of the superannuation guarantee charge, and the removal of interest rate controls. As the economy emerges from the worst financial crisis since the great depression, a new force of change that is recognised as one of the most significant sources of risk and opportunity facing the business community in the foreseeable future is that of climate change. Climate change is expected to be a significant change agent in the financial services sector as extreme weather patterns, sea level rises, and atmospheric changes impact on asset values (both investment and lending), project finance, and risk products. The financial services industry will be particularly affected by these developments, both as a provider of financial products (capital, credit, investment, advice, and insurance), and also through its powerful influence on the economy in terms of capital allocation. In addition, industry constituents will be heavily impacted by government regulation in this area (reporting, emissions trading and environmental policies), with respect to their own business practices and also those of their clients. This study reports the results of interviews conducted with senior members of the finance sector working in the sustainability area to gauge their perceptions of the challenges facing the sector with respect to climate change. Our results confirm that that regulatory intervention will be critical to climate change response gaining traction and momentum. In particular, regulatory certainty will promote engagement, particularly in relation to the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), with other developments needed in terms of information disclosure, performance and remuneration, and incentive programs. Accordingly, the significant potential risks and opportunities that climate change presents to the sector, and the broader economy, will in part be managed/realised only if a swift and significant regulatory response is achieved.

A participatory framework for researching and evaluating communication for development and social change

The growing dominance of project planning cycles and results-based management in development over the past 20 years has significant implications for the effective evaluation of communication for development and social change and the sustainability of these processes. These approaches to development and evaluation usually give priority to the linear, logical framework (or log frame) approach promoted by many development institutions. This tends to emphasize upward accountability approaches to development and its evaluation, so that development is driven by exogenous rather than endogenous models of development and social change. Such approaches are underpinned by ideas of preplanning, and predetermination of what successful out -comes look like. In this way, outcomes of complex interventions tend to be reduced to simple, cause-effect processes and the categorization of things, including people (Chambers and Pettit 2004; Eyben 2011). This runs counter to communication for development approaches, which prioritize engagement, relationships, empowerment and dialogue as important components for positive social change.

Fostering rapid transitions to education for sustainable development through a whole-system approach to curriculum and organizational change

Despite decades of attempts to embed sustainability within higher education, literature clearly suggests that highly regulated disciplines such as engineering have been relatively slow to incorporate sustainability knowledge and skill areas, and are generally poorly prepared to do so. With current efforts, it is plausible that sustainability could take another two decades to be embedded within the curriculum. Within this context, this paper presents a whole system approach to implement systematic, intentional and timely curriculum renewal that is responsive to emerging challenges and opportunities, encompassing curriculum and organizational change. The paper begins by considering the evolution of curriculum renewal processes, documenting a number of whole system considerations that have been empirically distilled from literature, case studies, pilot trials, and a series of workshops with built environment educators from around the world over the last decade. The paper outlines a whole-of-institution curriculum renewal approach to embedding sustainability knowledge and skills within the DNA of the institutional offerings. The paper concludes with a discussion of research and practice implications for the field of education research, within and beyond higher education.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.