Sensitivity of Bolivian seasonally-dry tropical forest to precipitation and temperature changes over glacial-interglacial timescales

We used fossil pollen to investigate the response of the eastern Chiquitano seasonally-dry tropical forest (SDTF), lowland Bolivia, to high-amplitude climate change associated with glacial–interglacial cycles. Changes in the structure, composition and diversity of the past vegetation are compared with palaeoclimate data previously reconstructed from the same record, and these results shed light on the biogeographic history of today’s highly disjunct blocks of SDTF across South America. We demonstrate that lower glacial temperatures limited tropical forest in the Chiquitanía region, and suggest that SDTF was absent or restricted at latitudes below 17°S, the proposed location of the majority of the hypothesized ‘Pleistocene dry forest arc’ (PDFA). At 19500 yrs b.p., warming supported the establishment of a floristically-distinct SDTF, which showed little change throughout the glacial–Holocene transition, despite a shift to significantly wetter conditions beginning ca. 12500–12200 yrs b.p. Anadenanthera colubrina, a key SDTF taxon, arrived at 10000 yrs b.p., which coincides with the onset of drought associated with an extended dry season. Lasting until 3000 yrs b.p., Holocene drought caused a floristic shift to more drought-tolerant taxa and a reduction in α-diversity (shown by declining palynological richness), but closed-canopy forest was maintained throughout. In contrast to the PDFA, the modern distribution of SDTF most likely represents the greatest spatial coverage of these forests in southern South America since glacial times. We find that temperature is a key climatic control upon the distribution of lowland South American SDTF over glacial-interglacial timescales, and seasonality of rainfall exerts a strong control on their floristic composition.

Differentiation between Neotropical rainforest, dry forest and savannah ecosystems by their modern pollen spectra and implications for the fossil pollen record

Accurate differentiation between tropical forest and savannah ecosystems in the fossil pollen record is hampered by the combination of: i) poor taxonomic resolution in pollen identification, and ii) the high species diversity of many lowland tropical families, i.e. with many different growth forms living in numerous environmental settings. These barriers to interpreting the fossil record hinder our understanding of the past distributions of different Neotropical ecosystems and consequently cloud our knowledge of past climatic, biodiversity and carbon storage patterns. Modern pollen studies facilitate an improved understanding of how ecosystems are represented by the pollen their plants produce and therefore aid interpretation of fossil pollen records. To understand how to differentiate ecosystems palynologically, it is essential that a consistent sampling method is used across ecosystems. However, to date, modern pollen studies from tropical South America have employed a variety of methodologies (e.g. pollen traps, moss polsters, soil samples). In this paper, we present the first modern pollen study from the Neotropics to examine the modern pollen rain from moist evergreen tropical forest (METF), semi-deciduous dry tropical forest (SDTF) and wooded savannah (cerradão) using a consistent sampling methodology (pollen traps). Pollen rain was sampled annually in September for the years 1999–2001 from within permanent vegetation study plots in, or near, the Noel Kempff Mercado National Park (NKMNP), Bolivia. Comparison of the modern pollen rain within these plots with detailed floristic inventories allowed estimates of the relative pollen productivity and dispersal for individual taxa to be made (% pollen/% vegetation or ‘p/v’). The applicability of these data to interpreting fossil records from lake sediments was then explored by comparison with pollen assemblages obtained from five lake surface samples.

Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18000 radiocarbon years

The biomisation method is used to reconstruct Latin American vegetation at 6000±500 and 18 000±1000 radiocarbon years before present (14C yr BP) from pollen data. Tests using modern pollen data from 381 samples derived from 287 locations broadly reproduce potential natural vegetation. The strong temperature gradient associated with the Andes is recorded by a transition from high altitude cool grass/shrubland and cool mixed forest to mid-altitude cool temperate rain forest, to tropical dry, seasonal and rain forest at low altitudes. Reconstructed biomes from a number of sites do not match the potential vegetation due to local factors such as human impact, methodological artefacts and mechanisms of pollen representivity of the parent vegetation.

Implementing REDD through community-based forest management: lessons from Tanzania

REDD (reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation) aims to slow carbon releases caused by forest disturbance by making payments conditional on forest quality over time. Like earlier policies to slow deforestation, REDD must change the behaviour of forest degrading actors. Broadly, it can be implemented with payments to forest users in exchange for improved forest management, thus creating incentives; through payments for enforcement, thus creating disincentives; or through addressing external drivers such as urban charcoal demand. In Tanzania, community-based forest management (CBFM), a form of participatory forest management, was chosen by the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group, a local NGO, as a model for implementing REDD pilot programmes. Payments are made to villages that have the rights to forest carbon. In exchange, the villages must demonstrably reduce deforestation at the village level. In this paper, using this pilot programme as a case study, combined with a review of the literature, we provide insights for REDD implementation in sub-Saharan Africa. We pay particular attention to leakage, monitoring and enforcement. We suggest that implementing REDD through CBFM-type structures can create appropriate incentives and behaviour change when the recipients of the REDD funds are also the key drivers of forest change. When external forces drive forest change, however, REDD through CBFM-type structures becomes an enforcement programme with local communities rather than government agencies being responsible for the enforcement. That structure imposes costs on local communities, whose local authority limits the ability to address leakage outside the particular REDD village.

Exploring socioeconomic impacts of forest based mitigation projects: Lessons from Brazil and Bolivia

This paper aims to contribute new insights globally and regionally on how carbon forest mitigation contributes to sustainable development in South America. Carbon finance has emerged as a potential policy option to tackling global climate change, degradation of forests, and social development in poor countries. This paper focuses on evaluating the socioeconomic impacts of a set of forest based mitigation pilot projects that emerged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper reviews research conducted in 2001–2002, drawing from empirical data from four pilot projects, derived from qualitative stakeholder interviews, and complemented by policy documents and literature. Of the four projects studied three are located in frontier areas, where there are considerable pressures for conversion of standing forest to agriculture. In this sense, forest mitigation projects have a substantial role to play in the region. Findings suggest however, that all four projects have experienced cumbersome implementation processes specifically, due to weak social objectives, poor communication, as well as time constraints. In three out of four cases, stakeholders highlighted limited local acceptance at the implementation stages. In the light of these findings, we discuss opportunities for implementation of future forest based mitigation projects in the land use sector.

Small-scale forest carbon projects: Adapting CDM to low-income communities

Given the decision to include small-scale sinks projects implemented by low-income communities in the clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, the paper explores some of the basic governance conditions that such carbon forestry projects will have to meet if they are to be successfully put in practice. To date there are no validated small-scale sinks projects and investors have shown little interest in financing such projects, possibly to due to the risks and uncertainties associated with sinks projects. Some suggest however, that carbon has the potential to become a serious commodity on the world market, thus governance over ownership, rights and responsibilities merit discussion. Drawing on the interdisciplinary development, as well as from the literature on livelihoods and democratic decentralization in forestry, the paper explores how to adapt forest carbon projects to the realities encountered in the local context. It also highlights the importance of capitalizing on synergies with other rural development strategies, ensuring stakeholder participation by working with accountable, representative local organizations, and creating flexible and adaptive project designs.

The role of sky conditions on gross primary production in a mixed deciduous forest

The role of different sky conditions on diffuse PAR fraction (ϕ), air temperature (Ta), vapor pressure deficit (vpd) and GPP in a deciduous forest is investigated using eddy covariance observations of CO2 fluxes and radiometer and ceilometer observations of sky and PAR conditions on hourly and growing season timescales. Maximum GPP response occurred under moderate to high PAR and ϕ and low vpd. Light response models using a rectangular hyperbola showed a positive linear relation between ϕ and effective quantum efficiency (α = 0.023ϕ + 0.012, r2 = 0.994). Since PAR and ϕ are negatively correlated, there is a tradeoff between the greater use efficiency of diffuse light and lower vpd and the associated decrease in total PAR available for photosynthesis. To a lesser extent, light response was also modified by vpd and Ta. The net effect of these and their relation with sky conditions helped enhance light response under sky conditions that produced higher ϕ. Six sky conditions were classified from cloud frequency and ϕ data: optically thick clouds, optically thin clouds, mixed sky (partial clouds within hour), high, medium and low optical aerosol. The frequency and light responses of each sky condition for the growing season were used to predict the role of changing sky conditions on annual GPP. The net effect of increasing frequency of thick clouds is to decrease GPP, changing low aerosol conditions has negligible effect. Increases in the other sky conditions all lead to gains in GPP. Sky conditions that enhance intermediate levels of ϕ, such as thin or scattered clouds or higher aerosol concentrations from volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic emissions, will have a positive outcome on annual GPP, while an increase in cloud cover will have a negative impact. Due to the ϕ/PAR tradeoff and since GPP response to changes in individual sky conditions differ in sign and magnitude, the net response of ecosystem GPP to future sky conditions is non-linear and tends toward moderation of change.

Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south-central Indiana, USA

Observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its biophysical drivers have been collected at the AmeriFlux site in the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, USA since 1998. Thus, this is one of the few deciduous forest sites in the world, where a decadal analysis on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) trends is possible. Despite the large interannual variability in NEP, the observations show a significant increase in forest productivity over the past 10 years (by an annual increment of about 10 g C m−2 yr−1). There is evidence that this trend can be explained by longer vegetative seasons, caused by extension of the vegetative activity in the fall. Both phenological and flux observations indicate that the vegetative season extended later in the fall with an increase in length of about 3 days yr−1 for the past 10 years. However, these changes are responsible for only 50% of the total annual gain in forest productivity in the past decade. A negative trend in air and soil temperature during the winter months may explain an equivalent increase in NEP through a decrease in ecosystem respiration.

An assessment of observed vertical flux divergence in long-term eddy-covariance measurements over two Midwestern forest ecosystems

Vertical divergence of CO2 fluxes is observed over two Midwestern AmeriFlux forest sites. The differences in ensemble averaged hourly CO2 fluxes measured at two heights above canopy are relatively small (0.2–0.5 μmol m−2 s−1), but they are the major contributors to differences (76–256 g C m−2 or 41.8–50.6%) in estimated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in 2001. A friction velocity criterion is used in these estimates but mean flow advection is not accounted for. This study examines the effects of coordinate rotation, averaging time period, sampling frequency and co-spectral correction on CO2 fluxes measured at a single height, and on vertical flux differences measured between two heights. Both the offset in measured vertical velocity and the downflow/upflow caused by supporting tower structures in upwind directions lead to systematic over- or under-estimates of fluxes measured at a single height. An offset of 1 cm s−1 and an upflow/downflow of 1° lead to 1% and 5.6% differences in momentum fluxes and nighttime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes, respectively, but only 0.5% and 2.8% differences in daytime sensible heat and CO2 fluxes. The sign and magnitude of both offset and upflow/downflow angle vary between sonic anemometers at two measurement heights. This introduces a systematic and large bias in vertical flux differences if these effects are not corrected in the coordinate rotation. A 1 h averaging time period is shown to be appropriate for the two sites. In the daytime, the absolute magnitudes of co-spectra decrease with height in the natural frequencies of 0.02–0.1 Hz but increase in the lower frequencies (<0.01 Hz). Thus, air motions in these two frequency ranges counteract each other in determining vertical flux differences, whose magnitude and sign vary with averaging time period. At night, co-spectral densities of CO2 are more positive at the higher levels of both sites in the frequency range of 0.03–0.4 Hz and this vertical increase is also shown at most frequencies lower than 0.03 Hz. Differences in co-spectral corrections at the two heights lead to a positive shift in vertical CO2 flux differences throughout the day at both sites. At night, the vertical CO2 flux differences between two measurement heights are 20–30% and 40–60% of co-spectral corrected CO2 fluxes measured at the lower levels of the two sites, respectively. Vertical differences of CO2 flux are relatively small in the daytime. Vertical differences in estimated mean vertical advection of CO2 between the two measurement heights generally do not improve the closure of the 1D (vertical) CO2 budget in the air layer between the two measurement heights. This may imply the significance of horizontal advection. However, a reliable assessment of mean advection contributions in annual NEE estimate at these two AmeriFlux sites is currently an unsolved problem.

Nocturnal cooling below a forest canopy: Model and evaluation

Nocturnal cooling of air within a forest canopy and the resulting temperature profile may drive local thermally driven motions, such as drainage flows, which are believed to impact measurements of ecosystem–atmosphere exchange. To model such flows, it is necessary to accurately predict the rate of cooling. Cooling occurs primarily due to radiative heat loss. However, much of the radiative loss occurs at the surface of canopy elements (leaves, branches, and boles of trees), while radiative divergence in the canopy air space is small due to high transmissivity of air. Furthermore, sensible heat exchange between the canopy elements and the air space is slow relative to radiative fluxes. Therefore, canopy elements initially cool much more quickly than the canopy air space after the switch from radiative gain during the day to radiative loss during the night. Thus in modeling air cooling within a canopy, it is not appropriate to neglect the storage change of heat in the canopy elements or even to assume equal rates of cooling of the canopy air and canopy elements. Here a simple parameterization of radiatively driven cooling of air within the canopy is presented, which accounts implicitly for radiative cooling of the canopy volume, heat storage in the canopy elements, and heat transfer between the canopy elements and the air. Simulations using this parameterization are compared to temperature data from the Morgan–Monroe State Forest (IN, USA) FLUXNET site. While the model does not perfectly reproduce the measured rates of cooling, particularly near the top of the canopy, the simulated cooling rates are of the correct order of magnitude.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.

Evaluation of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of northern hemisphere extratropical climates in the mid-Holocene

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

Pollen-based reconstructions of biome distributions for Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) at 0,6000 and 18,000 14C yr B.P.

Aim  This paper documents reconstructions of the vegetation patterns in Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) in the mid-Holocene and at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Methods  Vegetation patterns were reconstructed from pollen data using an objective biomization scheme based on plant functional types. The biomization scheme was first tested using 535 modern pollen samples from 377 sites, and then applied unchanged to fossil pollen samples dating to 6000 ± 500 or 18,000 ± 1000 14C yr bp. Results  1. Tests using surface pollen sample sites showed that the biomization scheme is capable of reproducing the modern broad-scale patterns of vegetation distribution. The north–south gradient in temperature, reflected in transitions from cool evergreen needleleaf forest in the extreme south through temperate rain forest or wet sclerophyll forest (WSFW) and into tropical forests, is well reconstructed. The transitions from xerophytic through sclerophyll woodlands and open forests to closed-canopy forests, which reflect the gradient in plant available moisture from the continental interior towards the coast, are reconstructed with less geographical precision but nevertheless the broad-scale pattern emerges. 2. Differences between the modern and mid-Holocene vegetation patterns in mainland Australia are comparatively small and reflect changes in moisture availability rather than temperature. In south-eastern Australia some sites show a shift towards more moisture-stressed vegetation in the mid-Holocene with xerophytic woods/scrub and temperate sclerophyll woodland and shrubland at sites characterized today by WSFW or warm-temperate rain forest (WTRF). However, sites in the Snowy Mountains, on the Southern Tablelands and east of the Great Dividing Range have more moisture-demanding vegetation in the mid-Holocene than today. South-western Australia was slightly drier than today. The single site in north-western Australia also shows conditions drier than today in the mid-Holocene. Changes in the tropics are also comparatively small, but the presence of WTRF and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the mid-Holocene, in sites occupied today by cool-temperate rain forest, indicate warmer conditions. 3. Expansion of xerophytic vegetation in the south and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the north indicate drier conditions across mainland Australia at the LGM. None of these changes are informative about the degree of cooling. However the evidence from the tropics, showing lowering of the treeline and forest belts, indicates that conditions were between 1 and 9 °C (depending on elevation) colder. The encroachment of tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland into lowland evergreen broadleaf forest implies greater aridity. Main conclusions  This study provides the first continental-scale reconstruction of mid-Holocene and LGM vegetation patterns from Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) using an objective biomization scheme. These data will provide a benchmark for evaluation of palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations.

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO2 changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought-tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen-based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO2 concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought-tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low-latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO2 concentration on C3 photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO2 concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO2 concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO2 effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial-interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.

Palaeovegetation (Communications arising): diversity of temperate plants in east Asia

The exceptionally broad species diversity of vascular plant genera in east Asian temperate forests, compared with their sister taxa in North America, has been attributed to the greater climatic diversity of east Asia, combined with opportunities for allopatric speciation afforded by repeated fragmentation and coalescence of populations through Late Cenozoic ice-age cycles1. According to Qian and Ricklefs1, these opportunities occurred in east Asia because temperate forests extended across the continental shelf to link populations in China, Korea and Japan during glacial periods, whereas higher sea levels during interglacial periods isolated these regions and warmer temperatures restricted temperate taxa to disjunct refuges. However, palaeovegetation data from east Asia2, 3, 4, 5, 6 show that temperate forests were considerably less extensive than today during the Last Glacial Maximum, calling into question the coalescence of tree populations required by the hypothesis of Qian and Ricklefs1.