Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

Introduction: perspectives for economically important wild species and neglected crops in the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean region is one of the major centres of origin and diversification of cultivated plants and many crop wild relatives are found there. In addition, many native species are still widely harvested from the wild for food, medicine and other uses and some of these have potential for development as alternative crop especially in marginal zones. While there have been several recent initiatives that address the cataloguing and conservation of these species, such as the Network on Identification, Conservation and Use of Wild Plants in the Mediterranean Region (MEDUSA and the Bioversity International (IPGRI) studies on Underutilized Mediterranean Species (VMS), no comprehensive assessment has yet been made and little work undertaken on their agricultural potential. It has been confidently predicted that consequences of global change in the Mediterranean region - population movements and migrations, changes in disturbance regimes, and climate change - will be serious. One the one hand, this will affect the survival prospects of many of these underutilized species and on the other hand it will enhance their importance as the source of potential new crop germplasm. The conservation and availability of genetic diversity of both crops and underutilized species is essential if we are to be able to meet the increasing demand for food and other crops that will be adapted to the new ecoclimatic envelopes that will develop in the region as a consequence of global change. The rapid rate of climatic and other change that is expected adds urgency to the task of assessing, conserving and sustainably using this rich diversity of wild species of economic value in the region but new strategies will be need to be developed to achieve this. The Mediterranean region has the potential of becoming a major source of new crop development in the coming decades.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sex differences in common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus) in response to an unfamiliar food task

There is a growing body of information on sex differences In callitrichid behaviour that includes the animals' performance in food tasks. For example, both reproductive and non-reproductive adult females have been found to be more successful than adult males in solving food tasks. In this study ten adult male and ten adult female common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus), housed individually, were tested with an unfamiliar task that involved the extraction of an embedded food. The task was to open a plastic canister that contained a raisin; the open end was covered with parchment paper. Each marmoset was given 15 trials in three blocks of 5 consecutive days. We measured the latency for each animal to open the lid and get the raisin-by one of five strategies that spontaneously emerged. The females learned the task faster and more efficiently than males; all the females opened the canister on day 1, for instance, in contrast to seven of the males on the same day. Females also progressively decreased the time that they took to open the tube. The final latency on day 15, for instance, was significantly shorter for the females. These results are consistent with relevant literature for callitrichids and cannot be accounted for in terms of differences in mental abilities, strength, hand morphology, or energy requirements. Further investigation is necessary to clarify the reasons for these differences.

A demonstration of attentional bias, using a novel dual task paradigm, towards clinically salient material in recovering alcohol abuse patients?

Background. This study examined whether alcohol abuse patients are characterized either by enhanced schematic processing of alcohol related cues or by an attentional bias towards the processing of alcohol cues. Method. Abstinent alcohol abusers (N = 25) and non-clinical control participants (N = 24) performed a dual task paradigm in which they had to make an odd/even decision to a centrally presented number while performing a peripherally presented lexical decision task. Stimuli on the lexical decision task comprised alcohol words, neutral words and non-words. In addition, participants completed an incidental recall task for the words presented in the lexical decision task. Results. It was found that, in the presence of alcohol related words, the performance of patients on the odd/even decision task was poorer than in the presence of other stimului. In addition, patients displayed slower lexical decision times for alcohol related words. Both groups displayed better recall for alcohol words than for other stimuli. Conclusions. These results are interpreted as supporting neither model of drug cravings. Rather, it is proposed that, in the presence of alcohol stimuli, alcohol abuse patients display a breakdown in the ability to focus attention.

Redintegration and lexicality effects in children: do they depend upon the demands of the memory task?

The effect of long-term knowledge upon performance in short-term memory tasks was examined for children from 5 to 10 years of age. The emergence of a lexicality effect, in which familiar words were recalled more accurately than unfamiliar words, was found to depend upon the nature of the memory task. Lexicality effects were interpreted as reflecting the use of redintegration, or reconstruction processes, in short-term memory. Redintegration increased with age for tasks requiring spoken item recall and decreased with age when position information but not naming was required. In a second experiment, redintegration was found in a recognition task when some of the foils rhymed with the target. Older children were able to profit from a rhyming foil, whereas younger children were confused by it, suggesting that the older children make use of sublexical phonological information in reconstructing the target. It was proposed that redintegrative processes in their mature form support the reconstruction of detailed phonological knowledge of words.

The role of schizotypy and creativity in a group problem-solving task

The well-studied link between psychotic traits and creativity is a subject of much debate. The present study investigated the extent to which schizotypic personality traits - as measured by O-LIFE (Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences) - equip healthy individuals to engage as groups in everyday tasks. From a sample of 69 students, eight groups of four participants - comprised of high, medium, or low-schizotypy individuals - were assembled to work as a team to complete a creative problem-solving task. Predictably, high scorers on the O-LIFE formulated a greater number of strategies to solve the task, indicative of creative divergent thinking. However, for task success (as measured by time taken to complete the problem) an inverted U shaped pattern emerged, whereby high and low-schizotypy groups were consistently faster than medium schizotypy groups. Intriguing data emerged concerning leadership within the groups, and other tangential findings relating to anxiety, competition and motivation were explored. These findings challenge the traditional cliche that psychotic personality traits are linearly related to creative performance, and suggest that the nature of the problem determines which thinking styles are optimally equipped to solve it. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of postnatal depression on mother-infant interaction, infant response to the still-face perturbation, and performance on an instrumental learning task

A representative community sample of primiparous depressed women and a nondepressed control group were assessed while in interaction with their infants at 2 months postpartum. At 3 months, infants were assessed on the Still-face perturbation of face to face interaction, and a subsample completed an Instrumental Learning paradigm. Compared to nondepressed women, depressed mothers' interactions were both less contingent and less affectively attuned to infant behavior. Postnatal depression did not adversely affect the infant's performance in either the Still-face perturbation or the Instrumental Learning assessment. Maternal responsiveness in interactions at 2 months predicted the infant's performance in the Instrumental Learning assessment but not in the Still-face perturbation. The implications of these findings for theories of infant cognitive and emotional development are discussed.

Tests of syntactic comprehension in aphasia: an investigation of task effects

Background: Consistency of performance across tasks that assess syntactic comprehension in aphasia has clinical and theoretical relevance. In this paper we add to the relatively sparse previous work on how sentence comprehension abilities are influenced by the nature of the assessment task. Aims: Our aims are: (1) to compare linguistic performance across sentence-picture matching, enactment, and truth-value judgement tasks; (2) to investigate the impact of pictorial stimuli on syntactic comprehension. Methods Procedures: We tested a group of 10 aphasic speakers (3 with fluent and 7 with non-fluent aphasia) in three tasks (Experiment 1): (i) sentence-picture matching with four pictures, (ii) sentence-picture matching with two pictures, and (iii) enactment. A further task of truth-value judgement was given to a subgroup of those speakers (n=5, Experiment 2). Similar sentence types across all tasks were used and included canonical (actives, subject clefts) and non-canonical (passives, object clefts) sentences. We undertook two types of analyses: (a) we compared canonical and non-canonical sentences in each task; (b) we compared performance between (i) actives and passives, (ii) subject and object clefts in each task. We examined the results of all participants as a group and as case-series. Outcomes Results: Several task effects emerged. Overall, the two-picture sentence-picture matching and enactment tasks were more discriminating than the four-picture condition. Group performance in the truth-value judgement task was similar to two-picture sentence-picture matching and enactment. At the individual level performance across tasks contrasted to some group results. Conclusions: Our findings revealed task effects across participants. We discuss reasons that could explain the diverse profiles of performance and the implications for clinical practice.

The BOLD response during Stroop task-like inhibition paradigms: effects of task difficulty and task-relevant modality

Previous studies of the Stroop task propose two key mediators: the prefrontal and cingulate cortices but hints exist of functional specialization within these regions. This study aimed to examine the effect of task modality upon the prefrontal and cingulate response by examining the response to colour, number, and shape Stroop tasks whilst BOLD fMRI images were acquired on a Siemens 3 T MRI scanner. Behavioural analyses indicated facilitation and interference effects and a noticeable effect of task difficulty. Some modular effects of modality were observed in the prefrontal cortex that survived exclusion of task difficulty related activations. No effect of task-relevant information was observed in the anterior cingulate. Future comparisons of the mediation of selective attention need to consider the effects of task context and task difficulty. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.