Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Exploring privacy for ubiquitous computing: Tools, methods and experiments

Ubiquitous computing is about making computers and computerized artefacts a pervasive part of our everyday lifes, bringing more and more activities into the realm of information. The computationalization, informationalization of everyday activities increases not only our reach, efficiency and capabilities but also the amount and kinds of data gathered about us and our activities. In this thesis, I explore how information systems can be constructed so that they handle this personal data in a reasonable manner. The thesis provides two kinds of results: on one hand, tools and methods for both the construction as well as the evaluation of ubiquitous and mobile systems---on the other hand an evaluation of the privacy aspects of a ubiquitous social awareness system. The work emphasises real-world experiments as the most important way to study privacy. Additionally, the state of current information systems as regards data protection is studied. The tools and methods in this thesis consist of three distinct contributions. An algorithm for locationing in cellular networks is proposed that does not require the location information to be revealed beyond the user's terminal. A prototyping platform for the creation of context-aware ubiquitous applications called ContextPhone is described and released as open source. Finally, a set of methodological findings for the use of smartphones in social scientific field research is reported. A central contribution of this thesis are the pragmatic tools that allow other researchers to carry out experiments. The evaluation of the ubiquitous social awareness application ContextContacts covers both the usage of the system in general as well as an analysis of privacy implications. The usage of the system is analyzed in the light of how users make inferences of others based on real-time contextual cues mediated by the system, based on several long-term field studies. The analysis of privacy implications draws together the social psychological theory of self-presentation and research in privacy for ubiquitous computing, deriving a set of design guidelines for such systems. The main findings from these studies can be summarized as follows: The fact that ubiquitous computing systems gather more data about users can be used to not only study the use of such systems in an effort to create better systems but in general to study phenomena previously unstudied, such as the dynamic change of social networks. Systems that let people create new ways of presenting themselves to others can be fun for the users---but the self-presentation requires several thoughtful design decisions that allow the manipulation of the image mediated by the system. Finally, the growing amount of computational resources available to the users can be used to allow them to use the data themselves, rather than just being passive subjects of data gathering.

Generalised quaternion methods in conformal geometry

A new approach to Penrose's twistor algebra is given. It is based on the use of a generalised quaternion algebra for the translation of statements in projective five-space into equivalent statements in twistor (conformal spinor) space. The formalism leads toSO(4, 2)-covariant formulations of the Pauli-Kofink and Fierz relations among Dirac bilinears, and generalisations of these relations.

Developing standardized methods to assess cost of healthy and unhealthy (current) diets in Australia

Unhealthy diets contribute at least 14% to Australia's disease burden and are driven by ‘obesogenic’ food environments. Compliance with dietary recommendations is particularly poor amongst disadvantaged populations including low socioeconomic groups, those living in rural/remote areas and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. The perception that healthy foods are expensive is a key barrier to healthy choices and a major determinant of diet-related health inequities. Available state/regional/local data (limited and non-comparable) suggests that, despite basic healthy foods not incurring GST, the cost of healthy food is higher and has increased more rapidly than unhealthy food over the last 15 years in Australia. However, there were no nationally standardised tools or protocols to benchmark, compare or monitor food prices and affordability in Australia. Globally, we are leading work to develop and test approaches to assess the price differential of healthy and less-healthy (current) diets under the food price module of the International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases (NCDs) Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS). This presentation describes contextualization of the INFORMAS approach to develop standardised Australian tools, survey protocols and data collection and analysis systems. The ‘healthy diet basket’ was based on the Australian Foundation Diet, 1 The ‘current diet basket’ and specific items included in each basket, were based on recent national dietary survey data.2 Data collection methods were piloted. The final tools and protocols were then applied to measure the price and affordability of healthy and less healthy (current) diets of different household groups in diverse communities across the nation. We have compared results for different geographical locations/population subgroups in Australia and assessed these against international INFORMAS benchmarks. The results inform the development of policy and practice, including those relevant to mooted changes to the GST base, to promote nutrition and healthy weight and prevent chronic disease in Australia.

Structural studies of analgesics and their interactions. III. The crystal and molecular structure of amidopyrine

Amidopyrine (1-phenyl-2,3-dimethyl-4-dimethylaminopyrazolone), C13HzvN30, a dimethylamino derivative of antipyrine and an important analgesic and antipyretic agent, crystallizes in the triclinic space group P1 with four molecules in a unit cell of dimensions a= 7.458 (5), b = 10.744 (5), c= 17.486 (15)/~,, e=98.6 (2),/~= 85.6 (3), y= 108-6 (2) . The structure was solved by direct methods and refined to an R value of 0.055 for 3706 photographically observed reflexions. The dimensions of the two crystallographically independent molecules are very nearly the same. The pyrazolone moiety in the molecule has dimensions comparable to those in antipyrine. Unlike antipyrine, the molecular dimensions of amidopyrine in the free state (the present structure) are close to those found in some of its hydrogenbonded complexes. Thus it appears that the presence of the dimethylamino group makes the molecule more resistant to changes in its dimensions resulting from molecular association. An attempt has also been made to correlate the polar nature of the pyrazolone moiety and the hybridization state of the hetero nitrogen atoms in antipyrine, amidopyrine and their complexes.

Semi-Classical Mechanics in Phase Space: A Study of Wigner's Function

We explore the semi-classical structure of the Wigner functions ($\Psi $(q, p)) representing bound energy eigenstates $|\psi \rangle $ for systems with f degrees of freedom. If the classical motion is integrable, the classical limit of $\Psi $ is a delta function on the f-dimensional torus to which classical trajectories corresponding to ($|\psi \rangle $) are confined in the 2f-dimensional phase space. In the semi-classical limit of ($\Psi $ ($\hslash $) small but not zero) the delta function softens to a peak of order ($\hslash ^{-\frac{2}{3}f}$) and the torus develops fringes of a characteristic 'Airy' form. Away from the torus, $\Psi $ can have semi-classical singularities that are not delta functions; these are discussed (in full detail when f = 1) using Thom's theory of catastrophes. Brief consideration is given to problems raised when ($\Psi $) is calculated in a representation based on operators derived from angle coordinates and their conjugate momenta. When the classical motion is non-integrable, the phase space is not filled with tori and existing semi-classical methods fail. We conjecture that (a) For a given value of non-integrability parameter ($\epsilon $), the system passes through three semi-classical regimes as ($\hslash $) diminishes. (b) For states ($|\psi \rangle $) associated with regions in phase space filled with irregular trajectories, ($\Psi $) will be a random function confined near that region of the 'energy shell' explored by these trajectories (this region has more than f dimensions). (c) For ($\epsilon \neq $0, $\hslash $) blurs the infinitely fine classical path structure, in contrast to the integrable case ($\epsilon $ = 0, where $\hslash $ )imposes oscillatory quantum detail on a smooth classical path structure.

Computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides

The past several years have seen significant advances in the development of computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides. These methods are generally based on pairwise correlations of amino acids, helical propensity, thermal melts and the energetics of sidechain interactions, as well as statistical patterns based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques. These methods are complemented by a number of public databases that contain sequences, motifs, domains and other details of coiled-coil structures identified by various algorithms. Some of these computational methods have been developed to make predictions of coiled-coil structure on the basis of sequence information; however, structural predictions of the oligomerisation state of these peptides still remains largely an open question due to the dynamic behaviour of these molecules. This review focuses on existing in silico methods for the prediction of coiled-coil peptides of functional importance using sequence and/or three-dimensional structural data.

Metal-Nucleotide Interactions: Crystal Structures of Alkali (Li+, Na+, K+) and Alkaline Earth (Ca2+, Mg2+) Metal Complexes of Adenosine 2'-Monophosphate

Crystal structures of lithium, sodium, potassium, calcium and magnesium salts of adenosine 2'-monophosphate (2'-AMP) have been obtained at atomic resolution by X-ray crystallographic methods. 2'-AMP.Li belongs to the monoclinic space group P21 with a = 7.472(3)Å, b = 26.853(6) Å, c = 9.184(1)Å, b = 113.36(1)Å and Z= 4. 2'-AMP.Na and 2'-AMP.K crystallize in the trigonal space groups P31 and P3121 with a = 8.762(1)Å, c = 34.630(5)Å, Z= 6 and a = 8.931(4), Åc = 34.852(9)Å and Z= 6 respectively while 2'-AMP.Ca and 2'-AMP.Mg belong to space groups P6522 and P21 with cell parameters a = 9.487(2), c = 74.622(13), Z = 12 and a = 4.973(1), b = 10.023(2), c = 16.506(2), beta = 91.1(0) and Z = 2 respectively. All the structures were solved by direct methods and refined by full matrix least-squares to final R factors of 0.033, 0.028, 0.075, 0.069 and 0.030 for 2'-AMP.Li, 2'-AMP.Na, 2'- AMP.K, 2'-AMP.Ca and 2'-AMP.Mg, respectively. The neutral adenine bases in all the structures are in syn conformation stabilized by the O5'-N3 intramolecular hydrogen bond as in free acid and ammonium complex reported earlier. In striking contrast, the adenine base is in the anti geometry (cCN = -156.4(2)°) in 2'-AMP.Mg. Ribose moieties adopt C2'-endo puckering in 2'-AMP.Li and 2'-AMP.Ca, C2'-endo-C3'-exo twist puckering in 2'-AMP.Na and 2'-AMP.K and a C3'-endo-C2'-exo twist puckering in 2'-AMP.Mg structure. The conformation about the exocyclic C4'-C5' bond is the commonly observed gauche-gauche (g+) in all the structures except the gauche- trans (g-) conformation observed in 2'-AMP.Mg structure. Lithium ions coordinate with water, ribose and phosphate oxygens at distances 1.88 to 1.99Å. Na+ ions and K+ ions interact with phosphate and ribose oxygens directly and with N7 indirectly through a water oxygen. A distinct feature of 2'-AMP.Na and 2'-AMP.K structures is the involvement of ribose O4' in metal coordination. The calcium ion situated on a two-fold axis coordinates directly with three oxygens OW1, OW2 and O2 and their symmetry mates at distances 2.18 to 2.42Å forming an octahedron. A classic example of an exception to the existence of the O5'-N3 intramolecular hydorgen bond is the 2'-AMP.Mg strucure. Magnesium ion forms an octahedral coordination with three water and three phosphate oxygens at distances ranging from 2.02 to 2.11Å. A noteworthy feature of its coordination is the indirect link with N3 through OW3 oxygen resulting in macrochelation between the base and the phosphate group. Greater affnity of metal clays towards 5' compared to 2' and 3' nucleotides (J. Lawless, E. Edelson, and L. Manring, Am. Chem. Soc. Northwest Region Meeting, Seattle. 1978) due to macrochelation infered from solution studies (S. S. Massoud, H. Sigel, Eur. J. Biochem. 179, 451-458 (1989)) and interligand hydrogen bonding induced by metals postulated from metal-nucleotide structures in solid state (V. Swaminathan and M. Sundaralingam, CRC. Crit. Rev. Biochem. 6, 245-336 (1979)) are borne out by our structures also. The stacking patterns of adenine bases of both 2'-AMP.Na and 2'-AMP.K structures resemble the 2'-AMP.NH4 structure reported in the previous article. 2'-AMP.Li, 2'-AMP.Ca and 2'-AMP.Mg structures display base-ribose O4' stacking. An overview of interaction of monovalent and divalent cations with 2' and 5'-nucleotides has been presented.

Beyond Gauss: Image-set matching on the Riemannian manifold of PDFs

State-of-the-art image-set matching techniques typically implicitly model each image-set with a Gaussian distribution. Here, we propose to go beyond these representations and model image-sets as probability distribution functions (PDFs) using kernel density estimators. To compare and match image-sets, we exploit Csiszar´ f-divergences, which bear strong connections to the geodesic distance defined on the space of PDFs, i.e., the statistical manifold. Furthermore, we introduce valid positive definite kernels on the statistical manifold, which let us make use of more powerful classification schemes to match image-sets. Finally, we introduce a supervised dimensionality reduction technique that learns a latent space where f-divergences reflect the class labels of the data. Our experiments on diverse problems, such as video-based face recognition and dynamic texture classification, evidence the benefits of our approach over the state-of-the-art image-set matching methods.

R1STM: One-class support tensor machine with randomised kernel

Identifying unusual or anomalous patterns in an underlying dataset is an important but challenging task in many applications. The focus of the unsupervised anomaly detection literature has mostly been on vectorised data. However, many applications are more naturally described using higher-order tensor representations. Approaches that vectorise tensorial data can destroy the structural information encoded in the high-dimensional space, and lead to the problem of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper we present the first unsupervised tensorial anomaly detection method, along with a randomised version of our method. Our anomaly detection method, the One-class Support Tensor Machine (1STM), is a generalisation of conventional one-class Support Vector Machines to higher-order spaces. 1STM preserves the multiway structure of tensor data, while achieving significant improvement in accuracy and efficiency over conventional vectorised methods. We then leverage the theory of nonlinear random projections to propose the Randomised 1STM (R1STM). Our empirical analysis on several real and synthetic datasets shows that our R1STM algorithm delivers comparable or better accuracy to a state-of-the-art deep learning method and traditional kernelised approaches for anomaly detection, while being approximately 100 times faster in training and testing.

A lower bound to the survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution for Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics in phase space

We derive a very general expression of the survival probability and the first passage time distribution for a particle executing Brownian motion in full phase space with an absorbing boundary condition at a point in the position space, which is valid irrespective of the statistical nature of the dynamics. The expression, together with the Jensen's inequality, naturally leads to a lower bound to the actual survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution. These are expressed in terms of the position-position, velocity-velocity, and position-velocity variances. Knowledge of these variances enables one to compute a lower bound to the survival probability and consequently the first passage distribution function. As examples, we compute these for a Gaussian Markovian process and, in the case of non-Markovian process, with an exponentially decaying friction kernel and also with a power law friction kernel. Our analysis shows that the survival probability decays exponentially at the long time irrespective of the nature of the dynamics with an exponent equal to the transition state rate constant.

Assessment of motivation to control alcohol use: The motivational thought frequency and state motivation scales for alcohol control

Introduction The Elaborated Intrusion Theory of Desire holds that desires for functional and dysfunctional goals share a common form. Both are embodied cognitive events, characterised by affective intensity and frequency. Accordingly, we developed scales to measure motivational cognitions for functional goals (Motivational Thought Frequency, MTF; State Motivation, SM), based on the existing Craving Experience Questionnaire (CEQ). When applied to increasing exercise, MTF and SM showed the same three-factor structure as the CEQ (Intensity, Imagery, Availability). The current study tested the internal structure and concurrent validity of the MTF and SM Scales when applied to control of alcohol consumption (MTF-A; SM-A). Methods Participants (N = 417) were adult tertiary students, staff or community members who had recently engaged in high-risk drinking or were currently trying to control alcohol consumption. They completed an online survey comprising the MTF-A, SM-A, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), Readiness to Change Questionnaire (RCQ) and demographics. Results Confirmatory Factor Analysis gave acceptable fit for the MTF-A, but required the loss of one SM-A item, and was improved by intercorrelations of error terms. Higher scores were associated with more severe problems on the AUDIT and with higher Contemplation and Action scores on the RCQ. Conclusions The MTF-A and SM-A show potential as measures of motivation to control drinking. Future research will examine their predictive validity and sensitivity to change. The scales' application to both increasing functional and decreasing dysfunctional behaviours is consistent with EI Theory's contention that both goal types operate in similar ways.

Type II beta-turn conformation of pivaloyl-L-prolyl-a-aminoiso-butyryl-N-methylamide: Theoretical, spectroscopic and X-ray studies

Pivaloyl-L-Pro-Aib-N-methylamihdaes been shown to possess one intramolecular hydrogen bond in (CD&SO solution, by 'H-nmr methods, suggesting the existence of p-turns, with Pro-Aib as the corner residues. Theoretical conformational analysis suggests that Type II P-turn conformations are about 2 kcal mol-' more stable than Type 111 structures. A crystallographic study has established the Type I1 /%turn in the solid state. The molecule crystallizes in the space group P21 with a = 5.865 8, b = 11.421 A, c = 12.966 A, /3 = 97.55", and 2 = 2. The structure has been refined to a final R value of 0.061. The Type I1 p-turn conformation is stabilized by an intramolecular 4 - 1 hydrogen bond between the methylamide NH and the pivaloyl CO group. The conformational angles are @pro= -57.8", $pro = 139.3', @Aib = 61.4', and $Ajb = 25.1'. The Type 11 /%turn conformation for Pro-Aib in this peptide is compared with the Type I11 structures observed for the same segment in larger peptides.

Role of the triplet state in the green emission peak of polyfluorene films: A time evolution study

The blue emission of ethyl-hexyl substituted polyfluorene (PF2/6) films is accompanied by a low energy green emission peak around 500 nm in inert atmosphere. The intensity of this 500 nm peak is large in electroluminescence (EL) compared to photoluminescence (PL)measurements. Furthermore, the green emission intensity reduces dramatically in the presence of molecular oxygen. To understand this, we have modeled various nonradiative processes by time dependent quantum many body methods. These are (i) intersystem crossing to study conversion of excited singlets to triplets leading to a phosphorescence emission, (ii) electron-hole recombination (e-hR) process in the presence of a paramagnetic impurity to follow the yield of triplets in a polyene system doped with paramagnetic metal atom, and (iii) quenching of excited triplet states in the presence of oxygen molecules to understand the low intensity of EL emission in ambient atmosphere, when compared with that in nitrogen atmosphere. We have employed the Pariser-Parr-Pople Hamiltonian to model the molecules and have invoked electron-electron repulsions beyond zero differential approximation while treating interactions between the organic molecule and the rest of the system. Our time evolution methods show that there is a large cross section for triplet formation in the e-hR process in the presence of paramagnetic impurity with degenerate orbitals. The triplet yield through e-hR process far exceeds that in the intersystem crossing pathway, clearly pointing to the large intensity of the 500 nm peak in EL compared to PL measurements. We have also modeled the triplet quenching process by a paramagnetic oxygen molecule which shows a sizable quenching cross section especially for systems with large sizes. These studies show that the most probable origin of the experimentally observed low energy EL emission is the triplets.

Wigner distributions for finite-state systems without redundant phase-point operators

We set up Wigner distributions for N-state quantum systems following a Dirac-inspired approach. In contrast to much of the work in this study, requiring a 2N x 2N phase space, particularly when N is even, our approach is uniformly based on an N x N phase-space grid and thereby avoids the necessity of having to invoke a `quadrupled' phase space and hence the attendant redundance. Both N odd and even cases are analysed in detail and it is found that there are striking differences between the two. While the N odd case permits full implementation of the marginal property, the even case does so only in a restricted sense. This has the consequence that in the even case one is led to several equally good definitions of the Wigner distributions as opposed to the odd case where the choice turns out to be unique.