Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

A Modified inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation method and the performance on ambiguity resolution

One of the research focuses in the integer least squares problem is the decorrelation technique to reduce the number of integer parameter search candidates and improve the efficiency of the integer parameter search method. It remains as a challenging issue for determining carrier phase ambiguities and plays a critical role in the future of GNSS high precise positioning area. Currently, there are three main decorrelation techniques being employed: the integer Gaussian decorrelation, the Lenstra–Lenstra–Lovász (LLL) algorithm and the inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation (IICD) method. Although the performance of these three state-of-the-art methods have been proved and demonstrated, there is still a potential for further improvements. To measure the performance of decorrelation techniques, the condition number is usually used as the criterion. Additionally, the number of grid points in the search space can be directly utilized as a performance measure as it denotes the size of search space. However, a smaller initial volume of the search ellipsoid does not always represent a smaller number of candidates. This research has proposed a modified inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation (MIICD) method which improves the decorrelation performance over the other three techniques. The decorrelation performance of these methods was evaluated based on the condition number of the decorrelation matrix, the number of search candidates and the initial volume of search space. Additionally, the success rate of decorrelated ambiguities was calculated for all different methods to investigate the performance of ambiguity validation. The performance of different decorrelation methods was tested and compared using both simulation and real data. The simulation experiment scenarios employ the isotropic probabilistic model using a predetermined eigenvalue and without any geometry or weighting system constraints. MIICD method outperformed other three methods with conditioning improvements over LAMBDA method by 78.33% and 81.67% without and with eigenvalue constraint respectively. The real data experiment scenarios involve both the single constellation system case and dual constellations system case. Experimental results demonstrate that by comparing with LAMBDA, MIICD method can significantly improve the efficiency of reducing the condition number by 78.65% and 97.78% in the case of single constellation and dual constellations respectively. It also shows improvements in the number of search candidate points by 98.92% and 100% in single constellation case and dual constellations case.

Efficient simulation of unsaturated flow using exponential time integration

We assess the performance of an exponential integrator for advancing stiff, semidiscrete formulations of the unsaturated Richards equation in time. The scheme is of second order and explicit in nature but requires the action of the matrix function φ(A) where φ(z) = [exp(z) - 1]/z on a suitability defined vector v at each time step. When the matrix A is large and sparse, φ(A)v can be approximated by Krylov subspace methods that require only matrix-vector products with A. We prove that despite the use of this approximation the scheme remains second order. Furthermore, we provide a practical variable-stepsize implementation of the integrator by deriving an estimate of the local error that requires only a single additional function evaluation. Numerical experiments performed on two-dimensional test problems demonstrate that this implementation outperforms second-order, variable-stepsize implementations of the backward differentiation formulae.

Digital image processing techniques for pavement macro-texture analysis

Road surface macro-texture is an indicator used to determine the skid resistance levels in pavements. Existing methods of quantifying macro-texture include the sand patch test and the laser profilometer. These methods utilise the 3D information of the pavement surface to extract the average texture depth. Recently, interest in image processing techniques as a quantifier of macro-texture has arisen, mainly using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). This paper reviews the FFT method, and then proposes two new methods, one using the autocorrelation function and the other using wavelets. The methods are tested on pictures obtained from a pavement surface extending more than 2km's. About 200 images were acquired from the surface at approx. 10m intervals from a height 80cm above ground. The results obtained from image analysis methods using the FFT, the autocorrelation function and wavelets are compared with sensor measured texture depth (SMTD) data obtained from the same paved surface. The results indicate that coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.8 are obtained when up to 10% of outliers are removed.

Improved design method for biosecurity surveillance and early detection of non-indigenous rats

A recent advance in biosecurity surveillance design aims to benefit island conservation through early and improved detection of incursions by non-indigenous species. The novel aspects of the design are that it achieves a specified power of detection in a cost-managed system, while acknowledging heterogeneity of risk in the study area and stratifying the area to target surveillance deployment. The design also utilises a variety of surveillance system components, such as formal scientific surveys, trapping methods, and incidental sightings by non-biologist observers. These advances in design were applied to black rats (Rattus rattus) representing the group of invasive rats including R. norvegicus, and R. exulans, which are potential threats to Barrow Island, Australia, a high value conservation nature reserve where a proposed liquefied natural gas development is a potential source of incursions. Rats are important to consider as they are prevalent invaders worldwide, difficult to detect early when present in low numbers, and able to spread and establish relatively quickly after arrival. The ‘exemplar’ design for the black rat is then applied in a manner that enables the detection of a range of non-indigenous species of rat that could potentially be introduced. Many of the design decisions were based on expert opinion as data gaps exist in empirical data. The surveillance system was able to take into account factors such as collateral effects on native species, the availability of limited resources on an offshore island, financial costs, demands on expertise and other logistical constraints. We demonstrate the flexibility and robustness of the surveillance system and discuss how it could be updated as empirical data are collected to supplement expert opinion and provide a basis for adaptive management. Overall, the surveillance system promotes an efficient use of resources while providing defined power to detect early rat incursions, translating to reduced environmental, resourcing and financial costs.

Electrospraying a reproducible method for production of polymeric microspheres for biomedical applications

The ability to reproducibly load bioactive molecules into polymeric microspheres is a challenge. Traditional microsphere fabrication methods typically provide inhomogeneous release profiles and suffer from lack of batch to batch reproducibility, hindering their potential to up-scale and their translation to the clinic. This deficit in homogeneity is in part attributed to broad size distributions and variability in the morphology of particles. It is thus desirable to control morphology and size of non-loaded particles in the first instance, in preparation for obtaining desired release profiles of loaded particles in the later stage. This is achieved by identifying the key parameters involved in particle production and understanding how adapting these parameters affects the final characteristics of particles. In this study, electrospraying was presented as a promising technique for generating reproducible particles made of polycaprolactone, a biodegradable, FDA-approved polymer. Narrow size distributions were obtained by the control of electrospraying flow rate and polymer concentration, with average particle sizes ranging from 10 to 20 um. Particles were shown to be spherical with a homogenous embossed texture, determined by the polymer entanglement regime taking place during electrospraying. No toxic residue was detected by this process based on preliminary cell work using DNA quantification assays, validating this method as suitable for further loading of bioactive components.

Amine-sssisted route to fabricate LiNbO3 particles with a tunable shape

An ethylenediamine-assisted route has been designed for one-step synthesis of lithium niobate particles with a novel rodlike structure in an aqueous solution system. The morphological evolution for these lithium niobate rods was monitored via SEM: The raw materials form large lozenges first. These lozenges are a metastable intermediate of this reaction, and they subsequently crack into small rods after sufficiently long time. These small rods recrystallize and finally grow into individual lithium niobate rods. Interestingly, shape-controlled fabrication of lithium niobate powders was achieved through using different amine ligands. For instance, the ethylenediamine or ethanolamine ligan can induce the formation of rods, while n-butylamine prefers to construct hollow spheres. These as-obtained lithium niobate rods and hollow spheres may exhibit enhanced performance in an optical application field due to their distinctive structures. This effective ligand-tuned-morphology route can provide a new strategy to facilely achieve the shape-controlled synthesis of other niobates.

Response to "a step in the right direction : commentary on expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in youth"

The figure Beets took exception to displays sex‐ and age‐specific median values of aggregated published expected values for pedometer determined physical activity.

Validation and automation of the DYNJAWS component module of the BEAMnrc Monte Carlo code

The purpose of this work is to validate and automate the use of DYNJAWS; a new component module (CM) in the BEAMnrc Monte Carlo (MC) user code. The DYNJAWS CM simulates dynamic wedges and can be used in three modes; dynamic, step-and-shoot and static. The step-and-shoot and dynamic modes require an additional input file defining the positions of the jaw that constitutes the dynamic wedge, at regular intervals during its motion. A method for automating the generation of the input file is presented which will allow for the more efficient use of the DYNJAWS CM. Wedged profiles have been measured and simulated for 6 and 10 MV photons at three field sizes (5 cm x 5 cm , 10 cm x10 cm and 20 cm x 20 cm), four wedge angles (15, 30, 45 and 60 degrees), at dmax and at 10 cm depth. Results of this study show agreement between the measured and the MC profiles to within 3% of absolute dose or 3 mm distance to agreement for all wedge angles at both energies and depths. The gamma analysis suggests that dynamic mode is more accurate than the step-and-shoot mode. The DYNJAWS CM is an important addition to the BEAMnrc code and will enable the MC verification of patient treatments involving dynamic wedges.

Design for inspiration : children, personal connections and educational technology

The project is working towards building an understanding of the personal interests and experiences of children with the aim of designing appropriate, usable and, most importantly, inspirational educational technology. kidprobe, an adaptation of the technology probe concept, has been used as a lightweight method of gaining contextual information about children's interactions with 'fun' technology. kidprobe has produced design inspiration which focuses primarily on the social and emotional connections children made. The use of kidprobe has generated some important ideas for improving the use of probes with children. It is an important first step in understanding how to effectively adapt probing techniques to inspire the design of technology for children.

SimTrust : a new method of trust network generation

Trust can be used for neighbor formation to generate automated recommendations. User assigned explicit rating data can be used for this purpose. However, the explicit rating data is not always available. In this paper we present a new method of generating trust network based on user’s interest similarity. To identify the interest similarity, we use user’s personalized tag information. This trust network can be used to find the neighbors to make automated recommendation. Our experiment result shows that the precision of the proposed method outperforms the traditional collaborative filtering approach.

Development of the response coefficient-root function method for the transient vibration serviceability design of flat concrete floors

The vibration serviceability limit state is an important design consideration for two-way, suspended concrete floors that is not always well understood by many practicing structural engineers. Although the field of floor vibration has been extensively developed, at present there are no convenient design tools that deal with this problem. Results from this research have enabled the development of a much-needed, new method for assessing the vibration serviceability of flat, suspended concrete floors in buildings. This new method has been named, the Response Coefficient-Root Function (RCRF) method. Full-scale, laboratory tests have been conducted on a post-tensioned floor specimen at Queensland University of Technology’s structural laboratory. Special support brackets were fabricated to perform as frictionless, pinned connections at the corners of the specimen. A series of static and dynamic tests were performed in the laboratory to obtain basic material and dynamic properties of the specimen. Finite-element-models have been calibrated against data collected from laboratory experiments. Computational finite-element-analysis has been extended to investigate a variety of floor configurations. Field measurements of floors in existing buildings are in good agreement with computational studies. Results from this parametric investigation have led to the development of new approach for predicting the design frequencies and accelerations of flat, concrete floor structures. The RCRF method is convenient tool to assist structural engineers in the design for the vibration serviceability limit-state of in-situ concrete floor systems.

Multiscale analysis of protein functions and stochastic modelling of gene transcriptional regulatory networks

Genomic and proteomic analyses have attracted a great deal of interests in biological research in recent years. Many methods have been applied to discover useful information contained in the enormous databases of genomic sequences and amino acid sequences. The results of these investigations inspire further research in biological fields in return. These biological sequences, which may be considered as multiscale sequences, have some specific features which need further efforts to characterise using more refined methods. This project aims to study some of these biological challenges with multiscale analysis methods and stochastic modelling approach. The first part of the thesis aims to cluster some unknown proteins, and classify their families as well as their structural classes. A development in proteomic analysis is concerned with the determination of protein functions. The first step in this development is to classify proteins and predict their families. This motives us to study some unknown proteins from specific families, and to cluster them into families and structural classes. We select a large number of proteins from the same families or superfamilies, and link them to simulate some unknown large proteins from these families. We use multifractal analysis and the wavelet method to capture the characteristics of these linked proteins. The simulation results show that the method is valid for the classification of large proteins. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the relationship of proteins based on a layered comparison with their components. Many methods are based on homology of proteins because the resemblance at the protein sequence level normally indicates the similarity of functions and structures. However, some proteins may have similar functions with low sequential identity. We consider protein sequences at detail level to investigate the problem of comparison of proteins. The comparison is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and protein sequences are detected with the intrinsic mode functions. A measure of similarity is introduced with a new cross-correlation formula. The similarity results show that the EMD is useful for detection of functional relationships of proteins. The third part of the thesis aims to investigate the transcriptional regulatory network of yeast cell cycle via stochastic differential equations. As the investigation of genome-wide gene expressions has become a focus in genomic analysis, researchers have tried to understand the mechanisms of the yeast genome for many years. How cells control gene expressions still needs further investigation. We use a stochastic differential equation to model the expression profile of a target gene. We modify the model with a Gaussian membership function. For each target gene, a transcriptional rate is obtained, and the estimated transcriptional rate is also calculated with the information from five possible transcriptional regulators. Some regulators of these target genes are verified with the related references. With these results, we construct a transcriptional regulatory network for the genes from the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The construction of transcriptional regulatory network is useful for detecting more mechanisms of the yeast cell cycle.

Perioperative mortality after hemiarthroplasty related to fixation method : a study based on the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

Background and purpose: The appropriate fixation method for hemiarthroplasty of the hip as it relates to implant survivorship and patient mortality is a matter of ongoing debate. We examined the influence of fixation method on revision rate and mortality.----- ----- Methods: We analyzed approximately 25,000 hemiarthroplasty cases from the AOA National Joint Replacement Registry. Deaths at 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year were compared for all patients and among subgroups based on implant type.----- ----- Results: Patients treated with cemented monoblock hemiarthroplasty had a 1.7-times higher day-1 mortality compared to uncemented monoblock components (p < 0.001). This finding was reversed by 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year after surgery (p < 0.001). Modular hemiarthroplasties did not reveal a difference in mortality between fixation methods at any time point.----- ----- Interpretation: This study shows lower (or similar) overall mortality with cemented hemiarthroplasty of the hip.

Nanostructured metal oxides as adsorbents and photocatalysts

This research underlines the extensive application of nanostructured metal oxides in environmental systems such as hazardous waste remediation and water purification. This study tries to forge a new understanding of the complexity of adsorption and photocatalysis in the process of water treatment. Sodium niobate doped with a different amount of tantalum, was prepared via a hydrothermal reaction and was observed to be able to adsorb highly hazardous bivalent radioactive isotopes such as Sr2+ and Ra2+ions. This study facilitates the preparation of Nb-based adsorbents for efficiently removing toxic radioactive ions from contaminated water and also identifies the importance of understanding the influence of heterovalent substitution in microporous frameworks. Clay adsorbents were prepared via a two-step method to remove anionic and non-ionic herbicides from water. Firstly, layered beidellite clay was treated with acid in a hydrothermal process; secondly, common silane coupling agents, 3-chloro-propyl trimethoxysilane or triethoxy silane, were grafted onto the acid treated samples to prepare the adsorption materials. In order to isolate the effect of the clay surface, we compared the adsorption property of clay adsorbents with ƒ×-Al2O3 nanofibres grafted with the same functional groups. Thin alumina (£^-Al2O3) nanofibres were modified by the grafting of two organosilane agents 3-chloropropyltriethoxysilane and octyl triethoxysilane onto the surface, for the adsorptive removal of alachlor and imazaquin herbicides from water. The formation of organic groups during the functionalisation process established super hydrophobic sites along the surfaces and those non-polar regions of the surfaces were able to make close contact with the organic pollutants. A new structure of anatase crystals linked to clay fragments was synthesised by the reaction of TiOSO4 with laponite clay for the degradation of pesticides. Based on the Ti/clay ratio, these new catalysts showed a high degradation rate when compared with P25. Moreover, immobilized TiO2 on laponite clay fragments could be readily separated out from a slurry system after the photocatalytic reaction. Using a series of partial phase transition methods, an effective catalyst with fibril morphology was prepared for the degradation of different types of phenols and trace amount of herbicides from water. Both H-titanate and TiO2-(B) fibres coated with anatase nanocrystal were studied. When compared with a laponite clay photocatalyst, it was found that anatase dotted TiO2-(B) fibres prepared by a 45 h hydrothermal treatment followed by calcination were not only superior in performance in photocatalysis but could also be readily separated from a slurry system after photocatalytic reactions. This study has laid the foundation for the development of the ability to fabricate highly efficient nanostructured solids for the removal of radioactive ions and organic pollutants from contaminated water. These results now seem set to contribute to the development of advanced water purification devices in the future. These modified nanostructured materials with unusual properties have broadened their application range beyond their traditional use as adsorbents, to also encompass the storage of nuclear waste after concentrating from contaminated water.