Performance-based contracting in the construction sector

Construction procurement is complex and there is a very wide range of options available to procurers. Inappropriate choices about how to procure may limit practical opportunities for innovation. In particular, traditional approaches to construction procurement set up many obstacles for technology suppliers to provide innovative solutions. This is because they are often employed as sub-contractors simply to provide and install equipment to specifications developed before the point at which they become involved in a project. A research team at the University of Reading has developed a procurement framework that comprehensively defines the various options open to procurers in a more fine-grained way than has been known in the past. This enables informed decisions that can establish tailor-made procurement approaches that take into account the needs of specific clients. It enables risk and reward structures to be aligned so that contracts and payment mechanisms are aligned precisely with what a client seeks to achieve. This is not a “one-size-fits-all” approach. Rather, it is an approach that enables informed decisions about how to organize individual procurements that are appropriate to particular circumstances, acknowledging that they differ for each client and for each procurement exercise. Within this context, performance-based contracting (PBC) is explored in terms of the different ways in which technology suppliers within constructed facilities might be encouraged and rewarded for the kinds of innovation sought by the ultimate clients. Examples from various industry sectors are presented, from public sector and from private sector, with a commentary about what they sought to achieve and the extent to which they were successful. The lessons from these examples are presented in terms of feasibility in relation to financial issues, governance, economics, strategic issues, contractual issues and cash flow issues for clients and for contractors. Further background documents and more detailed readings are provided in an appendix for those who wish to find out more.

An historical perspective on forecast errors

Using annual observations on industrial production over the last three centuries, and on GDP over a 100-year period, we seek an historical perspective on the forecastability of these UK output measures. The series are dominated by strong upward trends, so we consider various specifications of this, including the local linear trend structural time-series model, which allows the level and slope of the trend to vary. Our results are not unduly sensitive to how the trend in the series is modelled: the average sizes of the forecast errors of all models, and the wide span of prediction intervals, attests to a great deal of uncertainty in the economic environment. It appears that, from an historical perspective, the postwar period has been relatively more forecastable.

Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches

We consider methods of evaluating multivariate density forecasts. A recently proposed method is found to lack power when the correlation structure is mis-specified. Tests that have good power to detect mis-specifications of this sort are described. We also consider the properties of the tests in the presence of more general mis-specifications.

Automated algorithms for multilayer thin film filter design using metamaterials

Currently, infrared filters for astronomical telescopes and satellite radiometers are based on multilayer thin film stacks of alternating high and low refractive index materials. However, the choice of suitable layer materials is limited and this places limitations on the filter performance that can be achieved. The ability to design materials with arbitrary refractive index allows for filter performance to be greatly increased but also increases the complexity of design. Here a differential algorithm was used as a method for optimised design of filters with arbitrary refractive indices, and then materials are designed to these specifications as mono-materials with sub wavelength structures using Bruggeman’s effective material approximation (EMA).

Crossbred cow adoption and its correlates: countable adoption specification search in Sri Lanka's small holder dairy sector

Considerable specification choice confronts countable adoption investigations and there is need to measure, formally, the evidence in favor of competing formulations. This article presents alternative countable adoption specifications—hitherto neglected in the agricultural-economics literature—and assesses formally their usefulness to practitioners. Reference to the left side of de Finetti's (1937) famous representation theorem motivates Bayesian unification of agricultural adoption studies and facilitates comparisons with conventional binary-choice specifications. Such comparisons have not previously been considered. The various formulations and the specific techniques are highlighted in an application to crossbred cow adoption in Sri Lanka's small-holder dairy sector.

International transmission mechanisms and contagion in housing markets

This paper explores international transmission mechanism and its role in contagion effect in the housing markets across six major Asian cities. The analysis is based on the identification of house price diffusion effects through a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six major Asian cities (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the open economies heavily relying on international trade such as Singapore, Japan (Tokyo), Taiwan (Taipei) and Thailand (Bangkok) show positive correlations between the economy's openness and house prices, which is consistent with the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis. Interestingly, some region-specific conditions also appear to play important roles as determinants of house price movements, which may be driven by restrictive housing policies and demand–supply imbalances such as Singapore and Bangkok. These results are reasonably robust across several model specifications. The findings bear significant implications for formulation of investment strategy and public policies.

Energy performance ratings and house prices in Wales: an empirical study

This paper investigates the price effect of EPC ratings on the residential dwelling prices in Wales. It examines the capitalisation of energy efficiency ratings into house prices using two approaches. The first adopts a cross-sectional framework to investigate the effect of EPC band (and EPC rating) on a large sample of dwelling transactions. The second approach is based on a repeat-sales methodology to examine the impact of EPC band and rating on house price appreciation. The results show that, controlling for other price influencing dwelling characteristics, EPC band does affect house prices. This observed influence of EPC on price may not be a result of energy performance alone; the effect may be due to non-energy related benefits associated with certain types, specifications and ages of dwellings or there may be unobserved quality differences unrelated to energy performance such as better quality fittings and materials. An analysis of the private rental segment reveals that, in contrast to the general market, low-EPC rated properties were not traded at a significant discount, suggesting different implicit prices of potential energy savings for landlords and owner-occupiers.

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

The role of undisclosed reserves in English open outcry auctions

This study considers the role that reserve prices may play in residential property auctions. In comparison to much of the previous empirical work, this study has access to undisclosed reserve prices from English auctions. Consistent with theoretical arguments in the auction literature, the results obtained illustrate that whilst higher reserve prices increase the revenue obtained for the seller, they also reduce the probability of sale. The findings also highlight the importance of auction participation, with the number of individual bidders and the number of bids significant in most specifications.

Variation in nutritionally relevant components in retail Jersey and Guernsey whole milk

This study investigates the quality of retail milk labelled as Jersey & Guernsey (JG) when compared with milk without breed specifications (NS) and repeatability of differences over seasons and years. 16 different brands of milk (4 Jersey & Guernsey, 12 non specified breed) were sampled over 2 years on 4 occasions. JG milk was associated with both favourable traits for human health, such as the higher total protein, total casein, α-casein, β-casein, κ-casein and α-tocopherol contents, and unfavourable traits, such as the higher concentrations of saturated fat, C12:0, C14:0 and lower concentrations of monounsaturated fatty acids. In summer, JG milk had a higher omega-3:omega-6 ratio than had NS milk. Also, the relative increase in omega-3 fatty acids and α-tocopherol, from winter to summer, was greater in JG milk. The latter characteristic could be of use in breeding schemes and farming systems producing niche dairy products. Seasonality had a more marked impact on the fatty acid composition of JG milk than had NS milk, while the opposite was found for protein composition. Potential implication for the findings in human health, producers, industry and consumers are considered.

Communicating thematic data quality with web map services

Geospatial information of many kinds, from topographic maps to scientific data, is increasingly being made available through web mapping services. These allow georeferenced map images to be served from data stores and displayed in websites and geographic information systems, where they can be integrated with other geographic information. The Open Geospatial Consortium’s Web Map Service (WMS) standard has been widely adopted in diverse communities for sharing data in this way. However, current services typically provide little or no information about the quality or accuracy of the data they serve. In this paper we will describe the design and implementation of a new “quality-enabled” profile of WMS, which we call “WMS-Q”. This describes how information about data quality can be transmitted to the user through WMS. Such information can exist at many levels, from entire datasets to individual measurements, and includes the many different ways in which data uncertainty can be expressed. We also describe proposed extensions to the Symbology Encoding specification, which include provision for visualizing uncertainty in raster data in a number of different ways, including contours, shading and bivariate colour maps. We shall also describe new open-source implementations of the new specifications, which include both clients and servers.

Mathematical relationships between scoring parameters in capped tendering

Mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. This paper introduces the various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe and inter-relate not only the main Scoring Parameters but the main Forecasting Parameters in any capped tender (those whose price is upper-limited). Forecasting Parameters, as variables that can be known in advance before the deadline of a tender is reached, together with Scoring Parameters constitute the basis of a future Bid Tender Forecasting Model.

On competitive bidding: scoring and position probability graphs

Iso-score curves graph (iSCG) and mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters (SP) and Forecasting Parameters (FP) can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) used in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. The various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe the main SPs and FPs, and the representation of tendering data by means of iSCGs, enable the generation of two new types of graphs that can be very useful for bidders who want to be more competitive: the scoring and position probability graphs.

Urban economic openness and IPO underpricing

We examine the empirical impact of trade openness on the short-run underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) using city-level real estate data. This paper represents a first attempt to employ a macroeconomic approach to explain IPO performance. We investigate an openness effect in which urban economic openness (UEO) has a significant impact on the productivity and on the prices of both direct and indirect real estate due to productivity gains of companies in more open areas. This in turn positively affects the firm’s profitability, enhancing the confidence in the local real estate market and the future company performance and decreasing the uncertainty of the IPO valuation. And as a result, we find that issuers have less incentive to underprice the IPO shares. China provides a suitable experimental ground to study the immense underpricing in developing markets, which cannot solely be accounted for by firm specific effects. First, Chinese real estate companies show strong geographic patterns focusing their businesses locally – usually at a city level. Second, we observe a degree of openness which is significantly heterogeneous across Chinese cities. Controlling for company-specific variables, location and state ownership, we find the evidence that companies whose businesses are in economically more open areas experience less IPO underpricing. Our results show high explanatory power and are robust to diverse specifications.