Affaires de patrons, usages de la frontière : géographie des réseaux marchands entre Niger, Bénin et Nigéria

Résumé L'objectif de la thèse est de comprendre le mode d'organisation économique spécifique aux petits centres urbains qui composent les espaces frontaliers sahéliens, en s'interrogeant sur leur concurrence ou leur complémentarité éventuelle à l'intérieur d'un régime de spatialité particulier. En s'appuyant sur l'exemple du carrefour économique de Gaya-Malanville-Kamba situé à la frontière entre le Niger, le Bénin et le Nigeria, il questionne le rôle de la ville-frontière ainsi que le jeu des acteurs marchands localement dominants, à partir de quatre grandes interrogations : Quelles sont les spécificités de l'Afrique sahélienne qui obligent à renouveler les approches géographiques de l'espace marchand? Quels sont les facteurs déterminants de l'activité économique frontalière? Les formes d'organisation de l'espace qui concourent à la structuration de l'économie sont-elles concurrentes ou coopératives? Les logiques économiques frontalières sont-elles compatibles avec l'orientation des programmes de développement adoptés par les pays sahéliens et leurs partenaires bi- ou multilatéraux? Dans une première partie, un modèle territorial de l'Afrique sahélienne permet de rendre compte de la prédominance des logiques circulatoires sur les logiques productives, une propriété essentielle de toute organisation économique confrontée à l'instabilité climatique. Dans une seconde partie, l'étude considère les facteurs déterminants de l'activité économique frontalière que sont le degré d'enclavement des territoires, la libre circulation des biens et des personnes, les relations concurrentielles ou coopératives qui lient les marchés ainsi que les liens clientélistes qui unissent patron et obligés. Une troisième partie est consacrée aux productions agricoles de tente organisées sous forme de coopératives paysannes ou d'initiatives privées. Une quatrième partie s'intéresse aux réseaux de l'import-export et du commerce de détail qui bénéficient de l'augmentation des besoins engendrée par l'urbanisation sahélienne. L'économie spatiale qui résulte de ces flux est organisée selon deux logiques distinctes : d'une part, les opportunités relatives à la production agricole conduisent certains investisseurs à intensifier l'irrigation pour satisfaire la demande des marchés urbains, d'autre part, les acteurs du capitalisme marchand, actifs dans l'import-export et la vente de détail, développent des réseaux informels et mobiles qui se jouent des différentiels nationaux. Les activités commerciales des villes-marchés connaissent alors des fluctuations liées aux entreprises productives et circulatoires de ces patrons, lesquelles concourent à l'organisation territoriale générale de l>Afrique sahélienne. Ces logiques évoluent dans un contexte fortement marqué par les politiques des institutions financières internationales, des agences bilatérales de coopération et des ONGs. Celles-ci se donnent pour ambition de transformer les économies, les systèmes politiques et les organisations sociales sahéliennes, en faisant la promotion du libéralisme, de la bonne gouvernance et de la société civile. Ces axes directeurs, qui constituent le champ de bataille contemporain du développement, forment un ensemble dans lequel la spécificité sahélienne notamment frontalière est rarement prise en compte. C'est pourquoi l'étude conclut en faveur d'un renouvellement des politiques de développement appliquées aux espaces frontaliers. Trois grands axes d'intervention peuvent alors être dégagés, lesquels permettent de réconcilier des acteurs et des logiques longtemps dissociés: ceux des espaces séparés par une limite administrative, ceux de la sphère urbaine et rurale et ceux du capitalisme marchand et de l'investissement agricole, en renforçant la coopération économique transfrontalière, en prenant en considération les interactions croissantes entre villes et campagnes et en appuyant les activités marchandes. Abstract: Urbanisation in West Africa is recent and fast. If only 10 % of the total population was living in urban areas in 1950, this proportion reached 40 % in 2000 and will be estimated to 60 % in 2025. Small and intermediate cities, located between the countryside and large metropolis, are particularly concerned with this process. They are nowadays considered as efficient vectors of local economic development because of fiscal or monetary disparities between states, which enable businessmen to develop particular skills based on local urban networks. The majority of theses networks are informal and extremely flexible, like in the Gaya - Malanville - Kamba region, located between Niger, Benin and Nigeria. Evidence show that this economic space is characterised by high potentialities (climatic and hydrological conditions, location on main economic West African axis) and few constraints (remoteness of some potentially high productive areas). In this context, this PhD deals with the economic relationships between the three market cities. Focusing on the links that unite the businessmen of the local markets - called patron; - it reveals the extreme flexibility of their strategies as well as the deeply informal nature of their activities. Through the analysis of examples taken from the commerce of agricultural products, import and export flows and detail activities, it studies the changes that have taken place in the city centres of Gaya, Malanville and Kamba. Meanwhile, this research shows how these cities represent a border economical area based on rival and complementary connections. In the first Part, it was necessary to reconsider the usual spatial analysis devoted to the question of economic centrality. As a matter of fact, the organisation of West African economic spaces is very flexible and mobile. Centrality is always precarious because of seasonal or temporary reasons. This is why the first chapters are devoted to the study of the specificity of the Sahelian territoriality. Two main elements are relevant: first the population diversity and second, the urban-rural linkages. In the second part, the study considers three main factors on which the cross-border economic networks are dependent: enclosure that prevents goods to reach the markets, administrative constraints that limit free trade between states and cities and the concurrent or complementary relationships between markets. A third part deals with the clientelist ties engaged between the patrons and their clients with the hypothesis that these relationships are based on reciprocity and inequality. A fourth part is devoted to' the study of the spatial organisation of commercial goods across the borders, as far as the agriculture commercial products, the import-export merchandises and the retail products are concerned. This leads to the conclusion that the economic activity is directly linked to urban growth. However, the study notices that there is a lack of efficient policies dealing with strengthening the business sector and improving the cross-border cooperation. This particularity allows us to favour new local development approaches, which would take into account the important potential of private economical actors. In the same time, the commercial flows should be regulated with the help of public policies, as long as they are specifically adapted to the problems that these areas have to deal with.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas: an application to the Spanish stock market

In this paper we deal with the identification of dependencies between time series of equity returns. Marginal distribution functions are assumed to be known, and a bivariate chi-square test of fit is applied in a fully parametric copula approach. Several families of copulas are fitted and compared with Spanish stock market data. The results show that the t-copula generally outperforms other dependence structures, and highlight the difficulty in adjusting a significant number of bivariate data series

Single-valued solutions for the Böhm-Bawerk horse market game

Single-valued solutions for the case of two-sided market games without product differentiation, also known as Böhm-Bawerk horse market games, are analyzed. The nucleolus is proved to coincide with the tau-value, and is thus the midpoint of the core. Moreover a characterization of this setof games in terms of the assignment matrix is provided.

The relationship of capitalization period length with market portfolio composition and betas

Beta coefficients are not stable if we modify the observation periods of the returns. The market portfolio composition also varies, whereas changes in the betas are the same, whether they are calculated as regression coefficients or as a ratio of the risk premiums. The instantaneous beta, obtained when the capitalization frequency approaches infinity, may be a useful tool in portfolio selection.

Deciding the sale of a life policy in the viatical market: Implications on individual welfare

[cat] En aquest article, es presenta un model econòmic que permet determinar la venda o no d'una pòlissa de vida (total o en part) per part d'un assegurat malalt terminal en el mercat dels viatical settlements. Aquest mercat va aparèixer a finals de la dècada dels 80 a conseqüència de l'epidèmia de la SIDA. Actualment, representa una part del mercat dels life settlements. Les pòlisses que es comercialitzen en el mercat dels viaticals són aquelles on l'assegurat és malalt terminal amb una esperança de vida de dos anys o menys. El model és discret i considera només dos períodes (anys), ja que aquesta és la vida residual màxima que contempla el mercat. L'agent posseix una riquesa inicial que ha de repartir entre consum i herència. S'introdueix en primer lloc la funció d'utilitat esperada del decisor i, utilitzant programació dinàmica, es dedueix l'estratègia que reporta una utilitat més gran (no vendre/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment zero/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment ú). L'òptim depèn del preu de la pòlissa venuda i de paràmetres personals de l'individu. Es troba una expressió analítica per l'estratègia òptima i es realitza un anàlisi de sensibilitat.

Optimal perfusion computed tomographic thresholds for ischemic core and penumbra are not time dependent in the clinically relevant time window.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study aims to determine whether perfusion computed tomographic (PCT) thresholds for delineating the ischemic core and penumbra are time dependent or time independent in patients presenting with symptoms of acute stroke. METHODS: Two hundred seventeen patients were evaluated in a retrospective, multicenter study. Patients were divided into those with either persistent occlusion or recanalization. All patients received admission PCT and follow-up imaging to determine the final ischemic core, which was then retrospectively matched to the PCT images to identify optimal thresholds for the different PCT parameters. These thresholds were assessed for significant variation over time since symptom onset. RESULTS: In the persistent occlusion group, optimal PCT parameters that did not significantly change with time included absolute mean transit time, relative mean transit time, relative cerebral blood flow, and relative cerebral blood volume when time was restricted to 15 hours after symptom onset. Conversely, the recanalization group showed no significant time variation for any PCT parameter at any time interval. In the persistent occlusion group, the optimal threshold to delineate the total ischemic area was the relative mean transit time at a threshold of 180%. In patients with recanalization, the optimal parameter to predict the ischemic core was relative cerebral blood volume at a threshold of 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Time does not influence the optimal PCT thresholds to delineate the ischemic core and penumbra in the first 15 hours after symptom onset for relative mean transit time and relative cerebral blood volume, the optimal parameters to delineate ischemic core and penumbra.

The Political Economy of Active Labor-Market Policy

Active labor-market policies (ALMPs) have developed significantly over the past two decades across Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, with substantial cross-national differences in terms of both extent and overall orientation. The objective of this article is to account for cross-national variation in this policy field. It starts by reviewing existing scholarship concerning political, institutional, and ideational determinants of ALMPs. It then argues that ALMP is too broad a category to be used without further specification, and it develops a typology of four different types of ALMPs: incentive reinforcement, employment assistance, occupation, and human capital investment. These are discussed and examined through ALMP expenditure profiles in selected countries. The article uses this typology to analyze ALMP trajectories in six Western European countries and shows that the role of this instrument changes dramatically over time. It concludes that there is little regularity in the political determinants of ALMPs. In contrast, it finds strong institutional and ideational effects, nested in the interaction between the changing economic context and existing labor-market policies.

Price transmission and market power analysis in the Spanish seafood market chain

[cat] Espanya és un dels principals mercats de productes pesquers d’Europa i del món. El consum de productes pesquers ha estat tradicionalment molt important a Espanya, el 2005 es varen consumir 36,7 kg per persona (MAPA, diversos anys). Malgrat això, el mercat i cóm interactuen els diversos nivells de la cadena de comercialització han gaudit de poca atenció. En aquest estudi, utilitzant dades setmanals, s’analitza per als dotze principals productes pesquers, l’elasticitat en la transmissió de preus al llarg de la cadena de comercialització a Espanya (llotja, mercat central i detallista). Finalment s’investiga la presència d’assimetria en la transmissió de preus entre aquests nivells de mercat. Els resultats obtinguts tenen importants implicacions a l’hora d’analitzar la demanda, poder de mercat i marges al llarg del mercat per als productes pesquers.

Measuring conduct and cost parameters in the Spanish air transport market

This paper estimates a model of airline competition for the Spanish air transport market. I test the explanatory power of alternative oligopoly models with capacity constraints. In addition, I analyse the degree of density economies. Results show that Spanish airlines conduct follows a price-leadership scheme so that it is less competitive than the Cournot solution. I also find evidence that thin routes can be considered as natural monopolies