Impacts of environmental change on water resources in the Mount Kenya Region

Water resources are becoming increasingly scarce in the Mt. Kenya region. Land use and climate change may pose additional challenges to water management in the future. In order to assess the impacts of environmental change, the NRM3 Streamflow Model, a simple, semi-distributed, grid-based water balance model, is evaluated as a tool for discharge prediction in six meso-scale catchments on the western slopes of Mt. Kenya, and used to analyse the impact of land use and climate change scenarios on water resources.

Life-patterns on the periphery : a humanities base for development imperatives and their application in the Chicago city-region

Life-Patterns on the Periphery: A Humanities Base for Development Imperatives and their Application in the Chicago City-Region is informed by the need to bring diverse fields together in order to tackle issues related to the contemporary city-region. By honouring the long-term economic, social, political, and ecological imperatives that form the fabric of healthy, productive, sustainable communities, it becomes possible to setup political structures and citizen will to develop distinct places that result in the overlapping of citizen life patterns, setting the stage for citizen action and interaction. Based in humanities scholarship, the four imperatives act as checks on each other so that no one imperative is solely honoured in development. Informed by Heidegger, Arendt, deCerteau, Casey, and others, their foundation in the humanities underlines their importance, while at the same time creating a stage where all fields can contribute to actualizing this balance in practice. For this project, theoretical assistance has been greatly borrowed from architecture, planning theory, urban theory, and landscape urbanism, including scholarship from Saskia Sassen, John Friedmann, William Cronon, Jane Jacobs, Joel Garreau, Alan Berger, and many others. This project uses the Chicago city-region as a site, specifically the Interstate 80 and 88 corridors extending west from Chicago. Both transportation corridors are divided into study regions, providing the opportunity to examine a broad variety of population and development densities. Through observational research, a picture of each study region can be extrapolated, analyzed, and understood with respect to the four imperatives. This is put to use in this project by studying region-specific suggestions for future development moves, culminating in some universal steps that can be taken to develop stronger communities and set both the research site specifically and North American city-regions in general on a path towards healthy, productive, sustainable development.

Shear band evolution in Zr/Hf-based bulk metallic glasses under static and dynamic indentations

Bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) exhibit superior mechanical properties as compared with other conventional materials and have been proposed for numerous engineering and technological applications. Zr/Hf-based BMGs or tungsten reinforced BMG composites are considered as a potential replacement for depleted uranium armor-piercing projectiles because of their ability to form localized shear bands during impact, which has been known to be the dominant plastic deformation mechanism in BMGs. However, in conventional tensile, compressive and bending tests, limited ductility has been observed because of fracture initiation immediately following the shear band formation. To fully investigate shear band characteristics, indentation tests that can confine the deformation in a limited region have been pursued. In this thesis, a detailed investigation of thermal stability and mechanical deformation behavior of Zr/Hf-based BMGs is conducted. First, systematic studies had been implemented to understand the influence of relative compositions of Zr and Hf on thermal stability and mechanical property evolution. Second, shear band evolution under indentations were investigated experimentally and theoretically. Three kinds of indentation studies were conducted on BMGs in the current study. (a) Nano-indentation to determine the mechanical properties as a function of Hf/Zr content. (b) Static Vickers indentation on bonded split specimens to investigate the shear band evolution characteristics beneath the indention. (c) Dynamic Vickers indentation on bonded split specimens to investigate the influence of strain rate. It was found in the present work that gradually replacing Zr by Hf remarkably increases the density and improves the mechanical properties. However, a slight decrease in glass forming ability with increasing Hf content has also been identified through thermodynamic analysis although all the materials in the current study were still found to be amorphous. Many indentation studies have revealed only a few shear bands surrounding the indent on the top surface of the specimen. This small number of shear bands cannot account for the large plastic deformation beneath the indentations. Therefore, a bonded interface technique has been used to observe the slip-steps due to shear band evolution. Vickers indentations were performed along the interface of the bonded split specimen at increasing loads. At small indentation loads, the plastic deformation was primarily accommodated by semi-circular primary shear bands surrounding the indentation. At higher loads, secondary and tertiary shear bands were formed inside this plastic zone. A modified expanding cavity model was then used to predict the plastic zone size characterized by the shear bands and to identify the stress components responsible for the evolution of the various types of shear bands. The applicability of various hardness—yield-strength ( H −σγ ) relationships currently available in the literature for bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) is also investigated. Experimental data generated on ZrHf-based BMGs in the current study and those available elsewhere on other BMG compositions were used to validate the models. A modified expanding-cavity model, employed in earlier work, was extended to propose a new H −σγ relationship. Unlike previous models, the proposed model takes into account not only the indenter geometry and the material properties, but also the pressure sensitivity index of the BMGs. The influence of various model parameters is systematically analyzed. It is shown that there is a good correlation between the model predictions and the experimental data for a wide range of BMG compositions. Under dynamic Vickers indentation, a decrease in indentation hardness at high loading rate was observed compared to static indentation hardness. It was observed that at equivalent loads, dynamic indentations produced more severe deformation features on the loading surface than static indentations. Different from static indentation, two sets of widely spaced semi-circular shear bands with two different curvatures were observed. The observed shear band pattern and the strain rate softening in indentation hardness were rationalized based on the variations in the normal stress on the slip plane, the strain rate of shear and the temperature rise associated with the indentation deformation. Finally, a coupled thermo-mechanical model is proposed that utilizes a momentum diffusion mechanism for the growth and evolution of the final spacing of shear bands. The influence of strain rate, confinement pressure and critical shear displacement on the shear band spacing, temperature rise within the shear band, and the associated variation in flow stress have been captured and analyzed. Consistent with the known pressure sensitive behavior of BMGs, the current model clearly captures the influence of the normal stress in the formation of shear bands. The normal stress not only reduces the time to reach critical shear displacement but also causes a significant temperature rise during the shear band formation. Based on this observation, the variation of shear band spacing in a typical dynamic indentation test has been rationalized. The temperature rise within a shear band can be in excess of 2000K at high strain rate and high confinement pressure conditions. The associated drop in viscosity and flow stress may explain the observed decrease in fracture strength and indentation hardness. The above investigations provide valuable insight into the deformation behavior of BMGs under static and dynamic loading conditions. The shear band patterns observed in the above indentation studies can be helpful to understand and model the deformation features under complex loading scenarios such as the interaction of a penetrator with armor. Future work encompasses (1) extending and modifying the coupled thermo-mechanical model to account for the temperature rise in quasistatic deformation; and (2) expanding this model to account for the microstructural variation-crystallization and free volume migration associated with the deformation.

Retention of canopy trees as biological legacies for balancing woody biomass production and biodiversity in managed aspen forests of the Great Lakes Region

Green-tree retention under the conceptual framework of ecological forestry has the potential to provide both biomass feedstock for industry and maintain quality wildlife habitat. I examined the effects of retained canopy trees as biological legacies (“legacy trees”) in aspen (Populus spp.) forests on above-ground live woody biomass, understory plant floristic quality, and bird diversity. Additionally, I evaluated habitat quality for a high conservation priority species, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera). I selected 27 aspen-dominated forest stands in northern Wisconsin with nine stands in each of three legacy tree retention treatments (conifer retention, hardwood retention, and clearcuts or no retention) across a chronosequence (4-36 years post-harvest). Conifer retention stands had greater legacy tree and all tree species biomass but lower regenerating tree biomass than clearcuts. Coniferous but not hardwood legacy trees appeared to suppress regenerating tree biomass. I evaluated the floristic quality of the understory plant assemblage by estimating the mean coefficient of conservatism (C). Mean C was lower in young stands than in middle-age or old stands; there was a marginally significant (p=0.058) interaction effect between legacy tree retention treatment and stand age. Late-seral plant species were positively associated with stand age and legacy tree diameter or age revealing an important relationship between legacy tree retention and stand development. Bird species richness was greatest in stands with hardwood retention particularly early in stand development. Six conservation priority bird species were indicators of legacy tree retention or clearcuts. Retention of legacy trees in aspen stands provided higher quality nest habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler than clearcuts based on high pairing success and nesting activity. Retention of hardwoods, particularly northern red oak (Quercus rubra), yielded the most consistent positive effects in this study with the highest bird species richness and the highest quality habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler. This treatment maintained stand biomass comparable to clearcuts and did not suppress regenerating tree biomass. In conclusion, legacy tree retention can enhance even-aged management techniques to produce a win-win scenario for the conservation of declining bird species and late-seral understory plants and for production of woody biomass feedstock from naturally regenerating aspen forests.

Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Multimetallic complexes based on phosphine- and phosphine oxide- appended p-hydroquinones

Presented here, is the work done with a series of binucleating ligands based on phosphine and phosphine oxide appended p-hydroquinones and their reactions towards various metals sources. The long term goal of the project was to produce coordination polymers that would have novel electronic, magnetic, and optical properties which would be of use in the field of molecular electronics. Binucleating ligands contained a p-hydroquinone motif in which various phosphine- and phosphine oxide substituents have been placed in the ortho position relative to each of the hydroxy position were synthesized. A previously published synthetic method for such lugands utilized n-BuLi to form a phenyl lithium intermediate which was quenched with chlorodiphenylphosphine. This technique was also used to produce a ligand with diisopropylphosphine groups. Phosphine ligands, containing the same structural motif, were also generated using LDA as the lithiating agent. This technique was found to be higher yielding. Phosphine chalcogenide ligands were accessed by further oxidizing the low valent phosphorous centers with either hydrogen peroxide or with elemental sulfur. These ligands were characterized using multinuclear NMR, low and high resolution mass spectroscopy, FTIR, and single crystal X-ray diffraction. Their electrochemical properties were explored with cyclic voltammetry. The phosphine appended ligands were used in the synthesis of a several bimetallic complexes. It was found that the ligands readily reacted with NiCp2 and NiCp*2, displacing one of the cyclopentadiene (Cp) or pentamethylcyclopentadiene (Cp*) rings. A cyclopentadiene complexes, containing diisopropylphine, was readily oxidized by[FeCp2]PF6 to give a NMR silent mixed valence complex. Cyclic voltammetry of these complexes showed a number of reversible waves with a large potential separation. The mixed valence compounds also showed a large absorbance band in the NIR region which was assigned to be an intervalence charge transfer. The cyclic voltammetry and NIR spectroscopy suggest that these systems are very capable of efficient metal-to-metal charge transfer. These complexes were characterized by multinuclear NMR, single crystal X-ray diffraction, UV/VIS-NIR spectroscopy and elemental analysis. The phosphine oxide ligands were reacted with a variety of different metal sources but limited success was gained in obtaining single crystals, allowing structural characterization of these compounds. Single crystals were obtained from products generated by reacting the diphenylphosphine oxide ligand with (Bipy)Cu(NO3)2 and Cu(NO3)2. In all cases the ligand had been further oxidized to a 2,5-dihydroxy-1,4-benzoquinone motif. In the reaction between the diphenylphosphine oxide ligand and (Bipy)Cu(NO3)2 it was found that the phosphine oxide moiety was involved with intermolecular coordination leading to the formation of a one-dimensional polymer composed of a series of bimetallic complexes tethered together. When NaSbF6 was present in the reaction with (Bipy)Cu(NO3)2 a unique tetrametallic complex was formed. Here the phospine oxide moiety was oriented so that two bimetallic complexes were bound together. If only Cu(NO3)2 was present, a two-dimensional polymeric sheet was formed where the ligand was present in two different coordination modes. The electronic properties of these complexes remained to be assessed.

Applications of LiDAR remote sensing of forest structure in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA

We used active remote sensing technology to characterize forest structure in a northern temperate forest on a landscape- and local-level in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Specifically, we used a form of active remote sensing called light detection and ranging (e.g., LiDAR) to aid in the depiction of current forest structural stages and total canopy gap area estimation. On a landscape-level, LiDAR data are shown not only to be a useful tool in characterizing forest structure, in both coniferous and deciduous forest cover types, but also as an effective basis for data-driven surrogates for classification of forest structure. On a local-level, LiDAR data are shown to be a benchmark reference point to evaluate field-based canopy gap area estimations, due to the highly accurate nature of such remotely sensed data. The application of LiDAR remote sensed data can help facilitate current and future sustainable forest management.

Versatility of the abductor hallucis muscle as a conjoined or distally-based flap

Soft tissue coverage of the medial ankle and foot remains a difficult, challenging, and often frustrating problem to patients as well as surgeons. To our knowledge, the abductor hallucis muscle flap is not frequently used and only a few well documented cases were found in literature. The purpose of this paper is to report and to present the long-term results of a series of four patients who underwent reconstruction of foot and ankle defects with the abductor hallucis muscle flap.In two cases, the abductor hallucis muscle flap was transposed in combination with a medialis pedis flap to cover a medial ankle defect, whereas in another case it was combined with a medial plantar flap. In this latter case, the muscle flap served to fill up a calcaneal dead space after osteomyelitis debridement, whereas the cutaneous flap was used to replace debrided skin at the heel. The abductor hallucis flap was used as a distally-based turnover flap to cover a large forefoot defect in a fourth case. Follow-up period ranged between 18 and 64 months (mean 43.3). In the early postoperative period, two flaps healed completely In two patients marginal flap necrosis occurred which was subsequently skin grafted. No donor-site complication occurred in any of the patients. In all cases, protective sensation of the skin was satisfactory as early as 6 months. In two cases mild hyperkeratosis at the skin graft border to the sole skin (non-weight bearing area of medial plantar and medialis pedis flap donor site) was present, but probably related to poor foot care. All patients were fully mobile as early as 3 months after treatment. In the long-term follow-up (43.3 months), all flaps provided with durable coverage. Functional gait deficit due to consumtion of the abductor hallucis muscle was not apparent.Our long-term results demonstrated that the abductor hallucis muscle flap is a versatile, and reliable flap suitable for the reconstruction of foot and ankle defects. Utilizing the abductor hallucis muscle as a pedicled flap (distally or proximally-based) with or without conjoined regional fasciocutaneous flaps offers a successful and durable alternative to microsurgical tree flaps for small to moderate defects over the calcaneus region, medial ankle, medial foot, and forefoot with exposed bone, tendon, or joint.

UNDERSTANDING FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS AND THE EFFECTS OF SHEA TREE Vitellaria paradoxa DISTRIBUTION IN AGROFORESTRY PARKLANDS OF THE UPPER WEST REGION, GHANA

Agroforestry parklands represent a vast majority of the agricultural landscape under subsistent-oriented farming in semi-arid West Africa. Parklands are characterized by the growth of well- maintained trees (e.g., shea) on cultivated fields as a result of both environmental and human influences. Shea (Vitellaria paradoxa) provides a cultural and economic benefit to the local people of Ghana, especially women. Periods between traditional fallow rotation systems have reduced recently due to agricultural development and a demand for higher production. As a result, shea trees, which regenerate during fallow periods, has decreased over the landscape. The aim of this study was to determine beneficial spatial distributions of V. paradoxa to maintain high yields of staple crops, and how management of V. paradoxa will differ between male and female farmers as a result of farmer based needs and use of shea. Vegetation growth and grain yield of maize (Zea mays) associated with individual trees, clumped trees, and open fields were measured. Soil moisture and light availability were also measured to determine how V. paradoxa affected resource availability of maize in either clumped or scattered distributions of V. paradoxa. As expected, light availability increased as measurement locations moved farther away from all trees. However, soil moisture was actually greater under trees in clumps than under individual trees. Maize stalk height and cob length showed no difference between clumped and single trees at each measurement location. Grain yield per plot and per cob increased as measurement locations moved farther from single trees, but was actually greater near clumped trees that in the open field subplots. Cob length and maize stalk height increased with greater light availability, but grain yield per cob or per plot showed no relationship with light, but were not affected by soil moisture. Conversely, grain yield increased with increasing soil moisture, but had no relationship with light availability. Initial farming capital is the largest constraint to female farmers; therefore the collection of shea can help provide women with added income that could meet their specific farming needs. Our data indicate that overall effects of maintaining clumped distributions of V. paradoxa provided beneficial microclimates for staple crops when compared to single trees. It is recommended that male and female farmers allow shea to grow in clumped spatial distributions rather than maintaining scattered, individual trees.

Study of particle movement in the nearshore region of Lake Superior with radioisotope tracers

Biogeochemical processes in the coastal region, including the coastal area of the Great Lakes, are of great importance due to the complex physical, chemical and biological characteristics that differ from those on either the adjoining land or open water systems. Particle-reactive radioisotopes, both naturally occurring (210Pb, 210Po and 7Be) and man-made (137Cs), have proven to be useful tracers for these processes in many systems. However, a systematic isotope study on the northwest coast of the Keweenaw Peninsula in Lake Superior has not yet been performed. In this dissertation research, field sampling, laboratory measurements and numerical modeling were conducted to understand the biogeochemistry of the radioisotope tracers and some particulate-related coastal processes. In the first part of the dissertation, radioisotope activities of 210Po and 210Pb in a variability of samples (dissolved, suspended particle, sediment trap materials, surficial sediment) were measured. A completed picture of the distribution and disequilibrium of this pair of isotopes was drawn. The application of a simple box model utilizing these field observations reveals short isotope residence times in the water column and a significant contribution of sediment resuspension (for both particles and isotopes). The results imply a highly dynamic coastal region. In the second part of this dissertation, this conclusion is examined further. Based on intensive sediment coring, the spatial distribution of isotope inventories (mainly 210Pb, 137Cs and 7Be) in the nearshore region was determined. Isotope-based focusing factors categorized most of the sampling sites as non- or temporary depositional zones. A twodimensional steady-state box-in-series model was developed and applied to individual transects with the 210Pb inventories as model input. The modeling framework included both water column and upper sediments down to the depth of unsupported 210Pb penetration. The model was used to predict isotope residence times and cross-margin fluxes of sediments and isotopes at different locations along each transect. The time scale for sediment focusing from the nearshore to offshore regions of the transect was on the order of 10 years. The possibility of sediment longshore movement was indicated by high inventory ratios of 137Cs: 210Pb. Local deposition of fine particles, including fresh organic carbon, may explain the observed distribution of benthic organisms such as Diporeia. In the last part of this dissertation, isotope tracers, 210Pb and 210Po, were coupled into a hydrodynamic model for Lake Superior. The model was modified from an existing 2-D finite difference physical-biological model which has previously been successfully applied on Lake Superior. Using the field results from part one of this dissertation as initial conditions, the model was used to predict the isotope distribution in the water column; reasonable results were achieved. The modeling experiments demonstrated the potential for using a hydrodynamic model to study radioisotope biogeochemistry in the lake, although further refinements are necessary.

Genetic variation and demographic history of the Haplochromis laparogramma group of Lake Victoria-An analysis based on SINEs and mitochondrial DNA

More than 500 endemic haplochromine cichlid species inhabit Lake Victoria. This striking species diversity is a classical example of recent explosive adaptive radiation thought to have happened within the last similar to 15,000 years. In this study, we examined the population structure and historical demography of 3 pelagic haplochromine cichlid species that resemble in morphology and have similar niche, Haplochromis (Yssichromis) laparogramma, Haplochromis (Y.) pyrrhocephalus, and Haplochromis (Y.) sp. "glaucocephalus". We investigated the sequences of the mitochondrial DNA control region and the insertion patterns of short interspersed elements (SINEs) of 759 individuals. We show that sympatric forms are genetically differentiated in 4 of 6 cases, but we also found apparent weakening of the genetic differentiation in areas with turbid water. We estimated the timings of population expansion and species divergence to coincide with the refilling of the lake at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. We also found that estimates can be altered significantly by the choice of the shape of the molecular clock. If we employ the nonlinear clock model of evolutionary rates in which the rates are higher towards the recent, the population expansion was dated at around the event of desiccation of the lake ca. 17,000 YBP. Thus, we succeeded in clarifying the species and population structure of closely related Lake Victoria cichlids and in showing the importance of applying appropriate clock calibrations in elucidating recent evolutionary events. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Method of collaborative detection of autonomous transport vehicles based on laser rangefinder data

To master changing performance demands, autonomous transport vehicles are deployed to make inhouse material flow applications more flexible. The socalled cellular transport system consists of a multitude of small scale transport vehicles which shall be able to form a swarm. Therefore the vehicles need to detect each other, exchange information amongst each other and sense their environment. By provision of peripherally acquired information of other transport entities, more convenient decisions can be made in terms of navigation and collision avoidance. This paper is a contribution to collective utilization of sensor data in the swarm of cellular transport vehicles.

Performance Availability and Anticipatory Change Planning of Intralogistics Systems: A Simulation-Based Approach

In recent years, the ability to respond to real time changes in operations and reconfigurability in equipment are likely to become essential characteristics for next generation intralogistics systems as well as the level of automation, cost effectiveness and maximum throughput. In order to cope with turbulences and the increasing level of dynamic conditions, future intralogistics systems have to feature short reaction times, high flexibility in processes and the ability to adapt to frequent changes. The increasing autonomy and complexity in processes of today’s intralogistics systems requires new and innovative management approaches, which allow a fast response to (un)anticipated events and adaptation to changing environment in order to reduce the negative consequences of these events. The ability of a system to respond effectively a disruption depends more on the decisions taken before the event than those taken during or after. In this context, anticipatory change planning can be a usable approach for managers to make contingency plans for intralogistics systems to deal with the rapidly changing marketplace. This paper proposes a simulation-based decision making framework for the anticipatory change planning of intralogistics systems. This approach includes the quantitative assessments based on the simulation in defined scenarios as well as the analysis of performance availability that combines the flexibility corridors of different performance dimensions. The implementation of the approach is illustrated on a new intralogistics technology called the Cellular Transport System.

Palaeohydrology, fires and vegetation succession in the southern Baltic during the last 7500 years reconstructed from a raised bog based on multi-proxy data

We present the first 7500 yr long multi-proxy record from a raised bog located at the southern Baltic coast, Poland. Testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, pollen and microscopic charcoal were used to reconstruct environmental changes in Pomerania (northern Poland, Kaszuby Lakeland) from a 7-m thick peat archive of Stążki bog dated 5500 BC–AD 1250. We obtained a record of proxies representing different spatial scales: regional vegetation changed simultaneously with local vegetation, and testate amoebae showed a pattern of change similar to that of pollen and plant macrofossils. On the basis of the combined proxies, we distinguished three hydroclimatic stages: moist conditions 5500–3450 BC, drier conditions with regionally increased fires up to 600 BC, and again moist conditions from 600 BC onward. During the drier interval, a first climatic shift to wetter conditions at 1700 BC is indicated by regional pollen as the replacement of Corylus by Carpinus, and locally by, e.g., the increase of Hyalosphenia elegans and mire plants such as Sphagnum sec. Cuspidata. Furthermore, we observed a correlation since 600 BC among the re-expansion of Carpinus (after a sudden decline ca. 950 BC), increased peat accumulation, increase of Hyalosphenia species, and fewer fires, suggesting lower evapotranspiration and a stable high water table in the bog. Fagus started to expand after AD 810 gradually replacing Carpinus, which was possibly due to a gradually more oceanic climate, though we cannot exclude human impact on the forests. Peat accumulation, determined by radiocarbon dating, varied with bog surface wetness. The hydroclimatic phases found in Stążki peatland are similar to moisture changes recorded in other sites from Poland and Europe. This is the first detailed record of hydroclimatic change during the Holocene in the southern Baltic region, so it forms a reference site for further studies on other southern Baltic bogs that are in progress.