Climate oscillations and species interactions: large-scale congruence but regional differences in the phylogeographic structures of an alpine plant and its monophagous insect

Aim. To predict the fate of alpine interactions involving specialized species, using a monophagous beetle and its host-plant as a case study. Location. The Alps. Methods. We investigated genetic structuring of the herbivorous beetle Oreina gloriosa and its specific host-plant Peucedanum ostruthium. We used genome fingerprinting (in the insect and the plant) and sequence data (in the insect) to compare the distribution of the main gene pools in the two associated species and to estimate divergence time in the insect, a proxy for the temporal origin of the interaction. We quantified the similarity in spatial genetic structures by performing a Procrustes analysis, a tool from the shape theory. Finally, we simulated recolonization of an empty space analogous to the deglaciated Alps just after ice retreat by two lineages from two species showing unbalanced dependence, to examine how timing of the recolonization process, as well as dispersal capacities of associated species, could explain the observed pattern. Results. Contrasting with expectations based on their asymmetrical dependence, patterns in the beetle and plant were congruent at a large scale. Exceptions occurred at a regional scale in areas of admixture, matching known suture zones in Alpine plants. Simulations using a lattice-based model suggested these empirical patterns arose during or soon after recolonization, long after the estimated origin of the interaction c. 0.5 million years ago. Main conclusions. Species-specific interactions are scarce in alpine habitats because glacial cycles have limited opportunities for coevolution. Their fate, however, remains uncertain under climate change. Here we show that whereas most dispersal routes are paralleled at large scale, regional incongruence implies that the destinies of the species might differ under changing climate. This may be a consequence of the host-dependence of the beetle that locally limits the establishment of dispersing insects.

Do brief alcohol motivational interventions work like we think they do?

BACKGROUND: Questions remain about how brief motivational interventions (BMIs) for unhealthy alcohol use work, and addressing these questions may be important for improving their efficacy. Therefore, we assessed the effects of various characteristics of BMIs on drinking outcomes across 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: Audio recordings of 314 BMIs were coded. We used the global rating scales of the Motivational Interviewing Skills Code (MISC) 2.1: counselor's acceptance, empathy, and motivational interviewing (MI) spirit, and patient's self-exploration were rated. MI proficiency was defined as counselor's rating scale scores ≥5. We also used the structure, confrontation, and advice subscale scores of the Therapy Process Rating Scale and the Working Alliance Inventory. We examined these process characteristics in interventions across 1 U.S. RCT of middle-aged medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use (n = 124) and 2 Swiss RCTs of young men with binge drinking in a nonclinical setting: Swiss-one (n = 62) and Swiss-two (n = 128). We assessed the associations between these characteristics and drinks/d reported by participants 3 to 6 months after study entry. RESULTS: In all 3 RCTs, mean MISC counselor's rating scales scores were consistent with MI proficiency. In overdispersed Poisson regression models, most BMI characteristics were not significantly associated with drinks/d in follow-up. In the U.S. RCT, confrontation and self-exploration were associated with more drinking. Giving advice was significantly associated with less drinking in the Swiss-one RCT. Contrary to expectations, MI spirit was not consistently associated with drinking across studies. CONCLUSIONS: Across different populations and settings, intervention characteristics viewed as central to efficacious BMIs were neither robust nor consistent predictors of drinking outcome. Although there may be alternative reasons why the level of MI processes was not predictive of outcomes in these studies (limited variability in scores), efforts to understand what makes BMIs efficacious may require attention to factors beyond intervention process characteristics typically examined.

Circulating matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP) species are refractory to vitamin K treatment in a new case of Keutel syndrome.

Summary.  Background and objectives: Matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (MGP), a vitamin K-dependent protein, is recognized as a potent local inhibitor of vascular calcification. Studying patients with Keutel syndrome (KS), a rare autosomal recessive disorder resulting from MGP mutations, provides an opportunity to investigate the functions of MGP. The purpose of this study was (i) to investigate the phenotype and the underlying MGP mutation of a newly identified KS patient, and (ii) to investigate MGP species and the effect of vitamin K supplements in KS patients. Methods: The phenotype of a newly identified KS patient was characterized with specific attention to signs of vascular calcification. Genetic analysis of the MGP gene was performed. Circulating MGP species were quantified and the effect of vitamin K supplements on MGP carboxylation was studied. Finally, we performed immunohistochemical staining of tissues of the first KS patient originally described focusing on MGP species. Results: We describe a novel homozygous MGP mutation (c.61+1G>A) in a newly identified KS patient. No signs of arterial calcification were found, in contrast to findings in MGP knockout mice. This patient is the first in whom circulating MGP species have been characterized, showing a high level of phosphorylated MGP and a low level of carboxylated MGP. Contrary to expectations, vitamin K supplements did not improve the circulating carboxylated MGP levels. Phosphorylated MGP was also found to be present in the first KS patient originally described. Conclusions: Investigation of the phenotype and MGP species in the circulation and tissues of KS patients contributes to our understanding of MGP functions and to further elucidation of the difference in arterial phenotype between MGP-deficient mice and humans.

Department of Administrative Services Four Year Strategic Plan, FY 2012-2015

Through the strategic initiatives outlined in this plan, and incorporation of those initiatives into the department’s business plans, DAS believes other departments will be able to concentrate their resources on core missions and rely on DAS for the administrative expertise for their operations. This realignment of effort will result in both an increase in efficiency and a reduction in overall cost to State government. Areas of human resources, information technology, financial services, and general services will be provided statewide in a comprehensive, cohesive, and manageable form with opportunity to make those services available to other public entities outside of state government where efficiency and economics support that cooperation.

One Unshakable Vision: World Class Schools for Iowa, October 3, 2011

Iowans have long shared a deep commitment to giving our children the best education possible. We recognize young people today must meet higher expectations than ever to thrive in this global, knowledge-based economy. For the sake of our children and our state, it is vitally important that we build on our tradition of excellence to improve our schools. Iowa’s house of education still has a strong foundation, but it is also in need of a major remodel to be ready for the days ahead.

Dire le futur au Moyen Age : du prologue au récit : du Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala

S'inscrivant dans le domaine de l'analyse des relations temporelles dans les textes, la présente étude est consacrée à la notion du futur définie en tant qu'anticipation sur les événements à venir dans le récit. Ainsi, la recherche en question se propose de mettre en lumière les différents mécanismes d'anticipation propres aux récits d'aventures au Moyen Âge. Recourant aux moyens heuristiques existants (les bases de la théorie de la réception telle qu'elle est représentée dans les travaux de Jauss, Eco et Greimas), cette thèse se concentre sur l'étude du prologue de l'oeuvre littéraire dont elle élabore une grille de lecture particulière qui tient compte de la complexité de la notion du futur envisagée aux plans grammatical (formes verbales du futur), rhétorique (la figure de la prolepse) et littéraire (les scénarios et les isotopies). La démarche de la lecture détaillée du prologue adoptée au cours de ce travail s'applique d'abord au Chevalier au Lion de Chrétien de Troyes, texte fondateur du corpus, qui constitue, pour parler avec Philippe Walter, un vrai « drame du temps ». L'étude des mécanismes d'anticipation mis en place dans le prologue se prolonge ensuite dans les chapitres consacrés à Claris et Laris et au Chevalier au Lion de Pierre Sala, deux réécritures du célèbre roman du maître champenois. Datant, respectivement, du XIIIe et du début du XVIe siècle, ces oeuvres permettent de saisir le chemin parcouru par le futur dans son aspect thématique et diachronique, ce qui est particulièrement propice au repérage des critères qui influencent l'attente du lecteur par rapport aux événements à venir au fil des siècles. Ainsi, à côté des moyens d'expression « standards » du futur (scénarios intertextuels et isotopies), la présente recherche fait apparaître d'autres facteurs qui influencent l'anticipation, notamment le procédé de la disputatio, le recours à la satire, la démarche de l'engagement indirect et l'opposition vers/prose. La seconde partie de la thèse qui traite, d'un côté, des récits consacrés à la fée Mélusine de Jean d'Arras et de Coudrette, du Livre du Cuer d'amours espris de René d'Anjou de l'autre, sert à vérifier dans quelle mesure la démarche choisie s'applique à des oeuvres du Moyen Âge tardif qui combinent des éléments empruntés à la tradition antérieure avec des éléments d'autre provenance. L'analyse de Mélusine et du Livre du Cuer conduit à ajouter deux facteurs supplémentaires qui influencent l'attente du lecteur, à savoir la démarche de l'engagement partiel et le recours au genre judiciaire. Cette étude démontre que le traitement du futur est d'un enjeu capital pour lire les textes du Moyen Âge, car il permet au lecteur, dès le prologue, de reconnaître la fin vers laquelle tend le récit et de faire par là- même une lecture enrichie, supérieure à d'autres. Telling the Future in the Middle Ages : from the Prologue to the Narrative. From Chrétien de Troyes ' Chevalier au Lion to Pierre Sala 's Chevalier au Lion. Part of the analyses of the time based relations within the texts, the present study deals with the notion of future characterized as an anticipation of the events to come in the narrative. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to bring to light the various mechanisms of anticipation peculiar to the narratives of adventures in the Middle Ages. Making the use of the existing heuristic instruments (the bases of the theory of the reception as it presents itself in the works by Jauss, Eco and Greimas), this thesis is dedicated to the study of the prologue of the work of fiction by means of a particular key for reading which takes into account the complexity of the notion of future with regard to its grammatical side (future tenses), to its rhetorical side (prolepse) and to its literary side (scenario and isotopy). First of all, the close reading of the prologue used in this work is applied to Chrétien de Troyes's Chevalier au Lion (Lion Knight), the founding text of our literary corpus, which represents, according to Philippe Walter, the real « drama of Time ». Then, the study of the mechanisms of anticipation in the prologue is carried over to the chapters devoted to Claris et Laris and to Pierre Sala's Chevalier au Lion, two romances that rewrite Chrétien de Troyes' famous work. Written, respectively, in the XIIIth and in the beginning of the XVI century, these romances enable the reader to ascertain the changes in the manner of telling the future from the thematic and diachronic point of view : this is particularly convenient to the identification of the criteria which influence the reader's expectations relative to the future events in the course of the centuries. Therefore, next to the « standard » means of expression of future (intertextual scenario and isotopy), the present study reveals other factors which influence the anticipation, in particular the method of the disputatio, the use of the satire, the approach of the indirect commitment and the verse/prose opposition. The second part of the thesis which deals with the narratives concerning the fairy Melusine written by Jean d'Arras and by Coudrette on one hand, with René d'Anjou's Livre du Cuer d'amours espris on the other hand, is used to verify to what extent the chosen approach applies to the works of fiction of the Late Middle Ages that combine the elements from the previous tradition with the elements of other origin. The analysis of Melusine's romances and of the Livre du Cuer brings us to add two new factors which influence the reader's expectations : the approach of the partial commitment, and the use of the legal discourse. This study demonstrates that the manner of telling the future is of the utmost importance to read the texts of the Middle Ages, because it enables the reader to know the end of the story from the very beginning, from the prologue, thus leading to a richer and superior reading.

Seasonal dependence in the solar neutrino flux

Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) solutions of the solar neutrino problem predict a seasonal dependence of the zenith angle distribution of the event rates, due to the nonzero latitude at the Super-Kamiokande site. We calculate this seasonal dependence and compare it with the expectations in the no-oscillation case as well as just-so scenario, in the light of the latest Super-Kamiokande 708-day data. The seasonal dependence can be sizable in the large mixing angle MSW solution and would be correlated with the day-night effect. This may be used to discriminate between MSW and just-so scenarios and should be taken into account in refined fits of the data.

Quand faut-il opérer une rupture de la coiffe des rotateurs [When to operate a rotator cuff tear?]

Rotator cuff disease is the most common pathology causing shoulder pain with an overall prevalence rate of 30%. There is a significant association between increasing age and the presence of rotator cuff tears. Spontaneous healing of clinically relevant tears has not been observed. Although satisfactory pain relief is possible without rotator cuff tendon healing, functional outcome is better for healed repairs. Operative treatment must be considered in the context of the reasonable expectations for success. Repairability and potential of surgically tendon construct to heal are important considerations in surgical indications. There is no difference of outcomes between the arthroscopic and the open techniques.

A Confluence of Risks: Control and Compliance in the World of Unstructured Data, Big Data and the Cloud

The emergence of powerful new technologies, the existence of large quantities of data, and increasing demands for the extraction of added value from these technologies and data have created a number of significant challenges for those charged with both corporate and information technology management. The possibilities are great, the expectations high, and the risks significant. Organisations seeking to employ cloud technologies and exploit the value of the data to which they have access, be this in the form of "Big Data" available from different external sources or data held within the organisation, in structured or unstructured formats, need to understand the risks involved in such activities. Data owners have responsibilities towards the subjects of the data and must also, frequently, demonstrate that they are in compliance with current standards, laws and regulations. This thesis sets out to explore the nature of the technologies that organisations might utilise, identify the most pertinent constraints and risks, and propose a framework for the management of data from discovery to external hosting that will allow the most significant risks to be managed through the definition, implementation, and performance of appropriate internal control activities.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

A steroidomic approach for biomarkers discovery in doping control.

Anti-doping authorities have high expectations of the athlete steroidal passport (ASP) for anabolic-androgenic steroids misuse detection. However, it is still limited to the monitoring of known well-established compounds and might greatly benefit from the discovery of new relevant biomarkers candidates. In this context, steroidomics opens the way to the untargeted simultaneous evaluation of a high number of compounds. Analytical platforms associating the performance of ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) and the high mass-resolving power of quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) mass spectrometers are particularly adapted for such purpose. An untargeted steroidomic approach was proposed to analyse urine samples from a clinical trial for the discovery of relevant biomarkers of testosterone undecanoate oral intake. Automatic peak detection was performed and a filter of reference steroid metabolites mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) values was applied to the raw data to ensure the selection of a subset of steroid-related features. Chemometric tools were applied for the filtering and the analysis of UHPLC-QTOF-MS(E) data. Time kinetics could be assessed with N-way projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (N-PLS-DA) and a detection window was confirmed. Orthogonal projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (O-PLS-DA) classification models were evaluated in a second step to assess the predictive power of both known metabolites and unknown compounds. A shared and unique structure plot (SUS-plot) analysis was performed to select the most promising unknown candidates and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were computed to assess specificity criteria applied in routine doping control. This approach underlined the pertinence to monitor both glucuronide and sulphate steroid conjugates and include them in the athletes passport, while promising biomarkers were also highlighted.

Les règles n'ont plus la cote: une question de contraception ou de choix [To bleed or not--a new dogma or a real choice in contraception?]

On en parle ! Il est question de la suppression des règles par l'administration de contraceptifs oestro-progestatifs (pilule, patch ou anneau vaginal) en cycles longs (cycles prolongés ; cycles étendus ; extended cycles) entraînant des périodes d'aménorrhée, rythmées par des intervalles libres de sept jours sans administration hormonale. L'indication à ce mode de prescription est presque unanimement reconnue pour le traitement des pathologies bénéficiant de la suppression des règles et des fluctuations hormonales inhérentes à l'activité ovarienne. Ce traitement suscite cependant également de l'intérêt pour une indication du type mode de vie. Les modalités thérapeutiques, les avantages et inconvénients sont examinés à la lumière de l'attente des femmes et de leur droit au choix éclairé et libre. Let's talk about it ! Suppression of menstruation, by extending the duration of contraceptives containing estro-progestins (oral contraception, patch or vaginal ring) to long cycles, is a new approach in the field of contraception. These extended cycles aim at obtaining prolonged amenorrhea, interrupted periodically by a free interval of 7 days without hormone intake and thus causing breakthrough bleeding. Pathologies, which are supposed to get some benefit from the suppression of menstruation and of hormone level variations related to ovarian activity, are widely recognized as an indication. Some interest is also coming up for so called life style indications. Treatment issues, advantages and disadvantages are examined in the light of women's expectations and right to access to informed consent and independent choice.

Home Heating and Cooling, 2011

Every year, a typical family in the United States spends around half of its home energy budget on heating and cooling. In Iowa, that percentage can be higher, due to temperature extremes reached during the winter and summer months. Unfortunately, many of those dollars often are wasted, because conditioned air escapes through leaky ceilings, walls and foundations—or flows through inadequately insulated attics, exterior walls and basements. In addition, many heating systems and air conditioners aren’t properly maintained or are more than 10 years old and very inefficient, compared to models being sold today. As a result, it makes sense to analyze your home as a collection of systems that must work together in order to achieve peak energy savings. For example, you won’t get anywhere near the savings you’re expecting from a new furnace if your airhandling ducts are uninsulated and leak at every joint. The most energy-efficient central air-conditioning setup won’t perform to your expectations if your attic insulation is inadequate and can’t reduce solar heat gain to help keep your home cool. And planting the wrong types of trees or shrubs close to your home adversely can affect potential energy savings all year long.

La médecine ambulatoire youth-friendly. [Youth-friendly outpatient care].

Ambulatory pediatric and family medicine takes care of adolescent patients, most of whom regularly consult a physician. Consultations with young people involve issues specifically related to their age. Regarding health care systems and physicians, adolescents' expectations vary from those of adults, not so much in terms of the issues discussed but in terms of the priorities that they give to them. Confidential interviews are not always proposed but are highly appreciated, as are certain personal qualities on the part of the caregivers such as honesty, respect, and friendliness. Finally, easy access to care together with the continuity of care are essential. Prevention of risk behaviors by screening and health education is clearly insufficient. This issue could be approached during the consultation through a psychosocial history. This is a good opportunity to discuss sensitive issues that adolescents seldom bring up themselves. More systematic prevention would probably decrease youth morbidity and mortality, which are both closely related to risk behaviors. To meet these expectations and special health care needs, the World Health Organization has developed the concept of youth-friendly health services. This concept can be applied in both a specialized adolescence center and a pediatric or family practice. Youth-friendly services are still rarely evaluated but seem to bring a clear benefit in terms of patient satisfaction and access to care.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.