The EMS Crisis of the 1990s: Parallels with the present crisis? CEPS Working Document No. 393, 28 March 2014

The EMS crisis of the 1990s illustrated the importance of a lack of confidence in price or exchange rate stability, whereas the present crisis illustrates the importance of a lack of confidence in fiscal sustainability. Theoretically the difference between the two should be minor since, in terms of the real return to an investor, the loss of purchasing power can be the same when inflation is unexpectedly high, or when the nominal value of government debt is cut in a formal default. Experience has shown, however, that expropriation via a formal default is much more disruptive than via inflation. The paper starts by providing a brief review of the EMS crisis, emphasising that the most interesting period might be the ‘post-EMS’ crisis of 1993-95. It then reviews in section 2 the crisis factors, comparing the EMS crisis to today’s euro crisis. Section 3 outlines the main analytical issue, namely the potential instability of high public debt within and outside a monetary union. Section 4 then compares the pressure on public finance coming from the crises for the case of Italy. Section 5 uses data on ‘foreign currency’ debt to disentangle expectations of devaluation/inflation from expectations of default. Section 6 concludes.

Real Driving Emissions: analisi e sperimentazione di metodologie di selezione dei percorsi su strada e di definizione di cicli di laboratorio

La presente tesi si occupa di identificare la metodologia utilizzata per la definizione di percorsi Real Driving Emissions. Nel particolare sono stati individuati due percorsi, uno in piano, definite RDE Moderate Track ed uno in quota, definito RDE Extended Track. Si è anche eseguita una analisi dei cicli su banco a rulli NEDC e WLTC in ottica Real Driving Emissions.

The force of the mother's imagination upon her foetus in utero, still farther considered : in the way of a reply to Dr. Blondel's last book, entitled, The power of the mother's imagination over the foetus examined : to which is added, the twelfth chapter of the first part of a treatise De morbis cutaneis, as it was printed therein many years past : in a letter to Dr. Blondel /

Mode of access: Internet.

Organizational concepts for the sensor-to-shooter world : the impact of real-time information on airpower targeting /

"May 1997."

Operations and Planning in Sustainable Power Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

GPNN: Power studies and applications of a neural network method for detecting gene-gene interactions in studies of human disease

Background The identification and characterization of genes that influence the risk of common, complex multifactorial disease primarily through interactions with other genes and environmental factors remains a statistical and computational challenge in genetic epidemiology. We have previously introduced a genetic programming optimized neural network (GPNN) as a method for optimizing the architecture of a neural network to improve the identification of gene combinations associated with disease risk. The goal of this study was to evaluate the power of GPNN for identifying high-order gene-gene interactions. We were also interested in applying GPNN to a real data analysis in Parkinson's disease. Results We show that GPNN has high power to detect even relatively small genetic effects (2–3% heritability) in simulated data models involving two and three locus interactions. The limits of detection were reached under conditions with very small heritability (

Sustainability metrics for coal power generation in Australia

The basis of this work was to investigate the relative environmental impacts of various power generators knowing that all plants are located in totally different environments and that different receptors will experience different impacts. Based on IChemE sustainability metrics paradigm, we calculated potential environmental indicators (P-EI) that represent the environmental burden of masses of potential pollutants discharged into different receiving media. However, a P-EI may not be of significance, as it may not be expressed at all in different conditions, so to try and include some receiver significance we developed a methodology to take into account some specific environmental indicators (S-EI) that refer to the environmental attributes of a specific site. In this context, we acquired site specific environmental data related to the airsheds and water catchment areas in different locations for a limited number of environmental indicators such as human health (carcinogenic) effects, atmospheric acidification, photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication. The S-EI results from this particular analysis show that atmospheric acidification has highest impact value while health risks due to fly ash emissions are considered not to be as significant. This is due to the fact that many coal power plants in Australia are located in low population density air sheds. The contribution of coal power plants to photochemical (ozone) smog and eutrophication were not significant. In this study, we have considered emission related data trends to reflect technology performance (e.g., P-EI indicators) while a real sustainability metric can be associated only with the specific environmental conditions of the relevant sites (e.g., S-EI indicators).

GPNN: Power studies and applications of a neural network method for detecting gene-gene interactions in studies of human disease

Background: The identification and characterization of genes that influence the risk of common, complex multifactorial disease primarily through interactions with other genes and environmental factors remains a statistical and computational challenge in genetic epidemiology. We have previously introduced a genetic programming optimized neural network (GPNN) as a method for optimizing the architecture of a neural network to improve the identification of gene combinations associated with disease risk. The goal of this study was to evaluate the power of GPNN for identifying high-order gene-gene interactions. We were also interested in applying GPNN to a real data analysis in Parkinson's disease. Results: We show that GPNN has high power to detect even relatively small genetic effects (2-3% heritability) in simulated data models involving two and three locus interactions. The limits of detection were reached under conditions with very small heritability (

Overcoming the problem of loss-in-capacity of calcium oxide in CO2 capture

Calcium oxide has been identified to be one of the best candidates for CO2 capture in zero-emission power-generation systems. However, it suffers a well-known problem of loss-in-capacity (i.e., its capacity of CO2 capture decreases after it undergoes cycles of carbonation/decarbonation). This problem is a potential obstacle to the adoption of the new technologies. This paper proposes a method of fabricating a CaO-based adsorbent without the problem of loss-in-capacity. An adsorbent was fabricated using the method and tested on a thermogravimetric analyzer. It was shown that the sorbent attained a utilization efficiency of more than 90% after 9 cycles of carbonation/decarbonation.

A scalarization technique for computing the power and exponential moments of gaussian random matrices

We consider the problems of computing the power and exponential moments EXs and EetX of square Gaussian random matrices X=A+BWC for positive integer s and real t, where W is a standard normal random vector and A, B, C are appropriately dimensioned constant matrices. We solve the problems by a matrix product scalarization technique and interpret the solutions in system-theoretic terms. The results of the paper are applicable to Bayesian prediction in multivariate autoregressive time series and mean-reverting diffusion processes.

Constructing internationally comparable real income aggregates by combining sparse benchmark data with annual national accounts data: A state-space approach

The importance of availability of comparable real income aggregates and their components to applied economic research is highlighted by the popularity of the Penn World Tables. Any methodology designed to achieve such a task requires the combination of data from several sources. The first is purchasing power parities (PPP) data available from the International Comparisons Project roughly every five years since the 1970s. The second is national level data on a range of variables that explain the behaviour of the ratio of PPP to market exchange rates. The final source of data is the national accounts publications of different countries which include estimates of gross domestic product and various price deflators. In this paper we present a method to construct a consistent panel of comparable real incomes by specifying the problem in state-space form. We present our completed work as well as briefly indicate our work in progress.

Bifurcation analysis of a dynamic power system with SVC devices

Bifurcation analysis is a very useful tool for power system stability assessment. In this paper, detailed investigation of power system bifurcation behaviour is presented. One and two parameter bifurcation analysis are conducted on a 3-bus power system. We also examined the impact of FACTS devices on power system stability through Hopf bifurcation analysis by taking static Var compensator (SVC) as an example. A simplified first-order model of the SVC device is included in the 3-bus sample system. Real and reactive powers are used as bifurcation parameter in the analysis to compare the system oscillatory properties with and without SVC. The simulation results indicate that the linearized system model with SVC enlarge the voltage stability boundary by moving Hopf bifurcation point to higher level of loading conditions. The installation of SVC increases the dynamic stability range of the system, however complicates the Hopf bifurcation behavior of the system

Low-cost real-time gesture recognition

A major impediment to developing real-time computer vision systems has been the computational power and level of skill required to process video streams in real-time. This has meant that many researchers have either analysed video streams off-line or used expensive dedicated hardware acceleration techniques. Recent software and hardware developments have greatly eased the development burden of realtime image analysis leading to the development of portable systems using cheap PC hardware and software exploiting the Multimedia Extension (MMX) instruction set of the Intel Pentium chip. This paper describes the implementation of a computationally efficient computer vision system for recognizing hand gestures using efficient coding and MMX-acceleration to achieve real-time performance on low cost hardware.

O PAPEL DO SINDICATO NA QUALIFICAÇÃO DA MÃO-DE-OBRA: SINDICATO-CIDADÃO

Este trabalho discute a importância de uma nova perspectiva em defesa dos interesses dos trabalhadores para os sindicatos no Brasil, o sindicato-cidadão. O sindicalismo no Brasil nasceu envolvido por um regime capitalista, sofrendo com isso um processo ideológico particular. Em um País em que o Estado por anos - atualmente também - manteve sob o seu controle indireto a maioria dos sindicatos, os embates mais significativos se fizeram de forma inexpressiva, causando em muitos casos a perda por parte dos trabalhadores na constante luta entre capital e trabalho. Essa perda não se reflete somente em questões financeiras, mas sim, e mais importante ainda, em perdas de desenvolvimento do trabalhador em seu nível técnico e mais preocupante em seu nível social. Procurando entender a participação das entidades sindicais na recuperação da força do trabalhador é que se propôs este trabalho, analisando os programas de qualificação do governo geridos por órgãos de caráter sindical. Foram examinados os dados do programa PLANFOR, PNQ e Caravana do Trabalho do Governo do Estado de São Paulo e também os dados disponibilizados pelo Instituto de Estudos e Pesquisas do Setor Energético IEPE, como órgão gerador dos programas de qualificação desenvolvidos e financiados pelo Estado com recursos do FAT. Esta análise visa detalhar, por meio de uma pesquisa qualitativa descritiva, as necessidades levantadas pelos programas do Governo e também dos programas de qualificação profissional aplicados pelo IEPE, além de uma entrevista em profundidade com três presidentes de entidades sindicais. A coleta de dados deu-se através de dados secundários provenientes de pesquisa documental e bibliográfica em fontes públicas. Com este levantamento buscou-se analisar se os programas atendem as reais necessidades dos indivíduos e mais, se além de qualificar tecnicamente estas pessoas, se estes programas fomentam noções de cidadania. Foi possível entender que existe divergência quanto ao real objetivo do sindicato-cidadão perante os entrevistados, tornando possivelmente vulneráveis as ações de capacitação aplicadas tanto pelo governo, quanto pelo sindicato, o que torna dificultoso alcançar o objetivo maior a que se propõe o sindicato-cidadão, de fomentar a inserção social através da qualificação.(AU)

ESTRUTURA E DINÂMICA DO FUNCIONAMENTO PSÍQUICO DE HOMENS ENVOLVIDOS EM VIOLÊNCIA DOMÉSTICA

A violência, de qualquer tipo e natureza, é um fenômeno que acontece desde os primórdios. A Organização Mundial de Saúde define violência como o uso intencional da força física ou do poder, real ou por ameaça, contra a própria pessoa, contra outra pessoa, contra um grupo ou uma comunidade, que pode resultar em morte, lesão, dano psicológico, problemas de desenvolvimento ou privação. A violência doméstica é definida pela APA como qualquer ação que causa dano físico a um ou mais membros de sua unidade familiar e pode ocorrer a partir de um conflito de gerações e de gênero, configurando-se por agressão física, abuso sexual, abuso psicológico, negligência, dentro da família, perpetradas por um agressor em condições de superioridade (física, etária, social, psíquica e/ou hierárquica). Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo investigar a Estrutura e dinâmica do Funcionamento Psíquico de Homens Envolvidos em Violência Doméstica. Utilizou-se o método clínico-qualitativo, com quatro homens em situação de violência doméstica. Como forma de coleta de dados foi empregada uma entrevista e o Teste das Relações Objetais (TRO) de Phillipson. Ao analisar os resultados, pode-se observar que o ego fragilizado teme a solidão, as situações de perda, e os ataques destrutivos do id e o superego permissivo não os contêm, e para suportar os ataques persecutórios dos objetos, e em função da persecutoriedade e da culpa persecutória o ego recorre a identificação projetiva maciça e a idealização para proteger-se da destrutividade, permanecendo na posição esquizoparanóide. Conclui-se que a análise da estrutura e da dinâmica psíquica e o tratamento psicológico (individual ou em grupo) de homens envolvidos em violência doméstica, em conjunto com outras medidas judiciais e sociais são ações necessárias, pois, pode ser uma forma de ajudá-los a enfrentar suas limitações, lidar com suas angústias, entender e controlar os impulsos, rever e compreender suas crenças e trabalhar sua autoestima. Partindo-se do pressuposto que a violência doméstica ocorre na relação entre homem-mulher, o tratamento e o entendimento dos aspectos psicológicos de homens envolvidos em violência doméstica são de extrema importância para minimizar este fenômeno, e deve ser aliado às ações, já existentes dirigidas às mulheres.