Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Glioprotective impact of cell-permeable peptides in preclinical models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons. It is mostly sporadic, but about 2% of cases are associated with mutations in the gene encoding the enzyme superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1). A major constraint to the comprehension of the pathogenesis of ALS has been long represented by the conviction that this disorder selectively affects motor neurons in a cell-autonomous manner. However, the failure to identify the events underlying the neurodegenerative process and the increased knowledge of the complex cellular interactions necessary for the correct functioning of the CNS has recently focused the attention on the contribution to neurodegeneration of glial cells, including astrocytes. Astrocytes can hurt motor neurons directly by secreting neurotoxic factors, but they can also play a deleterious role indirectly by losing functions that are supportive for neurons. Recently, we reported that a subpopulation of astrocytes degenerates in the spinal cord of hSOD1G93A transgenic mouse model of ALS. Mechanistic studies in cultured astrocytes revealed that such effect is mediated by the excitatory amino acid glutamate.On the bsis of these observations, we next used the established cell culture model as a tool to screen the glioprotective effect of innovative drugs, namely cell-permeable therapeutics. These consist of peptidic effector moieties coupled to the selective intracellular peptide transporter TAT protein. We initially validated the usefulness of these molecules demonstrating that a control fluorescent peptide enters astrocytes in culture and is retained within the cells up to 24-48 h, according to the timing of our cytotoxicity experiments. We then tested the impact of specific intracellular peptides with antiapoptotic properties on glutamate-treated hSOD1G93A- expressing astrocytes and we identified one molecule that protects the cells from death. Chronic treatment of ALS mice with this peptide had a positive impact on the outcome of the disease.

Evaluation of the impact of a therapeutic drug monitoring program in a Swiss University Hospital

Background and objective: Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) has been introduced early 1970 in our hospital (CHUV). It represents nowadays an important routine activity of the Division of Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology (PCL), and its impact and utility for clinicians required assessment. This study thus evaluated the impact of TDM recommendations in terms of dosage regimen adaptation. Design: A prospective observational study was conducted over 5 weeks. The primary objective was to evaluate the application of our TDM recommendations and to identify potential factors associated to variations in their implementation. The secondary objective was to identify pre-analytical problems linked to the collection and processing of blood samples. Setting: Four representative clinical units at CHUV. Main outcome measure: Clinical data, drug related data (intake, collection and processing) and all information regarding the implementation of clinical recommendations were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistics. Results: A total of 241 blood measurement requests were collected, among which 105 triggered a recommendation. 37% of the recommendations delivered were applied, 25 % partially applied and 34% not applied. In 4% it was not applicable. The factors determinant for implementation were the clinical unit and the mode of transmission of the recommendation (written vs oral). No clear difference between types of drugs could be detected. Pre-analytical problems were not uncommon, mostly related to completion of request forms and delays in blood sampling (equilibration or steady-state not reached). We have identified 6% of inappropriate and unusable drug level measurements that could cause a substantial cost for the hospital. Conclusion: This survey highlighted a better implementation of TDM recommendations in clinical units where this routine is well integrated and understood by the medical staff. Our results emphasize the importance of communication with the nurse or the physician in charge, either to transmit clinical recommendations or to establish consensual therapeutic targets in specific conditions. Development of strong partnerships between clinical pharmacists or pharmacologists and clinical units would be beneficial to improve the impact of this clinical activity.

Impact of Antibiotic Use on Carbapenem Resistance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa: Is There a Role for Antibiotic Diversity?

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between the rates of resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa to carbapenems and the levels and diversity of antibiotic consumption. Data were retrospectively collected from 20 acute care hospitals across 3 regions of Switzerland between 2006 and 2010. The main outcome of the present study was the rate of resistance to carbapenems among P. aeruginosa. Putative predictors included the total antibiotic consumption and carbapenem consumption in defined daily doses per 100 bed days, the proportion of very broad-spectrum antibiotics used, and the Peterson index. The present study confirmed a correlation between carbapenem use and carbapenem resistance rates at the hospital and regional levels. The impact of diversifying the range of antibiotics used against P. aeruginosa resistance was suggested by (i) a positive correlation in multivariate analysis between the above-mentioned resistance and the proportion of consumed antibiotics having a very broad spectrum of activity (coefficient = 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 2.96; P < 0.01) and (ii) a negative correlation between the resistance and diversity of antibiotic use as measured by the Peterson homogeneity index (coefficient = -0.52; P < 0.05). We conclude that promoting heterogeneity plus parsimony in the use of antibiotics appears to be a valuable strategy for minimizing the spread of carbapenem resistance in P. aeruginosa in hospitals.

Parental heart rate variability during pediatric consultation

OBJECTIVE: Research regarding communication between pediatricians and parents in pediatric consultation has mainly focused on parental satisfaction, on its influence on compliance and on communication techniques used by pediatricians. However, there is paucity in research regarding parental stress levels during pediatric consultation. Therefore, the aim of our study was to measure parental heart rate variability related as a measure of stress levels during pediatric consultation. METHODS: Video recordings with simultaneous monitoring and recording of parental heart rate were obtained from 38 pediatric consultations in the ambulatory or hospital setting of the department of pediatrics (HFR, Fribourg, Switzerland). Pulse variation was measured every 5 seconds and heart rate variability (increase or decrease were analyzed) in relation to various sections of the consultation. RESULTS: Heart rate significantly decreased at the end of the consultation compared to the beginning of the consultation (p= 0.0567). In addition, heart rate significantly decreased at the beginning of clinical examination (p= 0.0476) compared to psychosocial history taking. During the discussion of laboratory findings and diagnosis, heart rate was significantly elevated compared to the discussion of the prognosis (p=0.0505). CONCLUSION: We conclude that pediatric consultation has a significant impact on parental stress levels shown by parental heart variability. In general, it can be shown that stress levels significantly decrease at the end of the consultation compared to the beginning of the consultation. In addition, stress levels decrease at the beginning of clinical examination and increase during psychosocial history taking and discussion of laboratory findings and diagnosis. Therefore, our findings highlight the importance of a thorough consultation which include a comprehensive clinical examination with special care taken regarding psychosocial issues and information given regarding the diagnosis.

Personality, psychosocial and health-related predictors of quality of life in old age.

OBJECTIVES: Beyond its well-documented association with depressive symptoms across the lifespan, at an individual level, quality of life may be determined by multiple factors: psychosocial characteristics, current physical health and long-term personality traits. METHOD: Quality of life was assessed in two distinct community-based age groups (89 young adults aged 36.2 ± 6.3 and 92 older adults aged 70.4 ± 5.5 years), each group equally including adults with and without acute depressive symptoms. Regression models were applied to explore the association between quality of life assessed with the World Health Organization Quality of Life - Bref (WHOQOL-Bref) and depression severity, education, social support, physical illness, as well as personality dimensions as defined by the Five-Factor Model. RESULTS: In young age, higher quality of life was uniquely associated with lower severity of depressive symptoms. In contrast, in old age, higher quality of life was related to both lower levels of depressive mood and of physical illness. In this age group, a positive association was also found between quality of life and higher levels of Openness to experience and Agreeableness personality dimensions. CONCLUSION: Our data indicated that, in contrast to young cohorts, where acute depression is the main determinant of poor quality of life, physical illness and personality dimensions represent additional independent predictors of this variable in old age. This observation points to the need for concomitant consideration of physical and psychological determinants of quality of life in old age.

Role of the hypocretin system in cocaine- and alcohol-related behaviors : evidence from hypocretin-deficient mice

RésuméL'addiction aux drogues est une maladie multifactorieile affectant toutes les strates de notre société. Cependant, la vulnérabilité à développer une addiction dépend de facteurs environnementaux, génétiques et psychosociaux. L'addiction aux drogues est décrite comme étant une maladie chronique avec un taux élevé de rechutes. Elle se caractérise par un besoin irrépressible de consommer une drogue et une augmentation progressive de la consommation en dépit des conséquences néfastes. Les mécanismes cérébraux responsables des dépendances aux drogues ne sont que partiellement élucidés, malgré une accumulation croissante d'évidences démontrant des adaptations au niveau moléculaire et cellulaire au sein des systèmes dopaminergique et glutamatergique. L'identification de nouveaux facteurs neurobiologiques responsables de la vulnérabilité aux substances d'abus est cruciale pour le développement de nouveaux traitements thérapeutiques capables d'atténuer et de soulager les symptômes liés à la dépendance aux drogues.Au cours des dernières années, de nombreuses études ont démontré qu'un nouveau circuit cérébral, le système hypocrétinergique, était impliqué dans plusieurs fonctions physiologiques, tel que l'éveil, le métabolisme énergétique, la motivation, le stress et les comportements liés aux phénomènes de récompense. Le système hypocrétinergique est composé d'environ 3000-4000 neurones issus de l'hypothalamus latéral projetant dans tout ie cerveau. Des souris transgéniques pour le gène des hypocrétines ont été générées et leur phénotype correspond à celui des animaux sauvages, excepté le fait qu'elles soient atteintes d'attaques de sommeil similaires à celles observées chez les patients narcoleptiques. H semblerait que les hypocrétines soient requises pour l'acquisition et l'expression de la dépendance aux drogues. Cependant, le mécanisme précis reste encore à être élucidé. Dans ce rapport, nous rendons compte des comportements liés aux phénomènes de récompense liés à l'alcool et à la cocaine chez les souris knock-out (KO), hétérozygotes (HET) et sauvages (WT).Nous avons, dans un premier temps, évalué l'impact d'injections répétées de cocaïne (15 mg/kg, ip) sur la sensibilisation locomotrice et sur le conditionnement place préférence. Nous avons pu observer que les souris WT, HET et KO exprimaient une sensibilisation locomotrice induite par une administration chronique de cocaïne, cependant les souris déficientes en hypocrétines démontraient une sensibilisation retardée et atténuée. Π est intéressant de mentionner que les mâles HET exprimaient une sensibilisation comportementale intermédiaire. Après normalisation des données, toutes les souris exprimaient une amplitude de sensibilisation similaire, excepté les souris mâles KO qui affichaient, le premier jour de traitement, une sensibilisation locomotrice réduite et retardée, reflétant un phénotype hypoactif plutôt qu'une altération de la réponse aux traitements chroniques de cocaïne. Contre toute attente, toutes les souris femelles exprimaient un pattern similaire de sensibilisation locomotrice à la cocaïne. Nous avons ensuite évalué l'effet d'un conditionnement comportemental à un environnement associé à des injections répétées de cocaine (15 mg / kg ip). Toutes les souris, quelque soit leur sexe ou leur génotype, ont manifesté une préférence marquée pour l'environnement apparié à la cocaïne. Après deux semaines d'abstinence à la cocaïne, les mâles et les femelles déficientes en hypocrétines n'exprimaient plus aucune préférence pour le compartiment précédemment associé à la cocaïne. Alors que les souris WT et HET maintenaient leur préférence pour le compartiment associé à la cocaïne. Pour finir, à l'aide d'un nouveau paradigme appelé IntelliCage®, nous avons pu évaluer la consommation de liquide chez les femelles WT, HET et KO. Lorsqu'il n'y avait que de l'eau disponible, nous avons observé que les femelles KO avaient tendance à moins explorer les quatre coins de la cage. Lorsque les souris étaient exposées à quatre types de solutions différentes (eau, ImM quinine ou 0.2% saccharine, alcool 8% et alcool 16%), les souris KO avaient tendance à moins consommer l'eau sucrée et les solutions alcoolisées. Cependant, après normalisation des données, aucune différence significative n'a pu être observée entre les différents génotypes, suggérant que la consommation réduite d'eau sucrée ou d'alcool peut être incombée à l'hypoactivité des souris KO.Ces résultats confirment que le comportement observé chez les souris KO serait dû à des compensations développementales, puisque la sensibilisation locomotrice et le conditionnement comportemental à la cocaïne étaient similaires aux souris HET et WT. En ce qui concerne la consommation de liquide, les souris KO avaient tendance à consommer moins d'eau sucrée et de solutions alcoolisées. Le phénotype hypoactif des souris déficientes en hypocrétine est probablement responsable de leur tendance à moins explorer leur environnement. Il reste encore à déterminer si l'expression de ce phénotype est la conséquence d'un état de vigilance amoindri ou d'une motivation diminuée à la recherche de récompense. Nos résultats suggèrent que les souris déficientes en hypocrétine affichent une motivation certaine à la recherche de récompense lorsqu'elles sont exposées à des environnements où peu d'efforts sont à fournir afin d'obtenir une récompense.AbstractDrug addiction is a multifactorial disorder affecting human beings regardless their education level, their economic status, their origin or even their gender, but the vulnerability to develop addiction depends on environmental, genetic and psychosocial dispositions. Drug addiction is defined as a chronic relapsing disorder characterized by compulsive drug seeking, with loss of control over drug intake and persistent maladaptive decision making in spite of adverse consequences. The brain mechanisms responsible for drug abuse remain partially unknown despite accumulating evidence delineating molecular and cellular adaptations within the glutamatergic and the dopaminergic systems. However, these adaptations do not fully explain the complex brain disease of drug addiction. The identification of other neurobiological factors responsible for the vulnerability to substance abuse is crucial for the development of promising therapeutic treatments able to alleviate signs of drug dependence.For the past few years, growing evidence demonstrated that a recently discovered brain circuit, the hypocretinergic system, is implicated in many physiological functions, including arousal, energy metabolism, motivation, stress and reward-related behaviors. The hypocretin system is composed of a few thousands neurons arising from the lateral hypothalamus and projecting to the entire brain. Hypocretin- deficient mice have been generated, and unexpectedly, their phenotype resembles that of wild type mice excepting sleep attacks strikingly similar to those of human narcolepsy patients. Evidence suggesting that hypocretins are required for the acquisition and the expression of drug addiction has also been reported; however the precise mechanism by which hypocretins modulate drug seeking behaviors remains a matter of debate. Here, we report alcohol and cocaine reward-related behaviors in hypocretin-deficient mice (KO), as well as heterozygous (HET) and wild type (WT) littermates.We first evaluated the impact of repeated cocaine injections (15 mg/kg, ip) on locomotor sensitization and conditioned place preference. We observed that WT, HET and KO mice exhibited behavioral sensitization following repeated cocaine administrations, but hypocretin deficient males displayed a delayed and attenuated response to chronic cocaine administrations. Interestingly, HET males exhibited an intermediate pattern of behavioral sensitization. However, after standardization of the post-injection data versus the period of habituation prior to cocaine injections, all mice displayed similar amplitudes of behavioral sensitization, except a reduced response in KO males on the first day, suggesting that the delayed and reduced cocaine-induced locomotor sensitization may reflect a hypoactive phenotype and probably not an altered response to repeated cocaine administrations. Unexpectedly, all female mice exhibited similar patterns of cocaine-induced behavioral sensitization. We then assessed the behavioral conditioning for an environment repeatedly paired with cocaine injections (15 mg/kg ip). All mice, whatever their gender or genotype, exhibited a robust preference for the environment previously paired with cocaine administrations. Noteworthy, following two weeks of cocaine abstinence, hypocretin-deficient males and females no longer exhibited any preference for the compartment previously paired with cocaine rewards whereas both WT and HET mice continued manifesting a robust preference. We finally assessed drinking behaviors in WT, HET and KO female mice using a novel paradigm, the IntelliCages®. We report here that KO females tended to less explore the four cage comers where water was easily available. When exposed to four different kinds of liquid solutions (water, ImM quinine or saccharine 0.2%, alcohol 8% and alcohol 16%), KO mice tended to less consume the sweet and the alcoholic beverages. However, after data standardization, no significant differences were noticed between genotypes suggesting that the hypoactive phenotype is most likely accountable for the trend regarding the reduced sweet or alcohol intake in KO.Taken together, the present findings confirm that the behavior seen in Hcrt KO mice likely reflects developmental compensations since only a slightly altered cocaine-induced behavioral sensitization and a normal behavioral conditioning with cocaine were observed in these mice compared to HET and WT littermates. With regards to drinking behaviors, KO mice barely displayed any behavioral changes but a trend for reducing sweet and alcoholic beverages. Overall, the most striking observation is the constant hypoactive phenotype seen in the hypocretin-deficient mice that most likely is accountable for their reduced tendency to explore the environment. Whether this hypoactive phenotype is due to a reduced alertness or reduced motivation for reward seeking remains debatable, but our findings suggest that the hypocretin-deficient mice barely display any altered motivation for reward seeking in environments where low efforts are required to access to a reward.

New trends in world wine consumption and its impact on the Spanish wineries during the second half of the twentieth century

The main goal of this research is explain the impact of the new trends of wine consumption, and the way these enterprises adapted to the circumstances. The hypothesis is that the Spanish companies had to start a deep and traumatic restructuring process, with the aim of surviving adequately in the changeable wine national and international markets. Heavy technological investments were made, with serious finance problems, during the eighties and nineties. We will see this from two specific cases, the Cooperatives "San Isidro" and "Rosario", located in the Region of Murcia, in the Spanish southeast.

Impact of Antifibrotic Treatment on the Course of Schistosoma mansoni Infection in Murine Model

Administration of an antifibrotic agent as an adjunct to antihelmintic treatment with the objective of morbidity reduction was investigated in the murine schistosomiasis mansoni model. Antifibrotic, ß-aminopropionitrile treatment has a profound effect on the cellular matrix composition of the liver granuloma of Schistosoma mansoni infected mice when given alone, resulting in increase macrophage infiltration. These macrophages, in response to stimulation with soluble egg antigen or lipopolysaccharide produced elevated levels of nitric oxide but low levels of tumor necrosis factor alpha compared to untreated infected mice. This also correlated with reduced liver granuloma size. In spite of low numbers of eggs in the liver, mice receiving a combine treatment had a high level of resistance to a challenge infection compared with mice receiving only praziquantel. Those mice also exhibited a reduced lymphocyte proliferative response, similar to that of infected untreated mice. Antifibrotic treatment has an impact on the dynamic of the cellular nature of granulomas and impacts on the host immunity to infection

Acknowledgment and psychiatric symptoms in police officers in Switzerland

The way supervisors acknowledge specific contribution and efforts of their employees has an impact on occupational health and wellbeing. Acknowledgement is a protective factor when it is sufficiently provided. We carried out a study about occupational health in police officers with special emphasis on acknowledgment and reward. A questionnaire was sent to 1000 police officers and inspectors working for a cantonal administration in Switzerland. In total, 695 participants answered the questionnaire. We used the TST questionnaire (French version of the Langner's questionnaire on psychiatric symptoms) to identify cases characterized by potential mental health problems. Multiple choice items (5 modalities ranging from "not at all" to "tremendously") were used to measure acknowledgment. The score for psychiatric symptoms was high (TST score >or= 9) for 86 police officers and inspectors for whom health might be at risk. Compared with police officers having low or medium scores for psychiatric symptoms (TST score < 9), police officers with high TST scores were more likely to report the lack of support and attention from the supervisors (odds ratio [OR] 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0 to 5.1) and the lack of acknowledgment by the hierarchy (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.9 to 4.8). They were also more likely to mention that judicial authorities have a low consideration for police officers (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 4.3) and that the public in general have a low appreciation of police officers (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.9). Preserving mental health in occupations characterized by high emotional demand is challenging. Our results show that acknowledgment and mental health are associated. Further research should address a potential causal relation of acknowledgment on mental health in police officers and inspectors.

A genome-wide association study of early menopause and the combined impact of identified variants.

Early menopause (EM) affects up to 10% of the female population, reducing reproductive lifespan considerably. Currently, it constitutes the leading cause of infertility in the western world, affecting mainly those women who postpone their first pregnancy beyond the age of 30 years. The genetic aetiology of EM is largely unknown in the majority of cases. We have undertaken a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in 3493 EM cases and 13 598 controls from 10 independent studies. No novel genetic variants were discovered, but the 17 variants previously associated with normal age at natural menopause as a quantitative trait (QT) were also associated with EM and primary ovarian insufficiency (POI). Thus, EM has a genetic aetiology which overlaps variation in normal age at menopause and is at least partly explained by the additive effects of the same polygenic variants. The combined effect of the common variants captured by the single nucleotide polymorphism arrays was estimated to account for ∼30% of the variance in EM. The association between the combined 17 variants and the risk of EM was greater than the best validated non-genetic risk factor, smoking.