Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

The influence of oxygenated organic aerosols (OOA) and its volatile organic content on the oxidative potential of diesel particulate mater

Airborne particulate matter pollution is of concern for a number of reasons and has been widely recognised as an important risk factor to human health. A number of toxicological and epidemiological studies reported negative health effects on both respiratory and cardiovascular system. Despite the availability of a huge body of research, the underlying toxicological mechanisms by which particles induce adverse health effects are not yet entirely understood. The production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) has been shown to induce oxidative stress, which is proposed as a mechanism for many of the adverse health outcomes associated with exposure to particulate matter (PM). Therefore, it is crucial to introduce a technique that will allow rapid and routine screenings of the oxidative potential of PM.

Challenges for researchers investigating contraceptive use and pregnancy intentions of young women living in urban and rural Australia : face-to-face discussions to increase participation in a web-based survey

Background: It is imperative to understand how to engage young women in research about issues that are important to them. There is limited reliable data on how young women access contraception in Australia especially in rural areas where services may be less available. Objective: This paper identifies the challenges involved in engaging young Australian women aged 18-23 years to participate in a web-based survey on contraception and pregnancy and ensure their ongoing commitment to follow-up web-based surveys. Methods: A group of young women, aged 18-23 years and living in urban and rural New South Wales, Australia, were recruited to participate in face-to-face discussions using several methods of recruitment: direct contact (face-to-face, telephone or email)and snowball sampling by potential participants inviting their friends. All discussions were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Twenty young women participated (urban, n=10: mean age 21.6 years; rural, n=10: 20.0 years) and all used computers or smart phones to access the internet on a daily basis. All participants were concerned about the cost of internet access and utilized free access to social media on their mobile phones. Their willingness to participate in a web-based survey was dependent on incentives with a preference for small financial rewards. Most participants were concerned about their personal details and survey responses remaining confidential and secure. The most appropriate survey would take up to 15 minutes to complete, be a mix of short and long questions and eye-catching with bright colours. Questions on the sensitive topics of sexual activity, contraception and pregnancy were acceptable if they could respond with “I prefer not to answer”. Conclusions: There are demographic, participation and survey design challenges in engaging young women in a web-based survey. Based on our findings, future research efforts are needed to understand the full extent of the role social media and incentives play in the decision of young women to participate in web-based research.

Wide-field assessment of the human corneal subbasal nerve plexus in diabetic neuropathy using a novel mapping technique

To develop a rapid optimized technique of wide-field imaging of the human corneal subbasal nerve plexus. A dynamic fixation target was developed and, coupled with semiautomated tiling software, a rapid method of capturing and montaging multiple corneal confocal microscopy images was created. To illustrate the utility of this technique, wide-field maps of the subbasal nerve plexus were produced in 2 participants with diabetes, 1 with and 1 without neuropathy. The technique produced montages of the central 3 mm of the subbasal corneal nerve plexus. The maps seem to show a general reduction in the number of nerve fibers and branches in the diabetic participant with neuropathy compared with the individual without neuropathy. This novel technique will allow more routine and widespread use of subbasal nerve plexus mapping in clinical and research situations. The significant reduction in the time to image the corneal subbasal nerve plexus should expedite studies of larger groups of diabetic patients and those with other conditions affecting nerve fibers. The inferior whorl and the surrounding areas may show the greatest loss of nerve fibers in individuals with diabetic neuropathy, but this should be further investigated in a larger cohort.

Videogame control device impact on the play experience

New types of control devices for videogames have emerged and expanded the demographics of the game playing public, yet little is known about which populations of gamers prefer which style of interaction and why. This paper presents data from a study that seeks to clarify the influence the control interface has on the play experience. Three commercial control devices were categorised using an existing typology, according to how the interface maps physical control inputs with the virtual gameplay actions. The devices were then used in a within-groups experimental design aimed at measuring differences in play experience across 64 participants. Descriptive analysis is undertaken on the performance, play experience and preference results for each device. Potential explanations for these results are discussed, as well as the direction of future work.

Building envelope : performance optimisation processes for a daylight responsive architecture

Traditional shading design principles guide the vertical and horizontal orientation of fins, louvres and awnings being applied to orthogonal planar façades. Due to doubly curved envelopes characterising many contemporary designs, these rules of thumb are now not always applicable. Operable blinds attempt to regulate the fluctuating luminance of daylight and aid in shading direct sunlight. Mostly they remain closed, as workers are commonly too preoccupied to continually adjust them so a reliance on electrically powered lights remains a preference. To remedy these problems, the idea of what it is to sustainable enclose space is reconsidered through the geometric and kinetic optimisation of a parametric skin, with sunlight responsive modules that regulate interior light levels. This research concludes with an optimised design and also defines some unique metrics to gauge the design’s performance in terms of, the amount of exterior unobstructed view, its ability to shade direct sunlight and, its daylight glare probability.

Discretionary use of open briefings in the Australian continuous reporting environment

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) listing rule 3.1 requires listed companies to immediately disclose price sensitive information to the market via the ASX’s Company Announcements Platform (CAP) prior to release through other disclosure channels. Since 1999, to improve the communication process, the ASX has permitted third-party mediation in the disclosure process that leads to the release of an Open Briefing (OB) through CAP. An OB is an interview between senior executives of the firm and an Open Briefing analyst employed by Orient Capital Pty Ltd (broaching topics such as current profit and outlook). Motivated by an absence of research on factors that influence firms to use OBs as a discretionary disclosure channel, this study examines (1) Why do firms choose to release information to the market via OBs?, (2) What are the firm characteristics that explain the discretionary use of OBs as a disclosure channel?, and (3) What are the disclosure attributes that influence firms’ decisions to regularly use OBs as a disclosure channel? Based on agency and information economics theories, a theoretical framework is developed to address research questions. This theoretical framework comprises disclosure environments such as firm characteristics and external factors, disclosure attributes and disclosure consequences. In order to address the first research question, the study investigates (i) the purpose of using OBs, (2) whether firms use OBs to provide information relating to previous public announcements, and (3) whether firms use OBs to provide routine or non-routine disclosures. In relation to the second and third research questions, hypotheses are developed to test factors expected to explain the discretionary use of OBs and firms’ decisions to regularly use OBs, and to explore the factors influencing the nature of OB disclosure. Content analysis and logistic regression models are used to investigate the research questions and test the hypotheses. Data are drawn from a hand-collected population of 1863 OB announcements issued by 239 listed firms between 2000 and 2010. The results show that types of information disclosed via an OB announcement are principally on matters relating to corporate strategies and performance and outlook. Most OB announcements are linked with a previous related announcement, with the lag between announcements significantly longer for loss-making firms than profitmaking firms. The main results show that firms which tend to be larger, have an analyst following, and have higher growth opportunities, are more likely to release OBs. Further, older firms and firms that release OB announcements containing good news, historical information and less complex information tend to be regular OB users. Lastly, firms more likely to disclose strategic information via OBs tend to operate in industries facing greater uncertainty, do not have analysts following, and have higher growth opportunities are less likely to disclose good news, historical information and complex information via OBs. This study is expected to contribute to disclosure literature in terms of disclosure attributes and firm characteristics that influence behaviour in this unique (OB) disclosure channel. With regard to practical significance, regulators can gain an understanding of how OBs are disclosed which can assist them in monitoring the use of OBs and improving the effectiveness of communications with stakeholders. In addition, investors can have a better comprehension of information contained in OB announcements, which may in turn better facilitate their investment decisions.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

Using the collaborative evidence based practice model : a systematic review and uptake of chlorhexidine-impregnated sponge dressings on central venous access devices in a tertiary cancer centre

Background: Greater research utilisation in cancer nursing practice is needed, in order to provide well-informed and effective nursing care to people affected by cancer. This paper aims to report on the implementation of evidence-based practice in a tertiary cancer centre. Methods: Using a case report design, this paper reports on the use of the Collaborative Model for Evidence Based Practice (CMEBP) in an Australian tertiary cancer centre. The clinical case is the uptake of routine application of chlorhexidine-impregnated sponge dressings for preventing centrally inserted catheter-related bloodstream infections. In this case report, a number of processes that resulted in a service-wide practice change are described. Results: This model was considered a feasible method for successful research utilisation. In this case report, chlorhexidine-impregnated sponge dressings were proposed and implemented in the tertiary cancer centre with an aim of reducing the incidence of centrally inserted catheter-related bloodstream infections and potentially improving patient health outcomes. Conclusion: The CMEBP is feasible and effective for implementing clinical evidence into cancer nursing practice. Cancer nurses and health administrators need to ensure a supportive infrastructure and environment for clinical inquiry and research utilisation exists, in order to enable successful implementation of evidence-based practice in their cancer centres.

Going public : do risk and choice explain differences in caesarean birth rates between public and private places of birth in Australia?

Background: Women who birth in private facilities in Australia are more likely to have a caesarean birth than women who birth in public facilities and these differences remain after accounting for sector differences in the demographic and health risk profiles of women. However, the extent to which women’s preferences and/or freedom to choose their mode of birth further account for differences in the likelihood of caesarean birth between the sectors remains untested. Method: Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a self-report survey approximately three months after birth. Seven hundred and fifty-seven women provided cross-sectional retrospective data on where they birthed (public or private facility), mode of birth (vaginal or caesarean) and risk factors, along with their preferences and freedom to choose their mode of birth. A hierarchical logistic regression was conducted to determine the extent to which maternal risk and freedom to choose one’s mode of birth explain sector differences in the likelihood of having a caesarean birth. Findings: While there was no sector difference in women’s preference for mode of birth, women who birthed in private facilities had higher odds of feeling able to choose either a vaginal or caesarean birth, and feeling able to choose only a caesarean birth. Women had higher odds of having caesarean birth if they birthed in private facilities, even after accounting for significant risk factors such as age, body mass index, previous caesarean and use of assisted reproductive technology. However, there was no association between place of birth and odds of having a caesarean birth after also accounting for freedom to choose one’s mode of birth. Conclusions: These findings call into question suggestions that the higher caesarean birth rate in the private sector in Australia is attributable to increased levels of obstetric risk among women birthing in the private sector or maternal preferences alone. Instead, the determinants of sector differences in the likelihood of caesarean births are complex and are linked to differences in the perceived choices for mode of birth between women birthing in the private and public systems.

A prospective study of pregnancy weight gain in Australian women

Background: While weight gain during pregnancy is regarded as important, there has not been a prospective study of measured weight gain in pregnancy in Australia. This study aimed to prospectively evaluate pregnancy-related weight gain against the Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommendations in women receiving antenatal care in a setting where ongoing weight monitoring is not part of routine clinical practice, to describe women's knowledge of weight gain recommendations and to describe the health professional advice received relating to gestational weight gain (GWG). Methods: Pregnant women were recruited ≤20 weeks of gestation (n = 664) from a tertiary obstetric hospital between August 2010 to July 2011 for this prospective observational study. Outcome measures were weight gain from pre-pregnancy to 36 weeks of gestation, weight gain knowledge and health professional advice received. Results: Thirty-six percent of women gained weight according to guidelines. Twenty-six percent gained inadequate weight, and 38% gained excess weight. Fifty-six percent of overweight women gained weight in excess of the IOM guidelines compared with 30% of those who started with a healthy weight (P < 0.001). At 16 weeks, 47% of participants were unsure of the weight gain recommendations for them. Sixty-two percent of women reported that the health professionals caring for them during this pregnancy ‘never’ or ‘rarely’ offered advice about how much weight to gain. Conclusions: The prevalence of inappropriate gestational weight gain in this study was high. The majority of women do not know their recommended weight gain. The advice women received from health professionals relating to healthy weight gain in pregnancy could be improved.

Use of the piggyBac transposon to create HIV-1 gag transgenic insect cell lines for continuous VLP production

Background Insect baculovirus-produced Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) Gag virus-like-particles (VLPs) stimulate good humoral and cell-mediated immune responses in animals and are thought to be suitable as a vaccine candidate. Drawbacks to this production system include contamination of VLP preparations with baculovirus and the necessity for routine maintenance of infectious baculovirus stock. We used piggyBac transposition as a novel method to create transgenic insect cell lines for continuous VLP production as an alternative to the baculovirus system. Results Transgenic cell lines maintained stable gag transgene integration and expression up to 100 cell passages, and although the level of VLPs produced was low compared to baculovirus-produced VLPs, they appeared similar in size and morphology to baculovirus-expressed VLPs. In a murine immunogenicity study, whereas baculovirus-produced VLPs elicited good CD4 immune responses in mice when used to boost a prime with a DNA vaccine, no boost response was elicited by transgenically produced VLPs. Conclusion Transgenic insect cells are stable and can produce HIV Pr55 Gag VLPs for over 100 passages: this novel result may simplify strategies aimed at making protein subunit vaccines for HIV. Immunogenicity of the Gag VLPs in mice was less than that of baculovirus-produced VLPs, which may be due to lack of baculovirus glycoprotein incorporation in the transgenic cell VLPs. Improved yield and immunogenicity of transgenic cell-produced VLPs may be achieved with the addition of further genetic elements into the piggyBac integron.

Randomised controlled trial of an automated, interactive telephone intervention (TLC Diabetes) to improve type 2 diabetes management : Baseline findings and six-month outcomes

Background: Effective self-management of diabetes is essential for the reduction of diabetes-related complications, as global rates of diabetes escalate. Methods: Randomised controlled trial. Adults with type 2 diabetes (n = 120), with HbA1c greater than or equal to 7.5 %, were randomly allocated (4 × 4 block randomised block design) to receive an automated, interactive telephone-delivered management intervention or usual routine care. Baseline sociodemographic, behavioural and medical history data were collected by self-administered questionnaires and biological data were obtained during hospital appointments. Health-related quality of life (HRQL) was measured using the SF-36. Results: The mean age of participants was 57.4 (SD 8.3), 63 % of whom were male. There were no differences in demographic, socioeconomic and behavioural variables between the study arms at baseline. Over the six-month period from baseline, participants receiving the Australian TLC (Telephone-Linked Care) Diabetes program showed a 0.8 % decrease in geometric mean HbA1c from 8.7 % to 7.9 %, compared with a 0.2 % HbA1c reduction (8.9 % to 8.7 %) in the usual care arm (p = 0.002). There was also a significant improvement in mental HRQL, with a mean increase of 1.9 in the intervention arm, while the usual care arm decreased by 0.8 (p = 0.007). No significant improvements in physical HRQL were observed. Conclusions: These analyses indicate the efficacy of the Australian TLC Diabetes program with clinically significant post-intervention improvements in both glycaemic control and mental HRQL. These observed improvements, if supported and maintained by an ongoing program such as this, could significantly reduce diabetes-related complications in the longer term. Given the accessibility and feasibility of this kind of program, it has strong potential for providing effective, ongoing support to many individuals with diabetes in the future.

A longitudinal study of health-related quality of life, fatigue and physical activity in chronic kidney disease patients

This study assessed the health-related quality of life (HRQoL), fatigue and physical activity levels of 28 persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on initial administration of an erythropoietin stimulating agent, and at 3 months, 6 months and 12 months. The sample comprised of 15 females and 13 males whose ages ranged from 31 to 84 years. Physical activity was measured using the Human Activity Profile (HAP): Self-care, Personal/Household work, Entertainment/Social, Independent exercise. Quality of life was measured using the SF-36 which gives scores on physical health (physical functioning, role-physical, bodily pain and general health) and mental health (vitality, social functioning, role-emotional and emotional well-being). Fatigue was measured by the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS). Across all time points the renal sample engaged in considerably less HAP personal/household work activities and entertainment/social activities compared to healthy adults. The normative sample engaged in three times more independent/exercise activities compared to renal patients. One-way Repeated measures ANOVAs indicated a significant change over time for SF-36 scales of role physical, vitality, emotional well-being and overall mental health. There was a significant difference in fatigue levels over time [F(3,11) = 3.78, p<.05]. Fatigue was highest at baseline and lowest at 6 months. The more breathlessness the CKD patient reported, the fewer activities undertaken and the greater the reported level of fatigue. There were no significant age differences over time for fatigue or physical activity. Age differences were only found for SF-36 mental health at 3 months (t=-2.41, df=14, p<.05). Those younger than 65 years had lower emotional well-being compared to those aged over 65. Males had poorer physical health compared to females at 12 months. There were no significant gender differences on mental health at any time point. In the management of chronic kidney disease, early detection of a person’s inability to engage in routine activities due to fatigue is necessary. Early detection would enable timely interventions to optimise HRQoL and independent exercise.

Bone tissue engineering : from bench to bedside - Review article

The drive to develop bone grafts for the filling of major gaps in the skeletal structure has led to a major research thrust towards developing biomaterials for bone engineering. Unfortunately, from a clinical perspective, the promise of bone tissue engineering which was so vibrant a decade ago has so far failed to deliver the anticipated results of becoming a routine therapeutic application in reconstructive surgery. Here we describe the analysis of long-term bone regeneration studies in preclinical animal models, exploiting methods of micro- and nano analysis of biodegradable composite scaffolds.