965 resultados para predictions


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A comprehensive analysis of thermal and photochemical reactions of thiocarbonyls has been undertaken within the PMO framework employing MINDO/3 orbital energies and wavefunctions. The model is generally successful in rationalizing the observed regiochemistry of such reactions. In particular, the indicated regiochemistry for [4 + 2] thermal cycloadditions of saturated thiones to 2-substituted dienes, for the dimerization of α,β-unsaturated thiones, and for the photochemical cycloadditions of thioketones and thioenones are all in agreement with experimental observations. Interesting predictions are also made concerning cycloadditions of saturated, conjugated, and arylalkyl thiones which have not yet been studied experimentally. The analysis reveals the decisive role played by secondary orbital interactions in determining the observed product selectivity in the photochemical reactions between thioenone and olefins.

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The magnetically induced currents in organic monoring and multiring molecules, in Möbius shaped molecules and in inorganic all-metal molecules have been investigated by means of the Gauge-including magnetically induced currents (GIMIC) method. With the GIMIC method, the ring-current strengths and the ring-current density distributions can be calculated. For open-shell molecules, also the spin current can be obtained. The ring-current pathways and ring-current strengths can be used to understand the magnetic resonance properties of the molecules, to indirectly identify the effect of non-bonded interactions on NMR chemical shifts, to design new molecules with tailored properties and to discuss molecular aromaticity. In the thesis, the magnetic criterion for aromaticity has been adopted. According to this, a molecule which has a net diatropic ring current might be aromatic. Similarly, a molecule which has a net paratropic current might be antiaromatic. If the net current is zero, the molecule is nonaromatic. The electronic structure of the investigated molecules has been resolved by quantum chemical methods. The magnetically induced currents have been calculated with the GIMIC method at the density-functional theory (DFT) level, as well as at the self-consistent field Hartree-Fock (SCF-HF), at the Møller-Plesset perturbation theory of the second order (MP2) and at the coupled-cluster singles and doubles (CCSD) levels of theory. For closed-shell molecules, accurate ring-current strengths can be obtained with a reasonable computational cost at the DFT level and with rather small basis sets. For open-shell molecules, it is shown that correlated methods such as MP2 and CCSD might be needed to obtain reliable charge and spin currents. The basis set convergence has to be checked for open-shell molecules by performing calculations with large enough basis sets. The results discussed in the thesis have been published in eight papers. In addition, some previously unpublished results on the ring currents in the endohedral fullerene Sc3C2@C80 and in coronene are presented. It is shown that dynamical effects should be taken into account when modelling magnetic resonance parameters of endohedral metallofullerenes such as Sc3C2@C80. The ring-current strengths in a series of nano-sized hydrocarbon rings are related to static polarizabilities and to H-1 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) shieldings. In a case study on the possible aromaticity of a Möbius-shaped [16]annulene we found that, according to the magnetic criterion, the molecule is nonaromatic. The applicability of the GIMIC method to assign the aromatic character of molecules was confirmed in a study on the ring currents in simple monocylic aromatic, homoaromatic, antiaromatic, and nonaromatic hydrocarbons. Case studies on nanorings, hexaphyrins and [n]cycloparaphenylenes show that explicit calculations are needed to unravel the ring-current delocalization pathways in complex multiring molecules. The open-shell implementation of GIMIC was applied in studies on the charge currents and the spin currents in single-ring and bi-ring molecules with open shells. The aromaticity predictions that are made based on the GIMIC results are compared to other aromaticity criteria such as H-1 NMR shieldings and shifts, electric polarizabilities, bond-length alternation, as well as to predictions provided by the traditional Hückel (4n+2) rule and its more recent extensions that account for Möbius twisted molecules and for molecules with open shells.

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In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

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The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

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Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

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We present a general formalism for deriving bounds on the shape parameters of the weak and electromagnetic form factors using as input correlators calculated from perturbative QCD, and exploiting analyticity and unitarily. The values resulting from the symmetries of QCD at low energies or from lattice calculations at special points inside the analyticity domain can be included in an exact way. We write down the general solution of the corresponding Meiman problem for an arbitrary number of interior constraints and the integral equations that allow one to include the phase of the form factor along a part of the unitarity cut. A formalism that includes the phase and some information on the modulus along a part of the cut is also given. For illustration we present constraints on the slope and curvature of the K-l3 scalar form factor and discuss our findings in some detail. The techniques are useful for checking the consistency of various inputs and for controlling the parameterizations of the form factors entering precision predictions in flavor physics.

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Purpose - This paper aims to validate a comprehensive aeroelastic analysis for a helicopter rotor with the higher harmonic control aeroacoustic rotor test (HART-II) wind tunnel test data. Design/methodology/approach - Aeroelastic analysis of helicopter rotor with elastic blades based on finite element method in space and time and capable of considering higher harmonic control inputs is carried out. Moderate deflection and coriolis nonlinearities are included in the analysis. The rotor aerodynamics are represented using free wake and unsteady aerodynamic models. Findings - Good correlation between analysis and HART-II wind tunnel test data is obtained for blade natural frequencies across a range of rotating speeds. The basic physics of the blade mode shapes are also well captured. In particular, the fundamental flap, lag and torsion modes compare very well. The blade response compares well with HART-II result and other high-fidelity aeroelastic code predictions for flap and torsion mode. For the lead-lag response, the present analysis prediction is somewhat better than other aeroelastic analyses. Research limitations/implications - Predicted blade response trend with higher harmonic pitch control agreed well with the wind tunnel test data, but usually contained a constant offset in the mean values of lead-lag and elastic torsion response. Improvements in the modeling of the aerodynamic environment around the rotor can help reduce this gap between the experimental and numerical results. Practical implications - Correlation of predicted aeroelastic response with wind tunnel test data is a vital step towards validating any helicopter aeroelastic analysis. Such efforts lend confidence in using the numerical analysis to understand the actual physical behavior of the helicopter system. Also, validated numerical analyses can take the place of time-consuming and expensive wind tunnel tests during the initial stage of the design process. Originality/value - While the basic physics appears to be well captured by the aeroelastic analysis, there is need for improvement in the aerodynamic modeling which appears to be the source of the gap between numerical predictions and HART-II wind tunnel experiments.

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A variety of applications exist for reverse saturable absorbers (RSAs) in the area of optical pulse processing and computing. An RSA can be used as power limiter/pulse smoother and energy limiter/pulse shortner of laser pulses. A combination of RSA and saturable absorber (SA) can be used for mode locking and pulse shaping between high power laser amplifiers in oscillator amplifier chain. Also, an RSA can be used for the construction of a molecular spatial light modulator (SLM) which acts as an input/output device in optical computers. A detailed review of the theoretical studies of these processes is presented. Current efforts to find RSAs at desired wavelength for testing these theoretical predictions are also discussed.

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This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

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The crystal state conformations of three peptides containing the a,a-dialkylated residues, a,adi n-propylglycine (Dpg) and a,@-di-n-butylglycine (Dbg), have been established by x-ray diffraction. Boc-Ala-Dpg-Ala-OMe ( I ) and Boc-Ala-Dbg-Ala-OMe (III) adopt distorted type II @-turn conformations with Ala ( I ) and Dpg/Dbg (2) as the corner residues. In both peptides the conformational angles at the Dxg residue (I: 4 = 66.23 J/ = 19.3'; III: 4 = 66S0, J. = 21 .la)deviate appreciablyfrom ideal values for the i + 2 residue in a type II @-turn. In both peptides the observed(N. 0) distances between the Boc CO andAla(3) NHgroups are far too long (I:3.44 k; III: 3.63 k) for an intramolecular 4 + 1 hydrogen bond. Boc-Ala-Dpg-Ala-NHMe (II)crystallizes with two independent molecules in the asymmetric unit. Both molecules IIA and IIB adopt consecutive @-turn (type III-III in IIA and type III-I in IIB) or incipient 3,,,-helical structures, stabilized by two intramolecular 4 --t I hydrogen bonds. In all four molecules the bond angle N-C"-C' ( T ) at the Dxg residues are 2 1109 The observation of conformational angles in the helical region of 4,J/ space at these residues is consistent with theoretical predictions

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A molecular theory of dielectric relaxation in a dense binary dipolar liquid is presented. The theory takes into account the effects of intra- and interspecies intermolecular interactions. It is shown that the relaxation is, in general, nonexponential. In certain limits, we recover the biexponential form traditionally used to analyze the experimental data of dielectric relaxation in a binary mixture. However, the relaxation times are widely different from the prediction of the noninteracting rotational diffusion model of Debye for a binary system. Detailed numerical evaluation of the frequency-dependent dielectric function epsilon-(omega) is carried out by using the known analytic solution of the mean spherical approximation (MSA) model for the two-particle direct correlation function for a polar mixture. A microscopic expression for both wave vector (k) and frequency (omega) dependent dielectric function, epsilon-(k,omega), of a binary mixture is also presented. The theoretical predictions on epsilon-(omega) (= epsilon-(k = 0, omega)) have been compared with the available experimental results. In particular, the present theory offers a molecular explanation of the phenomenon of fusing of the two relaxation channels of the neat liquids, observed by Schallamach many years ago.

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Tasaikäisen metsän alle muodostuvilla alikasvoksilla on merkitystä puunkorjuun, metsänuudistamisen, näkemä-ja maisema-analyysien sekä biodiversiteetin ja hiilitaseen arvioinnin kannalta. Ilma-aluksista tehtävä laserkeilaus on osoittautunut tehokkaaksi kaukokartoitusmenetelmäksi varttuneiden puustojen mittauksessa. Laserkeilauksen käyttöönotto operatiivisessa metsäsuunnittelussa mahdollistaa aiempaa tarkemman tiedon tuottamisen alikasvoksista, mikäli alikasvoksen ominaisuuksia voidaan tulkita laseraineistoista. Tässä työssä käytettiin tarkasti mitattuja maastokoealoja ja kaikulaserkeilausaineistoja (discrete return LiDAR) usealta vuodelta (1–2 km lentokorkeus, 0,9–9,7 pulssia m-2). Laserkeilausaineistot oli hankittu Optech ALTM3100 ja Leica ALS50-II sensoreilla. Koealat edustavat suomalaisia tasaikäisiä männiköitä eri kehitysvaiheissa. Tutkimuskysymykset olivat: 1) Minkälainen on alikasvoksesta saatu lasersignaali yksittäisen pulssin tasolla ja mitkä tekijät signaaliin vaikuttavat? 2) Mikä on käytännön sovelluksissa hyödynnettävien aluepohjaisten laserpiirteiden selitysvoima alikasvospuuston ominaisuuksien ennustamisessa? Erityisesti haluttiin selvittää, miten laserpulssin energiahäviöt ylempiin latvuskerroksiin vaikuttavat saatuun signaaliin, ja voidaanko laserkaikujen intensiteetille tehdä energiahäviöiden korjaus. Puulajien väliset erot laserkaiun intensiteetissä olivat pieniä ja vaihtelivat keilauksesta toiseen. Intensiteetin käyttömahdollisuudet alikasvoksen puulajin tulkinnassa ovat siten hyvin rajoittuneet. Energiahäviöt ylempiin latvuskerroksiin aiheuttivat alikasvoksesta saatuun lasersignaaliin kohinaa. Energiahäviöiden korjaus tehtiin alikasvoksesta saaduille laserpulssin 2. ja 3. kaiuille. Korjauksen avulla pystyttiin pienentämään kohteen sisäistä intensiteetin hajontaa ja parantamaan kohteiden luokittelutarkkuutta alikasvoskerroksessa. Käytettäessä 2. kaikuja oikeinluokitusprosentti luokituksessa maan ja yleisimmän puulajin välillä oli ennen korjausta 49,2–54,9 % ja korjauksen jälkeen 57,3–62,0 %. Vastaavat kappa-arvot olivat 0,03–0,13 ja 0,10–0,22. Tärkein energiahäviöitä selittävä tekijä oli pulssista saatujen aikaisempien kaikujen intensiteetti, mutta hieman merkitystä oli myös pulssin leikkausgeometrialla ylemmän latvuskerroksen puiden kanssa. Myös 3. kaiuilla luokitustarkkuus parani. Puulajien välillä havaittiin eroja siinä, kuinka herkästi ne tuottavat kaiun laserpulssin osuessa puuhun. Kuusi tuotti kaiun suuremmalla todennäköisyydellä kuin lehtipuut. Erityisen selvä tämä ero oli pulsseilla, joissa oli energiahäviöitä. Laserkaikujen korkeusjakaumapiirteet voivat siten olla riippuvaisia puulajista. Sensorien välillä havaittiin selviä eroja intensiteettijakaumissa, mikä vaikeuttaa eri sensoreilla hankittujen aineistojen yhdistämistä. Myös kaiun todennäköisyydet erosivat jonkin verran sensorien välillä, mikä aiheutti pieniä eroavaisuuksia kaikujen korkeusjakaumiin. Aluepohjaisista laserpiirteistä löydettiin alikasvoksen runkolukua ja keskipituutta hyvin selittäviä piirteitä, kun rajoitettiin tarkastelu yli 1 m pituisiin puihin. Piirteiden selitysvoima oli parempi runkoluvulle kuin keskipituudelle. Selitysvoima ei merkittävästi alentunut pulssitiheyden pienentyessä, mikä on hyvä asia käytännön sovelluksia ajatellen. Lehtipuun osuutta ei pystytty selittämään. Tulosten perusteella kaikulaserkeilausta voi olla mahdollista hyödyntää esimerkiksi ennakkoraivaustarpeen arvioinnissa. Sen sijaan alikasvoksen tarkempi luokittelu (esim. puulajitulkinta) voi olla vaikeaa. Kaikkein pienimpiä alikasvospuita ei pystytä havaitsemaan. Lisää tutkimuksia tarvitaan tulosten yleistämiseksi erilaisiin metsiköihin.

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The Cam-clay models, or any other plasticity-based models, do not make distinction between the mode of stress transfer in coarse- and fine-grained soils. An examination of behavior at micro level in fine-grained soils, from the consideration of load transfer through physico-chemical interactions, suggests that the plastic compressions result from the grouping of particles into larger clusters and that elastic compressions result from the decrease in the spacing between particles. During shearing, these clusters gradually get dismembered, releasing the locked-in energy. The effect of such dismembering of clusters can be easily incorporated into the original Cam-clay model, and better predictions can be obtained with the associated flow rule, itself, for both normally and over consolidated states. The method essentially defines the hardening of yield surfaces with internal changes in the spacing between particles, instead of changes in externally observed plastic strains. The approach describes the behavior of over consolidated soils as yielding along successfively hardening Roscoe surfaces with gradually varying plastic properties.

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Existing models for dmax predict that, in the limit of μd → ∞, dmax increases with 3/4 power of μd. Further, at low values of interfacial tension, dmax becomes independent of σ even at moderate values of μd. However, experiments contradict both the predictions show that dmax dependence on μd is much weaker, and that, even at very low values of σ,dmax does not become independent of it. A model is proposed to explain these results. The model assumes that a drop circulates in a stirred vessel along with the bulk fluid and repeatedly passes through a deformation zone followed by a relaxation zone. In the deformation zone, the turbulent inertial stress tends to deform the drop, while the viscous stress generated in the drop and the interfacial stress resist deformation. The relaxation zone is characterized by absence of turbulent stress and hence the drop tends to relax back to undeformed state. It is shown that a circulating drop, starting with some initial deformation, either reaches a steady state or breaks in one or several cycles. dmax is defined as the maximum size of a drop which, starting with an undeformed initial state for the first cycle, passes through deformation zone infinite number of times without breaking. The model predictions reduce to that of Lagisetty. (1986) for moderate values of μd and σ. The model successfully predicts the reduced dependence of dmax on μd at high values of μd as well as the dependence of dmax on σ at low values of σ. The data available in literature on dmax could be predicted to a greater accuracy by the model in comparison with existing models and correlations.

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Existing models for dmax predict that, in the limit of μd → ∞, dmax increases with 3/4 power of μd. Further, at low values of interfacial tension, dmax becomes independent of σ even at moderate values of μd. However, experiments contradict both the predictions show that dmax dependence on μd is much weaker, and that, even at very low values of σ,dmax does not become independent of it. A model is proposed to explain these results. The model assumes that a drop circulates in a stirred vessel along with the bulk fluid and repeatedly passes through a deformation zone followed by a relaxation zone. In the deformation zone, the turbulent inertial stress tends to deform the drop, while the viscous stress generated in the drop and the interfacial stress resist deformation. The relaxation zone is characterized by absence of turbulent stress and hence the drop tends to relax back to undeformed state. It is shown that a circulating drop, starting with some initial deformation, either reaches a steady state or breaks in one or several cycles. dmax is defined as the maximum size of a drop which, starting with an undeformed initial state for the first cycle, passes through deformation zone infinite number of times without breaking. The model predictions reduce to that of Lagisetty. (1986) for moderate values of μd and σ. The model successfully predicts the reduced dependence of dmax on μd at high values of μd as well as the dependence of dmax on σ at low values of σ. The data available in literature on dmax could be predicted to a greater accuracy by the model in comparison with existing models and correlations.