Transit route occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time for quality of service assessment

This paper investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

Transit route occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time for quality of service assessment

This presentation investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

A strain-based failure criterion for pillar stability analysis

Strain-based failure criteria have several advantages over stress-based failure criteria: they can account for elastic and inelastic strains, they utilise direct, observables effects instead of inferred effects (strain gauges vs. stress estimates), and model complete stress-strain curves including pre-peak, non-linear elasticity and post-peak strain weakening. In this study, a strain-based failure criterion derived from thermodynamic first principles utilising the concepts of continuum damage mechanics is presented. Furthermore, implementation of this failure criterion into a finite-element simulation is demonstrated and applied to the stability of underground mining coal pillars. In numerical studies, pillar strength is usually expressed in terms of critical stresses or stress-based failure criteria where scaling with pillar width and height is common. Previous publications have employed the finite-element method for pillar stability analysis using stress-based failure criterion such as Mohr-Coulomb and Hoek-Brown or stress-based scalar damage models. A novel constitutive material model, which takes into consideration anisotropy as well as elastic strain and damage as state variables has been developed and is presented in this paper. The damage threshold and its evolution are strain-controlled, and coupling of the state variables is achieved through the damage-induced degradation of the elasticity tensor. This material model is implemented into the finite-element software ABAQUS and can be applied to 3D problems. Initial results show that this new material model is capable of describing the non-linear behaviour of geomaterials commonly observed before peak strength is reached as well as post-peak strain softening. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the model can account for directional dependency of failure behaviour (i.e. anisotropy) and has the potential to be expanded to environmental controls like temperature or moisture.

Tobacco use in South Africans during 1998: The first demographic and health survey

Objective To determine smoking patterns in South Africa, and to identify groups requiring culturally appropriate smoking cessation programmes. Methods A random sample of 13 826 people (415 years), was interviewed to identify tobacco use patterns and respiratory symptoms. Peak expiratory flow rates were measured. Multinomial regression analyses identified sociodemographic factors related to tobacco use, and the latter’s association with respiratory conditions. Results In 1998, 24.6% adults (44.2% of males and 11.0% of females) smoked regularly. Coloured women had a higher rate (39%) than African women (5.4%). About 24% of the regular smokers had attempted to quit, with only 9.9% succeeding. African women (13.2%) used smokeless tobacco more frequently than others. Of the nonsmokers 28% and 19% were exposed to environmental tobacco smoke in their homes and workplaces, respectively. The regression analysis showed that the demographic characteristics of light smokers (1–14 tobacco equivalents per day) and heavy smokers (>=15 tobacco equivalents per day) differed. Light smoking occurred significantly more frequently in the poorest, least educated and urban people. The relative risk for light smoking was 18 in Coloured women compared with African women. Heavy smoking occurred most frequently in the highest educated group. A dose–response was observed between the amount smoked and the presence of respiratory diseases. Conclusions Smoking in South Africa is decreasing and should continue with the recently passed tobacco control legislation. Culturally appropriate tobacco cessation programmes for the identified target groups need to be developed.

Stochastic analysis of transit route segments' passenger load variation for capacity and quality of service assessment

This paper investigates stochastic analysis of transit segment hourly passenger load factor variation for transit capacity and quality of service (QoS) analysis using Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia. It compares stochastic analysis to traditional peak hour factor (PHF) analysis to gain further insight into variability of transit route segments’ passenger loading during a study hour. It demonstrates that hourly design load factor is a useful method of modeling a route segment’s capacity and QoS time history across the study weekday. This analysis method is readily adaptable to different passenger load standards by adjusting design percentile, reflecting either a more relaxed or more stringent condition. This paper also considers hourly coefficient of variation of load factor as a capacity and QoS assessment measure, in particular through its relationships with hourly average and design load factors. Smaller value reflects uniform passenger loading, which is generally indicative of well dispersed passenger boarding demands and good schedule maintenance. Conversely, higher value may be indicative of pulsed or uneven passenger boarding demands, poor schedule maintenance, and/or bus bunching. An assessment table based on hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is developed and applied to this case study. Inferences are drawn for a selection of study hours across the weekday studied.

Stochastic analysis of transit route segments' passenger load variation for capacity & quality of service assessment

This study uses weekday Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data on a premium bus line in Brisbane, Australia •Stochastic analysis is compared to peak hour factor (PHF) analysis for insight into passenger loading variability •Hourly design load factor (e.g. 88th percentile) is found to be a useful method of modeling a segment’s passenger demand time-history across a study weekday, for capacity and QoS assessment •Hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is found to be a useful QoS and operational assessment measure, particularly through its relationship with hourly average load factor, and with design load factor •An assessment table based on hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is developed from the case study

Unmodified silver nanoparticles for rapid analysis of the organophosphorus pesticide, dipterex, often found in different waters

A novel, uncomplicated and rapid method of analysis for organophosphorus (OP) pesticides was researched and developed using the important, common OP, dipterex, as a typical example. The basis of the method involved the citrate-capped silver nanoparticles (citrate-capped AgNPs) and Acetylthiocholine (ATCh). The latter compound can be catalyzed by Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) to form thiocholine (TCh), which induces the aggregation of AgNPs. Correspondingly, the color of AgNPs in solution changes from bright yellow to pink, and the UV–vis characteristic absorption peak of AgNPs at about 400 nm decreases; simultaneously, a new absorption band appears at about 520 nm. Irreversible inhibition of AChE activity caused by dipterex, prevents the aggregation of AgNPs. Thus, a UV–vis spectrophotometric method was developed for the analysis of dipterex. The absorbance ratio A396 nm/A520 nm was found to be linearly related to the concentration of dipterex in the range of 0.25–37.5 ng mL−1 with a detection limit of 0.18 ng mL−1. This method was used successfully to analyse dipterex in spiked, different water samples.

Aerothermal-strucutral analysis of a rocket launched Mach 8 scramjet experiment : ascent

This paper reports on the methodology and results of a weak-coupled aerothermalstructural analysis on the ascent phase of the SCRAMSPACE Mach 8 scramjet flight experiment. This vehicle was essentially un-shrouded during the flight trajectory, relying on the thin, 5mm thick aluminium external shell of the payload to maintain structural integrity and protect the flight experiment. As such, understanding the thermal-structural response of the vehicle was imperative to mission success. Using two- and three-dimensional models, an iterative procedure was employed to compute the flowfield, convective heating, wall temperatures and structural coupling at flight times covering both peak heating and peak surface temperature. Accounting for such coupling resulted in a 150K reduction in wall temperature compared to the more conservative cold wall assumption. Despite this, peak temperatures remained of the order of 550 K. Further, thermally induced stresses within these regions were in excess of four times the material failure limits. Irreversible material failure during ascent was therefore concluded likely to occur on the external shell. Two alternate materials, steel 1006 and copper, were therefore assessed with the results indicating that steel sections on the external shell resulted in the best thermal-structural response of the payload.

How different are complications that affect the older adult inpatient?

Objective: The incidence and cost of complications occurring in older and younger inpatients were compared. Design: Secondary analysis of hospital-recorded diagnosis and costs for multiday-stay inpatients in 68 public hospitals in two Australian states. Main outcome measures: A complication is defined as a hospital-acquired diagnosis that required additional treatment. The Australian Classification of Hospital-Acquired Diagnoses system is used to identify these complications. Results: Inpatients aged >70 years have a 10.9% complication rate, which is not substantially different from the 10.89% complication rate found in patients aged <70 years. Examination of the probability by single years, however, showed that the peak incidence associated with the neonatal period and childbirth is balanced by rates of up to 20% in patients >80 years. Examining the adult patient population (40–70 years), we found that while some common complications are not age specific (electrolyte disorders and cardiac arrhythmias), others (urinary tract and lower respiratory tract infections) are more common in the older adult inpatient. Conclusion: For inpatients aged >70 years, the risks of complications increase. The incidence of hospital-acquired diagnoses in older adults differs significantly from incidence rates found in younger cohorts. Urinary tract infection and alteration to mental state are more common in older adult inpatients. Surprisingly, these complexities do not result in additional costs when compared with costs for the same complications in younger adults. Greater awareness of these differing patterns will allow patient safety efforts for older patients to focus on complications with the highest incidence and cost.

Are road traffic crash fatality rates converging among OECD countries?

This article examines the trends of road traffic crash (RTC) fatality rates in OECD countries over the past four decades. Based on recent developments in the economic growth literature we propose and test the hypothesis that RTC fatality rates initially increase with economic development, peak, and then gradually decrease. The theory predicts that, as a result, the RTC fatality rates of different countries will tend to converge over time. Our results for the period 1961–2007 reveal no evidence of the convergence of RTC fatality rates across the OECD as a whole for that time period. Nevertheless, there is evidence of convergence among sub-groups of countries. This evidence may assist policymakers as an additional way of benchmarking their country's performance against that of its peers and to identify the next-closest peer in country sub-groups with superior road safety performance.

Empirical modelling of the relationship between bus and car speeds on signalised urban networks

Vehicle speed is an important attribute for analysing the utility of a transport mode. The speed relationship between multiple modes of transport is of interest to traffic planners and operators. This paper quantifies the relationship between bus speed and average car speed by integrating Bluetooth data and Transit Signal Priority data from the urban network in Brisbane, Australia. The method proposed in this paper is the first of its kind to relate bus speed and average car speed by integrating multi-source traffic data in a corridor-based method. Three transferable regression models relating not-in-service bus, in-service bus during peak periods, and in-service bus during off-peak periods with average car speed are proposed. The models are cross-validated and the interrelationships are significant.

Temporal characteristics of melanopsin inputs to the human pupil light reflex

Rods, cones and melanopsin containing intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGCs) operate in concert to regulate pupil diameter. The temporal properties of intrinsic ipRGC signalling are distinct to those of rods and cones, including longer latencies and sustained signalling after light offset. We examined whether the melanopsin mediated post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) and pupil constriction were dependent upon the inter-stimulus interval (ISI) between successive light pulses and the temporal frequency of sinusoidal light stimuli. Melanopsin excitation was altered by variation of stimulus wavelength (464 nm and 638 nm lights) and irradiance (11.4 and 15.2 log photons cm(-2) s(-1)). We found that 6s PIPR amplitude was independent of ISI and temporal frequency for all melanopsin excitation levels, indicating complete summation. In contrast to the PIPR, the maximum pupil constriction increased with increasing ISI with high and low melanopsin excitation, but time to minimum diameter was slower with high melanopsin excitation only. This melanopsin response to briefly presented pulses (16 and 100 ms) slows the temporal response of the maximum pupil constriction. We also demonstrate that high melanopsin excitation attenuates the phasic peak-trough pupil amplitude compared to conditions with low melanopsin excitation, indicating an interaction between inner and outer retinal inputs to the pupil light reflex. We infer that outer retina summation is important for rapidly controlling pupil diameter in response to short timescale fluctuations in illumination and may occur at two potential sites, one that is presynaptic to extrinsic photoreceptor input to ipRGCs, or another within the pupil control pathway if ipRGCs have differential temporal tuning to extrinsic and intrinsic signalling.

The epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China, 2004–2012 : from intensified control to elimination

Background In China, the national malaria elimination programme has been operating since 2010. This study aimed to explore the epidemiological changes in patterns of malaria in China from intensified control to elimination stages. Methods Data on nationwide malaria cases from 2004 to 2012 were extracted from the Chinese national malaria surveillance system. The secular trend, gender and age features, seasonality, and spatial distribution by Plasmodium species were analysed. Results In total, 238,443 malaria cases were reported, and the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum increased drastically from <10% before 2010 to 55.2% in 2012. From 2004 to 2006, malaria showed a significantly increasing trend and with the highest incidence peak in 2006 (4.6/100,000), while from 2007 onwards, malaria decreased sharply to only 0.18/100,000 in 2012. Males and young age groups became the predominantly affected population. The areas affected by Plasmodium vivax malaria shrunk, while areas affected by P. falciparum malaria expanded from 294 counties in 2004 to 600 counties in 2012. Conclusions This study demonstrated that malaria has decreased dramatically in the last five years, especially since the Chinese government launched a malaria elimination programme in 2010, and areas with reported falciparum malaria cases have expanded over recent years. These findings suggest that elimination efforts should be improved to meet these changes, so as to achieve the nationwide malaria elimination goal in China in 2020.

Impact of technology uptake on an Australian electricity distribution network

This paper presents simulation results for future electricity grids using an agent-based model developed with MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model). MODAM is introduced and its use demonstrated through four simulations based on a scenario that expects a rise of on-site renewable generators and electric vehicles (EV) usage. The simulations were run over many years, for two areas in Townsville, Australia, capturing variability in space of the technology uptake, and for two charging methods for EV, capturing people's behaviours and their impact on the time of the peak load. Impact analyses of these technologies were performed over the areas, down to the distribution transformer level, where greater variability of their contribution to the assets peak load was observed. The MODAM models can be used for different purposes such as impact of renewables on grid sizing, or on greenhouse gas emissions. The insights gained from using MODAM for technology assessment are discussed.