Novel experiment on in-cylinder desorption of fuel from the oil layer

A technique has been developed to measure the desorption and subsequent oxidation of fuel in the oil layer by spiking the oil with liquid fuel and firing the engine on gaseous fuel or motoring with air. Experiments suggest that fuel desorption is not diffusion limited above 50°C and indicated that approximately two to four percent of the cylinder oil layer is fresh oil from the sump. The increase in hydrocarbon emissions is of the order of 100 ppmC1 per 1% liquid fuel introduced into the fresh oil in a methane fired engine at mid-speed and light load conditions. Calculations indicate that fuel desorbing from oil is much more likely to produce hydrocarbon emissions than fuel emerging from crevices. © Copyright 1994 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Simulations of thermal upgrading methods for oil shale reservoirs

This paper analyzes reaction and thermal front development in porous reservoirs with reacting flows, such as those encountered in shale oil extraction. A set of dimensionless parameters and a 3D code are developed in order to investigate the important physical and chemical variables of such reservoirs when heated by in situ methods. This contribution builds on a 1D model developed for the precursor study to this work. Theory necessary for this study is presented, namely shale decomposition chemical mechanisms, governing equations for multiphase flow in porous media and necessary closure models. Plotting the ratio of the thermal wave speed to the fluid speed allows one to infer that the reaction wave front ends where this ratio is at a minimum. The reaction front follows the thermal front closely, thus allowing assumptions to be made about the extent of decomposition solely by looking at thermal wave progression. Furthermore, this sensitivity analysis showed that a certain minimum permeability is required in order to ensure the formation of a traveling thermal wave. It was found that by studying the non-dimensional governing parameters of the system one can ascribe characteristic values for these parameters for given initial and boundary conditions. This allows one to roughly predict the performance of a particular method on a particular reservoir given approximate values for initial and boundary conditions. Channelling and flow blockage due to carbon residue buildup impeded each method's performance. Blockage was found to be a result of imbalanced heating. Copyright 2012, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Towards robust design of axial compressors with uncertainty quantification

Operational uncertainties such as throttle excursions, varying inlet conditions and geometry changes lead to variability in compressor performance. In this work, the main operational uncertainties inherent in a transonic axial compressor are quantified to deter- mine their effect on performance. These uncertainties include the effects of inlet distortion, metal expansion, ow leakages and blade roughness. A 3D, validated RANS model of the compressor is utilized to simulate these uncertainties and quantify their effect on polytropic efficiency and pressure ratio. To propagate them, stochastic collocation and sparse pseudospectral approximations are used. We demonstrate that lower-order approximations are sufficient as these uncertainties are inherently linear. Results for epistemic uncertainties in the form of meshing methodologies are also presented. Finally, the uncertainties considered are ranked in order of their effect on efficiency loss. © 2012 AIAA.

Coupling model uncertainty for coupled rainfall/runoff and surface water quality models in river problems

Coupled hydrology and water quality models are an important tool today, used in the understanding and management of surface water and watershed areas. Such problems are generally subject to substantial uncertainty in parameters, process understanding, and data. Component models, drawing on different data, concepts, and structures, are affected differently by each of these uncertain elements. This paper proposes a framework wherein the response of component models to their respective uncertain elements can be quantified and assessed, using a hydrological model and water quality model as two exemplars. The resulting assessments can be used to identify model coupling strategies that permit more appropriate use and calibration of individual models, and a better overall coupled model response. One key finding was that an approximate balance of water quality and hydrological model responses can be obtained using both the QUAL2E and Mike11 water quality models. The balance point, however, does not support a particularly narrow surface response (or stringent calibration criteria) with respect to the water quality calibration data, at least in the case examined here. Additionally, it is clear from the results presented that the structural source of uncertainty is at least as significant as parameter-based uncertainties in areal models. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of ilities for protection against uncertainty in system design

The concepts of reliability, robustness, adaptability, versatility, resilience and flexibility have been used to describe how a system design can mitigate the likely impact of uncertainties without removing their sources. With the increasing number of publications on designing systems to have such ilities, there is a need to clarify the relationships between the different ideas. This short article introduces a framework to compare these different ways in which a system can be insensitive to uncertainty, clarifying their meaning in the context of complex system design. We focus on relationships between the ilities listed above and do not discuss in detail methods to design-for-ilities. © 2013 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.

Efficient parametric uncertainty analysis within the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis method

This paper is concerned with the development of efficient algorithms for propagating parametric uncertainty within the context of the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FE/SEA) approach to the analysis of complex vibro-acoustic systems. This approach models the system as a combination of SEA subsystems and FE components; it is assumed that the FE components have fully deterministic properties, while the SEA subsystems have a high degree of randomness. The method has been recently generalised by allowing the FE components to possess parametric uncertainty, leading to two ensembles of uncertainty: a non-parametric one (SEA subsystems) and a parametric one (FE components). The SEA subsystems ensemble is dealt with analytically, while the effect of the additional FE components ensemble can be dealt with by Monte Carlo Simulations. However, this approach can be computationally intensive when applied to complex engineering systems having many uncertain parameters. Two different strategies are proposed: (i) the combination of the hybrid FE/SEA method with the First Order Reliability Method which allows the probability of the non-parametric ensemble average of a response variable exceeding a barrier to be calculated and (ii) the combination of the hybrid FE/SEA method with Laplace's method which allows the evaluation of the probability of a response variable exceeding a limit value. The proposed approaches are illustrated using two built-up plate systems with uncertain properties and the results are validated against direct integration, Monte Carlo simulations of the FE and of the hybrid FE/SEA models. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Bayesian parameter identification for vibro-acoustic models with nonparametric uncertainty

Vibration and acoustic analysis at higher frequencies faces two challenges: computing the response without using an excessive number of degrees of freedom, and quantifying its uncertainty due to small spatial variations in geometry, material properties and boundary conditions. Efficient models make use of the observation that when the response of a decoupled vibro-acoustic subsystem is sufficiently sensitive to uncertainty in such spatial variations, the local statistics of its natural frequencies and mode shapes saturate to universal probability distributions. This holds irrespective of the causes that underly these spatial variations and thus leads to a nonparametric description of uncertainty. This work deals with the identification of uncertain parameters in such models by using experimental data. One of the difficulties is that both experimental errors and modeling errors, due to the nonparametric uncertainty that is inherent to the model type, are present. This is tackled by employing a Bayesian inference strategy. The prior probability distribution of the uncertain parameters is constructed using the maximum entropy principle. The likelihood function that is subsequently computed takes the experimental information, the experimental errors and the modeling errors into account. The posterior probability distribution, which is computed with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, provides a full uncertainty quantification of the identified parameters, and indicates how well their uncertainty is reduced, with respect to the prior information, by the experimental data. © 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Headspace solid-phase microextraction with novel sol-gel permethylated-beta-cyclodextrin/hydroxyl-termination silicone oil fiber for determination of polybrominated diphenyl ethers by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in soil

A simple, sensitive, and accurate method for determination of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in soil has been developed based on headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) followed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Permethylated-beta-cyclodextrin/hydroxyl-termination silicone oil (PM-beta-CD/OH-TSO) fiber was first prepared by sol-gel technology and employed in SPME procedure. By exploiting the superiorities of sot-gel coating technique and the advantages of the high hydrophobic doughnut-shaped cavity of PM-beta-CD, the novel fiber showed desirable operational stability and extraction ability. After optimization on extraction conditions like water addition, extraction temperature, extraction time, salts effect, and solvents addition, the method was validated in soil samples, achieving good linearity (r>0.999), precision (R.S.D. < 10%), accuracy (recovery>78%), and detection limits (S/N =3) raging from 13.0 to 78.3 pg/g. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A role of monitoring to reduce the uncertainty in the performance of pile foundations

In typical conventional foundation design, the inherent variability of soil properties, model uncertainty and construction variability are not modeled explicitly. A main drawback of this is that the effect of each variability on the probability of an unfavorable event cannot be evaluated quantitatively. In this paper, a method to evaluate the uncertainty-reduction effect on the performance of a vertically-loaded pile foundation by monitoring the pile performance (such as pile load testing or placing sensors in piles) is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is examined based on the investigation of a 120-pile foundation placed on three different ground profiles. The computed results show the capability of evaluating the uncertainty-reduction effect on the performance of a pile foundation by monitoring. © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, London.

Integrating design attributes, knowledge and uncertainty in aerospace sector

The delivery of integrated product and service solutions is growing in the aerospace industry, driven by the potential of increasing profits. Such solutions require a life cycle view at the design phase in order to support the delivery of the equipment. The influence of uncertainty associated with design for services is increasingly a challenge due to information and knowledge constraints. There is a lack of frameworks that aim to define and quantify relationship between information and knowledge with uncertainty. Driven by this gap, the paper presents a framework to illustrate the link between uncertainty and knowledge within the design context for services in the aerospace industry. The paper combines industrial interaction and literature review to initially define the design attributes, the associated knowledge requirements and the uncertainties experienced. The framework is then applied in three cases through development of causal loop models (CLMs), which are validated by industrial and academic experts. The concepts and inter-linkages are developed with the intention of developing a software prototype. Future recommendations are also included. © 2014 CIRP.