The environmental impacts of technical change

The thesis is concerned with relationships between profit, technology and environmental change. Existing work has concentrated on only a few questions, treated at either micro or macro levels of analysis. And there has been something of an impasse since the neoclassical and neomarxist approaches are either in direct conflict (macro level), or hardly interact (micro level). The aim of the thesis was to bypass this impasse by starting to develop a meso level of analysis that focusses on issues largely ignored in the traditional approaches - on questions about distribution. The first questions looked at were descriptive - what were the patterns of distribution over time of the variability in types and rates of environmental change, and in particular, was there any evidence of periodization? Two case studies were used to examine these issues. The first looked at environmental change in the iron and steel industry since 1700, and the second studied pollution in five industries in the basic processing sector. It was established that environmental change has been markedly periodized, with an apparently fairly regular `cycle length' of about fifty years. The second questions considered were explanatory - whether and how this periodization could be accounted for by reference to variations in aspects of profitability and technical change. In the iron and steel industry, it was found that diffusion rates and the rate of nature of innovation were periodized on the same pattern as was environmental change. And the same sort of variation was also present in the realm of profits, as evidenced by cyclical changes in output growth. Simple theoretical accounts could be given for all the empirically demonstrable links, and it was suggested that the most useful models at this meso level of analysis are provided by structural change models of economic development.

"Crack down on the celebrity junkies": does media coverage of celebrity drug use pose a risk to young people?

This study analysed news media content to examine the role played by celebrity drug use in young people's perceptions of drug use. We know that young people have access to discourses of drug use through music and other media which may emphasise short term gains (of pleasure or sexual success) over longer term health and social problems. This study goes beyond a simple modelling approach by using Media Framing Analysis (MFA) to take an in-depth look at the messages themselves and how they are 'framed'. New stories about Amy Winehouse's drug use were used and we conducted focus groups with young people asking them questions about drugs, celebrity and the media. Frames identified include: 'troubled genius', 'losing patience' and 'glamorization or gritty realism'. Initially, the press championed Winehouse's musical talent but soon began to tire of her recklessness; the participants tended to be unimpressed with Winehouse's drug use, characterising her as a promising artist who had 'gone off the rails'. Young people were far more critical of Winehouse than might be expected, demonstrating that concerns about the influence of celebrity drug use and its impact on future health risk behaviour among young people may have been over-simplified and exaggerated. This study illustrates the need to understand young people and their frames of reference within popular culture when designing drug awareness information relevant to them. Furthermore, it indicates that critical media skills analysis may contribute to health risk education programmes related to drug use.

The need for and improvement of budgetary planning in a multinational corporation

The aim of this research is to improve the planning methodology of Dunlop via an analysis of their annual planning system. This was approached via an investigation of how the plans were developed; extensive interviews, which analysed divisional attitudes and approaches to planning; an analysis of forecast accuracy; and participation in the planning system itself. These investigations revealed certain deficiencies in the operating of the system. In particular, little evidence of formal planning could be found, and some divisions were reacting ex post to the market, rather than planning ex ante. The resulting plans tended to lack resilience and were generally unrealistic, partly because of imposed targets. Similarly, because the links between the elements of the system were often inefficient, previously agreed strategies were not always implemented. The analysis of forecast accuracy in the plans revealed divisions to be poor at most aspects of forecasting. Simple naive models often outperformed divisional forecasts, and much of the error was attributed to systematic, and therefore eliminable factors. These analyses suggested the need for a new system which is proposed in the form of Budgetary Planning. This system involves conceptual changes within the current planning framework. Such changes aim to revise tactical planning in order to meet the needs placed on it by. in particular, strategic planning. Budgetary Planning is an innovation in terms of the current planning literature. It is a total system of annual planning aimed at implementing and controlling the iteratively agreed strategies within the current environment. This is achieved by the generation of tactical alternatives, variable funding and concentration of forecast credibility, all of which aid both the realism and the resilience of planning.

Technical innovation in industrial production

New techniques in manufacturing, popularly referred to as mechanization and automation, have been a preoccupation of social and economic theorists since the industrial revolution. A selection of relevant literature is reviewed, including the neoclassical economic treatment of technical change. This incorporates alterations to the mathematical production function and an associated increase in the efficiency with which the factors of production are converted into output. Other work emphasises the role of research and development and the process of diffusion, whereby new production techniques are propagated throughout industry. Some sociological writings attach importance to the type of production technology and its effect on the organisational structure and social relations within the factory. Nine detailed case studies are undertaken of examples of industrial innovation in the rubber, automobile, vehicle components, confectionery and clothing industries. The old and new techniques are compared for a range of variables, including capital equipment, labour employed, raw materials used, space requirements and energy consumption, which in most cases exhibit significant change with the innovation. The rate of output, labour productivity, product quality, maintenance requirements and other aspects are also examined. The process by which the change in production method was achieved is documented, including the development of new equipment and the strategy of its introduction into the factory, where appropriate. The firm, its environment, and the attitude of different sectors of the workforce are all seen to play a part in determining the motives for and consequences which flow from the innovations. The traditional association of technical progress with its labour-saving aspect, though an accurate enough description of the cases investigated, is clearly seen to afford an inadequate perspective for the proper understanding of this complex phenomenon, which also induces change in a wide range of other social, economic and technical variables.

Why are optimistic entrepreneurs successful? An application of the regulatory focus theory

Does entrepreneurial optimism affect business performance? Using a unique data set based on repeated survey design, we investigate this relationship empirically. Our measures of ëoptimismí and ërealismí are derived from comparing the turnover growth expectations of ...133 owners-managers with the actual outcomes one year later. Our results indicate that entrepreneurial optimists perform significantly better in terms of profits than pessimists. Moreover, it is the optimist-realist combination that performs best. We interpret our results using regulatory focus theory.

Why are optimistic entrepreneurs successful? An application of the regulatory focus theory

Does entrepreneurial optimism affect business performance? Using a unique data set based on repeated survey design, we investigate this relationship empirically. Our measures of ‘optimism’ and ‘realism’ are derived from comparing the turnover growth expectations of 133 owners-managers with the actual outcomes one year later. Our results indicate that entrepreneurial optimists perform significantly better in terms of profits than pessimists. Moreover, it is the optimist-realist combination that performs best. We interpret our results using regulatory focus theory.

Critical practice and the public pedagogy of environmental and conservation media

This article addresses the reluctance of mainstream corporate and commercial media to critically address major environmental and conservation issues. The resulting public pedagogy largely reproduces the neoliberal ideology informing much conservation practice and discourse. Nonetheless, the media retains an unrealised critical educative potential that needs to be drawn upon by critical media practitioners and educators. To do this, educators need to be cognisant of the phenomenological experience of spectatorship, the aesthetic form and relational contexts of media consumption, production and informal learning. Referring to the work of Vivian Sobchack, Henry Giroux, Pierre Bourdieu and Gilles Deleuze, the article argues that if critical practitioner-educators apply an analytic framework informed by critical realism, counter-hegemonic elements found within corporate and independent media productions and conservation initiatives may be rearticulated and re-presented in a more positive manner. For this to occur, critical media practitioners-educators need to recognise that feasible political and normative alternatives are both available and practically possible. The article ends by discussing some relatively recent non-fiction productions that express a commonality between human and non-human animals and so form the basis of a critical environmental education-media practice.

Burden or benefit? Regulation as a dynamic influence on small business performance

This article contributes to contemporary debates concerning the impact of regulation on small business performance. Reassessing previous studies, we build our insights on their useful, but partial, approaches. Prior studies treat regulation principally as a static and negative influence, thereby neglecting the full range of regulatory effects on business performance. This study adopts a more nuanced approach, one informed by critical realism, that conceptualises social reality as stratified, and social causality in terms of the actions of human agents situated within particular social-structural contexts. We theorise regulation as a dynamic force, enabling as well as constraining performance, generating contradictory performance effects. Such regulatory effects flow directly from adaptations to regulation, and indirectly via relationships with the wide range of close and distant stakeholders with whom small businesses interact. Future research should examine these contradictory regulatory influences on small business performance.

Can psychometric testing be used to explain, predict and measure behavioural competences and the funding resource orchestration of the entrepreneur?

Financing is a critical entrepreneurial activity (Shane et al. 2003) and within the study of entrepreneurship, behaviour has been identified as an area requiring further exploration (Bird et al. 2012). Since 2008 supply side conditions for SMEs have been severe and increasingly entrepreneurs have to bundle or ‘orchestrate’ funding from a variety of sources in order to successfully finance the firm (Wright and Stigliani 2013: p.15). This longitudinal study uses psychometric testing to measure the behavioural competences of a panel of sixty entrepreneurs in the Creative Industries sector. Interviews were conducted over a 3 year period to identify finance finding behaviour. The research takes a pragmatic realism perspective to examine process and the different behavioural competences of entrepreneurs. The predictive qualities of this behaviour are explored in a funding context. The research confirmed a strong behavioural characteristic as validated through interviews and psychometric testing, was an orientation towards engagement and working with other organisations. In a funding context, this manifested itself in entrepreneurs using networks, seeking advice and sharing equity to fund growth. These co-operative, collaborative characteristics are different to the classic image of the entrepreneur as a risk-taker or extrovert. Leadership and achievement orientation were amongst the lowest scores. Three distinctive groups were identified and also shown by subsequent analysis to be a positive contribution to how entrepreneurial behavioural competences can be considered. Belonging to one of these three clusters is a strong predictive indicator of entrepreneurial behaviour – in this context, how entrepreneurs access finance. These Clusters were also proven to have different characteristics in relation to funding outcomes. The study seeks to make a contribution through the development of a methodology for entrepreneurs, policy makers and financial institutions to identify competencies in finding finance and overcome problems in information asymmetry.

Formative variables and unreal variables:why the formative MIMIC model is invalid

In this rejoinder, we provide a response to the three commentaries written by Diamantopoulos, Howell, and Rigdon (all this issue) on our paper The MIMIC Model and Formative Variables: Problems and Solutions (also this issue). We contrast the approach taken in the latter paper (where we focus on clarifying the assumptions required to reject the formative MIMIC model) by spending time discussing what assumptions would be necessary to accept the use of the formative MIMIC model as a viable approach. Importantly, we clarify the implications of entity realism and show how it is entirely logical that some theoretical constructs can be considered to have real existence independent of their indicators, and some cannot. We show how the formative model only logically holds when considering these ‘unreal’ entities. In doing so, we provide important counter-arguments for much of the criticisms made in Diamantopoulos’ commentary, and the distinction also helps clarify a number of issues in the commentaries of Howell and Rigdon (both of which in general agree with our original paper). We draw together these various threads to provide a set of conceptual tools researchers can use when thinking about the entities in their theoretical models.

A közgazdaságtan metodológiájáról és a matematikai közgazdaságtanról a Neumann-modell ürügyén

A dolgozatban a Neumann-modell lehetséges elméleti és módszertani rokonságát elemezzük annak fényében, hogy mind a neoklasszikusok, mind a klasszikus hagyományokat felélesztő neoricardiánusok a magukénak vallják. Ennek során megvizsgáljuk a klasszikus és a neoklasszikus gazdaságfelfogás, az ex post és az ex ante szemléletű modellek közötti különbségeket, és azt a forradalmi jelentőségű módszertani változást, amely a sok szempontból joggal bírálható modern matematikai közgazdaságtan kialakulásához vezetett. Összevetjük Neumann modelljét az osztrák iskola árbeszámítási elméletével, a Walras­Cassel- és a Schlesinger­Wald-féle modellekkel, illetve a Ricardo, Marx, Dmitriev, Leontief nevekkel fémjelezhető klasszikus vonulat eredményeivel. Rámutatunk arra, hogy Neumann voltaképpen az "igazságos és értelmes gazdaság" ősi ideáját öntötte kora modern fizikájában honos matematikai modell formájába. /===/ The paper investigates the potential theoretical and methodological sources of inspiration of the von Neumann model, in view of the fact that both the neoclassical and the neo-Ricardian economists claim heritage to it. In the course of that the author assesses the main differences of the classical and neoclassical, the ex post and ex ante modeling approaches. He also confronts the von Neumann model with the Walras–Cassel and the Schlesinger–Wald models, and with models worked out in the classical tradition a’la Ricardo, Marx, Dmitriev and Leontief. He concludes that the Neumann-model is, in fact, nothing but a reformulation of a very old belief in a “just and reasonable economic system” based on the modern modeling approach of contemporary physics and mathematics.

A költségvetési hiány politikai gazdaságtana (The political economy of budgetary deficit)

A fejlett ipari országokra a hetvenes évektől mind inkább jellemző tartós költségvetési hiányt sem a keynesi, sem pedig a neoklasszikus elmélet nem tudta kielégítően magyarázni. Az új politikai gazdaságtan azonban, úgy tűnik, sikerrel tárta fel nemcsak a tartós hiány és a növekvő eladósodottság okait, hanem a fiskális politikai teljesítményben országok között és időben mutatkozó jelentős eltérések forrásait is. A siker elsősorban annak köszönhető, hogy az új politikai gazdaságtan a költségvetési politika alakításának politikai és intézményi korlátai felé fordult, azzal a nem titkolt szándékkal, hogy kiterjessze a főáramú közgazdaságtan határait, és beépítse modelljeibe a gazdaságpolitikai döntéshozatal folyamatát. Tanulmányunkban négy átfogó magyarázatot tekintünk át - ezek: 1. az adósságállomány stratégiai használata, 2. a stabilizáció elodázása, 3. a politikai és választási rendszerek különbözősége és 4. a gyenge vagy széttöredezett végrehajtói hatalom -, azzal az egyértelmű igénnyel, hogy a szokásos pozitív elemzést normatív vizsgálódással egészítsük ki. / === / Neither Keynesian nor Neoclassical theory managed to explain adequately the increasingly typical state of chronic budgetary deficit found in developed industrial countries since the 1970s. But the new political economy seems to have revealed the causes of the chronic deficit and mounting indebtedness and of the reasons for the marked differences in fiscal-policy performance between countries and periods. The success can be ascribed primarily to the fact that the new political economy turned to the political and institutional constraints on the formation of budgetary policy, with the unconcealed aim of broadening the bounds of mainstream economics and building the policy-making process into it. The study examines four comprehensive explanations: 1. strategic use of debt stock, 2. postponement of stabilization, 3. differences of political and electoral systems, and 4. weak or fragmented executive power, with the clear intention of complementing the customary positive analysis with a normative examination.

Kameralizmus, történelmi iskola, osztrák gazdaságtan. Három vázlat a német és osztrák közgazdasági diskurzus történetéből (Cameralism, the historical school and Austrian economics. Three outlines from the history of German and Austrian economic debate)

A kameralizmus a 16-18. századi német gyakorlati államtudomány és egyetemi tantárgy volt, amely összefoglalta a hivatalnokok képzéséhez szükséges elméleti és gyakorlati gazdasági ismereteket. Felfogása szerint az alattvalók jóléte és boldogsága feltétele az uralkodó gazdagságának, de az alattvalók önmaguktól nem képesek utat találni ehhez a boldogsághoz, szükség van az állandó külső irányításra. Igazgatásközpontúsága és egyetemi intézményesülése miatt nem tekinthető a merkantilizmus helyi változatának. Az 1840 és 1945 közötti német történeti iskola hagyományos ábrázolása több mint egy évszázadon át a német és a neoklasszikus tradíció szembenállását hangsúlyozta, kiemelve az organicizmus, a fejlődésgondolat és az egyediség jelentőségét, a szociális kérdés fontosságát, illetve a deduktív módszer és a gazdaság változatlan törvényeinek tagadását. A modern rekonstrukciók a történeti iskolát a posztklasszikus válságra adott egyik európai válaszként fogják fel, amely a történelemből levont, empirikusan megalapozott induktív alternatívát kínált. Az 1871-től kialakult osztrák iskola a neoklasszikus paradigmának egyszerre volt alkotórésze és versenytársa. A módszertani individualizmus, a szubjektivizmus, az idő fontossága, a tudás szerepe, az alternatív költségek elmélete stb. ugyan beépültek a mainstream közgazdaságtanba, de hangsúlyos kiemelésük lehetővé tette, hogy a társadalomelméleti magyarázat igényét őrző osztrák iskola megtartson valamit önálló beszédmódjából. / === / Cameralism was a practical political science and university subject in 16th–18th century Germany, summarizing the theoretical and practical economic knowledge required in the training of officials. The assumption was that the prosperity of the ruler depended on the welfare and happiness of the subjects, but the subjects themselves were not capable of achieving this happiness without permanent directions from above. Cameralism’s emphasis on administration and university institutionalization means that this approach cannot be seen as a local variant of mercantilism. The traditional account of the German historical school from 1840 to 1945 emphasized for over a century the contrast between the German and the Neoclassical traditions. It underlined the significance of the organic approach, the concept of development and individuality, the importance of the social question, and the denial of the deductive method and unalterable laws of the economy. Modern reconstructions see the historical school as one European response to the post-Classical crisis, offering an inductive alternative grounded empirically on history. The Austrian school formed in 1871 was at once a constituent of the Neoclassical paradigm and a rival to it. Methodological individualism, subjectivism, the importance of time, the role of knowledge, the theory of alternative costs etc. were absorbed into mainstream economics, but the focusing on these issues allowed the Austrian school, in keeping alive its demand for a social-theoretical explanation, to preserve something of an alternative discourse.

Géniuszok párharca. Milton Friedman és J. M. Keynes vitája Tim Congdon és Robert Skidelsky előadásában = War of the geniuses. The debate between Milton Friedman and J. M. Keynes as presented by Tim Congdon and Robert Skidelsky

Tavaly ünnepelte a közgazdász-társadalom Milton Friedman Nobel-díjas közgazdász születésének századik évfordulóját. A jubileumi megemlékezésnek különös aktualitást ad, hogy a 2008 óta tartó pénzügyi világválság hátterében ismét fellobbant a 20. századi közgazdaságtan két meghatározó irányzata - a Friedman nevével fémjelzett monetarizmus és a Keynes és követői által követett keynesizmus - közötti vita. E szerteágazó vitasorozat egyik "gyöngyszeme" két nemzetközileg ismert és elismert közgazdász, Tim Congdon és Robert (Lord) Skidelsky, összecsapása a Standpoint hasábjain 2009-ben. A szerző megmutatja, hogy a vita valójában nem a pénz fontosságáról vagy a mennyiségi pénzelmélet igazságáról folyt, hanem egyrészt egy sokkal elvontabb fogalomról: a bizonytalanság közgazdasági szerepéről, másrészt gyakorlati, gazdaságpolitikai kérdésekről: a monetáris és a fiskális politika lehetséges hatékonyságáról. A máig is tartó vitában "az inga többször kilengett", hol a keynesiánusok, hol a monetaristák javára, de még semmi nem dőlt el. ____ Last year economists marked the centenary of the birth of genius among them, Milton Friedman. The commemoration was especially topical because the world financial crisis that erupted in 2008 has brought sharply into focus again the old division in 20th-century economics between monetarism and Keynesianism. One highlight in this series of disputes was the 2009 clash between two internationally known and appreciated economists Tim Congdon and Robert (Lord) Skidelsky in the columns of Standpoint. The central element in the discussion is the role of money: what kind of economic policy to pursue, monetary or fiscal, to pull troubled economies out of crisis. The question closely resembles a decisive dilemma for Keynes in the 1930s. Though Keynes turned against some basic propositions of neoclassical economics, he never challenged the importance of money to the functioning of the economy, or the validity of the quantity theory of money. The author argues here that the issue is not about the formal category of money or demand for it, but about the far deeper economic concept of the role of uncertainty in economics. Another aspect concerns the relative efficiency of various kinds of economic policy, i. e. the strengths and weaknesses of monetary and fiscal policies.

Kornai’s DRSE Theory Versus General Equilibrium Theory

János Kornai’s DRSE theory (Kornai, 2014) follows the ex post model philosophy which radically rejects the ex ante set of conditions laid down by the dominant neoclassical school and the stringent limits of equilibrium, and defines its own premises for the functioning of capitalist economy. In other words, the DRSE theory represents an extremely novel trend among the various schools of economics. The theory is still only a verbal model with the following supporting pillars as the immanent features of the capitalist system: dynamism, rivalry and the surplus economy. (The English name of the theory uses the initial letters of the terms Dynamism, Rivalry, Surplus Economy). The dominance of the surplus economy, that is, oversupply is replaced by monopolistic competition, uncertainty over the volume of demand, Schumpeterian innovation, dynamism, technological progress, creative destruction and increasing return to scale with rivalry between producers and service providers for markets. This paper aims to examine whether the DRSE theory can be formulated as a formal mathematical model. We have chosen a special route to do this: first we explore the unreal ex ante assumptions of general equilibrium theory (Walras, 1874; Neumann, 1945), and then we establish some of the possible connections between the premises of DRSE, which include the crucial condition that just like in biological evolution, there is no fixed steady state in the evolutionary processes of market economy, not even as a point of reference. General equilibrium theory and DRSE theory are compared in the focus of Schumpeterian evolutionary economics.