The Open Provenance Model Core Specification (v1.1)

The Open Provenance Model is a model of provenance that is designed to meet the following requirements: (1) To allow provenance information to be exchanged between systems, by means of a compatibility layer based on a shared provenance model. (2) To allow developers to build and share tools that operate on such a provenance model. (3) To define provenance in a precise, technology-agnostic manner. (4) To support a digital representation of provenance for any 'thing', whether produced by computer systems or not. (5) To allow multiple levels of description to coexist. (6) To define a core set of rules that identify the valid inferences that can be made on provenance representation. This document contains the specification of the Open Provenance Model (v1.1) resulting from a community-effort to achieve inter-operability in the Provenance Challenge series.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Leakage Detection And Localization Method Based On A Hybrid Inverse/Direct Modelling Approach Suitable For Handling Multiple-Leak Scenarios

When an accurate hydraulic network model is available, direct modeling techniques are very straightforward and reliable for on-line leakage detection and localization applied to large class of water distribution networks. In general, this type of techniques based on analytical models can be seen as an application of the well-known fault detection and isolation theory for complex industrial systems. Nonetheless, the assumption of single leak scenarios is usually made considering a certain leak size pattern which may not hold in real applications. Upgrading a leak detection and localization method based on a direct modeling approach to handle multiple-leak scenarios can be, on one hand, quite straightforward but, on the other hand, highly computational demanding for large class of water distribution networks given the huge number of potential water loss hotspots. This paper presents a leakage detection and localization method suitable for multiple-leak scenarios and large class of water distribution networks. This method can be seen as an upgrade of the above mentioned method based on a direct modeling approach in which a global search method based on genetic algorithms has been integrated in order to estimate those network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks. This is an inverse / direct modeling method which tries to take benefit from both approaches: on one hand, the exploration capability of genetic algorithms to estimate network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks and on the other hand, the straightforwardness and reliability offered by the availability of an accurate hydraulic model to assess those close network areas around the estimated hotspots. The application of the resulting method in a DMA of the Barcelona water distribution network is provided and discussed. The obtained results show that leakage detection and localization under multiple-leak scenarios may be performed efficiently following an easy procedure.

Tecnologia de informação e colaboração interorganizacional: um estudo no varejo de grande porte no setor de confecção

A colaboração interorganizacional, é uma realidade que atinge muitas empresas, de todos os portes e setores. A TI aumenta a capacidade de gerenciamento e coordenação através de fronteiras organizacionais, permitindo redução de custos, otimização de recursos e melhor coordenação e o controle gerencial. Este projeto identificou o papel da TI nos relacionamentos colaborativos entre empresas. Para isso, analisou-se o emprego da TI no relacionamento colaborativo entre varejistas e fornecedores, no Setor de Confecção. Como resultado da pesquisa, os conceitos estabelecidos foram organizados em um modelo teórico e resumidos em um constructo sobre a colaboração interorganizacional apoiada pela TI.

Firms reaction to environmental regulation

International agreements arising from the need to deal with the global warming promoted by countries decided to embrace a climate change policy bring on the debate of the impacts on firms in a global competitive market. Facing, therefore, different environmental standards accordingly to firm’s physical location. Once European Union is taking the lead in adopting stringent environmental regulation, this study aims to assess the impact of environmental regulations on firms in Europe. A novel database was constructed providing firm-level air pollution emission information in the European Union. Using difference-in-difference model, the effect of the intervention of EU environmental policy change suggests a negative response in fixed assets among EU firms due to the 2006 EU policy. The evidence to the hypothesis that firms in European Union have been decreasing its firms fixed assets, as a proxy of production capacity, with the change in environmental regulation, provides general support for the PHH, however, it doesn’t remain in robustness checks. The contribution of this work is bringing a revisited view of the actual effect of environmental regulation based on Kyoto Protocol directives on European firms.

A (semi-)parametric functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration model

In this paper, we propose a class of ACD-type models that accommodates overdispersion, intermittent dynamics, multiple regimes, and sign and size asymmetries in financial durations. In particular, our functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration (FC-ACD) model relies on a smooth-transition autoregressive specification. The motivation lies on the fact that the latter yields a universal approximation if one lets the number of regimes grows without bound. After establishing that the sufficient conditions for strict stationarity do not exclude explosive regimes, we address model identifiability as well as the existence, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for the FC-ACD model with a fixed number of regimes. In addition, we also discuss how to consistently estimate using a sieve approach a semiparametric variant of the FC-ACD model that takes the number of regimes to infinity. An empirical illustration indicates that our functional coefficient model is flexible enough to model IBM price durations.

Price discovery in dual-class shares across multiple markets

We extend the standard price discovery analysis to estimate the information share of dual-class shares across domestic and foreign markets. By examining both common and preferred shares, we aim to extract information not only about the fundamental value of the rm, but also about the dual-class premium. In particular, our interest lies on the price discovery mechanism regulating the prices of common and preferred shares in the BM&FBovespa as well as the prices of their ADR counterparts in the NYSE and in the Arca platform. However, in the presence of contemporaneous correlation between the innovations, the standard information share measure depends heavily on the ordering we attribute to prices in the system. To remain agnostic about which are the leading share class and market, one could for instance compute some weighted average information share across all possible orderings. This is extremely inconvenient given that we are dealing with 2 share prices in Brazil, 4 share prices in the US, plus the exchange rate (and hence over 5,000 permutations!). We thus develop a novel methodology to carry out price discovery analyses that does not impose any ex-ante assumption about which share class or trading platform conveys more information about shocks in the fundamental price. As such, our procedure yields a single measure of information share, which is invariant to the ordering of the variables in the system. Simulations of a simple market microstructure model show that our information share estimator works pretty well in practice. We then employ transactions data to study price discovery in two dual-class Brazilian stocks and their ADRs. We uncover two interesting ndings. First, the foreign market is at least as informative as the home market. Second, shocks in the dual-class premium entail a permanent e ect in normal times, but transitory in periods of nancial distress. We argue that the latter is consistent with the expropriation of preferred shareholders as a class.

Multiple structural change models:a simulation analysis

In a reccnt paper. Bai and Perron (1998) considcrccl theoretical issues relatec\ lo lhe limiting distriblltion of estimators and test. statist.ics in the linear model \\'ith multiplc struct ural changes. \Ve assess. via simulations, the adequacy of the \'arious I1Iethods suggested. These CO\'er the size and power of tests for structural changes. the cO\'erage rates of the confidence Íntervals for the break dates and the relat.Í\'e merits of methods to select the I1umber of breaks. The \'arious data generating processes considered alIo,,' for general conditions OIl the data and the errors including differellces across segmcll(s. Yarious practical recommendations are made.

An economic model of gun control

Guns stolen from law-abiding households provide the principal source of guns for criminals. The lethality of crime instruments increases with the availability of guns, so the gun market is subject to externalities that generate excessive ownership and inadequate spending on protective measures to deter gun theft. One motive for gun ownership is self defense, and the gun market is subject to coordination failure: the more guns purchased lawfully, the more will be stolen by criminals, so the greater the incentive for lawful . consumers to purchase guns for self defense. As a result, there may be multiple equilibria in the gun market and more than one equilibrium crime rate. We show that a simple refundable deposit for guns will internalize the externalities in the gun market and may cause large downward jumps in gun ownership, the lethality of crime instruments, and the social costs of crime.

Multiple large shareholders in corporate governance

Large shareholders of firms with majority bIocks are often at the heIm of their companies and do not necessarily have the same interests as minority shareholders. We show that bargaining problems Ied by the presence of muItipIe controlling shareholders protect minority shareholders. The same bargaining problems, however, prevent efficient decisions. By solving this trade-off we find that i) muItipIe controlling shareholders should be present in firms with Iarge costs of diIuting minority shareholders and in firms with Iarge financing requirements, ii) an optimal ownership structure requires the presence of a dass of shareholders - the minority shareholders - with no control over corporate decisions. Evidence on the ownership structure of dose corporations in the V.S. is consistent with our model.

Multiple equilibria and protectionism

In a nonnative approach, I analyze trade policies when the industrial sector genentes positive extemalities in production, and there are adjustments costs to changing production from one sector to the other. Protectionist trade policy can make workers intemalize the benetits from moving into the industrial sector, but it is a second best policy as it also causes consumption distortions. I show that if the govemment is able to fully commit to its tariff schedule for the future, the welfare maximizing policy is to maintain a positive tariff forever, even after all adjustment has already taken place . However, if the govemment is not able to commit at all, the only time consistent policy is zero tariff at any point in time. The time inconsistency of the full commitment policy is derived from the fact that in the model only production needs interference, and the production distortion is lagged one period with respect to the tariff wbile the consumption distortion is simultaneous to the tariff. In the intermediary case, i.e., when the government can commit for a limited period of time, the time consistent optimal tariff will be positive but lower than the "full commitment" tariff. This result indicates that some institutions that have always been considered pure sources of inefficiency, such as protectionist lobbying, may in fact be welfare improving in some cases!

Entry mode choice and market selection of born globals in developing countries: a multiple-case study of the ecuadorian software sector

O fenômeno "Born global" refere-se a empresas que consideram o mercado global como seu contexto natural e que iniciam seu processo de internacionalização muito cedo após sua criação. As teorias tradicionais como o modelo de Uppsala não conseguem explicar este processo. Portanto, outras teorias têm surgido, como a perspectiva de redes. Existem alguns estudos relacionados a esta área, principalmente realizados em países desenvolvidos com pequenos mercados e economias abertas. No entanto, poucos estudos têm sido feitos em economias em desenvolvimento. Além disso, o número de pesquisas quanto à escolha do modo de entrada e seleção de mercados das empresas “born global” é bastante limitado. Consequentemente, este estudo pretende descrever os principais fatores que influenciam a escolha do modo de entrada e seleção de mercados das empresas, de economias em desenvolvimento, nascidas globais. O foco da pesquisa é a indústria de software e um estudo de casos múltiplo foi realizado com três empresas no Equador. A metodologia incluiu entrevistas com fundadores, bem como a coleta de dados secundários. Com base na evidência empírica, verificou-se que os principais fatores que influenciam a escolha do modo de entrada são as restrições financeiras, as receitas esperadas, a velocidade de internacionalização, mercados nicho e a experiência empresarial anterior dos fundadores. Por outro lado, a seleção de mercado é influenciada por semelhanças de língua e cultura, mercados nicho e relações em rede.

On theory multiple contraction

The one which is considered the standard model of theory change was presented in [AGM85] and is known as the AGM model. In particular, that paper introduced the class of partial meet contractions. In subsequent works several alternative constructive models for that same class of functions were presented, e.g.: safe/kernel contractions ([AM85, Han94]), system of spheres-based contractions ([Gro88]) and epistemic entrenchment-based contractions ([G ar88, GM88]). Besides, several generalizations of such model were investigated. In that regard we emphasise the presentation of models which accounted for contractions by sets of sentences rather than only by a single sentence, i.e. multiple contractions. However, until now, only two of the above mentioned models have been generalized in the sense of addressing the case of contractions by sets of sentences: The partial meet multiple contractions were presented in [Han89, FH94], while the kernel multiple contractions were introduced in [FSS03]. In this thesis we propose two new constructive models of multiple contraction functions, namely the system of spheres-based and the epistemic entrenchment-based multiple contractions which generalize the models of system of spheres-based and of epistemic entrenchment-based contractions, respectively, to the case of contractions (of theories) by sets of sentences. Furthermore, analogously to what is the case in what concerns the corresponding classes of contraction functions by one single sentence, those two classes are identical and constitute a subclass of the class of partial meet multiple contractions. Additionally, and as the rst step of the procedure that is here followed to obtain an adequate de nition for the system of spheres-based multiple contractions, we present a possible worlds semantics for the partial meet multiple contractions analogous to the one proposed in [Gro88] for the partial meet contractions (by one single sentence). Finally, we present yet an axiomatic characterization for the new class(es) of multiple contraction functions that are here introduced.

Leadership of portuguese community schools in the East Coast of the United States and the public policies of education: a multiple case studies

The Portuguese community schools of the United States located in the areas of larger Portuguese population concentration are social organizations that come materializing throughout decades the designs of the educative policies of the Portuguese government in relation to the expansion and preservation of the language, the culture and the history of Portugal. These designs of the educative policies are enrolled in the Constitution of the Republic (1976), in the Basic Law of Educative System (1986) and, over all, in the successive legislative norms (Decree-laws and ordinances) of the successive governments. Portuguese community schools in the United States are structuralized in analogous way to schools of the Portuguese geographic space. For this qualitative study (multiple case), four directors of Portuguese schools of the East Coast of the United States were interviewed; two schools are in the state of Rhode Island and the other two are in the state of Massachusetts. Also, it was administered the questionnaire on practices of leadership “Leadership Practices Inventory” (LPI) of Kouzes and Posner (2002) to collect additional data about practices of leadership on the directors of the schools. The LPI evaluates practices of leadership classifying them in five domains: (a) Model the way; (b) Inspire a shared vision; (c) Challenge the process; (d) Enable others to act; and, (e) Encourage the heart. Results of this qualitative research indicate that the Portuguese Government has not had an educative policy stimulant, coherent and consistent of support, incentive, maintenance and diffusion of the Portuguese language and culture and the directors of the studied schools they have a proactive and serving leadership style in conducting the management of Portuguese community schools. The five practices of leadership are highly practiced by the directors of the studied schools above all the practices “Enable others to act” and “Encourage the heart”.