Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Development and standardization of the Self-regulation Skills Interview (SRSI): A new clinical assessment tool for acquired brain injury

The Self-regulation Skills Interview (SRSI) is a clinical tool designed to measure a range of metacognitive skills essential for rehabilitation planning, monitoring an individual's progress, and evaluating the outcome of treatment interventions. The results of the present study indicated that the SRSI has sound interrater reliability and test-retest reliability. A principle components analysis revealed three SRSI factors: Awareness, Readiness to Change, and Strategy Behavior. A comparison between a group of 61 participants with acquired brain injury (ABI) and a group of 43 non-brain-injured participants indicated that the participants with ABI had significantly lower levels of Awareness and Strategy Behavior, but that level of Readiness to Change was not significantly different between the two groups. The significant relationship observed between the SRSI factors and measures of neuropsychological functioning confirmed the concurrent validity of the scale and supports the value of the SRSI for post-acute assessment.

Perceived need for mental health care, findings from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being

Background. The Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being was designed to detect and describe psychiatric morbidity, associated disability, service use and perceived need for care. The survey employed a single-phase interview methodology, delivering a field questionnaire to a clustered probability sample of 10641 Australians. Perceived need was sampled with an instrument designed for this survey, the Perceived Need for Care Questionnaire (PNCQ). This questionnaire gathers information about five categories of perceived need, assigning each to one of four levels of perceived need. Reliability and validity studies showed satisfactory performance of the instrument. Methods. Perceived need for mental health care in the Australian population has been analysed using PNCQ data, relating this to diagnostic and service utilization data from the above survey. Results. The survey findings indicate that an estimated 13.8 % of the Australian population have perceived need for mental health care. Those who met interview criteria for a psychiatric diagnosis and also expressed perceived need make up 9.9 % of the population. An estimated 11.0% of the population are cases of untreated prevalence, a minority (3.6% of the population) of whom expressed perceived need for mental health care. Among persons using services, those without a psychiatric diagnosis based on interview criteria (4.4% of the population), showed high levels of perceived met need. Conclusions. The overall rate of perceived need found by this methodology lies between those found in the USA and Canada. The findings suggest that service use in the absence of diagnosis elicited by survey questionnaires may often represent successful intervention. In the survey, untreated prevalence was commonly not accompanied by perceived need for mental health care.

Interactive health communication in preventive medicine - Internet-based strategies in teaching and research

Interactive health communication using Internet technologies is expanding the range and flexibility of intervention and teaching options available in preventive medicine and the health sciences. Advantages of interactive health communication include the enhanced convenience, novelty, and appeal of computer-mediated communication; its flexibility and interactivity; and automated processing. We outline some of these fundamental aspects of computer-mediated communication as it applies to preventive medicine. Further, a number of key pathways of information technology evolution are creating new opportunities for the delivery of professional education in preventive medicine and other health domains, as well as for delivering automated, self-instructional health behavior-change programs through the Internet. We briefly describe several of these key evolutionary pathways, We describe some examples from work we have done in Australia. These demonstrate how we have creatively responded to the challenges of these new information environments, and how they may be pursued in the education of preventive medicine and other health care practitioners and in the development and delivery of health behavior change programs through the Internet. Innovative and thoughtful applications of this new technology can increase the consistency, reliability, and quality of information delivered.

The development and evaluation of an incontinence screening questionnaire for female primary care

Although there is a high prevalence of leaking urine among Australian women, there are currently no standardized procedures for screening patients for incontinence in the primary care setting (known in Australia as general practice). In response to this, an incontinence screening questionnaire (ISQ) was developed and evaluated for use in general practice. Eighty-nine women completed an original compilation of 33 items that asked about situations associated with leaking urine, avoidance of leakage, and concern about leakage. Each item was assessed according to its acceptability for the population of female general practice patients, discriminative value, and test-retest reliability. These patients also underwent an objective test of incontinence, the 48-hour pad test, so that the screening items could be validated against an objective classification of incontinence. The study included women who had bladder control problems and those who did not. Eight items on the ISQ were shown to be acceptable to patients, discriminative, reliable, and valid indicators of objective incontinence. Five items were capable of predicting almost 70% of patients who showed objective leakage of urine and misclassified fewer than 15% of these patients. Those five items were selected for inclusion in the (refined) ISQ. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Assessing perceived need for mental health care in a community survey: development of the Perceived Need for Care Questionnaire (PNCQ)

Background: The Perceived Need for Care Questionnaire (PNCQ) was designed for the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing. The PNCQ complemented collection of data on diagnosis and disability with the survey participants' perceptions of their needs for mental health care and the meeting of those needs. The four-stage design of the PNCQ mimics a conversational exploration of the topic of perceived needs. Five categories of perceived need are each assigned to one of four levels of perceived need (no need, unmet need, partially met need and met need). For unmet need and partially met need, information on barriers to care is collected, Methods: Inter-rater reliabilities of perceived needs assessed by the PNCQ were examined in a study of 145 anxiety clinic attenders. Construct validity of these items was tested, using a multi-trait multi-method approach and hypotheses regarding extreme groups, in a study with a sample of 51 general practice and community psychiatric service patients. Results: The instrument is brief to administer and has proved feasible for use in various settings. Inter-rater reliabilities for major categories, measured by the kappa statistic, exceeded 0.60 in most cases; for the summary category of all perceived needs, inter-rater reliability was 0.62. The multi-trait multi-method approach lent support to the construct validity of the instrument, as did findings in extreme groups. Conclusions: The PNCQ shows acceptable feasibility, reliability and validity, adding to the range of assessment tools available for epidemiological and health services research.

General scales of community reaction to noise (dissatisfaction and perceived affectedness) are more reliable than scales of annoyance

General measures of reaction to noise, which assess the respondent's perceived affectedness or dissatisfaction, appear to be more valid and internally consistent than more narrow measures, such as specific assessment of noise annoyance. However, the test-retest reliability of general and specific measures has yet to be compared. As a part of the large-scale Sydney Airport Health Study, 97 respondents participated in the same interview twice, several weeks apart. Test-retest reliabilities were found to be significant (p

Community structure of Quaternary coral reefs compared with Recent life and death assemblages

This paper assesses the reliability with which fossil reefs record the diversity and community structure of adjacent Recent reefs. The diversity and taxonomic composition of Holocene raised fossil reefs was compared with those of modern reef coral life and death assemblages in adjacent moderate and low-energy shallow reef habitats Of Madang Lagoon, Papua New Guinea. Species richness per sample area and Shannon-Wiener diversity (H') were highest in the fossil reefs, intermediate in the life assemblages, and lowest in the death assemblages. The taxonomic composition of the fossil reefs was most similar to the combination of the life and death assemblages from the modern reefs adjacent to the two fossil reefs. Depth zonation was recorded accurately in the fossil reefs. The Madang fossil reefs represent time-averaged composites of the combined life and death assemblages as they existed at the time the reef was uplifted. Because fossil reefs include overlapping cohorts from the life and death assemblages, lagoonal facies of fossil reefs are dominated by the dominant sediment-producing taxa, which are not necessarily the most abundant in the life assemblage. Rare or slow-growing taxa accumulate more slowly than the encasing sediments and are underrepresented in fossil reef lagoons. Time-averaging dilutes the contribution of rare taxa, rather than concentrating their contribution. Consequently, fidelity indices developed for mollusks in sediments yield low values in coral reef death and fossil assemblages. Branching corals dominate lagoonal facies of fossil reefs because they are abundant, they grow and produce sediment rapidly, and most of the sediment they produce is not exported. Fossil reefs distinguished kilometer-scale variations in community structure more clearly than did the modern life assemblages. This difference implies that fossil,reefs may provide a better long-term record of community structure than modern reefs. This difference also suggests that modern kilometer-scale variation in coral reef community structure may have been reduced by anthropogenic degradation, even in the relatively unimpacted reefs of Madang Lagoon. Holocene and Pleistocene fossil reefs provide a time-integrated historical record of community composition and may be used as long-term benchmarks for comparison with modern, degraded, nearshore reefs. Comparisons between fossil reefs and degraded modern reefs display gross changes in community structure more effectively than they demonstrate local extinction of rare taxa.

Perceived need for mental health care: influences of diagnosis, demography and disability

Background. Recent major epidemiological studies have adopted increasingly multidimensional approaches to assessment. Several of these have included some assessment of perceived need for mental health care. The Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, conducted in 1997, included a particularly detailed examination of this construct, with an instrument with demonstrated reliability and validity. Methods. A clustered probability sample of 10641 Australians responded to the field questionnaire for this survey, including questions on perceived need either where there had been service utilization, or where a disorder was detected by administration of sections of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The confidentialized unit record file generated from the survey was analysed for determinants of perceived need. Results. Perceived need is increased in females, in people in the middle years of adulthood, and in those who have affective disorders or co-morbidity. Effects of diagnosis and disability can account for most of the differences in gender specific rates. With correction for these effects through regression, there is less perceived need for social interventions and possibly more for counselling in females; disability is confirmed as strongly positively associated with perceived need, as are the presence of affective disorders or co-morbidity. Conclusions. The findings of this study underscore the imperative for mental health services to be attentive and responsive to consumer perceived need. The substantial majority of people who are significantly disabled by mental health problems are among those who see themselves as having such needs.

Developing a reliable audit instrument to measure the physical environment for physical activity

Background: The physical environment plays an important role in influencing participation in physical activity, although which factors of the physical environment have the greatest effect on patterns of activity remain to be determined. We describe the development of a comprehensive instrument to measure the physical environmental factors that may influence walking and cycling in local neighborhoods and report on its reliability. Methods: Following consultation with experts from a variety of fields and a literature search, we developed a Systematic Pedestrian and Cycling Environmental Scan (SPACES) instrument and used it to collect data over a total of 1987 kilometers of roads in metropolitan Perth, Western Australia. The audit instrument is available from the first author on request. Additional environmental information was collected using desktop methods and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. We assessed inter- and intra-rater reliability of the instrument among the 16 observers who collected the data. Results: The observers reported that the audit instrument was easy to use. Both inter- and intra-rater reliability of the environmental scan instrument were generally high. Conclusions: Our instrument provides a reliable, practical, and easy to-use method for collecting detailed street-level data on physical environmental factors that are potential influences on walking in local neighborhoods.

Olanzapine vs risperidone in the management of schizophrenia: a randomized double-blind trial in Australia and New Zealand

Improved drug therapy for schizophrenia may represent the best strategy for reducing the costs of schizophrenia and the recurrent chronic course of the disease. Olanzapine and risperidone are atypical antipsychotic agents developed to meet this need. We report a multicenter, double-blind, parallel, 30-week study designed to compare the efficacy, safety, and associated resource use for olanzapine and risperidone in Australia and New Zealand. The study sample consisted of 65 patients who met DSM-IV criteria for schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or schizophreniform disorder. Olanzapine-treated patients showed a significantly greater reduction in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) total, and PANSS General Psychopathology scores at endpoint compared to the risperidone-treated patients. Response rates through 30 weeks showed a significantly greater proportion of olanzapine-treated patients had achieved a 20% or greater improvement in their PANSS total score compared to risperidone-treated patients. Olanzapine and risperidone were equivalent in their improvement of PANSS positive and negative scores and Clinical Global Impression-Severity of Illness scale (CGI-S) at endpoint. Using generic and disease-specific measures of quality of life, olanzapine-treated patients showed significant within-group improvement in most measures, and significant differences were observed in favor of olanzapine over risperidone in Quality of Life Scale (QLS) Intrapsychic Foundation and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36-item instrument (SF-36) Role Functioning Limitations-Emotional subscale scores. Despite the relatively small sample size, our study suggests that olanzapine has a superior risk:benefit profile compared to risperidone. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Using partially structured attitude measures to enhance the attitude-behavior relationship

This article recalls a classic scheme for categorizing attitude measures. One particular group of measures, those that rely on respondents' interpretations of partially structured stimuli, has virtually disappeared from attitude research. An attitude measure based on respondents' interpretation of partially structured stimuli is considered. Four studies employing such a measure demonstrate that it predicts unique variance in self-reported and actual behavior, beyond that predicted by explicit and contemporary implicit measures and regardless of whether the attitude object under consideration is wrought with social desirability concerns. Implications for conceptualizing attitude measurement and attitude-behavior relations are discussed.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Teen Triple P: A universal approach to reducing risk factors for behavioural and emotional problems in adolescents at the transition to high school

Teen Triple P is a multilevel system of intervention that is designed to provide parents with specific strategies to promote the positive development of their teenage children as they make the transition into high school and through puberty. The program is based on a combination of education about the developmental needs of adolescents, skills training to improve communication and problem-solving, plus specific modules to deal with common problems encountered by parents and adolescents that can escalate into major conflict and violence. It is designed to increase the engagement of parents of adolescent and pre-adolescent children by providing them with easy access to evidencebased parenting advice and support. This paper presents data collected as part of a survey of over 1400 students in first year high school at 9 Brisbane schools. The survey instrument was constructed to obtain students' reports about behaviour which is known to be associated with their health and wellbeing, and also on the extent to which their parents promoted or discouraged such behaviour at home, at school, and in their social and recreational activities in the wider community. Selected data from the survey were extracted and presented to parents at a series of parenting seminars held at the schools to promote appropriate parenting of teenagers. The objectives were to provide parents with accurate data about teenagers' behaviour, and about teenagers' reports of how they perceived their parents' behaviour. Normative data on parent and teenager behaviour will be presented from the survey as well as psychometric data relating to the reliability and validity of this new measure. Implications of this strategy for increasing parent engagement in parenting programs that aim to reduce behavioural and emotional problems in adolescents will be discussed.

Dental caries in cerebral palsied individuals and their caregivers` quality of life

To study the correlation between caries experience in individuals with cerebral palsy (CP) and the quality of life of their primary caregivers. Sixty-five non-institutionalized individuals, presenting CP, aged 2-21 years old, were evaluated for caries experience. Their respective caregivers aged 20-74 years old answered the Short Form 36 (SF-36) health survey and Independence Measure for Children. Fifty-eight non-disabled individuals (ND group), aged 2-21 years old, and their respective caregivers, aged 25-56 years old, were submitted to the same evaluation process as the CP group. Primary caregivers of CP individuals exhibited significantly lower scores than the ND group in all subscales of the SF-36 health survey questionnaire: physical functioning, physical role, bodily pain, general health, vitality, social functioning, emotional role and mental health. The CP group presented significantly higher values for the Decayed, Missed and Filled (DMF-T) index than the ND group and a significant negative correlation was obtained between the SF-36 and DMF-T index. The results suggest that caregivers of CP individuals exhibited worse quality of life than those of the non-disabled. A negative correlation exists between caries experience of CP individuals and their caregivers` quality of life.