From the 'Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade': intersectoral transfers and external credit in the Brazilian economy

The present paper examines the Brazilian experience from the 'Economic Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade'. Its aim is to advance an alternative measurement of the flows of extraordinary wealth (i.e. ground-rent and net external credit) available for appropriation in the Brazilian economy and to asses their relevance in sustaining the process of accumulation of industrial capital. That is done in order to provide further and more accurate evidence to the claim that the evolution of the Brazilian process of capital accumulation has been extremely dependent on the evolution of those masses of extraordinary wealth.

Detecting Deceit – Guessing or Assessing? Study on the Applicability of Veracity Assessment Methods in Human Intelligence

Intelligence from a human source, that is falsely thought to be true, is potentially more harmful than a total lack of it. The veracity assessment of the gathered intelligence is one of the most important phases of the intelligence process. Lie detection and veracity assessment methods have been studied widely but a comprehensive analysis of these methods’ applicability is lacking. There are some problems related to the efficacy of lie detection and veracity assessment. According to a conventional belief an almighty lie detection method, that is almost 100% accurate and suitable for any social encounter, exists. However, scientific studies have shown that this is not the case, and popular approaches are often over simplified. The main research question of this study was: What is the applicability of veracity assessment methods, which are reliable and are based on scientific proof, in terms of the following criteria? o Accuracy, i.e. probability of detecting deception successfully o Ease of Use, i.e. easiness to apply the method correctly o Time Required to apply the method reliably o No Need for Special Equipment o Unobtrusiveness of the method In order to get an answer to the main research question, the following supporting research questions were answered first: What kinds of interviewing and interrogation techniques exist and how could they be used in the intelligence interview context, what kinds of lie detection and veracity assessment methods exist that are reliable and are based on scientific proof and what kind of uncertainty and other limitations are included in these methods? Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing topic related studies and other papers. After the search phase, the understanding of the existing lie detection and veracity assessment methods was established through a meta-analysis. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted to compare scientifically valid lie detection and veracity assessment methods in terms of the assessment criteria. In addition, a field study was arranged to get a firsthand experience of the applicability of different lie detection and veracity assessment methods. The Studied Features of Discourse and the Studied Features of Nonverbal Communication gained the highest ranking in overall applicability. They were assessed to be the easiest and fastest to apply, and to have required temporal and contextual sensitivity. The Plausibility and Inner Logic of the Statement, the Method for Assessing the Credibility of Evidence and the Criteria Based Content Analysis were also found to be useful, but with some limitations. The Discourse Analysis and the Polygraph were assessed to be the least applicable. Results from the field study support these findings. However, it was also discovered that the most applicable methods are not entirely troublefree either. In addition, this study highlighted that three channels of information, Content, Discourse and Nonverbal Communication, can be subjected to veracity assessment methods that are scientifically defensible. There is at least one reliable and applicable veracity assessment method for each of the three channels. All of the methods require disciplined application and a scientific working approach. There are no quick gains if high accuracy and reliability is desired. Since most of the current lie detection studies are concentrated around a scenario, where roughly half of the assessed people are totally truthful and the other half are liars who present a well prepared cover story, it is proposed that in future studies lie detection and veracity assessment methods are tested against partially truthful human sources. This kind of test setup would highlight new challenges and opportunities for the use of existing and widely studied lie detection methods, as well as for the modern ones that are still under development.

The effects of the global economic crisis in Latin America

The aim of this article is to analyze the current phase of the global crisis and the way it has manifested itself in Latin America. The global crisis is the most important capitalist crisis since World War II. It is a new type of debt-deflation crisis, highlighting the limits of the finance-dominated regime of accumulation and characterized by securitization. Latin American countries have not been immune to the global crisis. Since it sets limits on globalization, the impossibility of maintaining export-driven accumulation sustained by restrictive monetary and fiscal policies becomes clear. This time, there will be no way out in external markets for any country. That fact will force them to restructure productive systems and search for a way out in domestic markets and in regional spaces for integration.

Macroeconomic trouble and policy challenges in the wake of the financial bust

Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, at least in the countries that had been involved in the financial turmoil. Indeed, the collapse of the "state of confidence" and the negative effects of private debts on consumption and investment decisions have fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.

Investment in the Brazilian economy during the crisis

In this short article, it is analyzed as to whether financial flows and credit concessions explain the behavior of investment in the Brazilian economy during the 2008 crisis. Beyond the importance of demand, changes in expectations seem to be an important source of instability in investment and, as a consequence, in the economy.

Narratives of emergence: rising powers and the end of the Third World?

This article examines recent arguments from development economists, from historians and from international relations specialists that do challenge the continued relevance of the idea of the Third World. It then examines five reasons why these arguments are wrong. We can indeed understand much about emerging powers in terms of how they are seeking to navigate and best position themselves within an existing state-centric, liberal and capitalist order whilst accepting many of the underlying assumptions and values of that order. But the nature of that navigation has been shaped by their historical trajectory and by the developmental, societal and geopolitical context of their emergence.

Assessing development and the idea of development in the 1950s in Brazil

The decade of 1950s was a crucial period of the industrialization of the Brazilian economy. The dominant school of thought was the national-developmentalism, which was not restricted to the sphere of economic production but also encompassed political and socio-cultural processes of change. Combining repression, persuasion and paternalism, the national state took a significantly political and economic responsibility in the social, material and symbolic modernization during the Vargas and Kubitschek administrations. However, internal disputes, foreign demands and a long legacy of socio-spatial inequalities prevented the achievement of more socially inclusive goals, leading a legacy of unanswered questions that still have currency today.

Autonomy of the state and development in the democratic capitalism

The paper argues that if the state, as an expression and part of a pact of domination, operates as a corporate actor with relative autonomy, vision and capacity to promote the development, it is a key institution to the economic transformation. Supported in the neo-Marxism, exposes the limits of institutionalist approach of autonomy of the state to explain its origin, but does not rule out this approach. Maintains that the class-balance theory of the state may explain its relative autonomy and at the same time aid in understanding the historical experiences of social-developmentalist state action, particularly in the social democratic regimes and in the current Latin America.

Rethinking "energy nationalism": a study of the relationship between nation states and companies in the oil industry

ABSTRACTThe term "energy nationalism" is frequently used by academic literature and media, but usually without adequate conceptual accuracy. Despite this, a set of papers deepens the discussion on the relationship between nation states and the energy industry, especially the oil sector. These papers allow identifying fundamental elements to understand the energy nationalism, either complementary or divergent between each other. Thus, this study aims at presenting an interpretation of the concept that fills the gaps left by the above mentioned literature based on a global analysis of the oil industry structure and its historical evolution since the mid-19thcentury.

Why budget accountability fails? The elusive links between parliaments and audit agencies in the oversight of the budget

ABSTRACTParliaments and audit agencies have critical and complementary roles in the oversight of the budget and the enforcement of government accountability. Yet, the nexus between parliaments and audit agencies is one of the weakest links in the accountability chain, generating an accountability gap in the budget process. This articles analyses the interactions between parliaments and audit agencies in the oversight of government finances during the latter stages of the budget process. Using proxies to evaluate the quality of those linkages, such as the follow-up to audit findings and the discharge of government, it shows important dysfunctions in the interactions between parliaments and audit agencies due to a combination of technical capacity constraints and political economy disincentives. It suggests that the effective functioning of the system of checks and balances in public budgeting critically hinges on the agility of the linkages between accountability institutions. As such, the failure of budget accountability is due to systemic dysfunctions in the systems of accountability, rather than the failure of an individual accountability institution acting in isolation. In addition, the effectiveness of the horizontal accountability architecture depends on the political economy incentives shaping the budget process, which are generated by the interactions between the choice of institutional design and budget rules, with the degree of political competition and electoral rules.

Kant and zeno of elea: historical precedents of the "sceptical method"

For Kant's interpretation of Zeno in KrV A502-507/B530-535, scholars have usually referred to Plato's Phaedrus (261d); in reality the sources Kant uses are, on one hand, Brucker (who depends in turn on the pseudo-Aristotelian De Melisso, Xenophane, et Gorgia, 977 b 2-21), and, on the other, Plato's Parmenides (135e6-136b1) and Proclus' commentary on it, as quoted by Gassendi in a popular textbook he wrote on the history of logic.

Exploring the experience of the pioneers of change

The world of work with Western society appears to be undergoing a major change. The literature has described this phenomenon as a change from an industrialbased economy to a knowledge-based economy. This change will represent a complete transformation of the world of work; some suggest that everything we have come to accept and know as normal will change. Our present society seems to be in a period of transition. It is a time with many challenges and problems, many of which cannot be solved with thinking patterns from an old industrial-based economy. A fundamental shift in thinking patterns consistent with a new emerging world of work must take place. This change in thinking represents a fundmental shift from traditional and linear ways of seeing the world (worldview), to more holistic ways of seeing the world. In this investigation the word paradigm was used to define how people see their world. A paradigm shift is defined as a change in how a person sees their world: a change from an old to new or different way of viewing the world. Those individuals who are the first to shift their paradigm are called paradigm pioneers. These individuals do not only shift their ways of seeing the world, but they also begin to act and behave in ways consistent with the new paradigm. Thus far the research literature has adequately described the concepts of paradigms and paradigm shifts. However, little is known regarding how people actually and eventually make a shift. As it will be important for each individual to make a personal paradigm shift, then it will be extremely valuable to learn more about the process itself. The purpose of this investigation was to explore these issues in more detail and specifically, describe the experience of paradigm shifts and explore the experience of paradigm pioneers. A qualitative research methodology involving in-depth interviews was used to investigate the experiences of four participants identified as paradigm pioneers. It is interesting to note that the participants in this study did not describe an allencompassing paradigm shift. In fact, each participant, defined a paradigm shift in several different ways. They did relate several examples of paradigm shifts. However, even among these examples, there was a high degree of variability. The findings of this investigation centered upon the participants' experience as pioneers. Each pioneer shared many of the same qualities, the first quality of which described how these pioneers dealt with change. I called this a change-sense quality. The pioneers viewed change in an open and positive manner, and were also aware of change taking place in their world. Finally, they displayed an understanding of change, and a bias to take positive action in the face it. The participants also shared an inner quality. The four pioneers demonstrated a personal purpose and vision, and were selfdirected individuals. They also had an innate curiosity which translated into a love of learning. They also displayed a quality where relationships with others were highly valued. Relationships were important to the pioneers because they played a support role to help them deal with the challenges of being a pioneer. Pioneers also valued relationships because, they relied on others to make change happen. The above mentioned qualities enabled pioneers to be effective in a changing world of work. The findings from this investigation have many implications for research and practice. First, the concept of paradigms and paradigm shifts must be further researched. A great deal more must be learned in order to better understand the kind of shift individuals must make to be effective in the new world of work. Second, the qualities displayed by pioneers are important for all members of the world of work to develop. The qualities shared by pioneers appeared to represent an enduring set of traits that can possibly help individuals deal more positively with uncertainty and rapid change taking place in today's North American world of work.

Strategies for economic development in the Commonwealth Caribbean: a comparative study of the foreign economic policy strategies adopted by the Manley government in Jamaica and the Williams government in Trinidad and Tobago

This thesis compares the foreign economic poUcy dimension of the development strategies adopted by the governments of two Commonwealth caribbean countries: The Hardey government In Jamaica, and the· Williams government in Trlnidad and T ooago, The foreign economic policIes adopted by these governments appeared, on the surface~ to be markedly dissimilar. The Jamakan strategv on the one hand, emphasised self-reliance and national autonomy; and featured the espousal of radical oonaHgnment together with attempts to re-deftne the terms of the Islands externaa economIc relaUoos. The Trinidadian strategy 00 the other hand, featured Uberal externaUy-oriented growth poUctes, and close relatjoos with Western governments and financial institutions. Th1s study attempts to identify the explanatory factors that account for the apparent dlssimUarUy 1n the foreign economic policies of these two govemnents. The study is based on a comparison of how the structural bases of an underdeveloped ecooomYg and the foreign penetration and vulnerabUUy to external pressures asSOCiated wUh dependence, shape and influence foreign economic poUcy strategy. The framework views fore1gn ecooom1c strategy as an adaptive response on the part of the decision makers of a state to the coostralnts and opportunities provided by a particular situation. The · situat i 00' in this case being the events, conditions, structures and processes, associated wUh dependente and underdevelopment. The results indicate that the similarities and dissimHarities in the foreign economic policies of the governments of Jamaica and Trinidad were a reflecUon of the simHarities and dissimilarities in their respective situations. The conclusion derived suggests that If the foreign pol1cy field as an arena of choice, Is indeed one of opportunities and constraints for each and every state, then poHcy makers of smaU, weak, hlghW penetrated and vulnerable states enter thlS arena with constraints outweighing opportunities. This places effective limits 00 their decisional latitude and the range of policy options avaUable. Policy makers thus have to decide critical issues with few estabUshed precedents, in the face of domestic social and political cleavages, as wen as serious foreign pressures. This is a reflection not only of the trappings of dependence, but also of the Umned capabilities arising from the sman size of the state, and the Impact of the resource-gap In an underdeveloped economy. The Trinidadian strategy 1s UlustraUve of a development strategy made viable through a combination of a fortuitous circumstance, a confluence of the interests of influential groups» and accurate perception on the part of poUcy makers. These factors enabled policy makers to minimise some of the constraints of dependence. The faUure of Manlets strategy on the other hand, 15 iHustraUve of the problems involved tn the adoption of poUcles that work against the interest of internal and external political and economic forces. It is also tUustraUve of the consequences of the faUure 00 the part of policy makers to clarify goals, and to reconcile the values of rapid economic growth with increased self-reliance and national autonomy. These values tend to be mutuany Incompatible given the existing patterns of relations in the jnternational economy.

Manufacturing 'authenticity' : a case study of the Niagara wine cluster

In this thesis, I use "Fabricating Authenticity," a model developed in the Production of Culture Perspective, to explore the evolving criteria for judging what constitute "real" and authentic Niagara wines, along with the naturalization of these criteria, as the Canadian Niagara wine cluster has come under increasing stress from globalization. Authenticity has been identified as a hallmark of contemporary marketing and important to cultural industries, which can use it for creating meaningful differentiation; making it a renewable resource for securing consumers, increasing market value; and for relationships with key brokers. This is important as free trade and international treaties are making traditional protective barriers, like trade tariffs and markups, obsolete and as governments increasingly allocate industry support via promotion and marketing policies that are directly linked to objectives of city and regional development, which in turn carry real implications for what gets to be judged authentic and inauthentic local culture. This research uses a mixed methods research strategy, drawing upon ethnographic observation, marketing materials, newspaper reports, and secondary data to provide insight into the processes and conflicts over efforts to fabricate authenticity, comparing the periods before and after the passage of NAFT A to the present period. The Niagara wine cluster is a good case in point because it has little natural advantage nor was there a tradition of quality table wine making to facilitate the naturalization of authenticity. Geographic industrial clusters have been found particularly competitive in the global economy and the exploratory case study contributes to our understanding of the dynamic of '1abricating authenticity," building on various theoretical propositions to attempt to derive explanations of how global processes affect strategies to create "authenticity," how these strategies affect cultural homogeneity and heterogeneity at the local level, and how the concept of "cluster" contributes to the process of managing authenticity.

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.