Selection bias and the cross-validation of regression models for prediction

Strategies are compared for the development of a linear regression model with stochastic (multivariate normal) regressor variables and the subsequent assessment of its predictive ability. Bias and mean squared error of four estimators of predictive performance are evaluated in simulated samples of 32 population correlation matrices. Models including all of the available predictors are compared with those obtained using selected subsets. The subset selection procedures investigated include two stopping rules, C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$, each combined with an 'all possible subsets' or 'forward selection' of variables. The estimators of performance utilized include parametric (MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$) and non-parametric (PRESS) assessments in the entire sample, and two data splitting estimates restricted to a random or balanced (Snee's DUPLEX) 'validation' half sample. The simulations were performed as a designed experiment, with population correlation matrices representing a broad range of data structures.^ The techniques examined for subset selection do not generally result in improved predictions relative to the full model. Approaches using 'forward selection' result in slightly smaller prediction errors and less biased estimators of predictive accuracy than 'all possible subsets' approaches but no differences are detected between the performances of C$\sb{\rm p}$ and S$\sb{\rm p}$. In every case, prediction errors of models obtained by subset selection in either of the half splits exceed those obtained using all predictors and the entire sample.^ Only the random split estimator is conditionally (on $\\beta$) unbiased, however MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ is unbiased on average and PRESS is nearly so in unselected (fixed form) models. When subset selection techniques are used, MSEP$\sb{\rm m}$ and PRESS always underestimate prediction errors, by as much as 27 percent (on average) in small samples. Despite their bias, the mean squared errors (MSE) of these estimators are at least 30 percent less than that of the unbiased random split estimator. The DUPLEX split estimator suffers from large MSE as well as bias, and seems of little value within the context of stochastic regressor variables.^ To maximize predictive accuracy while retaining a reliable estimate of that accuracy, it is recommended that the entire sample be used for model development, and a leave-one-out statistic (e.g. PRESS) be used for assessment. ^

Assessment of occupational exposures to organic chemicals in a plastics manufacturing facility

The objective of this dissertation was to design and implement strategies for assessment of exposures to organic chemicals used in the production of a styrene-butadiene polymer at the Texas Plastics Company (TPC). Linear statistical retrospective exposure models, univariate and multivariate, were developed based on the validation of historical industrial hygiene monitoring data collected by industrial hygienists at TPC, and additional current industrial hygiene monitoring data collected for the purposes of this study. The current monitoring data served several purposes. First, it provided information on current exposure data, in the form of unbiased estimates of mean exposure to organic chemicals for each job title included. Second, it provided information on homogeneity of exposure within each job title, through the use of a carefully designed sampling scheme which addressed variability of exposure both between and within job titles. Third, it permitted the investigation of how well current exposure data can serve as an evaluation tool for retrospective exposure estimation. Finally, this dissertation investigated the simultaneous evaluation of exposure to several chemicals, as well as the use of values below detection limits in a multivariate linear statistical model of exposures. ^

Improving adherence in African American women with uncontrolled primary hypertension

Background and Objectives: African American (AA) women are disproportionately affected with hypertension (HTN). The aim of this randomized controlled trial was to evaluate the effectiveness of a 6-week culturally-tailored educational intervention for AA women with primary HTN who lived in rural Northeast Texas. ^ Methods: Sixty AA women, 29 to 86 years (M 57.98 ±12.37) with primary HTN were recruited from four rural locations and randomized to intervention (n =30) and wait-list control groups ( n =30) to determine the effectiveness of the intervention on knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, social support, adherence to a hypertension regimen, and blood pressure (BP) control. Survey and BP measurements were collected at baseline, 3 weeks, 6 weeks (post intervention) and 6 months post intervention. Culturally-tailored educational classes were provided for 90 minutes once a week for 6 weeks in two local churches and a community center. The wait-list control group received usual care and were offered education at the conclusion of the data collection six months post-intervention. Linear mixed models were used to test for differences between the groups. ^ Results: A significant overall main effect (Time) was found for systolic blood pressure, F(3, 174) =11.104, p=.000, and diastolic blood pressure. F(3, 174) =4.781, p=.003 for both groups. Age was a significant covariate for diastolic blood pressure. F(1, 56) =6.798 p=.012. Participants 57 years or older (n=30) had lower diastolic BPS than participants younger than 57 (n=30). No significant differences were found between groups on knowledge, adherence, or attitudes. Participants with lower incomes had significantly less knowledge about HBP Prevention (r=.036, p=.006). ^ Conclusion: AA women who participated in a 6 week intervention program demonstrated a significant decrease in BP over a 6 month period regardless of whether they were in the intervention or control group. These rural AA women had a relatively good knowledge of HTN and reported an average level of compliance, compared to other populations. Satisfaction with the program was high and there was no attrition, suggesting that AA women will participate in research studies that are culturally tailored to them, held in familiar community locations, and conducted by a trusted person with whom they can identify. Future studies using a different program with larger sample sizes are warranted to try to decrease the high level of HTN-related complications in AA women. ^

Anal warts and their predictors among HIV-infected women

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a necessary cause of cervical cancer and is also strongly associated with anal cancer. While different factors such as CD4+ cell count, HIV RNA viral load, smoking status, and cytological screening results have been identified as risk factors for the infection of HPV high-risk types and associated cancers, much less is known about the association between those risk factors and the infection of HPV low-risk types and anogential warts. In this dissertation, a public dataset (release P09) obtained from the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) was used to examine the effects of those risk factors on the size of the largest anal warts in HIV-infected women in the United States. Linear mixed modeling was used to address this research question. ^ The prevalence of anal warts at baseline for WIHS participants was higher than other populations. Incidence of anal warts in HIV-infected women was significantly higher than that of HIV-uninfected women [4.15 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: 3.83–4.77) vs. 1.30 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: 1.00–1.58), respectively]. There appeared to be an inverse association between the size of the largest anal wart and CD4+ cell count at baseline visit, however it was not statistically significant. There was no association between size of the largest anal wart and CD4+ cell count or HIV RNA viral load over time among HIV-infected women. There was also no association between the size of the largest anal wart and current smoking over time in HIV-infected women, even though smokers had larger warts at baseline than non-smokers. Finally, even though a woman with Pap smear results of ASCUS/LGSIL was found to have an anal wart larger than a woman with normal cervical Pap smear results the relationship between the size of the largest anal wart with cervical Pap smear results over time remains unclear. ^ Although the associations between these risk factors and the size of the largest anal wart over time in HIV-infected women could not be firmly established, this dissertation poses several questions concerning anal wart development for further exploration: (1) the role of immune function (i.e., CD4+ cell count), (2) the role of smoking status and the interaction between smoking status with other risk factors (e.g., CD4+ cell count or HIV RNA viral load), (3) the molecular mechanism of smoking on anal warts over time, (4) the potential for development of a screening program using anal Pap smear in HIV-infected women, and (5) how cost-effective and efficacious would an anal Pap smear screening program be in this high-risk population. ^

Assessing how middle school students' nutrient intake varies based on the availability of a la carte offerings at lunch

Purpose: School districts in the U.S. regularly offer foods that compete with the USDA reimbursable meal, known as `a la carte' foods. These foods must adhere to state nutritional regulations; however, the implementation of these regulations often differs across districts. The purpose of this study is to compare two methods of offering a la carte foods on student's lunch intake: 1) an extensive a la carte program in which schools have a separate area for a la carte food sales, that includes non-reimbursable entrees; and 2) a moderate a la carte program, which offers the sale of a la carte foods on the same serving line with reimbursable meals. ^ Methods: Direct observation was used to assess children's lunch consumption in six schools, across two districts in Central Texas (n=373 observations). Schools were matched on socioeconomic status. Data collectors were randomly assigned to students, and recorded foods obtained, foods consumed, source of food, gender, grade, and ethnicity. Observations were entered into a nutrient database program, FIAS Millennium Edition, to obtain nutritional information. Differences in energy and nutrient intake across lunch sources and districts were assessed using ANOVA and independent t-tests. A linear regression model was applied to control for potential confounders. ^ Results: Students at schools with extensive a la carte programs consumed significantly more calories, carbohydrates, total fat, saturated fat, calcium, and sodium compared to students in schools with moderate a la carte offerings (p<.05). Students in the extensive a la carte program consumed approximately 94 calories more than students in the moderate a la carte program. There was no significant difference in the energy consumption in students who consumed any amount of a la carte compared to students who consumed none. In both districts, students who consumed a la carte offerings were more likely to consume sugar-sweetened beverages, sweets, chips, and pizza compared to students who consumed no a la carte foods. ^ Conclusion: The amount, type and method of offering a la carte foods can significantly affect student dietary intake. This pilot study indicates that when a la carte foods are more available, students consume more calories. Findings underscore the need for further investigation on how availability of a la carte foods affects children's diets. Guidelines for school a la carte offerings should be maximized to encourage the consumption of healthful foods and appropriate energy intake.^

Genetic diversity among alfalfa genotypes (Medicago sativa L.) of non-dormant cultivars using SSR markers and agronomic traits

The aim of this study was to assess genetic diversity among 40 alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) genotypes of different non-dormant (FD=8) cultivars. Biomass yield, regrowth speed and reaction to spring black stem, lepto leaf spot, and rust were evaluated. Analyses of variances were performed using a mixed model to examine the agronomic variation among individuals. A principal component analysis on standardized agronomic data was performed. Agronomic data were also used to calculate Gower's distance and UPGMA algorithm. For the molecular analysis, six SSR markers were evaluated and 84 alleles were identified. The genetic distance was estimated using standard Nei's distance. Average standard genetic diversity was 0.843, indicating a high degree of variability among genotypes. Finally, a generalized procrustes analysis was performed to calculate the correlation between molecular and agronomic distance, indicating a 65.4% of consensus. This value is likely related to the low number of individuals included in the study, which might have underestimated the real phenotypic variability among genotypes. Despite the low number of individuals and SSR markers analyzed, this study provides a baseline for future diversity studies to identify genetically distant alfalfa individuals or cultivars.

Proglacial river dataset from the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River northern tributary, Southwest Greenland, 2008 - 2013, version 2.0

The dataset contains measurements of river stage and discharge for one sites along the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River's northern tributary, with 30 minute temporal resolution between June 2008 and August 2013 This river is a tributary to the Watson River discharging into Kangerlussuaq Fjord by the town of Kangerlussuaq, Southwest Greenland. Additional data of water temperature, air pressure are also provided. Compared to version 1.0 of the dataset, this dataset used a total of 36 in situ discharge observations collected between 2008 and 2012 to construct the rating curve. Furthermore, data of Station AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 have been removed from version 2.0 because these values were likely caused by backflow when a jokulhlaup from a large glacier dammed lake caused increased water levels in the downstreams lake. Thus, data measured at AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 are not representative for the AK-004 catchment.

Dive depth and dive duration data of male southern elephant seals from Marion Island between 2004 and 2008 with links to datasets

We describe the habitat use of 22 male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) satellite tagged at Marion Island between 2004 and 2008. While a few areas of increased utilization appeared to be associated with areas of shallower bathymetry (such as sea-floor ridges and fracture zones), seals in our study did not target other areas of shallow bathymetry within close proximity to Marion Island. Rather, most elephant seals foraged pelagically over very deep water where much variation was evident in diel vertical migration strategies. These strategies resulted in generally deeper and longer dives than what has been reported for male elephant seals from other colonies. No significant differences were recorded for dive durations or dive depths between adults and sub-adults. However, younger animals displayed a positive relationship between dive durations and age, as well as between dive depths and age, while these relationships became negative for older animals. Mixed model outputs suggested that seals increased their aerobic fitness as migrations progressed, enabling them to undertake longer dives. We conclude that Marion Island male elephant seals exhibit much variability in dive strategy and are seemingly capable of exploiting a range of different prey types occurring in various depth layers.

At surface behaviour, dive depth and dive duration and associated hydrographic data of adult male southern elephant seals from King George Island from expedition JUB2010 with links to datasets

Understanding the distribution and foraging ecology of major consumers within pelagic systems, specifically in relation to physical parameters, can be important for the management of bentho-pelagic systems undergoing rapid change associated with global climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing (i.e., the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea). We tracked 11 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), during their five-month post-moult foraging migrations from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), northern Antarctic Peninsula, using tags capable of recording and transmitting behavioural data and in situ temperature and salinity data. Seals foraged mostly within the Weddell-Scotia Confluence, while a few foraged along the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf of the Bellingshausen Sea. Mixed model outputs suggest that the at-sea behaviour of seals was associated with a number of environmental parameters, especially seafloor depth, sea-ice concentrations and the temperature structure of the water column. Seals increased dive bottom times and travelled at slower speeds in shallower areas and areas with increased sea-ice concentrations. Changes in dive depth and durations, as well as relative amount of time spent during the bottom phases of dives, were observed in relation to differences in overall temperature gradient, likely as a response to vertical changes in prey distribution associated with temperature stratification in the water column. Our results illustrate the likely complex influences of bathymetry, hydrography and sea ice on the behaviour of male southern elephant seals in a changing environment and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to studying environmental influences on behaviour.

Lead and strontium isotope composition, mass accumulation rates and rare earth elements of selected samples from DSDP Sites 92-597 to 92-601

Most of the Pb isotope data for the Leg 92 metalliferous sediments (carbonate-free fraction) form approximately linear arrays in the conventional isotopic plots, extending from the middle of the field for mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) toward the field for Mn nodules. These arrays are directed closely to the average values of Mn nodules, the composition of which reflects the Pb isotope composition of seawater (Reynolds and Dasch, 1971). Since the Leg 92 samples are almost devoid of continentally derived detritus, it can be inferred that the more radiogenic end-member is seawater. The less radiogenic end-member lies in the very middle of the MORB field, and hence can be considered to reflect the Pb isotope composition of typical ocean-ridge basalt. The array of data lying between these two end-members is most readily interpreted in terms of simple linear mixing of Pb from the two different end-member sources. According to this model, eight samples from Sites 599 to 601 contain 50 to 100% basaltic Pb. Five of these samples have compositions that are identical within the uncertainty of the analyses. We use the average of these five values to define our unradiogenic end-member in the linear mixing model. The ratios used for this average are 206Pb/204Pb = 18.425 ± 0.010; 207Pb/204Pb = 15.495 ± 0.018; 208Pb/204Pb = 37.879 ± 0.068. These values should approximate the average Pb isotope composition of discharging hydrothermal solutions, and therefore also that of the basaltic crust, over the period of time represented by these samples ( 4 m.y., from 4 to 8 Ma). Sr isotope ratios show a significant range of values, from 0.7082 to 0.7091. The lower ratios are well outside the value of 0.70910 ± 6 for modern-day seawater (Burke et al., 1982). However, most values correspond very closely to the curve of 87Sr/86Sr versus age for seawater, with older samples having progressively lower 87Sr/86Sr ratios. The simplest explanation for this progressive reduction is that recrystallization of the abundant biogenic carbonate in the sediments released older seawater Sr which was incorporated into ferromanganiferous phases during diagenesis. Leg 92 metalliferous sediments have total rare earth element (REE) contents that range on a carbonate-free basis from 131 to 301 ppm, with a clustering between 167 and 222 ppm. The patterns have strong negative Ce anomalies. Samples from Sites 599 to 601 display a slight but distinct enrichment in the heavy REE relative to the light REE, whereas those from Sites 597 to 598 show almost no heavy REE enrichment. The former patterns (those for Sites 599 to 601) are interpreted as indicating moderate diagenetic alteration of metalliferous sediments originating at the EPR axis; the latter reflect more complete diagenetic modification.

Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

Torque control of switched reluctance motors

This paper presents the performance of an instantaneous torque control method. The simulation and experimental results illustrate the capability of Switched Reluctance Motors (SRM) being used in the motor drive industry. Based on experimental data, the advantages of this control method and its disadvantages in practical implementation were studied. The model used in the simulation is the linear magnetic model which has the 12/8 structure, the same structure as the experimental switched reluctance motor.

Flutter margin with non-linearities: real-time prediction of flutter onset speed

The present article shows a procedure to predict the flutter speed based on real-time tuning of a quasi non-linear aeroelastic model. A two-dimensional non-linear (freeplay) aeroeslastic model is implemented inMatLab/Simulink with incompressible aerodynamic conditions. A comparison with real compressible conditions is provided. Once the numerical validation is accomplished, a parametric aeroelastic model is built in order to describe the proposed procedure and contribute to reduce the number of flight hours needed to expand the flutter envelope.

Noninvasive monitoring of serial changes in pulmonary vascular resistance and acute vasodilator testing using cardiac magnetic resonance

Objectives The study sought to evaluate the ability of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) to monitor acute and long-term changes in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) noninvasively. Background PVR monitoring during the follow-up of patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) and the response to vasodilator testing require invasive right heart catheterization. Methods An experimental study in pigs was designed to evaluate the ability of CMR to monitor: 1) an acute increase in PVR generated by acute pulmonary embolization (n = 10); 2) serial changes in PVR in chronic PH (n = 22); and 3) changes in PVR during vasodilator testing in chronic PH (n = 10). CMR studies were performed with simultaneous hemodynamic assessment using a CMR-compatible Swan-Ganz catheter. Average flow velocity in the main pulmonary artery (PA) was quantified with phase contrast imaging. Pearson correlation and mixed model analysis were used to correlate changes in PVR with changes in CMR-quantified PA velocity. Additionally, PVR was estimated from CMR data (PA velocity and right ventricular ejection fraction) using a formula previously validated. Results Changes in PA velocity strongly and inversely correlated with acute increases in PVR induced by pulmonary embolization (r = –0.92), serial PVR fluctuations in chronic PH (r = –0.89), and acute reductions during vasodilator testing (r = –0.89, p ≤ 0.01 for all). CMR-estimated PVR showed adequate agreement with invasive PVR (mean bias –1.1 Wood units,; 95% confidence interval: –5.9 to 3.7) and changes in both indices correlated strongly (r = 0.86, p < 0.01). Conclusions CMR allows for noninvasive monitoring of acute and chronic changes in PVR in PH. This capability may be valuable in the evaluation and follow-up of patients with PH.

Tree and grazing influence on herbaceous pasture diversity in the Dehesa agroforestry system

Mediterranean Dehesas are one of the European natural habitat types of Community interest (43/92/EEC Directive), associated to high diversity levels and producer of important goods and services. In this work, tree contribution and grazing influence over pasture alpha diversity in a Dehesa in Central Spain was studied. We analyzed Richness and Shannon-Wiener (SW) indexes on herbaceous layer under 16 holms oak trees (64 sampling units distributed in two directions and in two distances to the trunk) distributed in four different grazing management zones (depending on species and stocking rate). Floristic composition by species or morphospecies and species abundance were analyzed for each sample unit. Linear mixed models (LMM) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to study relationships between alpha diversity measures and independent factors. Edge crown influence showed the highest values of Richness and SW index. No significant differences were found between orientations under tree crown influence. Grazing management had a significant effect over Richness and SW measures, specially the grazing species (cattle or sheep). We preliminary quantify and analyze the interaction of tree stratum and grazing management over herbaceous diversity in a year of extreme climatic conditions.