A conceptual decision-making framework for the delivery of innovative change in organisations

Research found that today’s organisations are increasingly aware of the potential barriers and perceived challenges associated with the successful delivery of change — including cultural and sub-cultural indifferences; financial constraints; restricted timelines; insufficient senior management support; fragmented key stakeholder commitment; and inadequate training. The delivery and application of Innovative Change (see glossary) within a construction industry organisation tends to require a certain level of ‘readiness’. This readiness is the combination of an organisation’s ability to part from undertakings that may be old, traditional, or inefficient; and then being able to readily adopt a procedure or initiative which is new, improved, or more efficient. Despite the construction industry’s awareness of the various threats and opportunities associated with the delivery of change, research found little attention is currently given to develop a ‘decision-making framework’ that comprises measurable elements (dynamics) that may assist in more accurately determining an organisation’s level of readiness or ability to deliver innovative change. To resolve this, an initial Background Literature Review in 2004 identified six such dynamics, those of Change, Innovation, Implementation, Culture, Leadership, and Training and Education, which were then hypothesised to be key components of a ‘Conceptual Decision-making Framework’ (CDF) for delivering innovative change within an organisation. To support this hypothesis, a second (more extensive) Literature Review was undertaken from late 2007 to mid 2009. A Delphi study was embarked on in June 2008, inviting fifteen building and construction industry members to form a panel and take part in a Delphi study. The selection criterion required panel members to have senior positions (manager and above) within a recognised field or occupation, and to have experience, understanding and / or knowledge in the process of delivering change within organisations. The final panel comprised nine representatives from private and public industry organisations and tertiary / research and development (R&D) universities. The Delphi study developed, distributed and collated two rounds of survey questionnaires over a four-month period, comprising open-ended and closed questions (referred to as factors). The first round of Delphi survey questionnaires were distributed to the panel in August 2008, asking them to rate the relevancy of the six hypothesised dynamics. In early September 2008, round-one responses were returned, analysed and documented. From this, an additional three dynamics were identified and confirmed by the panel as being highly relevant during the decision-making process when delivering innovative change within an organisation. The additional dynamics (‘Knowledge-sharing and Management’; ‘Business Process Requirements’; and ‘Life-cycle Costs’) were then added to the first six dynamics and used to populate the second (final) Delphi survey questionnaire. This was distributed to the same nine panel members in October 2008, this time asking them to rate the relevancy of all nine dynamics. In November 2008, round-two responses were returned, analysed, summarised and documented. Final results confirmed stability in responses and met Delphi study guidelines. The final contribution is twofold. Firstly, findings confirm all nine dynamics as key components of the proposed CDF for delivering innovative change within an organisation. Secondly, the future development and testing of an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Process’ (ICDP) is proposed, one that is underpinned by an ‘Innovative Change Decision-making Framework’ (ICDF), an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Analysis’ (ICDA) program, and an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Guide’ (ICDG).

Preparing for coastal change

Coastal areas are dynamic environments that are home to billions of people worldwide and provide areas of unique natural importance. As such, coastal change is of considerable local and global interest, not only within the geological realm, but also in terms of socioeconomic and biodiversity impacts. An accurate understanding of how changes in relative sea level, geological processes and extreme events, such as storms and tsunamis, have interacted to shape and change the Earth’s coastlines over millennia is fundamental to future projections of coastal change. On the basis of this, researchers in these, and various other aspects of coastal change were brought together in late 2010 at the University of Hong Kong for the first meeting of International Geoscience Program Project 588 (IGCP588) e Preparing for Coastal Change. This special issue showcases some of the results presented at this meeting.

Pulling apart the mid to late Cenozoic magmatic record of the Gulf of California : no room for the Comondú Arc

Understanding the link between tectonic-driven extensional faulting and volcanism is crucial from a hazard perspective in active volcanic environments, while ancient volcanic successions provide records on how volcanic eruption styles, compositions, magnitudes and frequencies can change in response to extension timing, distribution and intensity. Significantly, incorrect tectonic interpretations can be made when the spatial-temporal-compositional trends of, and source contributions to magmatism are not properly considered. This study draws on intimate relationships of volcanism and extension preserved in the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) and Gulf of California (GoC) regions of western Mexico. Here, a major Oligocene rhyolitic ignimbrite “flare-up” (>300,000 km3) switched to a dominantly bimodal and mixed effusive-explosive volcanic phase in the Early Miocene (~100,000 km3), associated with distributed extension and opening of numerous grabens. Rhyolitic dome fields were emplaced along graben edges and at intersections of cross-graben and graben-parallel structures during early stages of graben development. Concomitant with this change in rhyolite eruption style was a change in crustal source as revealed by zircon chronochemistry with rapid rates of rhyolite magma generation due to remelting of mid- to upper crustal, highly differentiated igneous rocks emplaced during earlier SMO magmatism. Extension became more focused ~18 Ma resulting in volcanic activity being localised along the site of GoC opening. This localised volcanism (known as the Comondú “arc”) was dominantly effusive and andesite-dacite in composition. This compositional change resulted from increased mixing of basaltic and rhyolitic magmas rather than fluid flux melting of the mantle wedge above the subducting Guadalupe Plate. A poor understanding of space-time relationships of volcanism and extension has thus led to incorrect past tectonic interpretations of Comondú-age volcanism.

New labour and the environment : too little too late.

New Labour and the environment: too little too late – symbolic success but real failure Achievements: Introduction of the Climate Change Act 2008, Low Carbon Transition Plan, the creation of the Department of Energy and Climate Change, establishment of several ‘green’ quangos and Green Investment Bank, Warm Front Scheme, international leadership on Kyoto and the European Directive for Landfill and Renewable Energy. Disappointments: Increased green house gas emissions that failto meet domestic UK targets, let alone Kyoto; significant increasesin energy and transport emissions; EU air pollution violations; failure to regulate the importation of illegally logged timber and wildlife; increase in chemical agriculture; unwillingness to tackle corporate environmental crime; road expansions and runway projects at the expense of low emission alternative public transport. Biggest broken promises: Global warming, low carbon transport; protection of biodiversity.

Climate variability over the last 35,000 years recorded in marine and terrestrial archives in the Australian region : an OZ-INTIMATE compilation

The Australian region spans some 60° of latitude and 50° of longitude and displays considerable regional climate variability both today and during the Late Quaternary. A synthesis of marine and terrestrial climate records, combining findings from the Southern Ocean, temperate, tropical and arid zones, identifies a complex response of climate proxies to a background of changing boundary conditions over the last 35,000 years. Climate drivers include the seasonal timing of insolation, greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, sea level rise and ocean and atmospheric circulation changes. Our compilation finds few climatic events that could be used to construct a climate event stratigraphy for the entire region, limiting the usefulness of this approach. Instead we have taken a spatial approach, looking to discern the patterns of change across the continent. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region.

Controls on mid-Holocene fringing reef growth and termination in a high latitude, estuarine setting, Wellington Point, Southeast Queensland

Several fringing coral reefs in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, some 300 km south of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), are set in a relatively high latitude, estuarine environment that is considered marginal for coral growth. Previous work indicated that these marginal reefs, as with many fringing reefs of the inner GBR, ceased accreting in the mid-Holocene. This research presents for the first time data from the subsurface profile of the mid-Holocene fossil reef at Wellington Point comprising U/Th dates of in situ and framework corals, and trace element analysis from the age constrained carbonate fragments. Based on trace element proxies the palaeo-water quality during reef accretion was reconstructed. Results demonstrate that the reef initiated more than 7,000 yr BP during the post glacial transgression, and the initiation progressed to the west as sea level rose. In situ micro-atolls indicate that sea level was at least 1 m above present mean sea level by 6,680 years ago. The reef remained in "catch-up" mode, with a seaward sloping upper surface, until it stopped aggrading abruptly at ca 6,000 yr BP; no lateral progradation occurred. Changes in sediment composition encountered in the cores suggest that after the laterite substrate was covered by the reef, most of the sediment was produced by the carbonate factory with minimal terrigenous influence. Rare earth element, Y and Ba proxies indicate that water quality during reef accretion was similar to oceanic waters, considered suitable for coral growth. A slight decline in water quality on the basis of increased Ba in the later stages of growth may be related to increased riverine input and partial closing up of the bay due to either tidal delta progradation, climatic change and/or slight sea level fall. The age data suggest that termination of reef growth coincided with a slight lowering of sea level, activation of ENSO and consequent increase in seasonality, lowering of temperatures and the constrictions to oceanic flushing. At the cessation of reef accretion the environmental conditions in the western Moreton Bay were changing from open marine to estuarine. The living coral community appears to be similar to the fossil community, but without the branching Acropora spp. that were more common in the fossil reef. In this marginal setting coral growth periods do not always correspond to periods of reef accretion due to insufficient coral abundance. Due to several environmental constraints modern coral growth is insufficient for reef growth. Based on these findings Moreton Bay may be unsuitable as a long term coral refuge for most species currently living in the GBR.

Thorough assessment of DNA preservation from fossil bone and sediments excavated from a late Pleistocene–Holocene cave deposit on Kangaroo Island, South Australia

Fossils and sediments preserved in caves are an excellent source of information for investigating impacts of past environmental changes on biodiversity. Until recently studies have relied on morphology-based palaeontological approaches, but recent advances in molecular analytical methods offer excellent potential for extracting a greater array of biological information from these sites. This study presents a thorough assessment of DNA preservation from late Pleistocene–Holocene vertebrate fossils and sediments from Kelly Hill Cave Kangaroo Island, South Australia. Using a combination of extraction techniques and sequencing technologies, ancient DNA was characterised from over 70 bones and 20 sediment samples from 15 stratigraphic layers ranging in age from >20 ka to ∼6.8 ka. A combination of primers targeting marsupial and placental mammals, reptiles and two universal plant primers were used to reveal genetic biodiversity for comparison with the mainland and with the morphological fossil record for Kelly Hill Cave. We demonstrate that Kelly Hill Cave has excellent long-term DNA preservation, back to at least 20 ka. This contrasts with the majority of Australian cave sites thus far explored for ancient DNA preservation, and highlights the great promise Kangaroo Island caves hold for yielding the hitherto-elusive DNA of extinct Australian Pleistocene species.

Mid-Holocene sea-level and coral reef demise : U-Th dating of subfossil corals in Moreton Bay, Australia

It is increasingly apparent that sea-level data (e.g. microfossil transfer functions, dated coral microatolls and direct observations from satellite and tidal gauges) vary temporally and spatially at regional to local scales, thus limiting our ability to model future sea-level rise for many regions. Understanding sealevel response at ‘far-field’ locations at regional scales is fundamental for formulating more relevant sea-level rise susceptibility models within these regions under future global change projections. Fossil corals and reefs in particular are valuable tools for reconstructing past sea levels and possible environmental phase shifts beyond the temporal constraints of instrumental records. This study used abundant surface geochronological data based on in situ subfossil corals and precise elevation surveys to determine previous sea level in Moreton Bay, eastern Australia, a far-field site. A total of 64 U-Th dates show that relative sea level was at least 1.1 m above modern lowest astronomical tide (LAT) from at least ˜6600 cal. yr BP. Furthermore, a rapid synchronous demise in coral reef growth occurred in Moreton Bay ˜5800 cal. yr BP, coinciding with reported reef hiatus periods in other areas around the Indo-Pacific region. Evaluating past reef growth patterns and phases allows for a better interpretation of anthropogenic forcing versus natural environmental/climatic cycles that effect reef formation and demise at all scales and may allow better prediction of reef response to future global change.

The culture wars of climate change

Of late, there has been a growth in cultural expression about climate change – with the rise of climate fiction (‘cli-fi’); art and photography responding to changes in nature; musical anthems about climate change; plays and dramas about climate change; and environmental documentaries, and climate cinema. Drawing comparisons to past controversies over cultural funding, this paper considers the cultural wars over climate change. This article considers a number of cultural fields. Margaret Atwood made an important creative and critical contribution to the debate over climate change. The work examines Ian McEwan's novel, Solar, a tragi-comedy about authorship, invention, intellectual property, and climate science. After writing a history of Merchants of Doubt, Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway have experimented with fiction – as well as history. This article focuses upon artistic works about climate change. It analyses James Balog’s work with the Extreme Ice Survey, which involved photography of glaciers under retreat in a warming world. The work was turned into a documentary called Chasing Ice. It also considers the artistic project of 350.org 'to transform the human rights and environmental issues connected to climate change into powerful art that gets people to stop, think and act.' The paper examines musical storytelling in respect of climate change. The paper explores dramatic works about climate change including Steve Waters' The Contingency Plan, Stephen Emmott's Ten Billion, and Andrew Bovell's When the Rain Stops Falling and Hannie Rayson’s Extinction. The paper also examines the role of documentary film-making. It also considers the cinematographic film, Beasts of the Southern Wild. Such a survey will enable a consideration of the larger question of whether creative art about climate change matters; and whether it is deserving of public funding.

SecB binds only to a late native-like intermediate in the folding pathway of barstar and not to the unfolded state

SecB is a cytosolic, tetrameric chaperone of Escherichia coli which maintains precursor proteins in a translocation competent state. We have investigated the effect of SecB on the refolding kinetics of the small protein barstar in I M guanidine hydrochloride at pH 7.0 and 25 degrees C using fluorescence spectroscopy. We show that SecB does not bind either the native or the unfolded states of barstar but binds to a late near-native intermediate along the folding pathway. For barstar, polypeptide collapse and formation of a hydrophobic surface are required for binding to SecB. SecB does not change the apparent rate constant of barstar refolding. The kinetic data for SecB binding to barstar are not consistent with simple kinetic partitioning models.

Processing of Stimulus Repetition and Change in the Somatosensory System: Recordings of Electrical and Magnetic Brain Responses

In the present work, effects of stimulus repetition and change in a continuous stimulus stream on the processing of somatosensory information in the human brain were studied. Human scalp-recorded somatosensory event-related potentials (ERPs) and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) responses rapidly diminished with stimulus repetition when mechanical or electric stimuli were applied to fingers. On the contrary, when the ERPs and multi-unit a ctivity (MUA) were directly recorded from the primary (SI) and secondary (SII) somatosensory cortices in a monkey, there was no marked decrement in the somatosensory responses as a function of stimulus repetition. These results suggest that this rate effect is not due to the response diminution in the SI and SII cortices. Obviously the responses to the first stimulus after a long "silent" period are nhanced due to unspecific initial orientation, originating in more broadly distributed and/or deeper neural structures, perhaps in the prefrontal cortices. With fast repetition rates not only the late unspecific but also some early specific somatosensory ERPs were diminished in amplitude. The fast decrease of the ERPs as a function of stimulus repetition is mainly due to the disappearance of the orientation effect and with faster repetition rates additively due to stimulus specific refractoriness. A sudden infrequent change in the continuous stimulus stream also enhanced somatosensory MEG responses to electric stimuli applied to different fingers. These responses were quite similar to those elicited by the deviant stimuli alone when the frequent standard stimuli were omitted. This enhancement was obviously due to the release from refractoriness because the neural structures generating the responses to the infrequent deviants had more time to recover from the refractoriness than the respective structures for the standards. Infrequent deviant mechanical stimuli among frequent standard stimuli also enhanced somatosensory ERPs and, in addition, they elicited a new negative wave which did not occur in the deviants-alone condition. This extra negativity could be recorded to deviations in the stimulation site and in the frequency of the vibratory stimuli. This response is probably a somatosensory analogue of the auditory mismatch negativity (MMN) which has been suggested to reflect a neural mismatch process between the sensory input and the sensory memory trace.

Using a process-based model, ParopSys, to predict the impact of climate change on the eucalypt plantation pest Paropsis atomaria.

The eucalypt leaf beetle, Paropsis atomaria Olivier, is an increasingly important pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical eastern Australia. A process-based model, ParopSys, was developed using DYMEXTM and was found to accurately predict the beetle populations. Climate change scenarios within the latest Australian climate model forecast range were run in ParopSys at three locations to predict changes in beetle performance. Relative population peaks of early generations did not change but shifted to earlier in the season. Temperature increases of 1.0 to 1.5 ºC or greater predicted an extra generation of adults at Gympie and Canberra, but not for Lowmead, where increased populations of late season adults were observed under all scenarios. Furthermore, an additional generation of late-larval stages was predicted at temperature increases of greater than 1.0 ºC at Lowmead. Management strategies to address these changes are discussed, as are requirements to improve the predictive capacity of the model.

Educators of change

Child care is a topic at the forefront of much discussion. From politicians to internet commentators, seemingly everyone has an opinion on child care in Australia at the moment. This media of late should have been an excellent opportunity to share information with parents and the wider community on the advances made in the early childhood profession through the National Quality Framework. It should have provided us with a strong platform to highlight the pedagogy and practice of educators choosing a career in early childhood...

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

An approach to palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto (sea) area during the early Holocene

Olkiluoto Island is situated in the northern Baltic Sea, near the southwestern coast of Finland, and is the proposed location of a spent nuclear fuel repository. This study examined Holocene palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto area and in the surrounding sea areas by computer simulations together with acoustic-seismic, sedimentological and dating methods. The most abundant rock type on the island is migmatic mica gneiss, intruded by tonalites, granodiorites and granites. The surrounding Baltic Sea seabed consists of Palaeoproterozoic crystalline bedrock, which is to a great extent covered by younger Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks. The area contains several ancient deep-seated fracture zones that divide it into bedrock blocks. The response of bedrock at the Olkiluoto site was modelled considering four future ice-age scenarios. Each scenario produced shear displacements of fractures with different times of occurrence and varying recovery rates. Generally, the larger the maximum ice load, the larger were the permanent shear displacements. For a basic case, the maximum shear displacements were a few centimetres at the proposed nuclear waste repository level, at proximately 500 m b.s.l. High-resolution, low-frequency echo-sounding was used to examine the Holocene submarine sedimentary structures and possible direct and indirect indicators of palaeoseismic activity in the northern Baltic Sea. Echo-sounding profiles of Holocene submarine sediments revealed slides and slumps, normal faults, debris flows and turbidite-type structures. The profiles also showed pockmarks and other structures related to gas or groundwater seepages, which might be related to fracture zone activation. Evidence of postglacial reactivation in the study area was derived from the spatial occurrence of some of the structures, especial the faults and the seepages, in the vicinity of some old bedrock fracture zones. Palaeoseismic event(s) (a single or several events) in the Olkiluoto area were dated and the palaeoenvironment was characterized using palaeomagnetic, biostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical methods, enhancing the reliability of the chronology. Combined lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy and palaeomagnetic stratigraphy revealed an age estimation of 10 650 to 10 200 cal. years BP for the palaeoseismic event(s). All Holocene sediment faults in the northern Baltic Sea occur at the same stratigraphical level, the age of which is estimated at 10 700 cal. years BP (9500 radiocarbon years BP). Their movement is suggested to have been triggered by palaeoseismic event(s) when the Late Weichselian ice sheet was retreating from the site and bedrock stresses were released along the bedrock fracture zones. Since no younger or repeated traces of seismic events were found, it corroborates the suggestion that the major seismic activity occurred within a short time during and after the last deglaciation. The origin of the gas/groundwater seepages remains unclear. Their reflections in the echo-sounding profiles imply that part of the gas is derived from the organic-bearing Litorina and modern gyttja clays. However, at least some of the gas is derived from the bedrock. Additional information could be gained by pore water analysis from the pockmarks. Information on postglacial fault activation and possible gas and/or fluid discharges under high hydraulic heads has relevance in evaluating the safety assessment of a planned spent nuclear fuel repository in the region.