Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliaryregression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d < 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 = d < 1, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributedtests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach

The paper proposes a technique to jointly test for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of incomeper-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each grouphas clearly identifiable economic characteristics.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

Testing the descriptive performance of the rank-dependent utility in the domain of health profiles

Expected utility theory (EUT) has been challenged as a descriptive theoryin many contexts. The medical decision analysis context is not an exception.Several researchers have suggested that rank dependent utility theory (RDUT)may accurately describe how people evaluate alternative medical treatments.Recent research in this domain has addressed a relevant feature of RDU models-probability weighting-but to date no direct test of this theoryhas been made. This paper provides a test of the main axiomatic differencebetween EUT and RDUT when health profiles are used as outcomes of riskytreatments. Overall, EU best described the data. However, evidence on theediting and cancellation operation hypothesized in Prospect Theory andCumulative Prospect Theory was apparent in our study. we found that RDUoutperformed EU in the presentation of the risky treatment pairs in whichthe common outcome was not obvious. The influence of framing effects onthe performance of RDU and their importance as a topic for future researchis discussed.

Exact and approximate stepdown methods for multiple hypothesis testing

Consider the problem of testing k hypotheses simultaneously. In this paper,we discuss finite and large sample theory of stepdown methods that providecontrol of the familywise error rate (FWE). In order to improve upon theBonferroni method or Holm's (1979) stepdown method, Westfall and Young(1993) make eective use of resampling to construct stepdown methods thatimplicitly estimate the dependence structure of the test statistics. However,their methods depend on an assumption called subset pivotality. The goalof this paper is to construct general stepdown methods that do not requiresuch an assumption. In order to accomplish this, we take a close look atwhat makes stepdown procedures work, and a key component is a monotonicityrequirement of critical values. By imposing such monotonicity on estimatedcritical values (which is not an assumption on the model but an assumptionon the method), it is demonstrated that the problem of constructing a validmultiple test procedure which controls the FWE can be reduced to the problemof contructing a single test which controls the usual probability of a Type 1error. This reduction allows us to draw upon an enormous resamplingliterature as a general means of test contruction.

Position statement--altitude training for improving team-sport players' performance: current knowledge and unresolved issues.

Despite the limited research on the effects of altitude (or hypoxic) training interventions on team-sport performance, players from all around the world engaged in these sports are now using altitude training more than ever before. In March 2013, an Altitude Training and Team Sports conference was held in Doha, Qatar, to establish a forum of research and practical insights into this rapidly growing field. A round-table meeting in which the panellists engaged in focused discussions concluded this conference. This has resulted in the present position statement, designed to highlight some key issues raised during the debates and to integrate the ideas into a shared conceptual framework. The present signposting document has been developed for use by support teams (coaches, performance scientists, physicians, strength and conditioning staff) and other professionals who have an interest in the practical application of altitude training for team sports. After more than four decades of research, there is still no consensus on the optimal strategies to elicit the best results from altitude training in a team-sport population. However, there are some recommended strategies discussed in this position statement to adopt for improving the acclimatisation process when training/competing at altitude and for potentially enhancing sea-level performance. It is our hope that this information will be intriguing, balanced and, more importantly, stimulating to the point that it promotes constructive discussion and serves as a guide for future research aimed at advancing the bourgeoning body of knowledge in the area of altitude training for team sports.

Testing financing constraints on firm investment using variable capital

We consider a dynamic multifactor model of investment with financing imperfections,adjustment costs and fixed and variable capital. We use the model to derive a test offinancing constraints based on a reduced form variable capital equation. Simulation resultsshow that this test correctly identifies financially constrained firms even when the estimationof firms investment opportunities is very noisy. In addition, the test is well specified inthe presence of both concave and convex adjustment costs of fixed capital. We confirmempirically the validity of this test on a sample of small Italian manufacturing companies.

Full insurance, asymmetric information and genetic testing

This paper extends previous resuls on optimal insurance trading in the presence of a stock market that allows continuous asset trading and substantial personal heterogeneity, and applies those results in a context of asymmetric informationwith references to the role of genetic testing in insurance markets.We find a novel and surprising result under symmetric information:agents may optimally prefer to purchase full insurance despitethe presence of unfairly priced insurance contracts, and other assets which are correlated with insurance.Asymmetric information has a Hirschleifer-type effect whichcan be solved by suspending insurance trading. Nevertheless,agents can attain their first best allocations, which suggeststhat the practice of restricting insurance not to be contingenton genetic tests can be efficient.

Projecto de sensibilização e educação ambiental na área da prevenção da produção dos resíduos urbanos : proposta de integração da temática nos currícula do ensino básico de Cabo Verde

This research project has as main objective the design of a project to raise awareness and environmental education in the area of prevention of the urban waste production by focusing on the presentation of a methodological proposal to incorporate this theme in the Course Curriculum of the Basic Education in Cape Verde. The study aimed beyond the project design, the preparation of a guide and a set of activities, instruments to be used by the educational community and more directly by the teachers of the Basic Education (EB) of Cape Verde for knowledge construction in study area and promove the development of skills of those teachers in terms of planning activities for waste prevention. The realized work included visits to various sources of information considered relevant, the application and validation of some activities in the population testing process using the technique of participant observation. This research involved the collaboration of the educational community of Praia namely the BE teachers, Pedagogical team teaching and Promoters of the new BE Curriculum. The study made a contribution in the view of the definition of the methodology of the work project and the assessment tool in order to reflect on the work process and its subsequent correction / improvement of future operations. We also present a proposal of monitoring and evaluation instrument of the project which will be applied during the implementation phase. Its use will enable the school community to improve their practices and will facilitate the involvement of the educational community taking into consideration an environmental sustainability

Projecto de sensibilização e educação ambiental na área da prevenção da produção dos resíduos urbanos : proposta de integração da temática nos currícula do ensino básico de Cabo Verde

O presente trabalho de projecto tem como principal objectivo a concepção de um projecto de sensibilização e educação ambiental na área da prevenção da produção dos resíduos urbanos com enfoque na apresentação de uma proposta metodológica de integração desta temática nos Currícula do Ensino Básico de Cabo Verde. Do estudo desenvolvido resultou, além da concepção do projecto, a elaboração de um guia, bem como um caderno de actividades, instrumentos a serem utilizados pela comunidade educativa e mais directamente pelos professores do Ensino Básico (EB) de Cabo Verde visando o reforço de conhecimentos na área de estudo identificada e o desenvolvimento de competências juntos dos referidos professores, para a planificação de actividades de prevenção da produção dos resíduos urbanos. O trabalho realizado compreendeu visitas a várias fontes de informação consideradas pertinentes assim como a aplicação e validação de algumas actividades numa população-teste com utilização da técnica de observação participante. Deste modo, o estudo contou com a colaboração da comunidade educativa da Cidade da Praia nomeadamente professores do EB, Equipa pedagógica e Promotores do novo Currículo do EB. O estudo permitiu dar um contributo na perspectiva da definição da metodologia do trabalho do projecto e instrumento de avaliação, visando uma reflexão sobre o trabalho desenvolvido e sua consequente correcção/melhoria de futuras acções. Apresentamos ainda uma proposta de instrumentos de acompanhamento e avaliação do projecto cuja aplicação se propõe no decorrer da implementação do mesmo. A sua utilização permitirá à comunidade escolar melhorar as suas práticas e facilitará o envolvimento da comunidade educativa tendo em vista a sustentabilidade ambiental.

Projecto de sensibilização e educação ambiental na área da prevenção da produção dos resíduos urbanos : proposta de integração da temática nos currícula do ensino básico de Cabo Verde

This research project has as main objective the design of a project to raise awareness and environmental education in the area of prevention of the urban waste production by focusing on the presentation of a methodological proposal to incorporate this theme in the Course Curriculum of the Basic Education in Cape Verde. The study aimed beyond the project design, the preparation of a guide and a set of activities, instruments to be used by the educational community and more directly by the teachers of the Basic Education (EB) of Cape Verde for knowledge construction in study area and promove the development of skills of those teachers in terms of planning activities for waste prevention. The realized work included visits to various sources of information considered relevant, the application and validation of some activities in the population testing process using the technique of participant observation. This research involved the collaboration of the educational community of Praia namely the BE teachers, Pedagogical team teaching and Promoters of the new BE Curriculum. The study made a contribution in the view of the definition of the methodology of the work project and the assessment tool in order to reflect on the work process and its subsequent correction / improvement of future operations. We also present a proposal of monitoring and evaluation instrument of the project which will be applied during the implementation phase. Its use will enable the school community to improve their practices and will facilitate the involvement of the educational community taking into consideration an environmental sustainability

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

A new alternative method for testing skin irritation using a human skin model: a pilot study.

Studies assessing skin irritation to chemicals have traditionally used laboratory animals; however, such methods are questionable regarding their relevance for humans. New in vitro methods have been validated, such as the reconstructed human epidermis (RHE) model (Episkin®, Epiderm®). The comparison (accuracy) with in vivo results such as the 4-h human patch test (HPT) is 76% at best (Epiderm®). There is a need to develop an in vitro method that better simulates the anatomo-pathological changes encountered in vivo. To develop an in vitro method to determine skin irritation using human viable skin through histopathology, and compare the results of 4 tested substances to the main in vitro methods and in vivo animal method (Draize test). Human skin removed during surgery was dermatomed and mounted on an in vitro flow-through diffusion cell system. Ten chemicals with known non-irritant (heptylbutyrate, hexylsalicylate, butylmethacrylate, isoproturon, bentazon, DEHP and methylisothiazolinone (MI)) and irritant properties (folpet, 1-bromohexane and methylchloroisothiazolinone (MCI/MI)), a negative control (sodiumchloride) and a positive control (sodiumlaurylsulphate) were applied. The skin was exposed at least for 4h. Histopathology was performed to investigate irritation signs (spongiosis, necrosis, vacuolization). We obtained 100% accuracy with the HPT model; 75% with the RHE models and 50% with the Draize test for 4 tested substances. The coefficients of variation (CV) between our three test batches were <0.1, showing good reproducibility. Furthermore, we reported objectively histopathological irritation signs (irritation scale): strong (folpet), significant (1-bromohexane), slight (MCI/MI at 750/250ppm) and none (isoproturon, bentazon, DEHP and MI). This new in vitro test method presented effective results for the tested chemicals. It should be further validated using a greater number of substances; and tested in different laboratories in order to suitably evaluate reproducibility.

Tests pharmacogénétiques: bientôt avant chaque prescription [Pharmacogenetic testing: soon before every prescription?]

Genetic polymorphisms have currently been described in more than 200 systems affecting pharmacological responses (cytochromes P450, conjugation enzymes, transporters, receptors, effectors of response, protection mechanisms, determinants of immunity). Pharmacogenetic testing, i.e. the profiling of individual patients for such variations, is about to become largely available. Recent progress in the pharmacogenetics of tamoxifen, oral anticoagulants and anti-HIV agents is reviewed to discuss critically their potential impact on prescription and contribution/limits for improving rational and safe use of pharmaceuticals. Prospective controlled trials are required to evaluate large-scale pharmacogenetic testing in therapeutics. Ethical, social and psychological issues deserve particular attention.