Gas demand for power generation peaked as early as 2010. CEPS Commentary, 12 February 2016

The outlook for natural gas demand is often considered bright, especially for gas used to generate electricity. This is because gas is the cleanest of all fossil fuels. The carbon intensity of modern gas-fired power stations is less than 50% that of modern coal plants. Moreover, gas-fired units are well-suited to follow rapid swings in supply and demand due to their flexibility. In the future, these balancing tasks will become more and more important given the intermittent character of the supply of wind and solar power. Gas seems to hold out the promise of being a key pillar of the energy transition and the perfect partner of renewables. Given the EU’s long-term climate policy goals, however, there is strong evidence that demand for gas for purposes of power generation peaked as early as 2010.

The Digital Market for Local Services: A one-night stand for workers? An example from the on-demand economy. CEPS Special Report, No. 133/April 2016

This case study provides a snapshot of the dynamics in the digital market for locally provided personal services. Based on a case study for a Belgium platform with 14,113 identified workers and 9,459 posted tasks, the findings suggest that the current intermediation is inefficient. Only a limited share of the tasks posted on the platform are being completed, whereas the characteristics of the not-completed tasks are fairly limited. Moreover, just a small share of the workers participating in the platform is actually performing the completed tasks. Their average earnings per hour are in most cases above the minimum wage and even above the median wage in the offline market. At the present time, however, the limited earnings for individual workers prevent this mode of working from becoming an alternative to a conventional job. In addition to the standard determinants of workers’ earnings (e.g. gender, age, occupation, etc.), the characteristics and evaluation mechanism of the platform have a large influence on the distribution of tasks and earnings.

Modeling and validation of the thermal behavior of buildings for the development of demand response methods

The representation of the thermal behaviour of the building is achieved through a relatively simple dynamic model that takes into account the effects due to the thermal mass of the building components. The model of a intra-floor apartment has been built in the Matlab-Simulink environment and considers the heat transmission through the external envelope, wall and windows, the internal thermal masses, (i.e. furniture, internal wall and floor slabs) and the sun gain due to opaque and see-through surfaces of the external envelope. The simulations results for the entire year have been compared and the model validated, with the one obtained with the dynamic building simulation software Energyplus.

Integration of robotic inverse kinematic routines in an algorithmic 3D modeling software

An industrial manipulator equipped with an automatic clay extruder is used to realize a machine that can manufacture additively clay objects. The desired geometries are designed by means of a 3D modeling software and then sliced in a sequence of layers with the same thickness of the extruded clay section. The profiles of each layer are transformed in trajectories for the extruder and therefore for the end-effector of the manipulator. The goal of this thesis is to improve the algorithm for the inverse kinematic resolution and the integration of the routine within the development software that controls the machine (Rhino/Grasshopper). The kinematic model is described by homogeneous transformations, adopting the Denavit-Hartenberg standard convention. The function is implemented in C# and it has been preliminarily tested in Matlab. The outcome of this work is a substantial reduction of the computation time relative to the execution of the algorithm, which is halved.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

Effects of fiscal consolidations in Latin America

We use new data on cyclically adjusted primary balances for Latin America and the Caribbean to estimate e ects of scal consolidations on GDP and some of its components. Identi cation is conducted through a doubly-robust estimation procedure that controls for non-randomness in the "treatment assignment" by inverse probability weighting and impulse responses are generated by local projections. Results suggest output contraction by more than one percent on impact, with economy starting to recover from the second year on. Composition e ects indicate that revenue-based adjustments are way more contractionary than expenditure-based ones. Disentangling efects between demand components, we nd consumption being in general less responsive to consolidations than investment, although nonlinearities associated to initial levels of debt and taxation might play an important role.

Optimum Design of Electromagnets for Magnetic Levitation of Transport Systems based on the Inverse Problem Solutions

Article is devoted to design of optimum electromagnets for magnetic levitation of transport systems. The method of electromagnets design based on the inverse problem solution of electrical equipment is offered. The method differs from known by introducing a stage of minimization the target functions providing the stated levitation force and magnetic induction in a gap, and also the mass of an electromagnet. Initial values of parameters are received, using approximate formulas of the theory of electric devices and electrical equipment. The example of realization of a method is given. The received results show its high efficiency at design. It is practical to use the offered method and the computer program realizing it as a part of system of the automated design of electric equipment for transport with a magnetic levitation.

Amélioration a posteriori de la traduction automatique par métaheuristique

La traduction automatique statistique est un domaine très en demande et où les machines sont encore loin de produire des résultats de qualité humaine. La principale méthode utilisée est une traduction linéaire segment par segment d'une phrase, ce qui empêche de changer des parties de la phrase déjà traduites. La recherche pour ce mémoire se base sur l'approche utilisée dans Langlais, Patry et Gotti 2007, qui tente de corriger une traduction complétée en modifiant des segments suivant une fonction à optimiser. Dans un premier temps, l'exploration de nouveaux traits comme un modèle de langue inverse et un modèle de collocation amène une nouvelle dimension à la fonction à optimiser. Dans un second temps, l'utilisation de différentes métaheuristiques, comme les algorithmes gloutons et gloutons randomisés permet l'exploration plus en profondeur de l'espace de recherche et permet une plus grande amélioration de la fonction objectif.

Inverse and symmetrical voice: On languages with two transitive constructions

In voice and alignment typology, a categorical distinction is generally made between inverse systems on the one hand and symmetrical voice systems on the other. A major reason for distinguishing between these two types is the assumption that inverse systems are governed by a hierarchy involving grammatical, semantic, and ontological criteria, while symmetrical voice systems are based on discourse-pragmatic factors. However, the two types also have several important properties in common, in particular the fact that they have more than one nonderived transitive construction. Based on data from three native languages of South America, we show that the line between the two types is not always easy to draw, and that features of the inverse type can coexist with those of the symmetrical-voice type in the same language.

Predicting the demand for high occupancy vehicle lanes. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Traffic Management and IVHS, Washington, D.C.

Aspects of teacher supply and demand in public school districts and private schools, 1987-88 /

"Data series: DR-SAS-87/88.

Summary of supply and demand for agricultural products in Indonesia, 1975-85 /

Mode of access: Internet.

National gas supply and demand, 1971-1990

Bibliography: p. 151-166