High-resolution seismic images of potentially seismogenic structures beneath the northwest Canterbury Plains, New Zealand

The transpressional boundary between the Australian and Pacific plates in the central South Island of New Zealand comprises the Alpine Fault and a broad region of distributed strain concentrated in the Southern Alps but encompassing regions further to the east, including the northwest Canterbury Plains. Low to moderate levels of seismicity (e. g., 2 > M 5 events since 1974 and 2 > M 4.0 in 2009) and Holocene sediments offset or disrupted along rare exposed active fault segments are evidence for ongoing tectonism in the northwest plains, the surface topography of which is remarkably flat and even. Because the geology underlying the late Quaternary alluvial fan deposits that carpet most of the plains is not established, the detailed tectonic evolution of this region and the potential for larger earthquakes is only poorly understood. To address these issues, we have processed and interpreted high-resolution (2.5 m subsurface sampling interval) seismic data acquired along lines strategically located relative to extensive rock exposures to the north, west, and southwest and rare exposures to the east. Geological information provided by these rock exposures offer important constraints on the interpretation of the seismic data. The processed seismic reflection sections image a variably thick layer of generally undisturbed younger (i.e., < 24 ka) Quaternary alluvial sediments unconformably overlying an older (> 59 ka) Quaternary sedimentary sequence that shows evidence of moderate faulting and folding during and subsequent to deposition. These Quaternary units are in unconformable contact with Late Cretaceous-Tertiary interbedded sedimentary and volcanic rocks that are highly faulted, folded, and tilted. The lowest imaged unit is largely reflection-free Permian Triassic basement rocks. Quaternary-age deformation has affected all the rocks underlying the younger alluvial sediments, and there is evidence for ongoing deformation. Eight primary and numerous secondary faults as well as a major anticlinal fold are revealed on the seismic sections. Folded sedimentary and volcanic units are observed in the hanging walls and footwalls of most faults. Five of the primary faults represent plausible extensions of mapped faults, three of which are active. The major anticlinal fold is the probable continuation of known active structure. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred on 4 September 2010 near the southeastern edge of our study area. This predominantly right-lateral strike-slip event and numerous aftershocks (ten with magnitudes >= 5 within one week of the main event) highlight the primary message of our paper: that the generally flat and topographically featureless Canterbury Plains is underlain by a network of active faults that have the potential to generate significant earthquakes.

Younger age as a bad prognostic factor in patients with carcinoma of the cervix.

OBJECTIVE: To verify the influence of age on the prognosis of cervix carcinoma. STUDY DESIGN: Five hundred and sixty eight patients treated for a FIGO stage IB-IVA with radical irradiation in the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois of Lausanne were subdivided according to the following age categories: < or = 45, 46-60, 61-69 and >70 years. Taking the 46-60 years age group as the reference, the hazard ratios (HR) of death and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated by means of a Cox multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The 5-year survival rates were, respectively, 57%, 67%, 60% and 45%. For the youngest women the risk of death was significantly increased (HR = 2.00, 95% CI [1.32-3.00]) and was even more accentuated in advanced stages. CONCLUSION: Age under 45 years is a bad prognostic factor in carcinoma of the cervix.

β-Lactam Monotherapy vs β-Lactam-Macrolide Combination Treatment in Moderately Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Randomized Noninferiority Trial.

IMPORTANCE: The clinical benefit of adding a macrolide to a β-lactam for empirical treatment of moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To test noninferiority of a β-lactam alone compared with a β-lactam and macrolide combination in moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Open-label, multicenter, noninferiority, randomized trial conducted from January 13, 2009, through January 31, 2013, in 580 immunocompetent adult patients hospitalized in 6 acute care hospitals in Switzerland for moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia. Follow-up extended to 90 days. Outcome assessors were masked to treatment allocation. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were treated with a β-lactam and a macrolide (combination arm) or with a β-lactam alone (monotherapy arm). Legionella pneumophila infection was systematically searched and treated by addition of a macrolide to the monotherapy arm. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Proportion of patients not reaching clinical stability (heart rate <100/min, systolic blood pressure >90 mm Hg, temperature <38.0°C, respiratory rate <24/min, and oxygen saturation >90% on room air) at day 7. RESULTS: After 7 days of treatment, 120 of 291 patients (41.2%) in the monotherapy arm vs 97 of 289 (33.6%) in the combination arm had not reached clinical stability (7.6% difference, P = .07). The upper limit of the 1-sided 90% CI was 13.0%, exceeding the predefined noninferiority boundary of 8%. Patients infected with atypical pathogens (hazard ratio [HR], 0.33; 95% CI, 0.13-0.85) or with Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) category IV pneumonia (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.59-1.10) were less likely to reach clinical stability with monotherapy, whereas patients not infected with atypical pathogens (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.80-1.22) or with PSI category I to III pneumonia (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.82-1.36) had equivalent outcomes in the 2 arms. There were more 30-day readmissions in the monotherapy arm (7.9% vs 3.1%, P = .01). Mortality, intensive care unit admission, complications, length of stay, and recurrence of pneumonia within 90 days did not differ between the 2 arms. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: We did not find noninferiority of β-lactam monotherapy in patients hospitalized for moderately severe community-acquired pneumonia. Patients infected with atypical pathogens or with PSI category IV pneumonia had delayed clinical stability with monotherapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00818610.

Extent of resection in glioblastoma - variation between molecular risk groups in rtog-0525

Whether maximal surgical resection of glioblastoma improves patient survival has been controversial, as it is difficult to perform an unbiased assessment of extent of resection (EOR) independent of other patient-specific prognostic factors. Recently, glioblastoma has been sub-classified into 4 distinct molecular risk groups (RGs), which have been validated as prognostic biomarkers in the randomized clinical trial of temozolomide dosing in glioblastoma: the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0525 (RTOG-0525) trial. We sought to perform exploratory analyses examining gross total resection (GTR) versus sub-total resection (STR) within these RGs in RTOG-0525 patients. Across all randomized patients, n ¼ 354 had STR and n ¼ 450 had GTR as determined by neurosurgeon operative report. GTR was not significantly associated with survival across the overall study group. A total of 725 patients had sufficient tissue for determination of molecular RG. There were no significant differences in percentage of GTR between each of the 4 RGs (P ¼ 0.64). In exploratory subgroup analyses, GTR was associated with improved survival only for patients with tumors from RG4. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.52 (0.08-2.07) for RG1 (n ¼ 28, 68% GTR), 1.74 (0.75-4.05) for RG2 (n ¼ 39, 56% GTR), 1.09 (0.84-1.42) for RG3 (n ¼ 284, 56% GTR), and 1.26 (1.01-1.56) for RG4 (n ¼ 374, 55% GTR). In univariate analysis within RG4, GTR was associated with a median survival of 14.6 months vs 12.7 months for STR (P ¼ 0.0352. In a Cox model adjusting for age, KPS, and neurologic function (NF), surgery remained an independent factor within RG4: GTR (P ¼ 0.0331), age (P ¼ 0.0014), KPS (P ¼ .3289), and NF (P ¼ 0.3804). There are important cautions in the interpretation of these data, including lack of MRI confirmation of EOR, and inclusion of a range of STR (from biopsy to near-total resection). However, these exploratory results raise the possibility that upfront characterization of tumor molecular profile may allow for personalized therapeutic strategies to improve outcomes for patients with glioblastoma.

Les coûts des dommages éléments naturels aux bâtiments et l'influence des facteurs du risque dans un contexte d'assurance immobilière : analyse de cas des innondations et de la grêle en Suisse

In Switzerland, the annual cost of damage by natural elements has been increasing for several years despite the introduction of protective measures. Mainly induced by material destruction building insurance companies have to pay the majority of this cost. In many European countries, governments and insurance companies consider prevention strategies to reduce vulnerability. In Switzerland, since 2004, the cost of damage due to natural hazards has surpassed the cost of damage due to fire; a traditional activity of the Cantonal Insurance company (EGA). Therefore, the strategy for efficient fire prevention incorporates a reduction of the vulnerability of buildings. The thesis seeks to illustrate the relevance of such an approach when applied to the damage caused by natural hazards. It examines the role of insurance place and its involvement in targeted prevention of natural disasters. Integrated risk management involves a faultless comprehension of all risk parameters The first part of the thesis is devoted to the theoretical development of the key concepts that influence risk management, such as: hazard, vulnerability, exposure or damage. The literature on this subject, very prolific in recent years, was taken into account and put in perspective in the context of this study. Among the risk parameters, it is shown in the thesis that vulnerability is a factor that we can influence efficiently in order to limit the cost of damage to buildings. This is confirmed through the development of an analysis method. This method has led to the development of a tool to assess damage to buildings by flooding. The tool, designed for the property insurer or owner, proposes several steps, namely: - Vulnerability and damage potential assessment; - Proposals for remedial measures and risk reduction from an analysis of the costs of a potential flood; - Adaptation of a global strategy in high-risk areas based on the elements at risk. The final part of the thesis is devoted to the study of a hail event in order to provide a better understanding of damage to buildings. For this, two samples from the available claims data were selected and analysed in the study. The results allow the identification of new trends A second objective of the study was to develop a hail model based on the available data The model simulates a random distribution of intensities and coupled with a risk model, proposes a simulation of damage costs for the determined study area. Le coût annuel des dommages provoqués par les éléments naturels en Suisse est conséquent et sa tendance est en augmentation depuis plusieurs années, malgré la mise en place d'ouvrages de protection et la mise en oeuvre de moyens importants. Majoritairement induit par des dégâts matériels, le coût est supporté en partie par les assurances immobilières en ce qui concerne les dommages aux bâtiments. Dans de nombreux pays européens, les gouvernements et les compagnies d'assurance se sont mis à concevoir leur stratégie de prévention en termes de réduction de la vulnérabilité. Depuis 2004, en Suisse, ce coût a dépassé celui des dommages dus à l'incendie, activité traditionnelle des établissements cantonaux d'assurance (ECA). Ce fait, aux implications stratégiques nombreuses dans le domaine public de la gestion des risques, résulte en particulier d'une politique de prévention des incendies menée efficacement depuis plusieurs années, notamment par le biais de la diminution de la vulnérabilité des bâtiments. La thèse, par la mise en valeur de données actuarielles ainsi que par le développement d'outils d'analyse, cherche à illustrer la pertinence d'une telle approche appliquée aux dommages induits par les phénomènes naturels. Elle s'interroge sur la place de l'assurance et son implication dans une prévention ciblée des catastrophes naturelles. La gestion intégrale des risques passe par une juste maîtrise de ses paramètres et de leur compréhension. La première partie de la thèse est ainsi consacrée au développement théorique des concepts clés ayant une influence sur la gestion des risques, comme l'aléa, la vulnérabilité, l'exposition ou le dommage. La littérature à ce sujet, très prolifique ces dernières années, a été repnse et mise en perspective dans le contexte de l'étude, à savoir l'assurance immobilière. Parmi les paramètres du risque, il est démontré dans la thèse que la vulnérabilité est un facteur sur lequel il est possible d'influer de manière efficace dans le but de limiter les coûts des dommages aux bâtiments. Ce raisonnement est confirmé dans un premier temps dans le cadre de l'élaboration d'une méthode d'analyse ayant débouché sur le développement d'un outil d'estimation des dommages aux bâtiments dus aux inondations. L'outil, destiné aux assurances immobilières, et le cas échéant aux propriétaires, offre plusieurs étapes, à savoir : - l'analyse de la vulnérabilité et le potentiel de dommages ; - des propositions de mesures de remédiation et de réduction du risque issues d'une analyse des coûts engendrés par une inondation potentielle; - l'adaptation d'une stratégie globale dans les zones à risque en fonction des éléments à risque. La dernière partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude d'un événement de grêle dans le but de fournir une meilleure compréhension des dommages aux bâtiments et de leur structure. Pour cela, deux échantillons ont été sélectionnés et analysés parmi les données de sinistres à disposition de l'étude. Les résultats obtenus, tant au niveau du portefeuille assuré que de l'analyse individuelle, permettent de dégager des tendances nouvelles. Un deuxième objectif de l'étude a consisté à élaborer une modélisation d'événements de grêle basée sur les données à disposition. Le modèle permet de simuler une distribution aléatoire des intensités et, couplé à un modèle d'estimation des risques, offre une simulation des coûts de dommages envisagés pour une zone d'étude déterminée. Les perspectives de ce travail permettent une meilleure focalisation du rôle de l'assurance et de ses besoins en matière de prévention.

The risk of subsequent cancer and arterial cardiovascular events in patients with superficial vein thrombosis in the legs.

Although it has been clearly demonstrated that venous thromboembolism is associated with an increased risk of subsequent overt cancer and arterial cardiovascular events in comparison with control populations, whether this association also applies to patients with isolated (ie, without concomitant involvement of the deep vein system) superficial vein thrombosis (SVT) in the legs is unknown. In 737 consecutive patients with isolated SVT not involving the sapheno-femoral junction, we conducted a retrospective investigation to assess the rate of cancer and that of arterial cardiovascular events occurring during follow-up. The event rates were compared with those occurring in 1438 controls having comparable characteristics. Both cases and controls were followed-up for an average period of 26 ± 8 months (range, 3-45). Malignancy was diagnosed in 26 cases (3.5%) and 56 controls (3.9%), leading to a hazard ratio of 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.55%-1.35%). Arterial cardiovascular events occurred in 32 cases (4.3%) and 63 controls (4.4%), leading to a hazard ratio of 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.63%-1.50%). We conclude that the occurrence of isolated SVT in the legs does not place patients at an increased risk of malignancies or arterial cardiovascular events. Whether this conclusion also applies to patients whose thrombosis involves the sapheno-femoral junction remains to be demonstrated.

Voluntary alcohol consumption is controlled via the neuropeptide Y Y1 receptor.

We have shown previously that voluntary ethanol consumption and resistance to ethanol-induced sedation are inversely related to neuropeptide Y (NPY) levels in NPY-knock-out (NPY(-/-)) and NPY-overexpressing mice. In the present report, we studied knock-out mice completely lacking the NPY Y1 receptor (Y1(-/-)) to further characterize the role of the NPY system in ethanol consumption and neurobiological responses to this drug. Here we report that male Y1(-/-) mice showed increased consumption of solutions containing 3, 6, and 10% (v/v) ethanol when compared with wild-type (Y1(+/+)) control mice. Female Y1(-/-) mice showed increased consumption of a 10% ethanol solution. In contrast, Y1(-/-) mice showed normal consumption of solutions containing either sucrose or quinine. Relative to Y1(+/+) mice, male Y1(-/-) mice were found to be less sensitive to the sedative effects of 3.5 and 4.0 gm/kg ethanol as measured by more rapid recovery from ethanol-induced sleep, although plasma ethanol levels did not differ significantly between the genotypes. Finally, male Y1(-/-) mice showed normal ethanol-induced ataxia on the rotarod test after administration of a 2.5 gm/kg dose. These data suggest that the NPY Y1 receptor regulates voluntary ethanol consumption and some of the intoxicating effects caused by administration of ethanol.

Influence of IFNL3/4 Polymorphisms on the Incidence of Cytomegalovirus Infection After Solid-Organ Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Polymorphisms in IFNL3 and IFNL4, the genes encoding interferon λ3 and interferon λ4, respectively, have been associated with reduced hepatitis C virus clearance. We explored the role of such polymorphisms on the incidence of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in solid-organ transplant recipients. METHODS: White patients participating in the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study in 2008-2011 were included. A novel functional TT/-G polymorphism (rs368234815) in the CpG region upstream of IFNL3 was investigated. RESULTS: A total of 840 solid-organ transplant recipients at risk for CMV infection were included, among whom 373 (44%) received antiviral prophylaxis. The 12-month cumulative incidence of CMV replication and disease were 0.44 and 0.08 cases, respectively. Patient homozygous for the minor rs368234815 allele (-G/-G) tended to have a higher cumulative incidence of CMV replication (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 1.30 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .97-1.74]; P = .07), compared with other patients (TT/TT or TT/-G). The association was significant among patients followed by a preemptive approach (SHR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.01-2.12]; P = .047), especially in patients receiving an organ from a seropositive donor (SHR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.30-2.85]; P = .001), but not among those who received antiviral prophylaxis (SHR, 1.13 [95% CI, .70-1.83]; P = .6). These associations remained significant in multivariate competing risk regression models. CONCLUSIONS: Polymorphisms in the IFNL3/4 region influence susceptibility to CMV replication in solid-organ transplant recipients, particularly in patients not receiving antiviral prophylaxis.

How to prevent overdiagnosis

Overdiagnosis is the diagnosis of an abnormality that is not associated with a substantial health hazard and that patients have no benefit to be aware of. It is neither a misdiagnosis (diagnostic error), nor a false positive result (positive test in the absence of a real abnormality). It mainly results from screening, use of increasingly sensitive diagnostic tests, incidental findings on routine examinations, and widening diagnostic criteria to define a condition requiring an intervention. The blurring boundaries between risk and disease, physicians' fear of missing a diagnosis and patients' need for reassurance are further causes of overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis often implies procedures to confirm or exclude the presence of the condition and is by definition associated with useless treatments and interventions, generating harm and costs without any benefit. Overdiagnosis also diverts healthcare professionals from caring about other health issues. Preventing overdiagnosis requires increasing awareness of healthcare professionals and patients about its occurrence, the avoidance of unnecessary and untargeted diagnostic tests, and the avoidance of screening without demonstrated benefits. Furthermore, accounting systematically for the harms and benefits of screening and diagnostic tests and determining risk factor thresholds based on the expected absolute risk reduction would also help prevent overdiagnosis.

SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging: long-term prognostic value in diabetic patients with and without coronary artery disease.

AIM: To determine the long-term prognostic value of SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for the occurrence of cardiovascular events in diabetic patients. PATIENTS, METHODS: SPECT MPI of 210 consecutive Caucasian diabetic patients were analysed using Kaplan-Meier event-free survival curves and independent predictors were determined by Cox multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Follow-up was complete in 200 (95%) patients with a median period of 3.0 years (0.8-5.0). The population was composed of 114 (57%) men, age 65 +/- 10 years, 181 (90.5%) type 2 diabetes mellitus, 50 (25%) with a history of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 98 (49%) presenting chest pain prior to MPI. The prevalence of abnormal MPI was 58%. Patients with a normal MPI had neither cardiac death, nor myocardial infarction, independently of a history of coronary artery disease or chest pain. Among the independent predictors of cardiac death and myocardial infarction, the strongest was abnormal MPI (p < 0.0001), followed by history of CAD (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 15.9; p = 0.0001), diabetic retinopathy (HR = 10.0; p = 0.001) and inability to exercise (HR = 7.7; p = 0.02). Patients with normal MPI had a low revascularisation rate of 2.4% during the follow-up period. Compared to normal MPI, cardiovascular events increased 5.2 fold for reversible defects, 8.5 fold for fixed defects and 20.1 fold for the association of both defects. CONCLUSION: Diabetic patients with normal MPI had an excellent prognosis independently of history of CAD. On the opposite, an abnormal MPI led to a >5-fold increase in cardiovascular events. This emphasizes the value of SPECT MPI in predicting and risk-stratifying cardiovascular events in diabetic patients.

Prognostic effect of epithelial cell adhesion molecule overexpression in untreated node-negative breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Epithelial cell adhesion molecule (Ep-CAM) recently received increased attention not only as a prognostic factor in breast cancer but also as a potential target for immunotherapy. We examined Ep-CAM expression in 402 consecutive node-negative breast cancer patients with long-term follow-up not treated in the adjuvant setting. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Ep-CAM expression was evaluated by immunostaining. Its prognostic effect was estimated relative to overexpression/amplification of HER-2, histologic grade, tumor size, age, and hormone receptor expression. RESULTS: Ep-CAM status was positive in 106 (26.4%) patients. In multivariate analysis, Ep-CAM status was associated with disease-free survival independent of age, pT stage, histologic grade, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), as well as HER2 status (P = 0.028; hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.44). Recently, so-called triple-negative (HER-2, ER, and PR) breast cancer has received increased attention. We noticed a similar association of Ep-CAM with disease-free survival in the triple-negative group as for the entire cohort. CONCLUSION: In this study of untreated breast cancer patients, Ep-CAM overexpression was associated with poor survival in the entire cohort and in the subgroup of triple-negative breast cancer. This suggests that Ep-CAM may be a well-suited target for specific therapies particularly in HER-2-, ER-, and PR-negative tumors.

Endogenous Credit Cycles and Financial Dampening in an Adverse Selection Economy

We propose an adverse selection framework in which the financial sector has a dual role. It amplifies or dampens exogenous shocks and also generates endogenous fluctuations. We fully characterize constrained optimal contracts in a setting in which entrepreneurs need to borrow and are privately informed about the quality of their projects. Our characterization is novel in analyzing pooling and separating allocations in a context of multi-dimensional screening: specifically, the amounts of investment undertaken and of entrepreneurial net worth are used to screen projects. We then embed these results in a dynamic competitive economy. First, we show how endogenous regime switches in financial contracts may generate fluctuations in an economy that exhibits no dynamics under full information. Unlike previous models of endogenous cycles, our result does not rely on entrepreneurial net worth being counter-cyclical or inconsequential for determining investment. Secondly, the model shows the different implications of adverse selection as opposed to pure moral hazard. In particular, and contrary to standard results in the macroeconomic literature, the financial system may dampen exogenous shocks in the presence of adverse selection.

Executive Order Number Thirty Nine, September 12, 1989

Forms State hazard mitigation team, chaired by Department of Public Defense, Disaster Services Division, to determine capabilitites of State agencies, provide assistance, improve preparedness, response, and recovery from disasters.

Organizational Choice and Environmental Change

We explain the choice between franchising and vertical integration by estimating a model of relative performance in a sample of 250 Spanish car distributors, controlling for self-selection and including environmental factors. The method allows us to estimate performance counterfactuals. Organizational choice seemingly aims to contain moral hazard for both distributors and manufacturers but it is subject to start-up constraints and switching costs. While the market for franchises remained underdeveloped, information asymmetries led to the opening of integrated outlets. Their subsequent conversion into franchised outlets probably involved prohibitive transaction costs. Consequently, they performed worse than would have been expected had they been independent, as confirmed by the systematic improvement observed when they were in fact converted. The timing of such conversions suggests that switching costs were prohibitive until firms developed a substantial cushion of temporary contracts, previously forbidden by regulation.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.