On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

Aggregate uncertainty, disappointment aversion and the business cycle

We investigate the eff ect of aggregate uncertainty shocks on real variables. More speci fically, we introduce a shock in the volatility of productivity in an RBC model with long-run volatility risk and preferences that exhibit generalised disappointment aversion. We find that, when combined with a negative productivity shock, a volatility shock leads to further decline in real variables, such as output, consumption, hours worked and investment. For instance, out of the 2% decrease in output as a result of both shocks, we attribute 0.25% to the e ffect of an increase in volatility. We also fi nd that this e ffect is the same as the one obtained in a model with Epstein-Zin- Weil preferences, but higher than that of a model with expected utility. Moreover, GDA preferences yield superior asset pricing results, when compared to both Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and expected utility.

The exhaustion of the brazilian growth cycle

O Brasil recebeu muita atenção na última década, sua ascensão ao status de grande potência e uma das maiores economias mundiais tem sido enfatizada. No entanto, existem sinais de que essa prosperidade recente está chegando ao fim, sugerindo que houve um excesso de otimismo em relação ao aparente sucesso econômico do país e a possiblidade de crescimento contínuo. O Brasil focou na exportação de produtos primários e em um modelo de crescimento baseado no consumo, que se tornaram as locomotivas da economia. Uma pujante economia mundial demandando produtos primários e um amplo e inexplorado mercado interno ajudam a explicar o crescimento brasileiro na década passada. Não obstante, esse modelo apresenta diversas limitações. A inflação, mais uma vez, está em alta e os gargalos que impedem o desenvolvimento econômico não foram resolvidos. O objetivo desta dissertação é demonstrar que o atual ciclo de crescimento da economia brasileira está no fim. Dados de diversas fontes, nacionais e internacionais, serão usados para indicar que, novamente, o país teve um crescimento efêmero e não possui uma estrutura econômica adequada para promover o desenvolvimento de longo prazo. Uma breve análise dos fundamentos econômicos, clima de negócios e outros tópicos relacionados ao crescimento e desenvolvimento será apresentada, articulando dados e fatos para encontrar causas e explicações para a atual inversão de tendência econômica.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

The life-cycle effects of social security in a model with housing and endogenous benefits

This article develops a life-cycle general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents who make choices of nondurables consumption, investment in homeowned housing and labour supply. Agents retire from an specific age and receive Social Security benefits which are dependant on average past earnings. The model is calibrated, numerically solved and is able to match stylized U.S. aggregate statistics and to generate average life-cycle profiles of its decision variables consistent with data and literature. We also conduct an exercise of complete elimination of the Social Security system and compare its results with the benchmark economy. The results enable us to emphasize the importance of endogenous labour supply and benefits for agents' consumption-smoothing behaviour.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Unit roots and the welfare gains of cycle smoothing

li consumption is log-Normal and is decomposed into a linear deterministic trend and a stationary cycle, a surprising result in business-cycle research is that the welfare gains of eliminating uncertainty are relatively small. A possible problem with such calculations is the dichotomy between the trend and the cyclical components of consumption. In this paper, we abandon this dichotomy in two ways. First, we decompose consumption into a deterministic trend, a stochastic trend, and a stationary cyclical component, calculating the welfare gains of cycle smoothing. Calculations are carried forward only after a careful discussion of the limitations of macroeconomic policy. Second, still under the stochastic-trend model, we incorporate a variable slope for consumption depending negatively on the overall volatility in the economy. Results are obtained for a variety of preference parameterizations, parameter values, and different macroeconomic-policy goals. They show that, once the dichotomy in the decomposition in consumption is abandoned, the welfare gains of cycle smoothing may be substantial, especially due to the volatility effect.

Monopolies life cycle, bureaucratization, and Schumpeterian growth

This paper analyzes the links between the internaI organization of firms and macroeconomic growth. We present a Schumpeterian growth model in which firms face dynamic agency costs. These agency costs are due to the formation of vertical collusions within the organization. To respond to the opportunity of internaI collusion, firms go through a whole life cycle, getting more bureaucratized and Iess efficient over time. vVeak creative destruction in the economy facilitates informal collusion inside firms and exacerbates bureaucratization. As bureaucratization affects the firms' profitability and the return to innovation, stationary equilibrium growth depends in turn on the efficiency of collusive side-contracts within firms.

Life Cycle Models, Heterogeneity of Initial Assets,and Wealth Inequality

Life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this article, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data - and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets, which is estimated using a non-parametric method applied to data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets.

La dimension personelle dans la formation des enseignants de l'enseignement de base du 1er cycle à Madère

Orientador Louis Marmoz

Changes in peak expiratory flow and respiratory strength during the menstrual cycle

This study evaluated the spirometry and respiratory static pressures in 17 young women, twice a week for three successive ovulatory menstrual cycles to determine if such variables changed across the menstrual, follicular, periovulatory, early-tomid luteal and late luteal phases. The factors phases of menstrual cycle and individual cycles had no significant effect on the spirometry variables except for peak expiratory flow (PEF) and respiratory static pressures. Significant weak positive correlations were found between the progesterone:estradiol ratio and PEF and between estrogen and tidal volume (r = 0.37), inspiratory time (r = 0.22), expiratory time (r = 0.19), maximal inspiratory pressure (r = 0.25) and maximal expiratory pressure (r = 0.20) and for progesterone and maximal inspiratory pressure (r = 0.32) during the early-to-mid luteal phase. Although most parameters of the spirometry results did not change during the menstrual cycle, the correlations observed between sexual hormones and respiratory control variables suggest a positive influence of sexual female hormones controlling the thoracic pump muscles in the luteal phase

Characteristics of the biological cycle of lutzomyia evandroi Costa Lima & Antunes, 1936 (diptera: psychodidae) under experimental conditions

XIMENES, Maria de Fátima Freire de Melo; MACIEL, Janaína Cunha; JERONIMO, Selma Maria Bezerra. Characteristics of the Biological Cycle of Lutzomyia evandroi Costa Lima & Antunes, 1936 (diptera: psychodidae) under experimental conditions. Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, v.96, n.6, p.883-886, ago. 2001. Disponivel em: Acesso em: 4 out. 2010.

Ecologia alimentar e reprodutiva da piaba-do-rabo-amarelo, Astyanax cf. lacustris (Reinhardt, 1874) (Osteichthyes: Characidae) na Lagoa do Piató, Assu, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

The feeding habits and biological aspects of the reproductive cycle of two-spot astyanax, Astyanax cf. lacustris (Reinhardt, 1874) were investigated. Fish samples were captured on a monthly basis, using gillnets of 4 cm mesh size, from the Piató Lake, Assu, Rio Grande do Norte, during the period of September, 2006 to August, 2007. Physico-chemical parameters, such as, temperature, electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen of the lake were registered. The monthly values of rainfall also were obtained. The 360 individuals captured, were measured, weighed, dissected, and stomach weight and the stage of gonadal maturity were registered. The stomach contents analyses were carried out based on volumetric method, points, frequency of occurrence and applying the Index of Relative Importance. The degrees of repletion of the stomachs were determined besides the Index of Repletion relating to feeding activity variations and frequency of ingestion with limnological parameters and rainfall. The food items identified were separated into distinct groups according to their origin. Sex ratio and Gonadosomatic Relation of females were verified to determine the spawning period and fecundity. The physico-chemical parameters presented the following annual mean values: temperature = 28.8ºC, electrical conductivity = 992.5 µS.cm-1; dissolved oxygen = 4.9 mg.L-1 during the study period. The annual mean of the rainfall was 63.5 mm. The results indicate that this species present an omnivorous feeding habit with a tendency towards insectivory, with an increase in feeding activity during the dry season. The aquatic oxygen to interfere very importance in the feeding activity than the others factors physico-chemicals of water and rainfall. There was a predominance of females, with a sex proportion of 1M:7F. The macroscopic characteristics of the ovaries and testicles revealed four stages of gonadal development: immature, maturing, mature and spent. A temporal variation was observed for the gonadal development of males and females. There was reproductive activity through out the year, with peaks in the months of February, April and June to correspond with the rain of precipitation of the region. The mean fecundity was 7.681 mature oocytes, varying from 4.476 to 12.036, with mean of 7.681. There was positive relation between fecundity and body mass. Condition Factor is not an efficient indicator of the reproductive period of this species. The species A. cf. lacustris is an opportunist and is well adapted to the conditions of the semi-arid Caatinga Biome

Ingestion rates of Artemia nauplii for different larval stages of Macrobrachium rosenbergii

The functional response between ingestion rate and food concentration was determined for each larval stage of Macrobrachium rosenbergii. Artemia franciscana nauplii were supplied at 2,4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 per milliliter. The nauplii were counted by sight using a Pasteur pipette and transferred to Petri dishes containing 40 ml of brackish water (12 parts per thousand) lying on the top of black plastic. One larva at each stage was individually placed into each Petri dish containing different food density. After 24 h, each larva was removed from the Petri dish and the leftover nauplii were counted. The amount consumed was determined by the difference between the initial and final number of nauplii. Ingestion rate (I) increased as food density (P) increased and was defined by the model I=I-m(1-e(-kP)). The results suggest four levels of ingestion during larval development. The first level includes stages II, III and IV, with average maximum consumption of about 40 nauplii/day; the second level includes stages V and VI, with consumption of approximately 55 nauplii/day; the third level includes stages VII and VIII, with consumption of 80-100 nauplii/day. The fourth level includes stages IX, X and XI, in which the high values for maximum ingestion (Im) exceed the load capacity of the medium. The low values for constant k (that may correspond to the adaptability of the food to prey characteristics, such as, size, mobility, etc.) obtained for stages IX, X and XI indicated that Artemia is not an adequate prey and there is necessity of a supplementary diet. The best relationship between predator and prey seemed to occur during stage IV Results obtained in the present work may subsidize future researches and serve as a guideline for practical considerations of feeding rates. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.