Bayesian model averaging and identification of structural breaks in time series

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used for testing for multiple break points in univariate series using conjugate normal-gamma priors. This approach can test for the number of structural breaks and produce posterior probabilities for a break at each point in time. Results are averaged over specifications including: stationary; stationary around trend and unit root models, each containing different types and number of breaks and different lag lengths. The procedures are used to test for structural breaks on 14 annual macroeconomic series and 11 natural resource price series. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in all of the natural resource series and most of the macroeconomic series. Many of the series had multiple breaks. Our findings regarding the existence of unit roots, having allowed for structural breaks in the data, are largely consistent with previous work.

Neural networks for identification of nonlinear systems under random piecewise polynomial disturbances

The problem of identification of a nonlinear dynamic system is considered. A two-layer neural network is used for the solution of the problem. Systems disturbed with unmeasurable noise are considered, although it is known that the disturbance is a random piecewise polynomial process. Absorption polynomials and nonquadratic loss functions are used to reduce the effect of this disturbance on the estimates of the optimal memory of the neural-network model.

Identification of linear systems in the presence of piecewise polynomial disturbances

The paper proposes a method of performing system identification of a linear system in the presence of bounded disturbances. The disturbances may be piecewise parabolic or periodic functions. The method is demonstrated effectively on two example systems with a range of disturbances.

Linear-wavelet models applied to the identification of a two-link manipulator

This paper shows that a wavelet network and a linear term can be advantageously combined for the purpose of non linear system identification. The theoretical foundation of this approach is laid by proving that radial wavelets are orthogonal to linear functions. A constructive procedure for building such nonlinear regression structures, termed linear-wavelet models, is described. For illustration, sim ulation data are used to identify a model for a two-link robotic manipulator. The results show that the introduction of wavelets does improve the prediction ability of a linear model.

Identification of nonlinear systems with a dynamic recurrent neural network

Two approaches are presented to calculate the weights for a Dynamic Recurrent Neural Network (DRNN) in order to identify the input-output dynamics of a class of nonlinear systems. The number of states of the identified network is constrained to be the same as the number of states of the plant.

Identification of potential mechanisms of toxicity after di-(2-ethylhexyl)-phthalate (DEHP) adult exposure in the liver using a systems biology approach

Phthalates are industrial additives widely used as plasticizers. In addition to deleterious effects on male genital development, population studies have documented correlations between phthalates exposure and impacts on reproductive tract development and on the metabolic syndrome in male adults. In this work we investigated potential mechanisms underlying the impact of DEHP on adult mouse liver in vivo. A parallel analysis of hepatic transcript and metabolic profiles from adult mice exposed to varying DEHP doses was performed. Hepatic genes modulated by DEHP are predominantly PPARalpha targets. However, the induction of prototypic cytochrome P450 genes strongly supports the activation of additional NR pathways, including Constitutive Androstane Receptor (CAR). Integration of transcriptomic and metabonomic profiles revealed a correlation between the impacts of DEHP on genes and metabolites related to heme synthesis and to the Rev-erbalpha pathway that senses endogenous heme level. We further confirmed the combined impact of DEHP on the hepatic expression of Alas1, a critical enzyme in heme synthesis and on the expression of Rev-erbalpha target genes involved in the cellular clock and in energy metabolism. This work shows that DEHP interferes with hepatic CAR and Rev-erbalpha pathways which are both involved in the control of metabolism. The identification of these new hepatic pathways targeted by DEHP could contribute to metabolic and endocrine disruption associated with phthalate exposure. Gene expression profiles performed on microdissected testis territories displayed a differential responsiveness to DEHP. Altogether, this suggests that impacts of DEHP on adult organs, including testis, could be documented and deserve further investigations.

Detection and identification of species-specific bacteria associated with synanthropic mites

Internal bacterial communities of synanthropic mites Acarus siro, Dermatophagoides farinae, Lepidoglyphus destructor, and Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Acari: Astigmata) were analyzed by culturing and culture-independent approaches from specimens obtained from laboratory colonies. Homogenates of surface-sterilized mites were used for cultivation on non-selective agar and DNA extraction. Isolated bacteria were identified by sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. PCR amplified 16S rRNA genes were analyzed by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (T-RFLP) and cloning sequencing. Fluorescence in situ hybridization using universal bacterial probes was used for direct bacterial localization. T-RFLP analysis of 16S rRNA gene revealed distinct species-specific bacterial communities. The results were further confirmed by cloning and sequencing (284 clones). L. destructor and D. farinae showed more diverse communities then A. siro and T. putrescentiae. In the cultivated part of the community, the mean CFUs from four mite species ranged from 5.2 × 102 to 1.4 × 103 per mite. D. farinae had significantly higher CFUs than the other species. Bacteria were located in the digestive and reproductive tract, parenchymatical tissue, and in bacteriocytes. Among the clones, Bartonella-like bacteria occurring in A. siro and T. putresecentiae represented a distinct group related to Bartonellaceae and to Bartonella-like symbionts of ants. The clones of high similarity to Xenorhabdus cabanillasii were found in L. destructor and D. farinae, and one clone related to Photorhabdus temperata in A. siro. Members of Sphingobacteriales cloned from D. farinae and A. siro clustered with the sequences of “Candidatus Cardinium hertigii” and as a separate novel cluster.

Identification of metabolites in human hepatic bile using 800 MHz 1H NMR spectroscopy, HPLC-NMR/MS and UPLC-MS

The first application of high field NMR spectroscopy (800 MHz for 1H observation) to human hepatic bile (as opposed to gall bladder bile) is reported. The bile sample used for detailed investigation was from a donor liver with mild fat infiltration, collected during organ retrieval prior to transplantation. In addition, to focus on the detection of bile acids in particular, a bile extract was analysed by 800 MHz 1H NMR spectroscopy, HPLC-NMR/MS and UPLC-MS. In the whole bile sample, 40 compounds have been assigned with the aid of two-dimensional 1H–1H TOCSY and 1H–13C HSQC spectra. These include phosphatidylcholine, 14 amino acids, 10 organic acids, 4 carbohydrates and polyols (glucose, glucuronate, glycerol and myo-inositol), choline, phosphocholine, betaine, trimethylamine-N-oxide and other small molecules. An initial NMR-based assessment of the concentration range of some key metabolites has been made. Some observed chemical shifts differ from expected database values, probably due to a difference in bulk diamagnetic susceptibility. The NMR spectra of the whole extract gave identification of the major bile acids (cholic, deoxycholic and chenodeoxycholic), but the glycine and taurine conjugates of a given bile acid could not be distinguished. However, this was achieved by HPLC-NMR/MS, which enabled the separation and identification of ten conjugated bile acids with relative abundances varying from approximately 0.1% (taurolithocholic acid) to 34.0% (glycocholic acid), of which, only the five most abundant acids could be detected by NMR, including the isomers glycodeoxycholic acid and glycochenodeoxycholic acid, which are difficult to distinguish by conventional LC-MS analysis. In a separate experiment, the use of UPLC-MS allowed the detection and identification of 13 bile acids. This work has shown the complementary potential of NMR spectroscopy, MS and hyphenated NMR/MS for elucidating the complex metabolic profile of human hepatic bile. This will be useful baseline information in ongoing studies of liver excretory function and organ transplantation.

System identification of Wiener systems with B-spline functions using De Boor recursion

In this article a simple and effective algorithm is introduced for the system identification of the Wiener system using observational input/output data. The nonlinear static function in the Wiener system is modelled using a B-spline neural network. The Gauss–Newton algorithm is combined with De Boor algorithm (both curve and the first order derivatives) for the parameter estimation of the Wiener model, together with the use of a parameter initialisation scheme. Numerical examples are utilised to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Identification of genetic and phenotypic differences associated with prevalent and non-prevalent Salmonella Enteritidis phage types: analysis of variation in amino acid transport

In this study, differences at the genetic level of 37 Salmonella Enteritidis strains from five phage types (PTs) were compared using comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) to assess differences between PTs. There were approximately 400 genes that differentiated prevalent (4, 6, 8 and 13a) and sporadic (11) PTs, of which 35 were unique to prevalent PTs, including six plasmid-borne genes, pefA, B, C, D, srgC and rck, and four chromosomal genes encoding putative amino acid transporters. Phenotype array studies also demonstrated that strains from prevalent PTs were less susceptible to urea stress and utilized L-histidine, L-glutamine, L-proline, L-aspartic acid, gly-asn and gly-gln more efficiently than PT11 strains. Complementation of a PT11 strain with the transporter genes from PT4 resulted in a significant increase in utilization of the amino acids and reduced susceptibility to urea stress. In epithelial cell association assays, PT11 strains were less invasive than other prevalent PTs. Most strains from prevalent PTs were better biofilm formers at 37 degrees C than at 28 degrees C, whilst the converse was true for PT11 strains. Collectively, the results indicate that genetic and corresponding phenotypic differences exist between strains of the prevalent PTs 4, 6, 8 and 13a and non-prevalent PT11 strains that are likely to provide a selective advantage for strains from the former PTs and could help them to enter the food chain and cause salmonellosis.

Genetic diversity among Escherichia coli O157 : H7 isolates and identification of genes linked to human infections

An Escherichia coli oligonucleotide microarray based on three sequenced genomes was validated for comparative genomic microarray hybridization and used to study the diversity of E. coli O157 isolates from human infections and food and animal sources. Among 26 test strains, 24 (including both Shiga toxin [Stx]-positive and -negative strains) were found to be related to the two sequenced E. coli O157:117 strains, EDL933 and Sakai. However, these strains showed much greater genetic diversity than those reported previously, and most of them could not be categorized as either lineage I or H. Some genes were found more often in isolates from human than from nonhuman sources; e.g., ECs1202 and ECs2976, associated with stx2AB and stx1AB, were in all isolates from human sources but in only 40% of those from nonhuman sources. Some (but not all) lineage I-specific or -dominant genes were also more frequently associated with isolates from human. The results suggested that it might be more effective to concentrate our efforts on finding markers that are directly related to infection rather than those specific to certain lineages. In addition, two Stx-negative O157 cattle isolates (one confirmed to be 117) were significantly different from other Stx-positive and -negative E. coli O157:117 strains and were more similar to MG1655 in their gene content. This work demonstrates that not all E. coli O157:117 strains belong to the same clonal group, and those that were similar to E. coli K-12 might be less virulent.

Development of a miniaturised microarray-based assay for the rapid identification of antimicrobial resistance genes in Gram-negative bacteria

We describe the development of a miniaturised microarray for the detection of antimicrobial resistance genes in Gram-negative bacteria. Included on the array are genes encoding resistance to aminoglycosides, trimethoprim, sulphonamides, tetracyclines and beta-lactams, including extended-spectrum beta-lactamases. Validation of the array with control strains demonstrated a 99% correlation between polymerase chain reaction and array results. There was also good correlation between phenotypic and genotypic results for a large panel of Escherichia coli and Salmonella isolates. Some differences were also seen in the number and type of resistance genes harboured by E. coli and Salmonella strains. The array provides an effective, fast and simple method for detection of resistance genes in clinical isolates suitable for use in diagnostic laboratories, which in future will help to understand the epidemiology of isolates and to detect gene linkage in bacterial populations. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy.

Cognitive, affective and behavioural characteristics of mothers with anxiety disorders in the context of child anxiety disorder

Parental emotional distress, particularly high maternal anxiety, is one of the most consistent predictors of child anxiety treatment outcome. In order to identify the cognitive, affective and behavioural parenting characteristics of mothers of children with anxiety disorders who themselves have an anxiety disorder, we assessed the expectations and appraisals of 88 mothers of anxious children (44 not anxious (NONANX) and 44 with a current anxiety disorder (ANX)) before and after interacting with their 7-12 year old children. There were no observed differences in anxiety and avoidance among children of ANX and NONANX mothers, but, compared to NONANX mothers, ANX mothers held more negative expectations and differed on observations of intrusiveness, expressed anxiety, warmth and the quality of the relationship. Associations were moderated by the degree to which children expressed anxiety during the tasks. Maternal reported negative emotions during the task significantly mediated the association between maternal anxiety status and the observed quality of the relationship. These findings suggest that maternal anxiety disorder is associated with reduced tolerance of children’s negative emotions. This may interfere with the maintenance of a positive, supportive mother-child interaction under conditions of stress, and as such impede optimum treatment outcomes. The findings identify potential cognitive, affective and behavioural targets to improve treatment outcomes for children with anxiety disorders in the context of a current maternal anxiety disorder.

Identification of components of the Sigma B Regulon in Listeria monocytogenes that contribute to acid and salt tolerance

Sigma B (σB) is an alternative sigma factor that controls the transcriptional response to stress in Listeria monocytogenes and is also known to play a role in the virulence of this human pathogen. In the present study we investigated the impact of a sigB deletion on the proteome of L. monocytogenes grown in a chemically defined medium both in the presence and in the absence of osmotic stress (0.5 M NaCl). Two new phenotypes associated with the sigB deletion were identified using this medium. (i) Unexpectedly, the strain with the ΔsigB deletion was found to grow faster than the parent strain in the growth medium, but only when 0.5 M NaCl was present. This phenomenon was independent of the carbon source provided in the medium. (ii) The ΔsigB mutant was found to have unusual Gram staining properties compared to the parent, suggesting that σB contributes to the maintenance of an intact cell wall. A proteomic analysis was performed by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, using cells growing in the exponential and stationary phases. Overall, 11 proteins were found to be differentially expressed in the wild type and the ΔsigB mutant; 10 of these proteins were expressed at lower levels in the mutant, and 1 was overexpressed in the mutant. All 11 proteins were identified by tandem mass spectrometry, and putative functions were assigned based on homology to proteins from other bacteria. Five proteins had putative functions related to carbon utilization (Lmo0539, Lmo0783, Lmo0913, Lmo1830, and Lmo2696), while three proteins were similar to proteins whose functions are unknown but that are known to be stress inducible (Lmo0796, Lmo2391, and Lmo2748). To gain further insight into the role of σB in L. monocytogenes, we deleted the genes encoding four of the proteins, lmo0796, lmo0913, lmo2391, and lmo2748. Phenotypic characterization of the mutants revealed that Lmo2748 plays a role in osmotolerance, while Lmo0796, Lmo0913, and Lmo2391 were all implicated in acid stress tolerance to various degrees. Invasion assays performed with Caco-2 cells indicated that none of the four genes was required for mammalian cell invasion. Microscopic analysis suggested that loss of Lmo2748 might contribute to the cell wall defect observed in the ΔsigB mutant. Overall, this study highlighted two new phenotypes associated with the loss of σB. It also demonstrated clear roles for σB in both osmotic and low-pH stress tolerance and identified specific components of the σB regulon that contribute to the responses observed.