Supply Multipliers in Two Regional Economies

This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic impact that sectorial total factor productivity – or valued added - gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular it is studied the quantitative effect that each sector’s valued added injections has on household welfare (real disposable income), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government and foreign net income. To do that, we introduce the concept of supply multiplier. The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which it is assumed perfect competition and cleared markets of goods and factors. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow identifying those sectors with the greatest multipliers impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: efficiency gains, supply multipliers, key sectors, computable general equilibrium. JEL Classification: C68, R13.

The association between cigarettes smoking, cannabis use and alcohol consumption in a population of young men: results of a population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is often initiated at a young age as well as other risky behaviors such as alcohol drinking, cannabis and other illicit drugs use. Some studies suggest that cigarette smoking may have an influence on other risky behaviors but little is known about the chronology of occurrence of those different habits. The aim of this study was to assess, by young men, what were the other risky behaviors associated with cigarette smoking and the joint prevalence and chronology of occurrence of those risky behaviors. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of a population-based census of 3526 young men attending the recruitment for the Swiss army, aged between 17 and 25 years old (mean age: 19 years old), who filled a self reported questionnaire about their alcohol, cigarettes, cannabis and other illicit drugs habits. Actual smoking was defined as either regular smoking (¡Ý1 cigarette/day, on every day) or occasional smoking, binge drinking as six or more drinks at least twice a month, at risk drinking as 21 drinks or more per week, recent cannabis use as cannabis consumption at least once during the last month, and use of illicit drugs as consumption once or more of illicit drugs other than cannabis. Age at begin was defined as age at first use of cannabis or cigarette smoking. RESULTS: In this population of young men, the prevalence of actual smoking was 51.2% (36.5% regular smoking, 14.6% occasionnal smoking). Two third of participamnts (60.1%) declared that they ever used cannabis, 25.2% reported a recent use of cannabis. 53.8% of participants had a risky alcohol consumption considered as either binge or at risk drinking. Cigarette smoking was significantly associated with recent cannabis use (Odds Ratio (OR): 3.85, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.10- 4.77), binge drinking (OR: 3.48, 95% CI: 3.03-4.00), at risk alcohol drinking (OR: 4.04, 95% CI: 3.12-5.24), and ever use of illicit drugs (OR: 4.34, 95% CI: 3.54-5.31). In a multivariate logistic regression, odds ratios for smoking were increased for cannabis users (OR 3.10,, 95% CI: 2.48-3.88), binge drinkers (OR: 1.77, 95% CI: 1.44-2.17), at risk alcohol drinkers (OR 2.26, 95% CI: 1.52-3.36) and ever users of illicit drugs (OR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.20-2.03). The majority of young men (57.3%) initiated smoking before cannabis and mean age at onset was 13.4 years old, whereas only 11.1% began to use cannabis before smoking cigarettes and mean age at onset was slightly older (14.4 years old). 31.6% started both cannabis and tobacco at the same age (15 years old). About a third of participants (30.5%) did have a cluster of risky behaviours (smoking, at risk drinking, cannabis use) and 11.0% did cumulate smoking, drinking, cannabis and ever use of illegal drugs. More than half of the smokers (59.6%) did cumulate cannabis use and at risk alcohol drinking whereas only 18.5% of non-smokers did. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of young smokers initiated their risky behaviors by first smoking and then by other psychoactive drugs. Smokers have an increased risk to present other risky behaviors such as cannabis use, at risk alcohol consumtion and illicit drug use compared to nonsmokers. Prevention by young male adults should focus on smoking and also integrate interventions on other risky behaviors.

A Structural Analysis of the Health Expenditures and Portfolio Choices of Retired Agents

Richer and healthier agents tend to hold riskier portfolios and spend proportionally less on health expenditures. Potential explanations include health and wealth effects on preferences, expected longevity or disposable total wealth. Using HRS data, we perform a structural estimation of a dynamic model of consumption, portfolio and health expenditure choices with recursive utility, as well as health-dependent income and mortality risk. Our estimates of the deep parameters highlight the importance of health capital, mortality risk control, convex health and mortality adjustment costs and binding liquidity constraints to rationalize the stylized facts. They also provide new perspectives on expected longevity and on the values of life and health.

Rice Consumption in the United States: New Evidence from Food Consumption Surveys, July 2005

Evidence from recent U.S. food consumption surveys provides new information on the distribution of rice consumption, the characteristics of rice consumers, and the diets of people who consume rice. Recently available data from nationally representative surveys of food consumed by individuals in the United States allowed comparison of consumption today (2001-02) with consumption in the mid-1990s. Data come from the Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (1994-96) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2001-02). Rice is consumed by a significant portion of the U.S. adult population. In 2001-02, over 18 percent (18.2 percent) of adults reported eating at least half a serving of white or brown rice in one day of observed intake. This share was slightly higher than that of 1994-96 (17.4 percent). Compared with others, individuals who consumed at least half a serving of white or brown rice in the observed day of intake consumed a smaller share of calories per day from fat and saturated fat; less discretionary fat or added sugar; and more fiber, dietary folate, fruit, vegetables, and enriched grains. Consumers eating rice were more likely to eat a diet that included choices of foods consistent with the 2005 U.S. Dietary Guidelines.

Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan, August 2005

We explore and investigate Japanese dairy markets. We first provide an overview of consumer demand and how it evolved after World War II. Using historical data and econometric estimates of Japanese dairy demand, we identify economic, cultural, and demographic forces that have been shaping consumption patterns. Then we summarize the characteristics of Japanese milk production and dairy processing and policies affecting them. We next describe the import regime and trade flows in dairy products. The analysis of the regulatory system of the dairy sector shows how its incentive structure affects the long-term prospects of various segments of the industry. The paper concludes with policy recommendations of how to reform the Japanese dairy sector.

Lithuania’s Food Demand During Economic Transition, January 2000

The linear approximate version of the AIDS model is estimated using data from the Lithuanian household budget survey covering the period from July 1992 to December 1994. Price and real expenditure elasticities for twelve food groups were estimated based on the estimated coefficients of the model. Very little or nothing is known about the demand parameters of Lithuania and other former socialist countries, so the results are of intrinsic interest. Estimated expenditure elasticities were positive and statistically significant for all food groups while all own-price elasticities were negative and statistically significant, except for that of eggs which was insignificant. Results suggest that Lithuanian household consumption did respond to price and real income changes during their transition to a market-oriented economy.

Farm-Level Analysis of Risk Management Proposals, March 2000

This paper presents a detailed report of the representative farm analysis (summarized in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #01-00). At the request of several members of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry of the U.S. Senate, we have continued to analyze the impacts of the Farmers’ Risk Management Act of 1999 (S. 1666) and the Risk Management for the 21st Century Act (S. 1580). Earlier analysis reported in FAPRI Policy Working Paper #04-99 concentrated on the aggregate net farm income and government outlay impacts. The representative farm analysis is conducted for several types of farms, including both irrigated and non-irrigated cotton farms in Tom Green County, Texas; dryland wheat farms in Morton County, North Dakota and Sumner County, Kansas; and a corn farm in Webster County, Iowa. We consider additional factors that may shed light on the differential impacts of the two plans. 1. Farm-level income impacts under alternative weather scenarios. 2. Additional indirect impacts, such as a change in ability to obtain financing. 3. Implications of within-year price shocks. Our results indicate that farmers who buy crop insurance will increase their coverage levels under S. 1580. Farmers with high yield risk find that the 65 percent coverage level maximizes expected returns, but some who feel that they obtain other benefits from higher coverage will find that the S. 1580 subsidy schedule significantly lowers the cost of obtaining the additional coverage. Farmers with lower yield risk find that the increased indemnities from additional coverage will more than offset the increase in producer premium. In addition, because S. 1580 extends its increased premium subsidy percentages to revenue insurance products, farmers will have an increased incentive to buy revenue insurance. Differences in the ancillary benefits from crop insurance under the baseline and S. 1580 would be driven by the increase in insurance participation and buy-up. Given the same levels of insurance participation and buy-up, the ancillary benefits under the two scenarios would be the same.

Smoking and adolescence: Exploring tobacco consumption and related attitudes in three different age groups in Switzerland

The present study constitutes an investigation of tobacco consumption, related attitudes and individual differences in smoking or non-smoking behaviors in a sample of adolescents of different ages in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. We investigated three school-age groups (7th-grade, 9th-grade, and the second-year of high school) for differences in attitude and social and cognitive dimensions. We present both descriptive and inferential statistics. On an inferential level, we present a binary logistic regression-based model predicting risk of smoking. The resulting model most importantly suggests a strong relationship between smoking and alcohol consumption (both regular and sporadic). We interpret this result in terms of both the impact of the actual campaigns and the cognitive processes associated with adolescence.

Government and the distribution of skills

Individuals' life chances in the future will very much depend on how we invest in our children now. An optimal human capital model would combine a high mean with minimal variance of skills. It is well-established that early childhood learning is key to adult success. The impact of social origins on child outcomes remains strong, and the new role of women poses additional challenges to our conventional nurturing approach to child development. This paper focuses on skill development in the early years, examining how we might best combine family inputs and public policy to invest optimally in our future human capital. I emphasize three issues: one, the uneven capacity of parents to invest in children; two, the impact of mothers' employment on child outcomes; and three, the potential benefits of early pre-school programmes. I conclude that mothers' intra-family bargaining power is decisive for family investments and that universal child care is key if our goal is to arrive at a strong mean with minimal variance.

Voluntary alcohol consumption is controlled via the neuropeptide Y Y1 receptor.

We have shown previously that voluntary ethanol consumption and resistance to ethanol-induced sedation are inversely related to neuropeptide Y (NPY) levels in NPY-knock-out (NPY(-/-)) and NPY-overexpressing mice. In the present report, we studied knock-out mice completely lacking the NPY Y1 receptor (Y1(-/-)) to further characterize the role of the NPY system in ethanol consumption and neurobiological responses to this drug. Here we report that male Y1(-/-) mice showed increased consumption of solutions containing 3, 6, and 10% (v/v) ethanol when compared with wild-type (Y1(+/+)) control mice. Female Y1(-/-) mice showed increased consumption of a 10% ethanol solution. In contrast, Y1(-/-) mice showed normal consumption of solutions containing either sucrose or quinine. Relative to Y1(+/+) mice, male Y1(-/-) mice were found to be less sensitive to the sedative effects of 3.5 and 4.0 gm/kg ethanol as measured by more rapid recovery from ethanol-induced sleep, although plasma ethanol levels did not differ significantly between the genotypes. Finally, male Y1(-/-) mice showed normal ethanol-induced ataxia on the rotarod test after administration of a 2.5 gm/kg dose. These data suggest that the NPY Y1 receptor regulates voluntary ethanol consumption and some of the intoxicating effects caused by administration of ethanol.

State Government E-Commerce Study Encouraging the Use of Electronic Financial Transactions With the Citizens of Iowa, January 20, 2006

This report was produced in compliance the 2005 Iowa Acts, Chapter 52 passed by the Eighty-First General Assembly, Session One (2005), requiring that it be submitted to the General Assembly by January 20, 2006. The legislative language mandating the report reads as follows: “It is the intent of the general assembly to encourage the use of electronic transactions with regard to the state's dealings with the citizens of Iowa and other persons. The department of administrative services shall develop recommendations, including proposed legislation, to encourage the use of electronic commerce, including the acceptance of credit card payments, with regard to transactions involving the state. The department shall consult with the state treasurer, state entities currently accepting credit card payments, and any other state entities identified as considering the acceptance of credit card payments when developing the recommendations. The department shall deliver a report to the general assembly by January 20, 2006, including any recommendations, proposed legislation, and other related information, including cost information associated with credit card payments.”