Facial affect processing inbipolar disorder:a magnetoencephalography study

Background: Identifying biological markers to aid diagnosis of bipolar disorder (BD) is critically important. To be considered a possible biological marker, neural patterns in BD should be discriminant from those in healthy individuals (HI). We examined patterns of neuromagnetic responses revealed by magnetoencephalography (MEG) during implicit emotion-processing using emotional (happy, fearful, sad) and neutral facial expressions, in sixteen BD and sixteen age- and gender-matched healthy individuals. Methods: Neuromagnetic data were recorded using a 306-channel whole-head MEG ELEKTA Neuromag System, and preprocessed using Signal Space Separation as implemented in MaxFilter (ELEKTA). Custom Matlab programs removed EOG and ECG signals from filtered MEG data, and computed means of epoched data (0-250ms, 250-500ms, 500-750ms). A generalized linear model with three factors (individual, emotion intensity and time) compared BD and HI. A principal component analysis of normalized mean channel data in selected brain regions identified principal components that explained 95% of data variation. These components were used in a quadratic support vector machine (SVM) pattern classifier. SVM classifier performance was assessed using the leave-one-out approach. Results: BD and HI showed significantly different patterns of activation for 0-250ms within both left occipital and temporal regions, specifically for neutral facial expressions. PCA analysis revealed significant differences between BD and HI for mild fearful, happy, and sad facial expressions within 250-500ms. SVM quadratic classifier showed greatest accuracy (84%) and sensitivity (92%) for neutral faces, in left occipital regions within 500-750ms. Conclusions: MEG responses may be used in the search for disease specific neural markers.

Constraint-force-based approach of modelling compliant mechanisms: principle and application

Numerous works have been conducted on modelling basic compliant elements such as wire beams, and closed-form analytical models of most basic compliant elements have been well developed. However, the modelling of complex compliant mechanisms is still a challenging work. This paper proposes a constraint-force-based (CFB) modelling approach to model compliant mechanisms with a particular emphasis on modelling complex compliant mechanisms. The proposed CFB modelling approach can be regarded as an improved free-body- diagram (FBD) based modelling approach, and can be extended to a development of the screw-theory-based design approach. A compliant mechanism can be decomposed into rigid stages and compliant modules. A compliant module can offer elastic forces due to its deformation. Such elastic forces are regarded as variable constraint forces in the CFB modelling approach. Additionally, the CFB modelling approach defines external forces applied on a compliant mechanism as constant constraint forces. If a compliant mechanism is at static equilibrium, all the rigid stages are also at static equilibrium under the influence of the variable and constant constraint forces. Therefore, the constraint force equilibrium equations for all the rigid stages can be obtained, and the analytical model of the compliant mechanism can be derived based on the constraint force equilibrium equations. The CFB modelling approach can model a compliant mechanism linearly and nonlinearly, can obtain displacements of any points of the rigid stages, and allows external forces to be exerted on any positions of the rigid stages. Compared with the FBD based modelling approach, the CFB modelling approach does not need to identify the possible deformed configuration of a complex compliant mechanism to obtain the geometric compatibility conditions and the force equilibrium equations. Additionally, the mathematical expressions in the CFB approach have an easily understood physical meaning. Using the CFB modelling approach, the variable constraint forces of three compliant modules, a wire beam, a four-beam compliant module and an eight-beam compliant module, have been derived in this paper. Based on these variable constraint forces, the linear and non-linear models of a decoupled XYZ compliant parallel mechanism are derived, and verified by FEA simulations and experimental tests.

n-alkane carbon isotope ratios in plants and recent lake sediments from Cameroon

Trees and shrubs in tropical Africa use the C3 cycle as a carbon fixation pathway during photosynthesis, while grasses and sedges mostly use the C4 cycle. Leaf-wax lipids from sedimentary archives such as the long-chain n-alkanes (e.g., n-C27 to n-C33) inherit carbon isotope ratios that are representative of the carbon fixation pathway. Therefore, n-alkane d13C values are often used to reconstruct past C3/C4 composition of vegetation, assuming that the relative proportions of C3 and C4 leaf waxes reflect the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plants. We have compared the d13C values of n-alkanes from modern C3 and C4 plants with previously published values from recent lake sediments and provide a framework for estimating the fractional contribution (areal-based) of C3 vegetation cover (fC3) represented by these sedimentary archives. Samples were collected in Cameroon, across a latitudinal transect that accommodates a wide range of climate zones and vegetation types, as reflected in the progressive northward replacement of C3-dominated rain forest by C4-dominated savanna. The C3 plants analysed were characterised by substantially higher abundances of n-C29 alkanes and by substantially lower abundances of n-C33 alkanes than the C4 plants. Furthermore, the sedimentary d13C values of n-C29 and n-C31 alkanes from recent lake sediments in Cameroon (-37.4 per mil to -26.5 per mil) were generally within the range of d13C values for C3 plants, even when from sites where C4 plants dominated the catchment vegetation. In such cases simple linear mixing models fail to accurately reconstruct the relative proportions of C3 and C4 vegetation cover when using the d13C values of sedimentary n-alkanes, overestimating the proportion of C3 vegetation, likely as a consequence of the differences in plant wax production, preservation, transport, and/or deposition between C3 and C4 plants. We therefore tested a set of non-linear binary mixing models using d13C values from both C3 and C4 vegetation as end-members. The non-linear models included a sigmoid function (sine-squared) that describes small variations in the fC3 values as the minimum and maximum d13C values are approached, and a hyperbolic function that takes into account the differences between C3 and C4 plants discussed above. Model fitting and the estimation of uncertainties were completed using the Monte Carlo algorithm and can be improved by future data addition. Models that provided the best fit with the observed d13C values of sedimentary n-alkanes were either hyperbolic functions or a combination of hyperbolic and sine-squared functions. Such non-linear models may be used to convert d13C measurements on sedimentary n-alkanes directly into reconstructions of C3 vegetation cover.

Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas

European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years1. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change2, 3. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species4, 5, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.

Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas

European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years1. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change2, 3. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species4, 5, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.

Efeitos dos fatores ambientais na comunidade de macrófitas em pequenos cursos lóticos perenes subtropicais

Neste estudo foi investigado como a distribuição das espécies e a produção de biomassa de macrófitas aquáticas são influenciadas pelas condições físico-químicas do ambiente. Também foi avaliado como uma espécie com maior potencial competitivo pode interferir na diversidade de espécies da comunidade macrofítica. Para tanto, em cada um dos três arroios, foram dispostos seis transecções, perpendiculares à margem. Em cada transecção foram demarcadas três unidades amostrais de 1m², nas quais foram registrados os parâmetros fitossociológicos cobertura e frequência relativas e valor de importância. A diversidade de espécies foi estimada pelo índice de Shannon, utilizando os valores de cobertura de espécies. Para determinar a biomassa das macrófitas aquáticas foram usados quadrats de 0,25m², alocados dentro da unidade amostral de 1m² usadas para quantificar os dados fitossociológicos, nos mesmos pontos onde foi feito o levantamento de cobertura da vegetação. Utilizamos como variáveis preditoras a velocidade da corrente, radiação solar incidente, coeficiente de sombreamento, vegetação ripária arbórea adjacente, nitrogênio orgânico dissolvido, carbono orgânico dissolvido e condutividade elétrica. Foram registradas 32 espécies de macrófitas aquáticas, distribuídas em 19 famílias e 28 gêneros. Conforme Análise de Correspondência Canônica (CCA), as espécies com maiores valores de biomassa foram relacionadas a unidades amostrais com alta incidência luminosa. As unidades amostrais com dominância de Pistia stratiotes apresentaram menor diversidade de espécies indicando que esta espécie, quando encontra condições que permitam sua proliferação, pode excluir espécies de menor potencial competitivo. De acordo com GLM (Generalized Linear Model), a ausência de vegetação ripária ou presente em apenas uma das margens e baixas velocidades de corrente configura-se em condições favoráveis ao estabelecimento e desenvolvimento de macrófitas aquáticas, possibilitando produção maiores valores de biomassa.

Estimates of genetic parameters for growth and wood properties in Eucalyptus pellita F. Muell. to support tree breeding in Vietnam

Eucalyptus pellita demonstrated good growth and wood quality traits in this study, with young plantation grown timber being suitable for both solid and pulp wood products. All traits examined were under moderate levels of genetic control with little genotype by environment interaction when grown on two contrasting sites in Vietnam. Eucalyptus pellita currently has a significant role in reforestation in the tropics. Research to support expanded of use of this species is needed: particularly, research to better understand the genetic control of key traits will facilitate the development of genetically improved planting stock. This study aimed to provide estimates of the heritability of diameter at breast height over bark, wood basic density, Kraft pulp yield, modulus of elasticity and microfibril angle, and the genetic correlations among these traits, and understand the importance of genotype by environment interactions in Vietnam. Data for diameter and wood properties were collected from two 10-year-old, open-pollinated progeny trials of E. pellita in Vietnam that evaluated 104 families from six native range and three orchard sources. Wood properties were estimated from wood samples using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Data were analysed using mixed linear models to estimate genetic parameters (heritability, proportion of variance between seed sources and genetic correlations). Variation among the nine sources was small compared to additive variance. Narrow-sense heritability and genetic correlation estimates indicated that simultaneous improvements in most traits could be achieved from selection among and within families as the genetic correlations among traits were either favourable or close to zero. Type B genetic correlations approached one for all traits suggesting that genotype by environment interactions were of little importance. These results support a breeding strategy utilizing a single breeding population advanced by selecting the best individuals across all seed sources. Both growth and wood properties have been evaluated. Multi-trait selection for growth and wood property traits will lead to more productive populations of E. pellita both with improved productivity and improved timber and pulp properties.

Low-power high-performance SAR ADC design with digital calibration techniques

This dissertation presents the design of three high-performance successive-approximation-register (SAR) analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) using distinct digital background calibration techniques under the framework of a generalized code-domain linear equalizer. These digital calibration techniques effectively and efficiently remove the static mismatch errors in the analog-to-digital (A/D) conversion. They enable aggressive scaling of the capacitive digital-to-analog converter (DAC), which also serves as sampling capacitor, to the kT/C limit. As a result, outstanding conversion linearity, high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), high conversion speed, robustness, superb energy efficiency, and minimal chip-area are accomplished simultaneously. The first design is a 12-bit 22.5/45-MS/s SAR ADC in 0.13-μm CMOS process. It employs a perturbation-based calibration based on the superposition property of linear systems to digitally correct the capacitor mismatch error in the weighted DAC. With 3.0-mW power dissipation at a 1.2-V power supply and a 22.5-MS/s sample rate, it achieves a 71.1-dB signal-to-noise-plus-distortion ratio (SNDR), and a 94.6-dB spurious free dynamic range (SFDR). At Nyquist frequency, the conversion figure of merit (FoM) is 50.8 fJ/conversion step, the best FoM up to date (2010) for 12-bit ADCs. The SAR ADC core occupies 0.06 mm2, while the estimated area the calibration circuits is 0.03 mm2. The second proposed digital calibration technique is a bit-wise-correlation-based digital calibration. It utilizes the statistical independence of an injected pseudo-random signal and the input signal to correct the DAC mismatch in SAR ADCs. This idea is experimentally verified in a 12-bit 37-MS/s SAR ADC fabricated in 65-nm CMOS implemented by Pingli Huang. This prototype chip achieves a 70.23-dB peak SNDR and an 81.02-dB peak SFDR, while occupying 0.12-mm2 silicon area and dissipating 9.14 mW from a 1.2-V supply with the synthesized digital calibration circuits included. The third work is an 8-bit, 600-MS/s, 10-way time-interleaved SAR ADC array fabricated in 0.13-μm CMOS process. This work employs an adaptive digital equalization approach to calibrate both intra-channel nonlinearities and inter-channel mismatch errors. The prototype chip achieves 47.4-dB SNDR, 63.6-dB SFDR, less than 0.30-LSB differential nonlinearity (DNL), and less than 0.23-LSB integral nonlinearity (INL). The ADC array occupies an active area of 1.35 mm2 and dissipates 30.3 mW, including synthesized digital calibration circuits and an on-chip dual-loop delay-locked loop (DLL) for clock generation and synchronization.

Prevalence and associations of Trypanosoma spp. and Sodalis glossinidius with intrinsic factors of tsetse flies

Trypanosomiasis has been identified as a neglected tropical disease in both humans and animals in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Whilst assessments of the biology of trypanosomes, vectors, vertebrate hosts and the environment have provided useful information about life cycles, transmission, and pathogenesis of the parasites that could be used for treatment and control, less information is available about the effects of interactions among multiple intrinsic factors on trypanosome presence in tsetse flies from different sites. It is known that multiple species of tsetse flies can transmit trypanosomes but differences in their vector competence has normally been studied in relation to individual factors in isolation, such as: intrinsic factors of the flies (e.g. age, sex); habitat characteristics; presence of endosymbionts (e.g. Wigglesworthia glossinidia, Sodalis glossinidius); feeding pattern; host communities that the flies feed on; and which species of trypanosomes are transmitted. The purpose of this study was to take a more integrated approach to investigate trypanosome prevalence in tsetse flies. In chapter 2, techniques were optimised for using the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) to identify species of trypanosomes (Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense, T. brucei, T. simiae, and T. godfreyi) present in four species of tsetse flies (Glossina austeni, G. brevipalpis, G. longipennis and G. pallidipes) from two regions of eastern Kenya (the Shimba Hills and Nguruman). Based on universal primers targeting the internal transcribed spacer 1 region (ITS-1), T. vivax was the predominant pathogenic species detected in flies, both singly and in combination with other species of trypanosomes. Using Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) and likelihood ratio tests to choose the best-fitting models, presence of T. vivax was significantly associated with an interaction between subpopulation (a combination between collection sites and species of Glossina) and sex of the flies (X2 = 7.52, df = 21, P-value = 0.0061); prevalence in females overall was higher than in males but this was not consistent across subpopulations. Similarly, T. congolense was significantly associated only with subpopulation (X2 = 18.77, df = 1, P-value = 0.0046); prevalence was higher overall in the Shimba Hills than in Nguruman but this pattern varied by species of tsetse fly. When associations were analysed in individual species of tsetse flies, there were no consistent associations between trypanosome prevalence and any single factor (site, sex, age) and different combinations of interactions were found to be significant for each. The results thus demonstrated complex interactions between vectors and trypanosome prevalence related to both the distribution and intrinsic factors of tsetse flies. The potential influence of the presence of S. glossinidius on trypanosome presence in tsetse flies was studied in chapter 3. A high number of Sodalis positive flies was found in the Shimba Hills, while there were only two positive flies from Nguruman. Presence or absence of Sodalis was significantly associated with subpopulation while trypanosome presence showed a significant association with age (X2 = 4.65, df = 14, P-value = 0.0310) and an interaction between subpopulation and sex (X2 = 18.94, df = 10, P-value = 0.0043). However, the specific associations that were significant varied across species of trypanosomes, with T. congolense and T. brucei but not T. vivax showing significant interactions involving Sodalis. Although it has previously been concluded that presence of Sodalis increases susceptibility to trypanosomes, the results presented here suggest a more complicated relationship, which may be biased by differences in the distribution and intrinsic factors of tsetse flies, as well as which trypanosome species are considered. In chapter 4 trypanosome status was studied in relation to blood meal sources, feeding status and feeding patterns of G. pallidipes (which was the predominant fly species collected for this study) as determined by sequencing the mitochondrial cytochrome B gene using DNA extracted from abdomen samples. African buffalo and African elephants were the main sources of blood meals but antelopes, warthogs, humans, giraffes and hyenas were also identified. Feeding on multiple hosts was common in flies sampled from the Shimba Hills but most flies from Nguruman had fed on single host species. Based on Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA), host-feeding patterns showed a correlation with site of sample collection and Sodalis status, while trypanosome status was correlated with sex and age of the flies, suggesting that recent host-feeding patterns from blood meal analysis cannot predict trypanosome status. In conclusion, the complexity of interactions found suggests that strategies of tsetse fly control should be specific to particular epidemic areas. Future studies should include laboratory experiments that use local colonies of tsetse flies, local strains of trypanosomes and local S. glossinidius under controlled environmental conditions to tease out the factors that affect vector competence and the relative influence of external environmental factors on the dynamics of these interactions.

Nuevo método de identificación usando la respuesta escalón para sistemas de fase no mínima de segundo orden

Este artículo presenta un nuevo método de identificación para sistemas de fase no mínima basado en la respuesta escalón. El enfoque propuesto provee un modelo aproximado de segundo orden evitando diseños experimentales complejos. El método propuesto es un algoritmo de identificación cerrado basado en puntos característicos de la respuesta escalón de sistemas de fase no mínima de segundo orden. Él es validado usando diferentes modelos lineales. Ellos tienen respuesta inversa entre 3,5% y 38% de la respuesta en régimen permanente. En simulaciones, ha sido demostrado que resultados satisfactorios pueden ser obtenidos usando el procedimiento de identificación propuesto, donde los parámetros identificados presentan errores relativos medios, menores que los obtenidos mediante el método de Balaguer.

A study on independent component analysis over galois fields

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Elétrica, 2015.

Quantification of air quality in space and time and its effects on health

The long-term adverse effects on health associated with air pollution exposure can be estimated using either cohort or spatio-temporal ecological designs. In a cohort study, the health status of a cohort of people are assessed periodically over a number of years, and then related to estimated ambient pollution concentrations in the cities in which they live. However, such cohort studies are expensive and time consuming to implement, due to the long-term follow up required for the cohort. Therefore, spatio-temporal ecological studies are also being used to estimate the long-term health effects of air pollution as they are easy to implement due to the routine availability of the required data. Spatio-temporal ecological studies estimate the health impact of air pollution by utilising geographical and temporal contrasts in air pollution and disease risk across $n$ contiguous small-areas, such as census tracts or electoral wards, for multiple time periods. The disease data are counts of the numbers of disease cases occurring in each areal unit and time period, and thus Poisson log-linear models are typically used for the analysis. The linear predictor includes pollutant concentrations and known confounders such as socio-economic deprivation. However, as the disease data typically contain residual spatial or spatio-temporal autocorrelation after the covariate effects have been accounted for, these known covariates are augmented by a set of random effects. One key problem in these studies is estimating spatially representative pollution concentrations in each areal which are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over modelled concentrations (grid level) from an atmospheric dispersion model. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particular matter (PM10) in mainland Scotland, UK. In order to have an initial impression about the air pollution health effects in mainland Scotland, chapter 3 presents a standard epidemiological study using a benchmark method. The remaining main chapters (4, 5, 6) cover the main methodological focus in this thesis which has been threefold: (i) how to better estimate pollution by developing a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant; (ii) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants; and (iii) how to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. Specifically, chapters 4 and 5 are developed to achieve (i), while chapter 6 focuses on (ii) and (iii). In chapter 4, I propose an integrated model for estimating the long-term health effects of NO2, that fuses modelled and measured pollution data to provide improved predictions of areal level pollution concentrations and hence health effects. The air pollution fusion model proposed is a Bayesian space-time linear regression model for relating the measured concentrations to the modelled concentrations for a single pollutant, whilst allowing for additional covariate information such as site type (e.g. roadside, rural, etc) and temperature. However, it is known that some pollutants might be correlated because they may be generated by common processes or be driven by similar factors such as meteorology. The correlation between pollutants can help to predict one pollutant by borrowing strength from the others. Therefore, in chapter 5, I propose a multi-pollutant model which is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that extends the single pollutant model in chapter 4, which relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant to predict pollution across mainland Scotland. Considering that we are exposed to multiple pollutants simultaneously because the air we breathe contains a complex mixture of particle and gas phase pollutants, the health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants have been investigated in chapter 6. Therefore, this is a natural extension to the single pollutant health effects in chapter 4. Given NO2 and PM10 are highly correlated (multicollinearity issue) in my data, I first propose a temporally-varying linear model to regress one pollutant (e.g. NO2) against another (e.g. PM10) and then use the residuals in the disease model as well as PM10, thus investigating the health effects of exposure to both pollutants simultaneously. Another issue considered in chapter 6 is to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. There are in total four approaches being developed to adjust the exposure uncertainty. Finally, chapter 7 summarises the work contained within this thesis and discusses the implications for future research.

As rodovias e as aves de rapina nocturnas relação entre a densidade, o habitat e a mortalidade

As estradas e tráfego inerente surgem como a criação antrópica mais conspícua e penetrante na paisagem natural, sendo considerados os principais agentes causadores de fragmentação e destruição de habitats, assim como representam um obstáculo físico sem precedentes, limitando as relações directas entre os indivíduos, por diminuição da frequência de dispersão e aumento da mortalidade por atropelamento, impedindo o fluxo natural de genes e suscitando o aumento de fenómenos de inbreeding e perda de heterozigotia. Todos os impactes deletérios associados às rodovias são claramente perceptíveis em vertebrados, onde as aves de rapinas nocturnas não são excepção. Uma vez que estas rapaces beneficiam das suas bermas e orlas, como locais de poiso, nidificação ou como corredores de dispersão através da paisagem, são frequentemente vítimas de mortalidade por atropelamento em estradas, sendo esta problemática considerada actualmente uma das mais recentes e importantes formas de mortalidade não natural em rapinas nocturnas e vinculada como um dos maiores problemas de conservação que afecta este grupo. Não obstante, esse mútuo efeito de atracção/repulsa das estradas a estas rapaces, as rodovias criam uma barreira específica que limita a dinâmica, comportamento e densidade populacional das espécies residentes, reconhecendo-se que o isolamento daí resultante, pode comprometer a viabilidade populacional a longo prazo, podendo mesmo conduzir a altos riscos de extinção das populações locais devido a efeitos estocásticos. Mediante esta problemática, este trabalho debruçou-se sobre um único objectivo principal: a avaliação do impacte das rodovias e do tráfego, na densidade das aves de rapina nocturnas. Este estudo foi efectuado na região Alentejana, abrangendo uma área de cariz tipicamente mediterrânico, delimitada pelas localidades de Montemor-o-Novo, Arraiolos e Évora, sendo seccionada por 143 quilómetros de estradas, divididas em autoestrada, rodovias com elevada e reduzida densidade de tráfego. A monitorização das rapinas nocturnas foi conduzida em dois anos amostrais (2005 e 2007), tendo sido focalizada sobretudo em duas espécies de Strigiformes, a Coruja­ do-mato Strix aluco e o Mocho-galego Athene noctua, recorrendo ao uso de playbacks com reprodução de vocalizações de indivíduos conspecíficos. Foram usadas 32 variáveis explicativas integradas em três grandes grupos: variáveis de estrada, métricas da paisagem, uso do solo, tendo sido analiticamente testadas, recorrendo à aplicação de Modelos Lineares Generalizados. Os principais resultados obtidos demonstram que as variáveis de estrada, aliadas à densidade de tráfego e ruído inerente à sua circulação, são provavelmente, responsáveis por um comportamento de repulsa das espécies de aves de rapina nocturnas em estudo, apresentando estas densidades mais elevadas longe de áreas antropicamente perturbadas e, portanto, de menor qualidade que se encontram adjacentes às rodovias. Todavia a presença de habitat favorável a estas rapaces é provavelmente o descritor com maior poder estatístico no que concerne à sua distribuição e densidade, sendo os montados densos e a presença de zonas agrícolas de sequeiro, positivamente correlacionadas, respectivamente com a densidade de casais reprodutores de Coruja-do-mato e Mocho-galego. Mediante a observação dos resultados será veemente a aplicação de medidas de mitigação específicas, que fundamentalmente considerem o afastamento dos efectivos populacionais longe das estradas e tráfego, conservando e assegurando as características estruturais, requisitos e qualidade dos habitats, de modo a incrementar e garantir a viabilidade e densidade das populações, fidelizando a territorialidade e permanência destas aves nestas áreas. Adicionalmente deverá investir-se na conectividade das manchas de paisagem fragmentada pelas rodovias, criando opções de conservação estratégicas, em zonas ecologicamente mais sensíveis, que não somente minimizem o efeito de repulsa reconhecido nestas aves, mas também os níveis de mortalidade por atropelamento, tornando os ecossistemas mais funcionais para a sobrevivência destes rapaces. ABSTRACT; Roads and traffic are the most conspicuous and pervasive human creation, being the great responsible for fragmentation and habitats destruction, reducing animal movement through landscape, which implies decrease of gene flow and loss of variability that can fragmented populations, thus reducing their sizes and densities. All deleterious impacts associated with roads are clearly visible in vertebrates, where owls aren't exception, being frequent victims of road mortality, since they can use roadside habitats and edges for hunting, nesting or dispersal corridors through the landscape, being nowadays one of the most recent and important causes of non­natural mortality in owls and has been recognized as one of the largest conservation problems affecting this group. However, the attractive and avoidance effect of roads and his edges on owls creates a barrier effect that limits dynamics, behaviour and breeding density of resident species, recognizing that possible isolation, could compromise populations survival, make them more vulnerable to high risks of local extinction due to stochastic effects. Despite that, several authors suggest that owls use roads to hunt, as marginal habitats, or for navigation corridors through the landscape ln this context, the major aims of this study was to verify if there are negative effects of roads on the density of owls, considering traffic as an influencing factor. This study was conducted in Alentejo, covering a typical Mediterranean area, including three main localities Montemor-o-Novo, Évora and Arraiolos, being sectioned by 143 km of roads, including highway, roads with high traffic density, and the remaining with low traffic density. The owl census was conducted in two sampling years (2005 and 2007) and was focused mainly on Little owl Athene noctua and Tawny Owl Strix aluco species, using the playback technique, with conspecific calls. We used 32 explanatory variables, mainly included in three groups: road variables, landscape metrics and land use, having been analytically tested, with application of Generalised Linear Models. The main results show that noisy roads with high traffic density are probably the most responsible for the avoidance behaviour of owls, under the study area, showing density depression near high anthropogenic disturbed areas adjacent to roads. However, the presence of habitat quality to these birds is probably the descriptor with greater statistical power, considering its distribution and density, with the dense oak woodland and croplands and arable lands, positively correlated, respectively with Tawny owl and Little owl density. ln consequence, the great conservation effort should be done in order to keep breeding populations away from roads and traffic, ensuring the structural features, requirements and quality of its habitats in order to enhance and ensure the viability and density of owl's populations in these areas. ln addition, it is important to invest in connectivity between roadside fragmented patches, creating strategic conservation options, in sensitive areas, which minimize the avoidance effect, recognized in owls, but also road-kill levels, making ecosystems more functional to survival of these top predators.

Modelação e previsão de um índice financeiro (FTSE 100)

A presente dissertação visa uma aplicação de séries temporais, na modelação do índice financeiro FTSE100. Com base na série de retornos, foram estudadas a estacionaridade através do teste Phillips-Perron, a normalidade pelo Teste Jarque-Bera, a independência analisada pela função de autocorrelação e pelo teste de Ljung-Box, e utilizados modelos GARCH, com a finalidade de modelar e prever a variância condicional (volatilidade) da série financeira em estudo. As séries temporais financeiras apresentam características peculiares, revelando períodos mais voláteis do que outros. Esses períodos encontram-se distribuídos em clusters, sugerindo um grau de dependência no tempo. Atendendo à presença de tais grupos de volatilidade (não linearidade), torna-se necessário o recurso a modelos heterocedásticos condicionais, isto é, modelos que consideram que a variância condicional de uma série temporal não é constante e dependente do tempo. Face à grande variabilidade das séries temporais financeiras ao longo do tempo, os modelos ARCH (Engle, 1982) e a sua generalização GARCH (Bollerslev, 1986) revelam-se os mais adequados para o estudo da volatilidade. Em particular, estes modelos não lineares apresentam uma variância condicional aleatória, sendo possível, através do seu estudo, estimar e prever a volatilidade futura da série. Por fim, é apresentado o estudo empírico que se baseia numa proposta de modelação e previsão de um conjunto de dados reais do índice financeiro FTSE100.

Outcome Prediction of Consciousness Disorders in the Acute Stage Based on a Complementary Motor Behavioural Tool.

INTRODUCTION: Attaining an accurate diagnosis in the acute phase for severely brain-damaged patients presenting Disorders of Consciousness (DOC) is crucial for prognostic validity; such a diagnosis determines further medical management, in terms of therapeutic choices and end-of-life decisions. However, DOC evaluation based on validated scales, such as the Revised Coma Recovery Scale (CRS-R), can lead to an underestimation of consciousness and to frequent misdiagnoses particularly in cases of cognitive motor dissociation due to other aetiologies. The purpose of this study is to determine the clinical signs that lead to a more accurate consciousness assessment allowing more reliable outcome prediction. METHODS: From the Unit of Acute Neurorehabilitation (University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland) between 2011 and 2014, we enrolled 33 DOC patients with a DOC diagnosis according to the CRS-R that had been established within 28 days of brain damage. The first CRS-R assessment established the initial diagnosis of Unresponsive Wakefulness Syndrome (UWS) in 20 patients and a Minimally Consciousness State (MCS) in the remaining13 patients. We clinically evaluated the patients over time using the CRS-R scale and concurrently from the beginning with complementary clinical items of a new observational Motor Behaviour Tool (MBT). Primary endpoint was outcome at unit discharge distinguishing two main classes of patients (DOC patients having emerged from DOC and those remaining in DOC) and 6 subclasses detailing the outcome of UWS and MCS patients, respectively. Based on CRS-R and MBT scores assessed separately and jointly, statistical testing was performed in the acute phase using a non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test; longitudinal CRS-R data were modelled with a Generalized Linear Model. RESULTS: Fifty-five per cent of the UWS patients and 77% of the MCS patients had emerged from DOC. First, statistical prediction of the first CRS-R scores did not permit outcome differentiation between classes; longitudinal regression modelling of the CRS-R data identified distinct outcome evolution, but not earlier than 19 days. Second, the MBT yielded a significant outcome predictability in the acute phase (p<0.02, sensitivity>0.81). Third, a statistical comparison of the CRS-R subscales weighted by MBT became significantly predictive for DOC outcome (p<0.02). DISCUSSION: The association of MBT and CRS-R scoring improves significantly the evaluation of consciousness and the predictability of outcome in the acute phase. Subtle motor behaviour assessment provides accurate insight into the amount and the content of consciousness even in the case of cognitive motor dissociation.