Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Gini coefficient, dissimilarity index and Lorenz curve for the spanish port system by type of goods

This paper shows the Gini Coefficient, the dissimilarity Index and the Lorenz Curve for the Spanish Port System by type of goods from 1960 to the year 2010 for business units: Total traffic, Liquid bulk cargo, Solid bulk cargo, General Merchandise and Container (TEUs) with the aim of carcaterizar the Spanish port systems in these periods and propose future strategies.

Analysis of gain-switching in two-section tapered lasers

We analyze the gain-switching dynamics of two-section tapered lasers by means of a simplified three-rate-equation model. The goal is to improve the understanding of the underlying physics and to optimize the device geometry to achieve high power short duration optical pulses.

On ergodic least-squares estimators of the generalized diffusion coefficient for fractional Brownian motion

We analyse a class of estimators of the generalized diffusion coefficient for fractional Brownian motion Bt of known Hurst index H, based on weighted functionals of the single time square displacement. We show that for a certain choice of the weight function these functionals possess an ergodic property and thus provide the true, ensemble-averaged, generalized diffusion coefficient to any necessary precision from a single trajectory data, but at expense of a progressively higher experimental resolution. Convergence is fastest around H ? 0.30, a value in the subdiffusive regime.

Could excessive gestational weight gain be prevented by exercise?

La ganancia de peso en el embarazo puede prevenirse mediante un programa de ejercicio físico.

Modified Gutenberg-Richter coefficient for damage evaluation in reinforced concrete structures subjected to seismic simulations on a shaking table

This paper presents analysis and discussion of the b- and ib-values calculated from the acoustic emission (AE) signals recorded during dynamic shake-table tests conducted on a reinforced concrete (RC) frame subjected to several uniaxial seismic simulations of increasing intensity until collapse. The intensity of shaking was controlled by the peak acceleration applied to the shake-table in each seismic simulation, and it ranged from 0.08 to 0.47 times the acceleration of gravity. The numerous spurious signals not related to concrete damage that inevitably contaminate AE measurements obtained from complex dynamic shake-table tests were properly filtered with an RMS filter and the use of guard sensors. Comparing the b- and ib-values calculated through the tests with the actual level of macro-cracking and damage observed during testing, it was concluded that the limit value of 0.05 proposed in previous research to determine the onset of macro-cracks should be revised in the case of earthquake-type dynamic loading. Finally, the b- and ibvalues were compared with the damage endured by the RC frame evaluated both visually and quantitatively in terms of the inter-story drift index.

Let's Gain More Confidence Of Clinicians With Our Colorful Contours: Blood Flow Simulation In Arteries Using Abaqus & STAR-CCM+

The objective of the current work is to present the results of several numerical simulations of pulsatile blood flow in healthy and diseased arteries and compare with clinical expectations. Different realistic and physiological aspects such as blood flow interaction with arterial walls, effect of heart movement, cardiovascular autoregulation, arterial walls' hyperelasticity and cardiovascular disorders have been incorporated in the models thanks to a direct coupling of Abaqus and STAR-CCM+. Comparisons of implicit and explicit coupling methods in cardiovascular simulations have been discussed. An in-house methodology combined with explicit FSI coupling has reduced considerably calculation time while the simulations stay realistic and reliable for clinicians

Comparative analysis of measurement techniques of the sound absorption coefficient of a material

Las tendencias actuales apuntan al desarrollo de nuevos materiales económicos y ecológicos con óptimas propiedades mecánicas, acústicas y térmicas. En la caracterización acústica del material es habitual medir su coeficiente de absorción sonora. Las dos técnicas usuales de medida de este parámetro son en cámara reverberante y en tubo de Kundt. No obstante, existen técnicas de medida “in situ” del coeficiente de absorción que permiten una comprobación del comportamiento real en la forma definitiva de colocación del material. En este trabajo se presenta un estudio comparativo del coeficiente de absorción sonora medido en un material usando distintas técnicas de medida.

Temporally flat top pulse generation from gain switched semiconductor lasers based on a polarization interferometer with variable transfer function

We propose the use of a polarization based interferometer with variable transfer function for the generation of temporally flat top pulses from gain switched single mode semiconductor lasers. The main advantage of the presented technique is its flexibility in terms of input pulse characteristics, as pulse duration, spectral bandwidth and operating wavelength. Theoretical predictions and experimental demonstrations are presented and the proposed technique is applied to two different semiconductor laser sources emitting in the 1550 nm region. Flat top pulses are successfully obtained with input seed pulses with duration ranging from 40 ps to 100 ps.

Determination of a refractive index and an extinction coefficient of standard production of CVD-graphene

The refractive index and extinction coefficient of chemical vapour deposition grown graphene are determined by ellipsometry analysis. Graphene films were grown on copper substrates and transferred as both monolayers and bilayers onto SiO2/Si substrates by using standard manufacturing procedures. The chemical nature and thickness of residual debris formed after the transfer process were elucidated using photoelectron spectroscopy. The real layered structure so deduced has been used instead of the nominal one as the input in the ellipsometry analysis of monolayer and bilayer graphene, transferred onto both native and thermal silicon oxide. The effect of these contamination layers on the optical properties of the stacked structure is noticeable both in the visible and the ultraviolet spectral regions, thus masking the graphene optical response. Finally, the use of heat treatment under a nitrogen atmosphere of the graphene-based stacked structures, as a method to reduce the water content of the sample, and its effect on the optical response of both graphene and the residual debris layer are presented. The Lorentz-Drude model proposed for the optical response of graphene fits fairly well the experimental ellipsometric data for all the analysed graphene-based stacked structures.

Compression, gain, and nonlinear distortion in an active cochlear model with subpartitions

The propagation of inhomogeneous, weakly nonlinear waves is considered in a cochlear model having two degrees of freedom that represent the transverse motions of the tectorial and basilar membranes within the organ of Corti. It is assumed that nonlinearity arises from the saturation of outer hair cell active force generation. I use multiple scale asymptotics and treat nonlinearity as a correction to a linear hydroelastic wave. The resulting theory is used to explain experimentally observed features of the response of the cochlear partition to a pure tone, including: the amplification of the response in a healthy cochlea vs a dead one; the less than linear growth rate of the response to increasing sound pressure level; and the amount of distortion to be expected at high and low frequencies at basal and apical locations, respectively. I also show that the outer hair cell nonlinearity generates retrograde waves.

Gain of imprinting at chromosome 11p15: A pathogenetic mechanism identified in human hepatocarcinomas

Genomic imprinting is a reversible condition that causes parental-specific silencing of maternally or paternally inherited genes. Analysis of DNA and RNA from 52 human hepatocarcinoma samples revealed abnormal imprinting of genes located at chromosome 11p15 in 51% of 37 informative samples. The most frequently detected abnormality was gain of imprinting, which led to loss of expression of genes present on the maternal chromosome. As compared with matched normal liver tissue, hepatocellular carcinomas showed extinction or significant reduction of expression of one of the alleles of the CDKN1C, SLC22A1L, and IGF2 genes. Loss of maternal-specific methylation at the KvDMR1 locus in hepatocarcinoma correlated with abnormal expression of CDKN1C and IGF2, suggesting a function for KvDMR1 as a long-range imprinting center active in adult tissues. These results point to the role of epigenetic mechanisms leading to loss of expression of imprinted genes at chromosome region 11p15 in human tumors.

Corticotropin-releasing factor-binding protein ligand inhibitor blunts excessive weight gain in genetically obese Zucker rats and rats during nicotine withdrawal

Elevation of the neuropeptide corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) in the brain is associated with a reduction of food intake and body weight gain in normal and obese animals. A protein that binds CRF and the related peptide, urocortin, with high affinity, CRF-binding protein (CRF-BP), may play a role in energy homeostasis by inactivating members of this peptide family in ingestive and metabolic regulatory brain regions. Intracerebroventricular administration in rats of the high-affinity CRF-BP ligand inhibitor, rat/human CRF (6-33), which dissociates CRF or urocortin from CRF-BP and increases endogenous brain levels of “free” CRF or urocortin significantly blunted exaggerated weight gain in Zucker obese subjects and in animals withdrawn from chronic nicotine. Chronic administration of CRF suppressed weight gain nonselectively by 60% in both Zucker obese and lean control rats, whereas CRF-BP ligand inhibitor treatment significantly reduced weight gain in obese subjects, without altering weight gain in lean control subjects. Nicotine abstinent subjects, but not nicotine-naive controls, experienced a 35% appetite suppression and a 25% weight gain reduction following acute and chronic administration, respectively, of CRF-BP ligand inhibitor. In marked contrast to the effects of a CRF-receptor agonist, the CRF-BP ligand inhibitor did not stimulate adrenocorticotropic hormone secretion or elevate heart rate and blood pressure. These results provide support for the hypothesis that the CRF-BP may function within the brain to limit selected actions of CRF and/or urocortin. Furthermore, CRF-BP may represent a novel and functionally selective target for the symptomatic treatment of excessive weight gain associated with obesity of multiple etiology.

A splicing switch and gain-of-function mutation in FgfR2-IIIc hemizygotes causes Apert/Pfeiffer-syndrome-like phenotypes

Intercellular signaling by fibroblast growth factors plays vital roles during embryogenesis. Mice deficient for fibroblast growth factor receptors (FgfRs) show abnormalities in early gastrulation and implantation, disruptions in epithelial–mesenchymal interactions, as well as profound defects in membranous and endochondrial bone formation. Activating FGFR mutations are the underlying cause of several craniosynostoses and dwarfism syndromes in humans. Here we show that a heterozygotic abrogation of FgfR2-exon 9 (IIIc) in mice causes a splicing switch, resulting in a gain-of-function mutation. The consequences are neonatal growth retardation and death, coronal synostosis, ocular proptosis, precocious sternal fusion, and abnormalities in secondary branching in several organs that undergo branching morphogenesis. This phenotype has strong parallels to some Apert's and Pfeiffer's syndrome patients.

Gain- and loss-of-function of Rhp51, a Rad51 homolog in fission yeast, reveals dissimilarities in chromosome integrity

Rad51 is crucial not only in homologous recombination and recombinational repair but also in normal cellular growth. To address the role of Rad51 in normal cell growth we investigated morphological changes of cells after overexpression of wild-type and a dominant negative form of Rad51 in fission yeast. Rhp51, a Rad51 homolog in Schizosaccharomyces pombe, has a highly conserved ATP-binding motif. Rhp51 K155A, which has a single substitution in this motif, failed to rescue hypersensitivity of a rhp51Δ mutant to methyl methanesulfonate (MMS) and UV, whereas it binds normally to Rhp51 and Rad22, a Rad52 homolog. Two distinct cellular phenotypes were observed when Rhp51 or Rhp51 K155A was overexpressed in normal cells. Overexpression of Rhp51 caused lethality in the absence of DNA-damaging agents, with acquisition of a cell cycle mutant phenotype and accumulation of a 1C DNA population. On the other hand, overexpression of Rhp51 K155A led to a delay in G2 with decondensed nuclei, which resembled the phenotype of rhp51Δ. The latter also exhibited MMS and UV sensitivity, indicating that Rhp51 K155A has a dominant negative effect. These results suggest an association between DNA replication and Rad51 function.