On forward induction and evolutionary and strategic stability

We analyze which normal form solution concepts capture the notion offorward induction, as defined by van Damme (JET, 1989) in the classof generic two player normal form games preceded by an outsideoption. We find that none of the known strategic stability concepts(including Mertens stable sets and hyperstable sets) captures this form of forward induction. On the other hand, we show that the evolutionary concept of EES set (Swinkels, JET, 1992) is always consistent with forward induction.

Assessing an intuitive condition for stability under a range of traffic conditions via a generalised Lu-Kumar network

We argue the importance both of developing simple sufficientconditions for the stability of general multiclass queueing networks and also of assessing such conditions under a range of assumptions on the weight of the traffic flowing between service stations. To achieve the former, we review a peak-rate stability condition and extend its range of application and for the latter, we introduce a generalisation of the Lu-Kumar network on which the stability condition may be tested for a range of traffic configurations. The peak-rate condition is close to exact when the between-station traffic is light, but degrades as this traffic increases.

The effect of treatment with calcitonin on vertebral fracture rate in osteoporosis.

The efficacy of treatments for osteoporosis does not become evident when evaluated by fracture incidence (FI). Vertebral FI decreased in all controlled studies on calcitonin, but not significantly. Small sample sizes and short periods of treatment may have masked a possible therapeutic benefit, but longer, controlled studies with sodium fluoride or etidronate in larger groups of patients also failed to show a decrease in FI. The present analysis of nine published, therapeutic studies which indicate the FI per year and the initial prevalence of vertebral fractures, examines the question of whether the initial prevalence of fractures has an effect on the subsequent incidence of new fractures and whether the therapeutic effects have to be evaluated as a function of the initial prevalence of fractures. Bearing in mind the differences in roentgenological evaluation and in the size and quality of the various studies, the analysis revealed (1) that in the control groups there was a higher FI in patients with more than three vertebral fractures at baseline (estimated odds ratio (OR) = 49, p = 0.011); (2) that a similar trend, although not statistically significant, was observed in treated patients; (3) that the groups of control patients treated for more than 1 year showed in general an increase in FI beyond the first year and that the reverse was true in treated patients. In conclusion, failure to allow for the initial prevalence of vertebral fractures at the individual level in therapeutic trials of calcitonin to treat osteoporosis and prevent new fractures might have contributed to the absence of a demonstrable benefit of the treatment in those studies.

Evolution in heterogeneous populations: from migration models to fixation probabilities.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

Intra-individual stability of neuromotor tasks from 6 to 18 years: a longitudinal study.

This study investigates the intra-individual stability of the speed of several motor tasks and the intensity of associated movements in 256 children (131 girls, 125 boys) from the Zurich generational study using the Zurich neuromotor assessment battery (ZNA) over a 12-year period from the age of 6 to 18 years. The stability was assessed by correlograms of standard deviation scores calculated from age- and gender-adjusted normative values and compared with standing height and full scale intelligence quotient (IQ). While motor tasks of hand, finger and foot (HFT) and contralateral associated movements (CAM) exhibited a moderate stability (summary measure as correlation coefficients between two measurements made 4 years apart: .61 and .60), other tasks (dynamic balance, static balance and pegboard) were only weakly stable (.46, .47 and .49). IQ and height were more stable than neuromotor components (.72 and .86). We conclude that the moderately stable HFT and CAM may reflect "motor traits", while the stability of the pegboard and balance tasks is weaker because these skills are more experience related and state-dependent.

Chronic wound healing by fetal cell therapy may be explained by differential gene profiling observed in fetal versus old skin cells.

Engineering of fetal tissue has a high potential for the treatment of acute and chronic wounds of the skin in humans as these cells have high expansion capacity under simple culture conditions and one organ donation can produce Master Cell Banks which can fabricate over 900 million biological bandages (9 x 12cm). In a Phase 1 clinical safety study, cases are presented for the treatment of therapy resistant leg ulcers. All eight patients, representing 13 ulcers, tolerated multiple treatments with fetal biological bandages showing no negative secondary effects and repair processes similar to that seen in 3rd degree burns. Differential gene profiling using Affymetrix gene chips (analyzing 12,500 genes) were accomplished on these banked fetal dermal skin cells compared to banked dermal skin cells of an aged donor in order to point to potential indicators of wound healing. Families of genes involved in cell adhesion and extracellular matrix, cell cycle, cellular signaling, development and immune response show significant differences in regulation between banked fetal and those from banked old skin cells: with approximately 47.0% of genes over-expressed in fetal fibroblasts. It is perhaps these differences which contribute to efficient tissue repair seen in the clinic with fetal cell therapy.

(Young Investigator Award) Trabecular Bone Score Helps Classifying Women At Risk Of Fracture Prospectively In The Ofely Study

Introduction: To determine the metabolic effect of teriparatide (TPTD) on bone, 99mTc-MDP skeletal plasma clearance was measured in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis treated with TPTD 20 μg/day. Methods: Ten postmenopausal women with osteoporosis had radionuclide bone scans at baseline, 3, and 18 months after starting TPTD 20 μg/day and after 6 months off therapy. Participants were injected with 600 MBq 99mTc- MDP and whole body bone scans acquired at 10 min, 1, 2, 3, and 4 h. Multiple blood samples were taken between 5 min and 4 h and free 99mTc-MDP measured using ultrafiltration. 99mTc-MDP plasma clearance (Kbone) was evaluated using the Patlak plot method. Regional differences in Kbone were studied by measuring the whole skeleton and subregions. Serum procollagen type I Nterminal propeptide (PINP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BSAP), and urinary N-terminal telopeptide (NTX) were measured at each visit.Discussion: The median increase from baseline in whole skeleton Kbone was 22% (P=0.004) at 3 months and 34% (P= 0.002) at 18 months, decreasing to 0.7% after 6 months off therapy. In subregions, Kbone value increases were statistically significant at 3 months and in all subregions except the pelvis at 18 months. After 6 months off therapy, subregional Kbone values also returned toward baseline. Bone markers increases from baseline were statistically significant at 3 and 18 months (BSAP, 15% and 36%; PINP, 137% and 192%; NTX, 109% and 125%). After 6 months off therapy, PINP and NTX values had declined, though remained above baseline (BSAP, −3%; PINP, 43%; NTX, 56%). Increased Kbone values in the whole body and lower extremities were correlated with increases in most bone markers at 3 and 18 months. Increased skeletal uptake of 99mTc-MDP during treatment with TPTD is indicative of increased bone formation and is supported by increases in bone turnover markers.Conclusion: Changes in Kbone and skeletal uptake measured by radionuclide bone scans in patients taking TPTD are the result of metabolic activity of the drug. These data may provide physicians with useful insights when interpreting bone scan results in this population.

A non-quasi-competitive Cournot oligopoly with stability

This paper presents a classical Cournot oligopoly model with some peculiar features: it is non--quasi--competitive as price under N-poly is greater than monopoly price; Cournot equilibrium exists and is unique with each new entry; the successive equilibria after new entries are stable under the adjustment mechanism that assumes that actual output of each seller is adjusted proportionally to the difference between actual output and profit maximizing output. Moreover, the model tends to perfect competition as N goes to infinity, reaching the monopoly price again.

Facteurs de risque fracturaire, nouveaux traitements: comment evolue la prise en charge de l'ostéoporose de la personne agée [Fracture risk, new treatments: how does the management of the osteoporosis of elderly change?]

Osteoporosis of elderly is a growing medical, economic and health-care problem. It is due to the increase of the life expectancy and the number of osteoporotic fractures. With the new Swiss-specific tool FRAX and the development of inpatients fracture trajectory, we can better identify patients with high risk of fracture. An appropriate treatment can be proposed more quickly. The follow-up of bone markers increases the treatment efficiency. With a better identification, treatment and follow-up of osteoporosis of elderly patients, we can ameliorate the patient's quality of life and decrease the number of osteoporotic fractures with a good cost-effectiveness ratio.

Poly-N-acetyl glucosamine fibers are synergistic with vacuum-assisted closure in augmenting the healing response of diabetic mice.

BACKGROUND: Vacuum-assisted closure (VAC) has become the preferred modality to treat many complex wounds but could be further improved by methods that minimize bleeding and facilitate wound epithelialization. Short fiber poly-N-acetyl glucosamine nanofibers (sNAG) are effective hemostatic agents that activate platelets and facilitate wound epithelialization. We hypothesized that sNAG used in combination with the VAC device could be synergistic in promoting wound healing while minimizing the risk of bleeding. METHODS: Membranes consisting entirely of sNAG nanofibers were applied immediately to dorsal excisional wounds of db/db mice followed by application of the VAC device. Wound healing kinetics, angiogenesis, and wound-related growth factor expression were measured. RESULTS: The application of sNAG membranes to wounds 24 hours before application of the VAC device was associated with a significant activation of wounds (expression of PDGF, TGFβ, EGF), superior granulation tissue formation rich in Collagen I as well as superior wound epithelialization (8.6% ± 0.3% vs. 1.8% ± 1.1% of initial wound size) and wound contraction. CONCLUSIONS: The application of sNAG fiber-containing membranes before the application of the polyurethane foam interface of VAC devices leads to superior healing in db/db mice and represents a promising wound healing adjunct that can also reduce the risk of bleeding complications.

The fixation of locally beneficial alleles in a metapopulation.

Extinction, recolonization, and local adaptation are common in natural spatially structured populations. Understanding their effect upon genetic variation is important for systems such as genetically modified organism management or avoidance of drug resistance. Theoretical studies on the effect of extinction and recolonization upon genetic variance started appearing in the 1970s, but the role of local adaptation still has no good theoretical basis. Here we develop a model of a haploid species in a metapopulation in which a locally adapted beneficial allele is introduced. We study the effect of different spatial patterns of local adaptation, and different metapopulation dynamics, upon the fixation probability of the beneficial allele. Controlling for the average selection pressure, we find that a small area of positive selection can significantly increase the global probability of fixation. However, local adaptation becomes less important as extinction rate increases. Deme extinction and recolonization have a spatial smoothing effect that effectively reduces spatial variation in fitness.

Hip fracture incidence in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, 1986-1991.

The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of hip fracture in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland (total population 584 000), for the period 1986-1991 using routine hospital discharge data collected by the Cantonal Service of Statistical Research and Information (SCRIS). For the survey period, the estimated average annual crude incidence rate of hip fractures was 167 per 100 000 persons aged 20 or older (241 for women and 84 for men). For the population aged 50 years or older, the crude incidence rate was 388 per 100 000 persons (546 for women and 185 for men). The average annual age-specific rates rose exponentially by successive 5-year age groups. The median age of patients at the time of the fracture was 82 years in women and 74 years in men. There was no significant difference between the total number of cervical and trochanteric fractures. Between the ages of 20 and 84 years, the cumulative risk for a woman to be admitted to hospital with a hip fracture was twice that of a man (15.8% vs 7.8%). From 1986 to 1991, the age- and sex-adjusted incidence, like the ratio of cervical to trochanteric fractures, did not show any significant trend, although it was consistent with an increase in men (p=0.09). However, the annual number of fractures rose from 644 to 776, particularly among very aged men. The mean length of stay in the acute care hospital fell from 38 days in 1986 to 25 days in 1991. Finally, the comparison of these results with those obtained in 1986 for the same population from more exhaustive sources has confirmed the provision of a consistent, although overestimated, assessment of hip fracture incidence by means of these routine hospital statistics in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland.

Vertebral microarchitecture and fragility fracture in men: a TBS study.

INTRODUCTION: Although osteoporosis is considered a disease of women, 25% of the individuals with osteoporosis are men. BMD measurement by DXA is the gold standard used to diagnose osteoporosis and assess fracture risk. Nevertheless, BMD does not take into account alterations of microarchitecture. TBS is an index of bone microarchitecture extracted from the spine DXA. Previous studies have reported the ability of the spine TBS to predict osteoporotic fractures in women. This is the first case-controlled study in men to evaluate the potential diagnostic value of TBS as a complement to bone mineral density (BMD), by comparing men with and without fractures. METHODS: To be eligible for this study, subjects had to be non-Hispanic US white men aged 40 and older. Furthermore, subjects were excluded if they have or have had previously any treatment or illness that may influence bone metabolism. Fractured subjects were included if the presence of at least one fracture was confirmed. Cases were matched for age (±3 years) and BMD (±0.04 g/cm(2)) with three controls. BMD and TBS were first retrospectively evaluated at AP spine (L1-L4) with a Prodigy densitometer (GE-Lunar, Madison, USA) and TBS iNsight® (Med-Imaps, France) in Lausanne University Hospital blinded from clinical outcome. Inter-group comparisons were undertaken using Student's t-tests or Wilcoxon signed rank tests. Odds ratios were calculated per one standard deviation decrease as well as areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC). RESULTS: After applying inclusion/exclusion criteria, a group of 180 male subjects was obtained. This group consists of 45 fractured subjects (age=63.3±12.6 years, BMI=27.1±4.2 kg/m(2)) and 135 control subjects (age=62.9±11.9 years, BMI=26.7±3.9 kg/m(2)) matched for age (p=0.86) and BMD (p=0.20). A weak correlation was obtained between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r=0.27 and r=-0.28, respectively, p<0.01). Subjects with fracture have a significant lower TBS compared to control subjects (p=0.013), whereas no differences were obtained for BMI, height and weight (p>0.10). TBS OR per standard deviation is 1.55 [1.09-2.20] for all fracture type. When considering vertebral fracture only TBS OR reached 2.07 [1.14-3.74]. CONCLUSION: This study showed the potential use of TBS in men. TBS revealed a significant difference between fractured and age- and spine BMD-matched nonfractured subjects. These results are consistent with those previously reported on for men of other nationalities.