A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

Developmental and physiological traits associated with high yield and stay-green phenotype in wheat

Water availability is a key limiting factor in wheat production in the northern grain belt of Australia. Varieties with improved adaptation to such conditions are actively sought. The CIMMYT wheat line SeriM82 has shown a significant yield advantage in multi-environment screening trials in this region. The objective of this study was to identify the physiological basis of the adaptive traits underpinning this advantage. Six detailed experiments were conducted to compare the growth, development, and yield of SeriM82 with that of the adapted cultivar, Hartog. The experiments were undertaken in field environments that represented the range of moisture availability conditions commonly encountered by winter crops grown on the deep Vertosol soils of this region. The yield of SeriM82 was 6-28% greater than that of Hartog, and SeriM82 exhibited a stay-green phenotype by maintaining green leaf area longer during the grain-filling period in all environments where yield was significantly greater than Hartog. However, where the availability of deep soil moisture was limited, SeriM82 failed to exhibit significantly greater yield or to express the stay-green phenotype. Thus, the stay-green phenotype was closely associated with the yield advantage of SeriM82. SeriM82 also exhibited higher mean grain mass than Hartog in all environments. It is suggested that small differences in water use before anthesis, or greater water extraction from depth after anthesis, could underlie the stay-green phenotype. The inability of SeriM82 to exhibit stay-green and higher yield where deep soil moisture was depleted indicates that extraction of deep soil moisture is important.

Architectural modelling of maize under water stress

Two field experiments using maize (Pioneer 31H50) and three watering regimes [(i) irrigated for the whole crop cycle, until anthesis, (ii) not at all (experiment 1) and (iii) fully irrigated and rain grown for the whole crop cycle (experiment 2)] were conducted at Gatton, Australia, during the 2003-04 season. Data on crop ontogeny, leaf, sheath and internode lengths and leaf width, and senescence were collected at 1- to 3-day intervals. A glasshouse experiment during 2003 quantified the responses of leaf shape and leaf presentation to various levels of water stress. Data from experiment 1 were used to modify and parameterise an architectural model of maize (ADEL-Maize) to incorporate the impact of water stress on maize canopy characteristics. The modified model produced accurate fitted values for experiment 1 for final leaf area and plant height, but values during development for leaf area were lower than observed data. Crop duration was reasonably well fitted and differences between the fully irrigated and rain-grown crops were accurately predicted. Final representations of maize crop canopies were realistic. Possible explanations for low values of leaf area are provided. The model requires further development using data from the glasshouse study and before being validated using data from experiment 2 and other independent data. It will then be used to extend functionality in architectural models of maize. With further research and development, the model should be particularly useful in examining the response of maize production to water stress including improved prediction of total biomass and grain yield. This will facilitate improved simulation of plant growth and development processes allowing investigation of genotype by environment interactions under conditions of suboptimal water supply.

Insecticide resistance and implications for future aphid management in Australian grains and pastures: A review

Aphids can cause substantial damage to cereals, oilseeds and legumes through direct feeding and through the transmission of plant pathogenic viruses. Aphid-resistant varieties are only available for a limited number of crops. In Australia, growers often use prophylactic sprays to control aphids, but this strategy can lead to non-target effects and the development of insecticide resistance. Insecticide resistance is a problem in one aphid pest of Australian grains in Australia, the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae). Molecular analyses of field-collected samples demonstrate that amplified E4 esterase resistance to organophosphate insecticides is widespread in Australian grains across Australia. Knockdown resistance to pyrethroids is less abundant, but has an increased frequency in areas with known frequent use of these insecticides. Modified acetylcholinesterase resistance to dimethyl carbamates, such as pirimicarb, has not been found in Australia, nor has resistance to imidacloprid. Australian grain growers should consider control options that are less likely to promote insecticide resistance, and have reduced impacts on natural enemies. Research is ongoing in Australia and overseas to provide new strategies for aphid management in the future.

Host plant resistance in grain crops and prospects for invertebrate pest management in Australia: An overview

An integrated pest management (IPM) approach that relies on an array of tactics is adopted commonly in response to problems with pesticide-based production in many agricultural systems. Host plant resistance is often used as a fundamental component of an IPM system because of the generally compatible, complementary role that pest-resistant crops play with other tactics. Recent research and development in the resistance of legumes and cereals to aphids, sorghum midge resistance, and the resistance of canola varieties to mite and insect pests have shown the prospects of host plant resistance for developing IPM strategies against invertebrate pests in Australian grain crops. Furthermore, continuing advances in biotechnology provide the opportunity of using transgenic plants to enhance host plant resistance in grains.

Relative contributions of light interception and radiation use efficiency to the reduction of maize productivity under cold temperatures

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a chill-susceptible crop cultivated in northern latitude environments. The detrimental effects of cold on growth and photosynthetic activity have long been established. However, a general overview of how important these processes are with respect to the reduction of productivity reported in the field is still lacking. In this study, a model-assisted approach was used to dissect variations in productivity under suboptimal temperatures and quantify the relative contributions of light interception (PARc) and radiation use efficiency (RUE) from emergence to flowering. A combination of architectural and light transfer models was used to calculate light interception in three field experiments with two cold-tolerant lines and at two sowing dates. Model assessment confirmed that the approach was suitable to infer light interception. Biomass production was strongly affected by early sowings. RUE was identified as the main cause of biomass reduction during cold events. Furthermore, PARc explained most of the variability observed at flowering, its relative contributions being more or less important according to the climate experienced. Cold temperatures resulted in lower PARc, mainly because final leaf length and width were significantly reduced for all leaves emerging after the first cold occurrence. These results confirm that virtual plants can be useful as fine phenotyping tools. A scheme of action of cold on leaf expansion, light interception and radiation use efficiency is discussed with a view towards helping breeders define relevant selection criteria. This paper originates from a presentation at the 5th International Workshop on Functional–Structural Plant Models, Napier, New Zealand, November 2007.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Field and laboratory evaluations of fungicides for the control of brown spot (Corynespora cassiicola) and black spot (Asperisporium caricae) of papaya in far north Queensland, Australia

Several chemicals including strobilurins (pyraclostrobin and azoxystrobin), triazoles (difenoconazole and tebuconazole), dithiocarbamates (propineb, metiram, ziram and mancozeb) and the phthalimide chlorothalonil were evaluated in three field experiments in north Queensland, Australia, for the control of brown spot (caused by Corynespora cassiicola) and black spot (caused by Asperisporium caricae) of papaya. Chlorothalonil and pyraclostrobin were shown to be more effective than the industry standard, mancozeb, for the control of brown spot. In the black spot experiments, difenoconazole, pyraclostrobin and chlorothalonil used alone or in spray programs were as effective as, or better than, the industry standards, mancozeb and tebuconazole. Plants treated with pyraclostrobin and difenoconazole had more fruit unaffected by black spot (97% and 99% respectively) than plants treated with tebuconazole (51%), mancozeb (20%) and the untreated controls (1%). Laboratory tests also showed that A. caricae was more sensitive to difenoconazole (EC50 of 2ppm) than tebuconazole (EC50 of 14ppm). In 2007, off-label permits were obtained for chlorothalonil for control of brown spot and difenoconazole and chlorothalonil for the control of black spot of papaya.

Seed persistence in the field may be predicted by laboratory-controlled aging

Weed management is complicated by the presence of soil seed banks. The complexity of soil-seed interactions means that seed persistence in the field is often difficult to measure, let alone predict. Field trials, although accurate in their context, are time-consuming and expensive to conduct for individual species. Some ex situ techniques for estimating seed life expectancy have been proposed, but these fail to simulate the environmental complexity of the field. Also, it has been questioned whether techniques such as the controlled aging test (CAT) are useful indicators of field persistence. This study aimed to test the validity of the standard CAT (seed aging at 45 C and 60% relative humidity) in use at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, U.K., for predicting field seed-persistence. Comparison of seed persistence and CAT data for 27 northwest European species suggested a significant positive correlation of 0.31. Subsequently, 13 species of emerging and common weeds of Queensland were assessed for their seed longevity using the CAT. The seed longevity data of these species in the CAT were linked with field seed-persistence data according to three broad seed-persistence categories: <1 yr, 1 to 3 yr, and >3 yr. We discuss the scope for using the CAT as a tool for rapid assignment of species to these categories. There is a need for further studies that compare predictions of seed persistence based on the CAT with seed persistence in the field for a larger range of species and environments.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Urana subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum L. var. subterraneum)

Urana is a hardseeded, moderately early flowering F-5-derived crossbred subterranean clover of var. subterraneum [( Katz. et Morley) Zohary and Heller] developed by the collaborating organisations of the National Annual Pasture Legume Improvement Program. It has been selected for release as a new cultivar on the basis of its high winter and spring herbage production and overall field performance relative to other subterranean clovers of similar maturity. Urana is recommended for sowing in Western Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland. It is best suited to well-drained, moderately acidic soils in areas with a growing season of 5 - 7 months, which extends into mid-October. Urana is suited to phase farming and crop rotations. It has been granted Plant Breeders Rights in Australia.

Analysing industry needs to fine tune IPM project activities

As a first step to better targeting the activities of a project for improving management of western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentialis, (WFT) in field grown vegetable crops, we surveyed growers, consultants and other agribusiness personnel in two regions of Queensland. Using face-to-face interviews, we collected data on key pests and measures used to manage them, the importance of WFT and associated viral diseases, sources of pest management information and additional skills and knowledge needed by growers and industry. Responses were similar in the two regions. While capsicum growers in one northern Queensland district had suffered serious losses from WFT damage in 2002, in general the pest was not seen as a major problem. In cucurbit crops, the silverleaf whitefly (Bemisia tabaci biotype B) was considered the most difficult insect pest to manage. Pest control tactics were largely based on pesticides although many respondents mentioned non-chemical methods such as good farm hygiene practices, control of weed hosts and regular crop monitoring, particularly when prompted. Respondents wanted to know more about pest identification, biology and damage, spray application and the best use of insecticides. Natural enemies were mentioned infrequently. Keeping up to date with available pesticide options, availability of new chemicals and options for a district-wide approach to managing pests emerged as key issues. Growers identified agricultural distributors, consultants, Queensland Department of Primary Industries staff, other growers and their own experience as important sources of information. Field days, workshops and seminars did not rank highly. Busy vegetable growers wanted these activities to be short and relevant, and preferred to be contacted by post and facsimile rather than email. In response to these results, we are focusing on three core, interrelated project extension strategies: (i) short workshops, seminars and farm walks to provide opportunities for discussion, training and information sharing with growers and their agribusiness advisors; (ii) communication via newsletters and information leaflets; (iii) support for commercialisation of services.

Models for the field-based toxicity of copper and zinc salts to wheat in 11 Australian soils and comparison to laboratory-based models

Laboratory-based relationships that model the phytotoxicity of metals using soil properties have been developed. This paper presents the first field-based phytotoxicity relationships. Wheat(Triticum aestivum L) was grown at 11 Australian field sites at which soil was spiked with copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) salts. Toxicity was measured as inhibition of plant growth at 8 weeks and grain yield at harvest. The added Cu and Zn EC10 values for both endpoints ranged from approximately 3 to 4760 mg/kg. There were no relationships between field-based 8-week biomass and grain yield toxicity values for either metal. Cu toxicity was best modelled using pH and organic carbon content while Zn toxicity was best modelled using pH and the cation exchange capacity. The best relationships estimated toxicity within a factor of two of measured values. Laboratory-based phytotoxicity relationships could not accurately predict field-based phytotoxicity responses.

Incompressible boundary layer for longitudinal flow over a cylinder with an applied magnetic field

The flow, heat and mass transfer problem for a steady laminar incompressible boundary layer flow in an electrically conducting fluid over a longitudinal cylinder with an applied magnetic field has been studied. The partial differential equations governing the flow have been solved numerically using an implicit finite-difference scheme. The results are found to be strongly dependent on the magnetic field and dissipation parameter. The effect of the mass transfer is more pronounced on the skin friction than on the heat transfer. The results have been compared with those of the series solution, the asymptotic solution, the Glauert and Lighthill's solution, local similarity, local nonsimilarity and difference-differential methods. Good agreement is found with all of them, except with the results of the local similarity and series solution methods.