936 resultados para errors-in-variables model


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In situ diffusion experiments are performed in geological formations at underground research laboratories to overcome the limitations of laboratory diffusion experiments and investigate scale effects. Tracer concentrations are monitored at the injection interval during the experiment (dilution data) and measured from host rock samples around the injection interval at the end of the experiment (overcoring data). Diffusion and sorption parameters are derived from the inverse numerical modeling of the measured tracer data. The identifiability and the uncertainties of tritium and Na-22(+) diffusion and sorption parameters are studied here by synthetic experiments having the same characteristics as the in situ diffusion and retention (DR) experiment performed on Opalinus Clay. Contrary to previous identifiability analyses of in situ diffusion experiments, which used either dilution or overcoring data at approximate locations, our analysis of the parameter identifiability relies simultaneously on dilution and overcoring data, accounts for the actual position of the overcoring samples in the claystone, uses realistic values of the standard deviation of the measurement errors, relies on model identification criteria to select the most appropriate hypothesis about the existence of a borehole disturbed zone and addresses the effect of errors in the location of the sampling profiles. The simultaneous use of dilution and overcoring data provides accurate parameter estimates in the presence of measurement errors, allows the identification of the right hypothesis about the borehole disturbed zone and diminishes other model uncertainties such as those caused by errors in the volume of the circulation system and the effective diffusion coefficient of the filter. The proper interpretation of the experiment requires the right hypothesis about the borehole disturbed zone. A wrong assumption leads to large estimation errors. The use of model identification criteria helps in the selection of the best model. Small errors in the depth of the overcoring samples lead to large parameter estimation errors. Therefore, attention should be paid to minimize the errors in positioning the depth of the samples. The results of the identifiability analysis do not depend on the particular realization of random numbers. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

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Any functionally important mutation is embedded in an evolutionary matrix of other mutations. Cladistic analysis, based on this, is a method of investigating gene effects using a haplotype phylogeny to define a set of tests which localize causal mutations to branches of the phylogeny. Previous implementations of cladistic analysis have not addressed the issue of analyzing data from related individuals, though in human studies, family data are usually needed to obtain unambiguous haplotypes. In this study, a method of cladistic analysis is described in which haplotype effects are parameterized in a linear model which accounts for familial correlations. The method was used to study the effect of apolipoprotein (Apo) B gene variation on total-, LDL-, and HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, and Apo B levels in 121 French families. Five polymorphisms defined Apo B haplotypes: the signal peptide Insertion/deletion, Bsp 1286I, XbaI, MspI, and EcoRI. Eleven haplotypes were found, and a haplotype phylogeny was constructed and used to define a set of tests of haplotype effects on lipid and apo B levels.^ This new method of cladistic analysis, the parametric method, found significant effects for single haplotypes for all variables. For HDL-cholesterol, 3 clusters of evolutionarily-related haplotypes affecting levels were found. Haplotype effects accounted for about 10% of the genetic variance of triglyceride and HDL-cholesterol levels. The results of the parametric method were compared to those of a method of cladistic analysis based on permutational testing. The permutational method detected fewer haplotype effects, even when modified to account for correlations within families. Simulation studies exploring these differences found evidence of systematic errors in the permutational method due to the process by which haplotype groups were selected for testing.^ The applicability of cladistic analysis to human data was shown. The parametric method is suggested as an improvement over the permutational method. This study has identified candidate haplotypes for sequence comparisons in order to locate the functional mutations in the Apo B gene which may influence plasma lipid levels. ^

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Serotonin (5-HT) neurotransmission deficits have been implicated in impulsive aggression. A Trp-free beverage of amino acids competitively inhibits Trp uptake into the brain for 5-HT synthesis and also lowers endogenous plasma Trp for several hours. This has worsened mood and/or increased aggressive behavior, especially in hostile persons or those with histories of depression. In 24 community-recruited men (12 each with and without significant aggression histories), aggressive and impulsive behavior in the laboratory was assessed before and after plasma Trp depletion and Trp loading. In the aggression model, subjects were provoked by periodic subtractions of participation earnings, and these subtractions were blamed on a ficitious other participant. Aggression was measured as the responses the subject made to subtract money from his antagonist. Impulsiveness was operationalized as: (1) the choice of smaller reward after a shorter delay over having to wait longer to receive a larger reward, and (2) “false alarm” commission errors in a modified Continuous Performance Task, which represent a failure to inhibit responding to stimuli similar (but not identical) to target stimuli. Finally, plasma cortisol and Trp were measured under each condition immediately following a aggression testing session when subjects were highly provoked. I hypothesized that 5-HT may tonically modulate (inhibit) the hypothalmnic-pituitary-adrenal stress response, such that Trp depletion may enhance the cortisol response to high provocation in aggressive men. ^ Trp depletion had no effect in the laboratory tasks purported to measure impulsive behavior, and failed to cause increases in aggressive behavior under low provocation conditions. Under higher provocation, however, aggressive responses we re elevated under Trp-depleted conditions relative to Trp-loaded conditions in aggressive men, whereas the reverse was true in nonaggressive men. Cortisol levels nonsignificantly paralled the group differences in aggression under Trp-depleted and Trp-loaded conditions. Aggressive men achieved lower plasma Trp levels after Trp loading than did nonaggressive men, possibly due to heavy alcohol use histories. The high post-loading plasma Trp levels in nonaggressive men tended also to correlate with their aggressive responding rates, due perhaps to increases in other psychoactive Trp metabolites. ^

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Reactive oxygen intermediates (ROI) contribute to neuronal injury in cerebral ischemia and trauma. In this study we explored the role of ROI in bacterial meningitis. Meningitis caused by group B streptococci in infant rats led to two distinct forms of neuronal injury, areas of necrosis in the cortex and neuronal loss in the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, the latter showing evidence for apoptosis. Staining of brain sections with diaminobenzidine after perfusion with manganese buffer and measurement of lipid peroxidation products in brain homogenates both provided evidence that meningitis led to the generation of ROI. Treatment with the radical scavenger alpha-phenyl-tert-butyl nitrone (PBN) (100 mg/kg q8h i.p.) beginning at the time of infection completely abolished ROI detection and the increase in lipidperoxidation. Cerebral cortical perfusion was reduced in animals with meningitis to 37.5+/-21.0% of uninfected controls (P < 0.05), and PBN restored cortical perfusion to 72.0+/-8.1% of controls (P < 0.05 vs meningitis). PBN also completely prevented neuronal injury in the cortex and hippocampus, when started at the time of infection (P < 0.02), and significantly reduced both forms of injury, when started 18 h after infection together with antibiotics (P < 0.004 for cortex and P < 0.001 for hippocampus). These data indicate that the generation of ROI is a major contributor to cerebral ischemia and necrotic and apoptotic neuronal injury in this model of neonatal meningitis.

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Dopaminergic signals play a mathematically precise role in reward-related learning, and variations in dopaminergic signaling have been implicated in vulnerability to addiction. Here, we provide a detailed overview of the relationship between theoretical, mathematical, and experimental accounts of phasic dopamine signaling, with implications for the role of learning-related dopamine signaling in addiction and related disorders. We describe the theoretical and behavioral characteristics of model-free learning based on errors in the prediction of reward, including step-by-step explanations of the underlying equations. We then use recent insights from an animal model that highlights individual variation in learning during a Pavlovian conditioning paradigm to describe overlapping aspects of incentive salience attribution and model-free learning. We argue that this provides a computationally coherent account of some features of addiction.

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This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for midlatitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m−2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m−2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

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Air was sampled from the porous firn layer at the NEEM site in Northern Greenland. We use an ensemble of ten reference tracers of known atmospheric history to characterise the transport properties of the site. By analysing uncertainties in both data and the reference gas atmospheric histories, we can objectively assign weights to each of the gases used for the depth-diffusivity reconstruction. We define an objective root mean square criterion that is minimised in the model tuning procedure. Each tracer constrains the firn profile differently through its unique atmospheric history and free air diffusivity, making our multiple-tracer characterisation method a clear improvement over the commonly used single-tracer tuning. Six firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1σ Gaussian distribution. A comparison between two replicate boreholes drilled 64 m apart shows differences in measured mixing ratio profiles that exceed the experimental error. We find evidence that diffusivity does not vanish completely in the lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. The ice age- gas age difference (1 age) at the firn-ice transition is calculated to be 182+3−9 yr. We further present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we introduce diagnostic scenarios designed to probe specific aspects of the model physics. Our results show that there are major differences in the way the models handle advective transport. Furthermore, diffusive fractionation of isotopes in the firn is poorly constrained by the models, which has consequences for attempts to reconstruct the isotopic composition of trace gases back in time using firn air and ice core records.

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This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.

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AIMS To determine efficacy of a minimally invasive (MI) surgical approach using a human MI lumbar retractor for canine lumbosacral dorsal laminectomy and partial discectomy and to compare this technique to the standard open surgical (OS) approach. METHODS Lumbosacral dorsal laminectomy and partial discectomy was performed on 16 large-breed canine cadavers using either a standard OS (n=8) or MI (n=8) approach. Skin and fascial incision length, procedure time, and intraoperative complications were recorded. Postoperatively specimens were evaluated for laminectomy and discectomy dimensions, and visible damage to the cauda equina and exiting nerve roots. RESULTS Median length of skin and fascial incisions in the OS group were longer than in the MI group (p<0.001). Median laminectomy length was similar between both approaches (p=0.234) but width was greater for the MI than OS approach (p=0.002). Both approaches achieved similar partial discectomy width (p=0.279). Overall surgical time was longer for MI approaches compared to OS, with a median of 18.5 (min 15.5, max 21.8) minutes for MI compared to 14.6 (min 13.1, max 16.9) minutes for OS (p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS The MI approach reduced incision lengths while retaining comparable laminectomy and discectomy dimensions. For this in vitro model the MI approach required more time to complete, but this difference may not be relevant in clinical cases. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Dogs undergoing lumbosacral dorsal laminectomy are commonly large-breed dogs. The traditional open approach requires a large skin incision and soft tissue dissection, especially in overweight animals. A MI approach accomplishing the same surgical result while minimising soft tissue trauma could reduce post-operative pain and recovery time, and may lower wound-related complications. Clinical studies are needed to confirm postoperative benefit and assess operating times in vivo.

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OBJECTIVE: New routes for cell transplantation into the brain need to be explored as intracerebral or intrathecal applications have a high risk to cause damage to the central nervous system. It has been hypothesized that transnasally administrated cells bypass the blood-brain barrier and migrate along the olfactory neural route into the brain and cerebrospinal fluid. Our goal is to confirm this hypothesis by transnasally administrating Wharton’s Jelly mesenchymal stem cells (WJ-MSC) and neural progenitor cells (NPC) to perinatal rats in a model of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury. STUDY DESIGN: Four-day-old Wistar rat pups, previously brain-damaged by combined hypoxic-ischemic and inflammatory insult, either received WJ-MSC or green fluorescent protein-expressing NPC: The heads of the rat pups were immobilized and 3 ml drops containing the cells (50’000 cells/ml) were placed on one nostril allowing it to be snorted. This procedure was repeated twice, alternating right to left nostril with an interval of one minute between administrations. The rat pups received a total of 600’000 cells. Animals were sacrificed 24h, 48h or 7 days after the application of the cells. Fixed brains were collected, embedded in paraffin and sectioned. RESULTS: Transplanted cells were found in the layers of the olfactory bulb (OB), the cerebral cortex, thalamus and the hippocampus. The amount of cells was highest in the OB. Animals treated with transnasally delivered stem cells showed significantly decreased gliosis compared to untreated animals. CONCLUSION: Our data show that transnasal delivery of WJ-MSC and NPC to the newborn brain after perinatal brain damage is successful. The cells not only migrate the brain, but also decrease scar formation and improve neurogenesis. Therefore, the non-invasive intranasal delivery of stem cells to the brain may be the preferred method for stem cell treatment of perinatal brain damage and should be preferred in future clinical trials.

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BACKGROUND Cam-type femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) resulting from an abnormal nonspherical femoral head shape leads to chondrolabral damage and is considered a cause of early osteoarthritis. A previously developed experimental ovine FAI model induces a cam-type impingement that results in localized chondrolabral damage, replicating the patterns found in the human hip. Biochemical MRI modalities such as T2 and T2* may allow for evaluation of the cartilage biochemistry long before cartilage loss occurs and, for that reason, may be a worthwhile avenue of inquiry. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked: (1) Does the histological grading of degenerated cartilage correlate with T2 or T2* values in this ovine FAI model? (2) How accurately can zones of degenerated cartilage be predicted with T2 or T2* MRI in this model? METHODS A cam-type FAI was induced in eight Swiss alpine sheep by performing a closing wedge intertrochanteric varus osteotomy. After ambulation of 10 to 14 weeks, the sheep were euthanized and a 3-T MRI of the hip was performed. T2 and T2* values were measured at six locations on the acetabulum and compared with the histological damage pattern using the Mankin score. This is an established histological scoring system to quantify cartilage degeneration. Both T2 and T2* values are determined by cartilage water content and its collagen fiber network. Of those, the T2* mapping is a more modern sequence with technical advantages (eg, shorter acquisition time). Correlation of the Mankin score and the T2 and T2* values, respectively, was evaluated using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. We used a hierarchical cluster analysis to calculate the positive and negative predictive values of T2 and T2* to predict advanced cartilage degeneration (Mankin ≥ 3). RESULTS We found a negative correlation between the Mankin score and both the T2 (p < 0.001, r = -0.79) and T2* values (p < 0.001, r = -0.90). For the T2 MRI technique, we found a positive predictive value of 100% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79%-100%) and a negative predictive value of 84% (95% CI, 67%-95%). For the T2* technique, we found a positive predictive value of 100% (95% CI, 79%-100%) and a negative predictive value of 94% (95% CI, 79%-99%). CONCLUSIONS T2 and T2* MRI modalities can reliably detect early cartilage degeneration in the experimental ovine FAI model. CLINICAL RELEVANCE T2 and T2* MRI modalities have the potential to allow for monitoring the natural course of osteoarthrosis noninvasively and to evaluate the results of surgical treatments targeted to joint preservation.

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Pregnant BALB/c mice have been widely used as an in vivo model to study Neospora caninum infection biology and to provide proof-of-concept for assessments of drugs and vaccines against neosporosis. The fact that this model has been used with different isolates of variable virulence, varying infection routes and differing methods to prepare the parasites for infection, has rendered the comparison of results from different laboratories impossible. In most studies, mice were infected with similar number of parasites (2 × 10(6)) as employed in ruminant models (10(7) for cows and 10(6) for sheep), which seems inappropriate considering the enormous differences in the weight of these species. Thus, for achieving meaningful results in vaccination and drug efficacy experiments, a refinement and standardization of this experimental model is necessary. Thus, 2 × 10(6), 10(5), 10(4), 10(3) and 10(2) tachyzoites of the highly virulent and well-characterised Nc-Spain7 isolate were subcutaneously inoculated into mice at day 7 of pregnancy, and clinical outcome, vertical transmission, parasite burden and antibody responses were compared. Dams from all infected groups presented nervous signs and the percentage of surviving pups at day 30 postpartum was surprisingly low (24%) in mice infected with only 10(2) tachyzoites. Importantly, infection with 10(5) tachyzoites resulted in antibody levels, cerebral parasite burden in dams and 100% mortality rate in pups, which was identical to infection with 2 × 10(6) tachyzoites. Considering these results, it is reasonable to lower the challenge dose to 10(5) tachyzoites in further experiments when assessing drugs or vaccine candidates.

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The purpose of this study was to determine whether depression is a factor in explaining the difference in sex behaviors among adolescents with different ethnic backgrounds, family and school contexts. We hypothesize that adolescents with a higher number of depressive symptoms are more likely to engage in sexual risk behaviors than adolescents with fewer depressive symptoms. Further, adolescent depression and sexual behaviors are mediated or moderated by individual characteristics, family and school contexts. ^ Background. large ethnic disparities exist in adolescent engagement in risky sexual behaviors, yet, there is little in the literature that explains these disparities. Studies of sexual behavior of youths abound; yet, there is little literature on the prevalence and correlates of depression or the association between depression and sexual behaviors among different ethnic groups. Objectives. (1) To determine ethnic differences in the prevalence of depressive symptoms using data collected through the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). (2) To determine predictors of sex risk behaviors among adolescents, including the role of depression. (3) To identify predictors of depression among these adolescents. Methods. Add Health data from wave 1 and wave 2 interviews of 7th–12th graders were analyzed using multivariate models constructed with both depression and sexual behavior as outcome variables. Logistic regression models determined whether and to what extent the independent variables, including depression, sex behaviors, demographic factors, individual and family characteristics, and school context were related to the probability of engaging in risky sexual behaviors. Results. Ethnic differences in depressive symptoms did not persist after demographic and contextual variables were included in the model. Sex behaviors all shared the hypothesized relationship with depressive symptoms. The odds of risky sex behaviors increased as number of depressive symptoms increased. Depression was predicted by marijuana use and having a serious argument with father for males at Wave 1 and by age and future orientation for females. Wave 2 depression was predicted by Wave 1 depression. ^

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Advances in medical technology, in genetics, and in clinical research have led to early detection of cancer, precise diagnosis, and effective treatment modalities. Decline in cancer incidence and mortality due to cancer has led to increased number of long-term survivors. However, the ethnic minority population has not experienced this decline and still continues to carry a disparate proportion of the cancer burden. Majority of the clinical research including survivorship studies have recruited and continue to recruit a convenient sample of middle- to upper-class Caucasian survivors. Thus, minorities are underrepresented in cancer research in terms of both clinical studies and in health related quality of life (HRQOL) studies. ^ Life style and diet have been associated with increased risk of breast cancer. High vegetable low fat diet has been shown to reduce recurrence of breast cancer and early death. The Women's Healthy Eating and Living Study is an ongoing multi-site randomized controlled trial that is evaluating the high-vegetable low fat diet in reducing the recurrence of breast cancer and early death. The purpose of this dissertation was to (1) compare the impact of the modified diet on the HRQOL during the first 12-month period on specific Minorities and matched Caucasians; (2) identify predictors that significantly impact the HRQOL of the study participants; and (3) using the structural equation modeling assess the impact of nutrition on the HRQOL of the intervention group participants. Findings suggest that there are no significant differences in change in HRQOL between Minorities and Caucasians; between Minorities in the intervention group and those in the comparison group; and between women in the intervention group and those in the comparison group. Minority indicator variable and Intervention/Comparison group indicator variable were not found to be good predictors of HRQOL. Although the structural equation models suggested viable representation of the relationship between the antecedent variables, the mediating variables and the two outcome variables, the impact of nutrition was not statistically significant to be included in the model. This dissertation, by analyzing the HRQOL of minorities in the WHEL Study, attempted to add to the knowledge base specific to minority cancer survivors. ^