Multi-Model Data Fusion to Improve an Early Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

Maize Domestication and Anti-Herbivore Defences: Leaf-Specific Dynamics during Early Ontogeny of Maize and Its Wild Ancestors

As a consequence of artificial selection for specific traits, crop plants underwent considerable genotypic and phenotypic changes during the process of domestication. These changes may have led to reduced resistance in the cultivated plant due to shifts in resource allocation from defensive traits to increased growth rates and yield. Modern maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) was domesticated from its ancestor Balsas teosinte (Z. mays ssp. parviglumis) approximately 9000 years ago. Although maize displays a high genetic overlap with its direct ancestor and other annual teosintes, several studies show that maize and its ancestors differ in their resistance phenotypes with teosintes being less susceptible to herbivore damage. However, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Here we addressed the question to what extent maize domestication has affected two crucial chemical and one physical defence traits and whether differences in their expression may explain the differences in herbivore resistance levels. The ontogenetic trajectories of 1,4-benzoxazin-3-ones, maysin and leaf toughness were monitored for different leaf types across several maize cultivars and teosinte accessions during early vegetative growth stages. We found significant quantitative and qualitative differences in 1,4-benzoxazin-3-one accumulation in an initial pairwise comparison, but we did not find consistent differences between wild and cultivated genotypes during a more thorough examination employing several cultivars/accessions. Yet, 1,4-benzoxazin-3-one levels tended to decline more rapidly with plant age in the modern maize cultivars. Foliar maysin levels and leaf toughness increased with plant age in a leaf-specific manner, but were also unaffected by domestication. Based on our findings we suggest that defence traits other than the ones that were investigated are responsible for the observed differences in herbivore resistance between teosinte and maize. Furthermore, our results indicate that single pairwise comparisons may lead to false conclusions regarding the effects of domestication on defensive and possibly other traits.

Wetland-Archaeology in the Alpine Space. Overview and actual research issues.

First indications of prehistoric sites in lakes of Switzerland go back more than 200 years and in 1854 Ferdinand Keller (1800-1881) published his famous book The Celtic Pile Dwellings in Swiss Lakes. Since these times, large-scale rescue excavations as well as survey and research projects have extended our knowledge about Neolithic and Bronze Age settlements in lakes, bogs and rivers around the European Alps. In 2011 a representative choice of 111 sites out of nearly 1000 in six countries around the Alps (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia and Switzerland) were recognized by the UNESCO World Heritage committee as serial World Heritage. The lecture will give a general overview on prehistoric lake dwellings around the Alps (distribution, types of lakes/bogs and environment of sites, chronology/cultural units in the time scale 5300 to 800 BC) and present examples of well-documented settlement structures. The intense use of dendrochronological dating allowed the building up of a well-fixed chronological framework. In some cases dendrochronology is the basis for year-by-year reconstructions of prehistoric village biographies and detailed insights in the life cycle of early agrarian settlements. Beside these local events the grouped repartition of lake dwelling remains on the time scale makes a more global correlation between Holocene lake levels and the preservation of archaeological layers likely.

Vertical mobility in the Swiss Alps. The alpine pass Schnidejoch and indications of early pastoralism.

Since 2003 a melting ice field on the Schnidejoch pass (2756 a.s.l) delivered several hundred objects from the Neolithic, the Bronze and Iron Age as well as from Roman and Early Medieval times. The oldest finds date to the beginning 5th millennium BC, the youngest ones date around 1000 AD. Most of the objects stem from the Neolithic and the Bronze Age and are of organic origin. A series of more than 70 radiocarbon dates confirms that the Schnidejoch pass, linking the Bernese Highlands with the River Rhone valley, was in use at least from 4800–4500 BC on. The accessibility of the pass was easy when the glaciers descending from the nearby Wildhorn mountain range (peak on 3248 a.s.l) were in a retreating phase. In contrary glacier advances closed the way to the pass. In 2010 a palaeoecological study of sediment cores researched nearby Lake Iffig (2065 m a.s.l.). The results show clear indications of early human impact in this alpine area. Linking archaeological finds from Schnidejoch pass and River Rhone valley with the palaeoecological data can be interpreted as early indications of alpine pastoralism and transhumance. The combined archaeological and paleoecolical research allows to explain vertical mobility in the Swiss Alps.

Material culture entanglements of early wetland sites in central Switzerland (4300-3850 BC)

In central Switzerland, the earliest wetland settlements with definitely attested finds and features date into the second half of the 5th millennium BC. Combining the information they have yielded with that from dryland sites, we can construct a detailed picture of material culture at the turn of the 5th to the 4th millennium. On this basis, the definition of clearly delimited archaeological cultures seems questionable, not only from a theoretical point of view. Similiarities and differences in the pottery show small-scale regional units defined via vessel forms as well as stylistic and technological aspects. Yet there are also inter-regional connections: roundbased vessels with opposing handles are typical for Lake Zurich, central and western Switzerland, the Valais and the central Rhône valley. In turn, ‘foreign‘ types such as shoulder-band beakers indicate regular connections between groups living in central Switzerland and those in Alsace and southern Germany. Are these beakers ‘imports‘ or locally produced items (‘imitations‘) indicating the adoption of ‘foreign‘ vessel types and concepts? This and similar material culture phenomena result in a picture of many material entanglements and problematise the kinds of relationships and mobility which might have existed. Our paper addresses these questions and discusses how and whether these interwoven connections changed in the early 4th millennium.

Reference values for digital X-ray radiogrammetry parameters in children and adolescents in comparison to estimates in patients with distal radius fractures.

The first objective of this study was to determine normative digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR) values, based on original digital images, in a pediatric population (aged 6-18 years). The second aim was to compare these reference data with patients suffering from distal radius fractures, whereas both cohorts originated from the same geographical region and were evaluated using the same technical parameters as well as inclusion and exclusion criteria. DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI of the metacarpal bones II-IV were assessed on standardized digital hand radiographs, without printing or scanning procedures. DXR parameters were estimated separately by gender and among six age groups; values in the fracture group were compared to age- and gender-matched normative data using Student's t tests and Z scores. In the reference cohort (150 boys, 138 girls), gender differences were found in bone mineral density (DXR-BMD), with higher values for girls from 11 to 14 years and for boys from 15 to 18 years (p < 0.05). Girls had higher normative metacarpal index (DXR-MCI) values than boys, with significant differences at 11-14 years (p < 0.05). In the case-control investigation, the fracture group (95 boys, 69 girls) presented lower DXR-BMD at 15-18 years in boys and 13-16 years in girls vs. the reference cohort (p < 0.05); DXR-MCI was lower at 11-18 years in boys and 11-16 years in girls (p < 0.05). Mean Z scores in the fracture group for DXR-BMD were -0.42 (boys) and -0.46 (girls), and for DXR-MCI were -0.51 (boys) and -0.53 (girls). These findings indicate that the fully digital DXR technique can be accurately applied in pediatric populations ≥ 6 years of age. The lower DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI values in the fracture group suggest promising early identification of individuals with increased fracture risk, without the need for additional radiation exposure, enabling the initiation of prevention strategies to possibly reduce the incidence of osteoporosis later in life.

A Forgotten Original or an Original Copy? On MS. Douce 387 in the Bodleian Library: Collecting Early Modern Festival Books

Focusing on one manuscript, today in the Bodleian Library, Oxford, this chapter deals with the question how early modern objects became collectable items. The manuscript is categorized as MS. Douce 387 and its name indicates that it came from the collection of Francis Douce (1757–1834), who was keeper of manuscripts in the British Museum from 1799 until 1811. MS. Douce 387 is described in the catalogue of the Douce’ian collection as the “presentation copy with coloured designs by Marten de Vos and others” of the 1595 printed festival book Descriptio publicae gratulationis … in adventu … Ernesti archiducis Austriae. This festival book, printed in Antwerp’s Plantin-Moretus press, was commissioned by the magistrate of the city of Antwerp to commemorate the Joyous Entry of Archduke Ernest of Austria from June 1594; that an “archducal copy” bound in red velvet was commissioned as well and was owned by the Archduke is know as well. However, first research showed that Oxford copy cannot be this “archducal copy” or Marten de Vos’s artist’s copy even though it is the only know version with a handwritten text and hand-drawn illustrations. It rather should be examined as something totally different altogether. The main question remains why someone then commissioned a hand made version of this festival book, something unknown for other books of this genre? Why would someone between 1600 and 1800 sit down and copy texts and prints from a collectable book? Why was there such an on-going interest in early modern festival books? Could this manuscript be the only later made copy of the “archducal volume” or is it rather a forgery made for the European collectors’ market?

Implant therapy in a surgical specialty clinic: an analysis of patients, indications, surgical procedures, risk factors, and early failures

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to analyze the patient pool referred to a specialty clinic for implant surgery over a 3-year period. MATERIALS AND METHODS All patients receiving dental implants between 2008 and 2010 at the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology were included in the study. As primary outcome parameters, the patients were analyzed according to the following criteria: age, sex, systemic diseases, and indication for therapy. For the inserted implants, the type of surgical procedure, the types of implants placed, postsurgical complications, and early failures were recorded. A logistic regression analysis was performed to identify possible local and systemic risk factors for complications. As a secondary outcome, data regarding demographics and surgical procedures were compared with the findings of a historic study group (2002 to 2004). RESULTS A total of 1,568 patients (792 women and 776 men; mean age, 52.6 years) received 2,279 implants. The most frequent indication was a single-tooth gap (52.8%). Augmentative procedures were performed in 60% of the cases. Tissue-level implants (72.1%) were more frequently used than bone-level implants (27.9%). Regarding dimensions of the implants, a diameter of 4.1 mm (59.7%) and a length of 10 mm (55.0%) were most often utilized. An early failure rate of 0.6% was recorded (13 implants). Patients were older and received more implants in the maxilla, and the complexity of surgical interventions had increased when compared to the patient pool of 2002 to 2004. CONCLUSION Implant therapy performed in a surgical specialty clinic utilizing strict patient selection and evidence-based surgical protocols showed a very low early failure rate of 0.6%.

Are there signs of change in gendered language use in children's early reading material?

In this study we investigate the relative frequencies of female and male terms in early reading material for children using the Children’s Printed Word Database as a resource. As roles of females and males have changed over time it is of interest to see if there has been a corresponding change in representations of females and males in children’s books. We carried out analyses regarding different words related to gender. Except for nouns referring to relatives, we found in all word groups a preponderance of male terms. The imbalance of male and female pronouns is equivalent to that reported by Carroll, Davies, and Richman (1971) in a frequency count of printed words in children’s book in the USA conducted some 40 years ago. The results are discussed in terms of gender inequality in reading materials and the development of social mores and stereotypical ideas.

The Five Senses in Medieval and Early Modern England

Edited by Annette Kern-Stähler, Beatrix Busse, and Wietse de Boer The essays collected in The Five Senses in Medieval and Early Modern England examine the interrelationships between sense perception and secular and Christian cultures in England from the medieval into the early modern periods. They address canonical texts and writers in the fields of poetry, drama, homiletics, martyrology and early scientific writing, and they espouse methods associated with the fields of corpus linguistics, disability studies, translation studies, art history and archaeology, as well as approaches derived from traditional literary studies. Together, these papers constitute a major contribution to the growing field of sensorial research that will be of interest to historians of perception and cognition as well as to historians with more generalist interests in medieval and early modern England.

Profile Effects in Early Bilingual Language and Literacy

Bilingual children's language and literacy is stronger in some domains than others. Reanalysis of data from a broad-scale study of monolingual English and bilingual Spanish-English learners in Miami provided a clear demonstration of "profile effects," where bilingual children perform at varying levels compared to monolinguals across different test types. The profile effects were strong and consistent across conditions of socioeconomic status, language in the home, and school setting (two way or English immersion). The profile effects indicated comparable performance of bilingual and monolingual children in basic reading tasks, but lower vocabulary scores for the bilinguals in both languages. Other test types showed intermediate scores in bilinguals, again with substantial consistency across groups. These profiles are interpreted as primarily due to the "distributed characteristic" of bilingual lexical knowledge, the tendency for bilingual individuals to know some words in one language but not the other and vice versa.

Petrology and geochemistry at DSDP Site 89-462

The 16 samples of Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Leg 89 basalts that we analyzed for whole rock major and trace elements and for mineralogic compositions are identical to some of the basalts recovered during Leg 61. Leg 89 samples are mostly olivine-plagioclase-clinopyroxene sparsely phyric basalts and exhibit a wide variety of textures. These basalts have lower TiO2 at a given Mg/(Mg+Fe2+)*100 than MORB (midocean ridge basalt). We recognize three major chemical types of basalts in the Nauru Basin. We believe that different degrees of partial melting, modified by fractional crystallization and possibly by magma mixing at shallow depths, can explain the chemical differences among the three groups. This petrogenetic model is consistent with the observed downhole chemical-chronostratigraphic relations of the samples. New 87Sr/86Sr and U3Nd/144Nd analyses of basalt samples from DSDP Site 462 indicate that the Nauru Basin igneous complex is within the Sr-Nd isotopic range of ocean island basalt. Thus the Nauru Basin igneous complex resembles MORB in many aspects of its chemistry, morphology, and secondary alteration patterns (Larson, Schlanger, et al., 1981), but not in its isotopic characteristics. If it were not for the unambiguous evidence that the Nauru Basin complex was erupted off-ridge, the complex could easily be interpreted as normal oceanic layer 2. For this reason, we speculate that the Nauru Basin igneous complex was produced in an oceanic riftlike environment when multiple, fast-propagating rifts were formed during the fast seafloor spreading episode in the Cretaceous.

(Table 1) Occurrences of volcanic ash at DSDP Leg 78A Holes

Air-fall volcanic ash recovered at Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 541, 542, and 543 on and east of the toe of the Barbados Ridge delineate middle and late Miocene, early Pliocene, and Pleistocene-Quaternary pulses of explosive volcanism in the Lesser Antilles arc. The ash beds at Site 541 allow precise correlation of intervals repeated by a probable reverse fault at this convergent margin.

Mid-Cretaceous planktonic foraminifera off central Morocco

Sites 545 and 547 collectively penetrated 629 m of mid-Cretaceous strata (upper Aptian to upper Cenomanian) off central Morocco during Leg 79 of the Deep Sea Drilling Project. Site 545, at the base of the steep Mazagan Escarpment, records a virtually complete succession of hemipelagic sediments of early late Aptian to middle Cenomanian age. Minor faunal recycling occurred throughout much of the upper Aptian to middle Albian part of the sequence (Cores 55 through 41), reflecting bottom currents along the Mazagan Escarpment. This may be related to the strong upwelling regime and high surface water productivity over Site 545 during the latest Aptian through middle Albian. The upwelling system ceased rather abruptly in this area in late middle Albian time. Recycling of older strata by bottom currents also ceased in the late middle Albian and resulted in a slower average accumulation rate in the upper Albian to middle Cenomanian section of Site 545 (Cores 40 through 28). However, intervals of pebbly claystone conglomerates in Cores 40 and 34 record sporadic instability in the slope adjacent to Site 545. Site 547, located only about 15 km seaward, is situated in a small sub-basin adjacent to the basement block drilled by Site 544. It contains an expanded upper Albian to upper Cenomanian sequence as a result of the numerous conglomeratic intervals throughout much of the section. In contrast to Site 545, the conglomerates were not derived from older strata cropping out on the Mazagan Escarpment; rather, they originated penecontemporaneously from a local unstable slope. A detailed biostratigraphic framework based on planktonic foraminifers is established for the mid-Cretaceous sections of Sites 545 and 547 and a new composite zonal scheme is proposed for the early late Aptian through early late Cenomanian interval. Fifty-five species are recognized and illustrated