Anisotropic convection model for the earth's mantle

The paper presents a theory for modeling flow in anisotropic, viscous rock. This theory has originally been developed for the simulation of large deformation processes including the folding and kinking of multi-layered visco-elastic rock (Muhlhaus et al. [1,2]). The orientation of slip planes in the context of crystallographic slip is determined by the normal vector - the director - of these surfaces. The model is applied to simulate anisotropic mantle convection. We compare the evolution of flow patterns, Nusselt number and director orientations for isotropic and anisotropic rheologies. In the simulations we utilize two different finite element methodologies: The Lagrangian Integration Point Method Moresi et al [8] and an Eulerian formulation, which we implemented into the finite element based pde solver Fastflo (www.cmis.csiro.au/Fastflo/). The reason for utilizing two different finite element codes was firstly to study the influence of an anisotropic power law rheology which currently is not implemented into the Lagrangian Integration point scheme [8] and secondly to study the numerical performance of Eulerian (Fastflo)- and Lagrangian integration schemes [8]. It turned out that whereas in the Lagrangian method the Nusselt number vs time plot reached only a quasi steady state where the Nusselt number oscillates around a steady state value the Eulerian scheme reaches exact steady states and produces a high degree of alignment (director orientation locally orthogonal to velocity vector almost everywhere in the computational domain). In the simulations emergent anisotropy was strongest in terms of modulus contrast in the up and down-welling plumes. Mechanisms for anisotropic material behavior in the mantle dynamics context are discussed by Christensen [3]. The dominant mineral phases in the mantle generally do not exhibit strong elastic anisotropy but they still may be oriented by the convective flow. Thus viscous anisotropy (the main focus of this paper) may or may not correlate with elastic or seismic anisotropy.

A 2D numerical model for simulating the physics of fault systems

Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.

Heterogeneity, saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in Latin America

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of national saving-investment relationship in order to determine the degree of capital mobility in 12 Latin American countries. The analytically relevant correlation is the short-term one, defined as that between changes in saving and investment. Of special interest is the speed at which variables return to the long run equilibrium relationship, which is interpreted as being negatively related to the degree of capital mobility. The long run correlation, in turn, captures the coefficient implied by the solvency constraint. We find that heterogeneity and cross-section dependence completely change the estimation of the long run coefficient. Besides we obtain a more precise short run coefficient estimate compared to the existent estimates in the literature. There is evidence of an intermediate degree of capital mobility, and the coefficients are extremely stable over time.

Social Movements and the Dynamics of Rural Territorial Development in Latin America

This special section brings together 4 of the 12 studies conducted within a research program analyzing the relationships among social mobilization, governance. and rural development in contemporary Latin America. The introduction Lives an overview of the contemporary significance of social movements For rural development dynamics in the region, and of the principal insights of the section papers and the broader research program of which they were a part. This significance varies Lis an effect of two distinct and uneven geographics: the geography of social movements themselves and the geography of the rural political economy. The effects that movements have oil the political economy of rural development also depend significantly oil internal characteristics of these movements. The paper identifies several such characteristics. The general pattern is that movements have had far more effect oil widening the political inclusiveness of rural development than they have oil improving its economic inclusiveness and dynamism. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Characterization of temperature dependent and substrate-binding cleft movements in Bacillus circulans family 11 xylanase: A molecular dynamics investigation

Background: Xylanases (EC 3.2.1.8) hydrolyze xylan, one of the most abundant plant polysaccharides found in nature, and have many potential applications in biotechnology. Methods: Molecular dynamics simulations were used to investigate the effects of temperature between 298 to 338 K and xylobiose binding on residues located in the substrate-binding cleft of the family 11 xylanase from Bacillus circulans (BcX). Results: In the absence of xylobiose the BcX exhibits temperature dependent movement of the thumb region which adopts an open conformation exposing the active site at the optimum catalytic temperature (328 K). In the presence of substrate, the thumb region restricts access to the active site at all temperatures, and this conformation is maintained by substrate/protein hydrogen bonds involving active site residues, including hydrogen bonds between Tyr69 and the 2` hydroxyl group of the substrate. Substrate access to the active site is regulated by temperature dependent motions that are restricted to the thumb region, and the BcX/substrate complex is stabilized by extensive intermolecular hydrogen bonding with residues in the active site. General significance: These results call for a revision of both the ""hinge-bending"" model for the activity of group 11 xylanases, and the role of Tyr69 in the catalytic mechanism. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional approximation for tidal dynamics in coastal aquifers: Capillarity correction

Most previous investigations on tide-induced watertable fluctuations in coastal aquifers have been based on one-dimensional models that describe the processes in the cross-shore direction alone, assuming negligible along-shore variability. A recent study proposed a two-dimensional approximation for tide-induced watertable fluctuations that took into account coastline variations. Here, we further develop this approximation in two ways, by extending the approximation to second order and by taking into account capillary effects. Our results demonstrate that both effects can markedly influence watertable fluctuations. In particular, with the first-order approximation, the local damping rate of the tidal signal could be subject to sizable errors.

Seasonal dynamics of a drosophilid (Diptera) assemblage and its potencial as bioindicator in open environments

Drosophila Fallen, 1823 (Diptera, Drosophilidae) is for long a well-established model organism for genetics and evolutionary research. The ecology of these flies, however, has only recently been better studied. Recent papers show that Drosophila assemblies can be used as bioindicators of forested environment degradation. In this work the bioindicator potential of drosophilids was evaluated in a naturally opened environment, a coastal strand-forest (restinga). Data from nine consecutive seasonal collections revealed strong temporal fluctuation pattern of the majority of Drosophila species groups. Drosophila willistoni group was more abundant at autumns, whereas D. cardini and D. tripunctata groups were, respectively, expressive at winters and springs, and D. repleta group at both seasons. The exotic species D. simulans Sturtevant, 1919 (from D. melanogaster group) and Zaprionus indianus Gupta, 1970 were most abundant at summers. Overall, the assemblage structure did not show the same characteristics of forested or urban environments, but was similar to the forests at winters and to cities at summers. This raises the question that this locality may already been under urbanization impact. Also, this can be interpreted as an easily invaded site for exotic species, what might lead to biotic homogenization and therefore can put in check the usage of drosophilid assemblages as bioindicators at open environments.

Religions and cultures: Religious dynamics in Latin America

The author seeks to analyse the relationships between religion and culture in Latin America, especially in Brazil, highlighting the fact that the different religions enjoy diverse relationships with culture in a single location. He also addresses the fact that religions interpret culture in different ways and these interpretations help define their conversion strategies and how best to confront opposing religions. For the sake of discussion, the author considers, hypothetically, a not-so-distant future in which Latin America becomes predominantly evangelical, and asks what will happen to Latin America`s supposed Catholic culture if the evangelical religions do indeed take over.

Numerical simulation of double-diffusion driven convective flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones

Numerical methods are used to simulate the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones. The double diffusion is caused by a combination of both the positive upward temperature gradient and the positive downward salinity concentration gradient within a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone, which is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In order to ensure the physical meaningfulness of the obtained numerical solutions, the numerical method used in this study is validated by a benchmark problem, for which the analytical solution to the critical Rayleigh number of the system is available. The theoretical value of the critical Rayleigh number of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system can be used to judge whether or not the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow can take place within the system. After the possibility of triggering the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow is theoretically validated for the numerical model of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system, the corresponding numerical solutions for the convective flow and temperature are directly coupled with a geochemical system. Through the numerical simulation of the coupled system between the convective fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transport and chemical reactions, we have investigated the effect of the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow on the rock alteration, which is the direct consequence of mineral redistribution due to its dissolution, transportation and precipitation, within the three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulation of dendrite growth during solidification

A comprehensive probabilistic model for simulating dendrite morphology and investigating dendritic growth kinetics during solidification has been developed, based on a modified Cellular Automaton (mCA) for microscopic modeling of nucleation, growth of crystals and solute diffusion. The mCA model numerically calculated solute redistribution both in the solid and liquid phases, the curvature of dendrite tips and the growth anisotropy. This modeling takes account of thermal, curvature and solute diffusion effects. Therefore, it can simulate microstructure formation both on the scale of the dendrite tip length. This model was then applied for simulating dendritic solidification of an Al-7%Si alloy. Both directional and equiaxed dendritic growth has been performed to investigate the growth anisotropy and cooling rate on dendrite morphology. Furthermore, the competitive growth and selection of dendritic crystals have also investigated.

Tidal influence on behaviour of a coastal aquifer adjacent to a low-relief estuary

The tidal influence on groundwater hydrodynamics, salt-water intrusion and submarine groundwater discharge from coastal/estuarine aquifers is poorly quantified for systems with a mildly sloping beach, in contrast to the case where a vertical beach face is assumed. We investigated the effect of beach slope for a coastal aquifer adjacent to a low-relief estuary, where industrial waste was emplaced over the aquifer. The waste was suspected to discharge leachate towards the estuary. Field observations at various locations showed that tidally induced groundwater head fluctuations were skewed temporally. Frequency analysis suggested that the fluctuation amplitudes decreased exponentially and the phase-tags increased Linearly for the primary tidal signals as they propagated inland. Salinisation zones were observed in the bottom part of the estuary and near the beach surface. Flow and transport processes in a cross-section perpendicular to the estuary were simulated using SEAWAT-2000, which is capable of depicting density-dependent flow and multi-species transport. The simulations showed that the modelled water table fluctuations were in good agreement with the monitored data. Further simulations were conducted to gain insight into the effects of beach slope. In particular the limiting case of a vertical beach face was considered. The simulations showed that density difference and tidal forcing drive a more complex hydrodynamic pattern for the mildly sloping beach than the vertical beach, as well as a profound asymmetry in tidally induced water table fluctuations and enhanced salt-water intrusion. The simulation results also indicated that contaminant transport from the aquifer to the estuary was affected by the tide, where for the mildly sloping beach, the tide tended to intensify the vertical mass exchange in the vicinity of the shorelines, (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.