Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

Error modeling and calibration of exteroceptive sensors for accurate mapping applications

Reliable robotic perception and planning are critical to performing autonomous actions in uncertain, unstructured environments. In field robotic systems, automation is achieved by interpreting exteroceptive sensor information to infer something about the world. This is then mapped to provide a consistent spatial context, so that actions can be planned around the predicted future interaction of the robot and the world. The whole system is as reliable as the weakest link in this chain. In this paper, the term mapping is used broadly to describe the transformation of range-based exteroceptive sensor data (such as LIDAR or stereo vision) to a fixed navigation frame, so that it can be used to form an internal representation of the environment. The coordinate transformation from the sensor frame to the navigation frame is analyzed to produce a spatial error model that captures the dominant geometric and temporal sources of mapping error. This allows the mapping accuracy to be calculated at run time. A generic extrinsic calibration method for exteroceptive range-based sensors is then presented to determine the sensor location and orientation. This allows systematic errors in individual sensors to be minimized, and when multiple sensors are used, it minimizes the systematic contradiction between them to enable reliable multisensor data fusion. The mathematical derivations at the core of this model are not particularly novel or complicated, but the rigorous analysis and application to field robotics seems to be largely absent from the literature to date. The techniques in this paper are simple to implement, and they offer a significant improvement to the accuracy, precision, and integrity of mapped information. Consequently, they should be employed whenever maps are formed from range-based exteroceptive sensor data. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Linking dynamic-capability portfolios and innovation outcomes

The objective of this paper is to explore the relationship between dynamic capabilities and different types of online innovations. Building on qualitative data from the publishing industry, our analysis revealed that companies that had relatively strong dynamic capabilities in all three areas (sensing, seizing and reconfiguration) seem to produce innovations that combine their existing capabilities on either the market or the technology dimension with new capabilities on the other dimension thus resulting in niche creation and revolutionary type innovations. Correspondingly, companies with a weaker or more one-sided set of dynamic capabilities seem to produce more radical innovations requiring both new market and technological capabilities. The study therefore provides an empirical contribution to the emerging work on dynamic capabilities through its in-depth investigation of the capabilities of the four case firms, and by mapping the patterns between the firm's portfolio of dynamic capabilities and innovation outcomes.

The enemy of music : modeling the behavior of a cultural industry in crisis

The purpose of this explorative study is to contribute to the understanding of current music industry dynamics. The situation is undeniably quite dramatic: Since the turn of the millennium, the global music industry has declined by $ US 6.2 billion in value—a fall of 16.3% in constant dollar terms. IFPI, the trade organization representing the international recording industry, identifies a number of exogenous factors as the main drivers of the downturn. This article suggests that other factors, in addition to those identified by IFPI, may have contributed to the current difficulties. A model is presented which indicates that business strategies which were designed to cope with the challenging business environment have reduced product diversity, damaged profitability, and contributed to the problem they were intended to solve.

Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific sub-regions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

E-motion diaries : blogging emotional responses to online learning in higher education

Emotions are inherently social, and are central to learning, online interaction and literacy practices (Shen, Wang, & Shen, 2009). Demonstrating the dynamic sociality of literacy practice, we used e-motion diaries or web logs to explore the emotional states of pre-service high school teachers’ experiences of online learning activities. This is because the methods of communication used by university educators in online learning and writing environments play an important role in fulfilling students’ need for social interaction and inclusion (McInnerney & Roberts, 2004). Feelings of isolation and frustration are common emotions experienced by students in many online learning environments, and are associated with the success or failure of online interactions and learning (Su, et al., 2005). The purpose of the study was to answer the research question: What are the trajectories of pre-service teachers’ emotional states during online learning experiences? This is important because emotions are central to learning, and the current trend toward Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) needs research about students’ emotional connections in online learning environments (Kop, 2011). The project was conducted with a graduate class of 64 high school science pre-service teachers in Science Education Curriculum Studies in a large Australian university, including males and females from a variety of cultural backgrounds, aged 22-55 years. Online activities involved the students watching a series of streamed live lectures for the first 5 weeks providing a varied set of learning experiences, such as viewing science demonstrations (e.g., modeling the use of discrepant events). Each week, students provided feedback on learning by writing and posting an e-motion diary or web log about their emotional response. Students answered the question: What emotions did you experience during this learning experience? The descriptive data set included 284 online posts, with students contributing multiple entries. Linguistic appraisal theory, following Martin and White (2005), was used to regroup the 22 different discrete emotions reported by students into the six main affect groups – three positive and three negative: unhappiness/happiness, insecurity/security, and dissatisfaction/satisfaction. The findings demonstrated that the pre-service teachers’ emotional responses to the streamed lectures tended towards happiness, security, and satisfaction within the typology of affect groups – un/happiness, in/security, and dis/satisfaction. Fewer students reported that the streamed lectures triggered negative feelings of frustration, powerlessness, and inadequacy, and when this occurred, it often pertained to expectations of themselves in the forthcoming field experience in classrooms. Exceptions to this pattern of responses occurred in relation to the fifth streamed lecture presented in a non-interactive slideshow format that compressed a large amount of content. Many students responded to the content of the lecture rather than providing their emotional responses to this lecture, and one student felt “completely disengaged”. The social practice of online writing as blogs enabled the students to articulate their emotions. The findings primarily contribute new understanding about students' wide range of differing emotional states, both positive and negative, experienced in response to streamed live lectures and other learning activities in higher education external coursework. The is important because the majority of previous studies have focused on particular negative emotions, such as anxiety in test taking. The research also highlights the potentials of appraisal theory for studying human emotions in online learning and writing.

Modeling perceived influences on journalism : evidence from a cross-national survey of journalists

Surveying 1,700 journalists from seventeen countries, this study investigates perceived influences on news work. Analysis reveals a dimensional structure of six distinct domains—political, economic, organizational, professional, and procedural influences, as well as reference groups. Across countries, these six dimensions build up a hierarchical structure where organizational, professional, and procedural influences are perceived as more powerful limits to journalists' work than political and economic influences.

Voltage unbalance reduction in low voltage feeders by dynamic switching of residential customers among three phases

Low voltage distribution feeders with large numbers of single phase residential loads experience severe current unbalance that often causes voltage unbalance problems. The addition of intermittent generation and new loads in the form of roof top photovoltaic generation and electric vehicles makes these problems even more acute. In this paper, an intelligent dynamic residential load transfer scheme is proposed. Residential loads can be transferred from one phase to another phase to minimize the voltage unbalance along the feeder. Each house is supplied through a static transfer switch with three-phase input and single-phase output connection. The main controller, installed at the transformer will observe the power consumption in each load and determine which house(s) should be transferred from one phase to another in order to keep the voltage unbalance in the feeder at a minimum. The efficacy of the proposed load transfer scheme is verified through MATLAB and PSCAD/EMTDC simulations.

Wide area controls for transient and dynamic stability enhancement

This paper presents a study done into the effectiveness of using local acceleration measurements vs. remote angle measurements in providing stabilising control via SVCs following large disturbances. The system studied was an analogue of the Queensland-New South Wales Interconnection (QNI) and involved the control of an existing Static Var Compensators (SVC) at Sydney West. This study is placed in the context of wide area controls for large systems using aggregated models for groups of machines.

Load profile based determination of distribution feeder configuration by dynamic programming

This paper presents a new method to determine feeder reconfiguration scheme considering variable load profile. The objective function consists of system losses, reliability costs and also switching costs. In order to achieve an optimal solution the proposed method compares these costs dynamically and determines when and how it is reasonable to have a switching operation. The proposed method divides a year into several equal time periods, then using particle swarm optimization (PSO), optimal candidate configurations for each period are obtained. System losses and customer interruption cost of each configuration during each period is also calculated. Then, considering switching cost from a configuration to another one, dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) is used to determine the annual reconfiguration scheme. Several test systems were used to validate the proposed method. The obtained results denote that to have an optimum solution it is necessary to compare operation costs dynamically.

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

Modeling the effectiveness of counterterrorism interventions

After the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts moved to the front of popular consciousness and became the focus of national security for governments worldwide. With this increased attention came an urgent interest in understanding and identifying what works in fighting terrorism (Belasco 2010). For Australia, understanding the relative effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts in nearby neighbours of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines is highly relevant for our country's national security. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are all countries that are important to Australia not just because of geographic proximity, but also because of a history of economic ties and the role these countries play as Australia’s regional partners...

Towards robotic visual and acoustic stealth for outdoor dynamic target tracking

Covertly tracking mobile targets, either animal or human, in previously unmapped outdoor natural environments using off-road robotic platforms requires both visual and acoustic stealth. Whilst the use of robots for stealthy surveillance is not new, the majority only consider navigation for visual covertness. However, most fielded robotic systems have a non-negligible acoustic footprint arising from the onboard sensors, motors, computers and cooling systems, and also from the wheels interacting with the terrain during motion. This time-varying acoustic signature can jeopardise any visual covertness and needs to be addressed in any stealthy navigation strategy. In previous work, we addressed the initial concepts for acoustically masking a tracking robot’s movements as it travels between observation locations selected to minimise its detectability by a dynamic natural target and ensuring con- tinuous visual tracking of the target. This work extends the overall concept by examining the utility of real-time acoustic signature self-assessment and exploiting shadows as hiding locations for use in a combined visual and acoustic stealth framework.

Acoustic Masking of a Stealthy Outdoor Robot Tracking a Dynamic Target

This work is motivated by the desire to covertly track mobile targets, either animal or human, in previously unmapped outdoor natural environments using off-road robotic platforms with a non-negligible acoustic signature. The use of robots for stealthy surveillance is not new. Many studies exist but only consider the navigation problem to maintain visual covertness. However, robotic systems also have a significant acoustic footprint from the onboard sensors, motors, computers and cooling systems, and also from the wheels interacting with the terrain during motion. All these can jepordise any visual covertness. In this work, we experimentally explore the concepts of opportunistically utilizing naturally occurring sounds within outdoor environments to mask the motion of a robot, and being visually covert whilst maintaining constant observation of the target. Our experiments in a constrained outdoor built environment demonstrate the effectiveness of the concept by showing a reduced acoustic signature as perceived by a mobile target allowing the robot to covertly navigate to opportunistic vantage points for observation.