Targeting poverty: Lessons from monitoring Ireland's national anti-poverty strategy

In 1997 the Irish government adopted the National Anti-Poverty Strategy (NAPS), a global target for the reduction of poverty which illuminates a range of issues relating to official poverty targets. The Irish target is framed in terms of a relative poverty measure incorporating both relative income and direct measures of deprivation based on data on the extent of poverty from 1994. Since 1994 Ireland has experienced an unprecedented period of economic growth that makes it particularly important to assess whether the target has been achieved, but in doing so we cannot avoid asking some underlying questions about how poverty should be measured and monitored over time. After briefly outlining the nature of the NAPS measure, this article examines trends in poverty in Ireland between 1987 and 1997, Results show that the relative income and deprivation components of the NAPS measure reveal differential trends with increasing relative income poverty, but decreasing deprivation. However, this differential could be due to the fact that the direct measures of deprivation upon which NAPS is based have not been updated to take account of changes in real living standards and increasing expectations. To test whether this is so, we examine the extent to which expectations about living standards and the structure of deprivation have changed over time using confirmatory factor analysis and tests of criterion validity using different definitions of deprivation. Results show that the combined income and deprivation measure, as originally constituted, continues to identify a set of households experiencing generalised deprivation resulting from a lack of resources.

A longitudinal analysis of estimation, counting skills, and mathematical ability across the first school year

In response to claims that the quality (and in particular linearity) of children's mental representation of number acts as a constraint on number development, we carried out a longitudinal assessment of the relationships between number line estimation, counting, and mathematical abilities. Ninety-nine 5-year-olds were tested on 4 occasions at 3 monthly intervals. Correlations between the 3 types of ability were evident, but while the quality of children's estimations changed over time and performance on the mathematical tasks improved over the same period, changes in one were not associated with changes in the other. In contrast to the earlier claims that the linearity of number representation is potentially a unique contributor to children's mathematical development, the data suggest that this variable is not significantly privileged in its impact over and above simple procedural number skills. We propose that both early arithmetic success and estimating skill are bound closely to developments in counting ability.

Trends in economic vulnerability in the Republic of Ireland

In this paper we evaluate trends in levels of economic vulnerability in Ireland during the period 1994-2001. We also document changes in the consequences of such vulnerability for social exclusion and in the social demographic factors with which it is associated. Over time there was a sharp decline in economic vulnerability. Furthermore, the degree of differentiation between the vulnerable and non-vulnerable classes in relation to both economic exclusion and social exclusion, more broadly conceived, remained relatively constant. Ireland is characterised by levels of socio-economic inequality that place it at the more unequal end of the European spectrum. However, the dramatic reductions in levels of vulnerability across the socio-economic spectrum demonstrate that the fruits of the economic boom have been distributed relatively widely.

A shared care model pilot for palliative home care in a rural area:Impact on symptoms, distress, and place of death

Context: Shared care models integrating family physician services with interdisciplinary palliative care specialist teams are critical to improve access to quality palliative home care and address multiple domains of end-of-life issues and needs. Objectives: To examine the impact of a shared care pilot program on the primary outcomes of symptom severity and emotional distress (patient and family separately) over time and, secondarily, the concordance between patient preferences and place of death. Methods: An inception cohort of patients (n = 95) with advanced, progressive disease, expected to die within six months, were recruited from three rural family physician group practices (21 physicians) and followed prospectively until death or pilot end. Serial measurement of symptoms, emotional distress (patient and family), and preferences for place of death was performed, with analysis of changes in distress outcomes assessed using t-tests and general linear models. Results: Symptoms trended toward improvement, with a significant reduction in anxiety from baseline to 14 days noted. Symptom and emotional distress were maintained below high severity (7-10), and a high rate of home death compared with population norms was observed. Conclusion: Future controlled studies are needed to examine outcomes for shared care models with comparison groups. Shared care models build on family physician capacity and as such are promising in the development of palliative home care programs to improve access to quality palliative home care and foster health system integration. © 2011 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fundus autofluorescence in patients with age-related macular degeneration and high risk of visual loss

PURPOSE: To describe fundus autofluorescence (AF) patterns and their change over time in patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and high risk of visual loss participating in the drusen laser study (DLS). DESIGN: Randomized clinical trial. METHODS: The study population consisted of 29 patients (35 eyes) participating in the DLS, which is a prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trial of prophylactic laser therapy in patients with AMD and high risk of neovascular complications. The intervention consisted of 16 eyes having prophylactic laser and 19 receiving no treatment. The main outcome measures were changes in the distribution of drusen and AF. Patients were reviewed for a median follow-up or 24 months (range 12-36 months). RESULTS: At baseline, four patterns of fundus AF were recognized: focal increased AF (n = 18), reticular AF (n = 3), combined focal and reticular AF (n = 2), and homogeneous AF (n = 12). At last follow-up, fundus AF remained unchanged in 15 untreated (78%) and in seven treated (43%) eyes. In only one untreated eye, focal areas of increased AF returned to background levels and were no longer detectable at last follow-up, compared with six treated eyes. This difference was statistically significant (P = .03). Only large foveal soft drusen (drusenoid pigment epithelium detachments) consistently corresponded with focal changes in AF, whereas no obvious correspondence was found between small soft drusen located elsewhere and changes in AF. CONCLUSION: The lack of obvious correspondence between the distribution of drusen and of AF found in this study appears to indicate that drusen and AF represent independent measures of aging in the posterior pole. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Cheetahs, Acinonyx jubatus, balance turn capacity with pace when chasing prey

Predator–prey interactions are fundamental in the evolution and structure of ecological communities. Our understanding, however, of the strategies used in pursuit and evasion remains limited. Here, we report on the hunting dynamics of the world's fastest land animal, the cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus. Using miniaturized data loggers, we recorded fine-scale movement, speed and acceleration of free-ranging cheetahs to measure how hunting dynamics relate to chasing different sized prey. Cheetahs attained hunting speeds of up to 18.94 m s-1 and accelerated up to 7.5 m s-2 with greatest angular velocities achieved during the terminal phase of the hunt. The interplay between forward and lateral acceleration during chases showed that the total forces involved in speed changes and turning were approximately constant over time but varied with prey type. Thus, rather than a simple maximum speed chase, cheetahs first accelerate to decrease the distance to their prey, before reducing speed 5–8 s from the end of the hunt, so as to facilitate rapid turns to match prey escape tactics, varying the precise strategy according to prey species. Predator and prey thus pit a fine balance of speed against manoeuvring capability in a race for survival.

Seasonal patterns of body temperature daily rhythms in group-living cape ground squirrels Xerus inauris

Organisms respond to cyclical environmental conditions by entraining their endogenous biological rhythms. Such physiological responses are expected to be substantial for species inhabiting arid environments which incur large variations in daily and seasonal ambient temperature (T). We measured core body temperature (T) daily rhythms of Cape ground squirrels Xerus inauris inhabiting an area of Kalahari grassland for six months from the Austral winter through to the summer. Squirrels inhabited two different areas: an exposed flood plain and a nearby wooded, shady area, and occurred in different social group sizes, defined by the number of individuals that shared a sleeping burrow. Of a suite of environmental variables measured, maximal daily T provided the greatest explanatory power for mean T whereas sunrise had greatest power for T acrophase. There were significant changes in mean T and T acrophase over time with mean T increasing and T acrophase becoming earlier as the season progressed. Squirrels also emerged from their burrows earlier and returned to them later over the measurement period. Greater increases in T, sometimes in excess of 5°C, were noted during the first hour post emergence, after which T remained relatively constant. This is consistent with observations that squirrels entered their burrows during the day to 'offload' heat. In addition, greater T amplitude values were noted in individuals inhabiting the flood plain compared with the woodland suggesting that squirrels dealt with increased environmental variability by attempting to reduce their T-T gradient. Finally, there were significant effects of age and group size on T with a lower and less variable T in younger individuals and those from larger group sizes. These data indicate that Cape ground squirrels have a labile T which is sensitive to a number of abiotic and biotic factors and which enables them to be active in a harsh and variable environment.

Automated detection and measurement of isolated retinal arterioles by a combination of edge enhancement and cost analysis

Pressure myography studies have played a crucial role in our understanding of vascular physiology and pathophysiology. Such studies depend upon the reliable measurement of changes in the diameter of isolated vessel segments over time. Although several software packages are available to carry out such measurements on small arteries and veins, no such software exists to study smaller vessels (<50 µm in diameter). We provide here a new, freely available open-source algorithm, MyoTracker, to measure and track changes in the diameter of small isolated retinal arterioles. The program has been developed as an ImageJ plug-in and uses a combination of cost analysis and edge enhancement to detect the vessel walls. In tests performed on a dataset of 102 images, automatic measurements were found to be comparable to those of manual ones. The program was also able to track both fast and slow constrictions and dilations during intraluminal pressure changes and following application of several drugs. Variability in automated measurements during analysis of videos and processing times were also investigated and are reported. MyoTracker is a new software to assist during pressure myography experiments on small isolated retinal arterioles. It provides fast and accurate measurements with low levels of noise and works with both individual images and videos. Although the program was developed to work with small arterioles, it is also capable of tracking the walls of other types of microvessels, including venules and capillaries. It also works well with larger arteries, and therefore may provide an alternative to other packages developed for larger vessels when its features are considered advantageous.

Surveillance of Non melanoma Skin Cancer Incidence Rates in Kidney Transplant Recipients in Ireland

Background: The incidence of nonmelanomatous skin cancer (NMSC) is substantially higher among renal transplant recipients (RTRs) than in the general population. With a growing RTR population, a robust method for monitoring skin cancer rates in this population is required.
Methods: A modeling approach was used to estimate the trends in NMSC rates that adjusted for changes in the RTR population (sex and age), calendar time, the duration of posttransplant follow-up, and background population NMSC incidence rates. RTR databases in both Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI) were linked to their respective cancer registries for diagnosis of NMSC, mainly squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC).
Results: RTRs in the ROI had three times the incidence (P<0.001) of NMSC compared with NI. There was a decline (P<0.001) in NMSC 10-year cumulative incidence rate in RTRs over the period 1994–2009, which was driven by reductions in both SCC and BCC incidence rates. Nevertheless, there was an increase in the incidence of NMSC with time since transplantation. The observed graft survival was higher in ROI than NI (P<0.05) from 1994–2004. The overall patient survival of RTRs was similar in NI and ROI.
Conclusion: Appropriate modeling of incidence trends in NMSC among RTRs is a valuable surveillance exercise for assessing the impact of change in clinical practices over time on the incidence rates of skin cancer in RTRs. It can form the basis of further research into unexplained regional variations in NMSC incidence.

Trends in Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: An Analysis of the CSO Survey in Income and Living Conditions (SILC)

Since 2008, Ireland has experienced the most severe economic and labour market crisis since the foundation of the State. These economic and labour market changes have had a stark impact on the standard of living across the Irish population. The rapid deterioration in the labour market, the rising level of household indebtedness and stringent austerity measures to plug the public finance deficit have had a widespread impact yet there is debate about where the heaviest burden has fallen and where the economic stress has been felt most. The paper analyses data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the period 2004 to 2011. The aim of the paper is to develop and test a measure of economic stress, which will capture some of the aspects of the rapid change in economic fortunes on Irish households that are not picked up by income alone. This includes tapping into features of the recession such as debt problems, unsustainable housing costs, and other difficulties associated with managing on reduced household income in a period of uncertainty. In testing such a measure we examine trends over time from boom to bust in the Irish economy and consider how economic stress is distributed across different socio-economic groups. The paper explores the distribution and level of economic stress across income class groups, social classes and the life-course and tests the thesis of ‘middle class squeeze’.

Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000

Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings’, is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear.

Trajectories of Learning Dispositions and Attitudes in Upper Primary Schools in Northern Ireland: What exactly is going on?

There is increasing research and policy interest in the importance of attitudes to learning, learning orientations and learning dispositions (however they are labelled), not only because they influence traditional measures of school achievement but also because they facilitate how well children function at school, with implications for their future learning. This paper reports the findings on pupils’ learning dispositions and attitudes from two separate cohorts of pupils as they progress through upper primary school (Key Stage 2) in 50 schools in Northern Ireland. (These data are drawn from two different longitudinal studies and the data collection period predates the introduction of the new Northern Ireland Curriculum.) Approximately 1200 pupils completed seven scales from the Assessment of Learner-Centred Practices, ALCPs (McCombs and Lauer, 1997) at three time points, at the end of P5 (9 year olds), at the end of P6 (10 years olds) and at the end of P7 (11 year olds). ALCPs draws on an extensive research base that has identified cognitive and motivational dispositions and attitudes that are associated with a positive orientation to learning, and ultimately with positive progress in school (Alexander and Murphy, 1998). Although each scale can be considered separately, the seven scales cluster into two groups: self-efficacy, mastery orientation, active learning strategies and curiosity are all predicted to be pro-learning; and challenge avoidance, work avoidance, and – to a lesser extent – performance orientation, are predicted to be negatively associated with learning. The general trajectory in the children’s self-evaluations shows that they are becoming less pro-learning over time, with significant decreases in their self-ratings of active learning, curiosity, mastery orientation and self-efficacy. At the same time, there is some evidence that they work harder and put more effort into their work but this is not accompanied by maintaining their previous pro-learning motivations and strategies. The pattern is consistently more negative for boys than for girls. There are very few differences between the two cohorts indicating that the pattern is not confined to a specific cohort. These findings are challenging and will be interrogated with regard to two questions – are the changes related to the influence of the children’s school experiences per se or are they more related to developmental differences as children adopt more critical appraisals of their personal attributes and efforts as they get older? Whatever the reason, these learning dispositions and attitudes are important as they contribute significantly to school achievement even when the more traditional predictors like gender and ability are taken into account.

Étude des impacts écologiques du dynamisme spatio-temporel des habitats naturels sur la faune menacée du Complexe Zones Humides Mahavavy-Kinkony, Madagascar.

This study of the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) assesses the impacts of habitat change on the resident globally threatened fauna. Located in Boeny Region, northwest Madagascar, the Complex encompasses a range of habitats including freshwater lakes, rivers, marshes, mangrove forests, and deciduous forest. Spatial modelling and analysis tools were used to (i) identify the important habitats for selected, threatened fauna, (ii) assess their change from 1950 to 2005, (iii) detect the causes of change, (iv) simulate changes to 2050 and (v) evaluate the impacts of change. The approach for prioritising potential habitats for threatened species used ecological science techniques assisted by the decision support software Marxan. Nineteen species were analysed: nine birds, three primates, three fish, three bats and one reptile. Based on knowledge of local land use, supervised classification of Landsat images from 2005 was used to classify the land use of the Complex. Simulations of land use change to 2050 were carried out based on the Land Change Modeler module in Idrisi Andes with the neural network algorithm. Changes in land use at site level have occurred over time but they are not significant. However, reductions in the extent of reed marshes at Lake Kinkony and forests at Tsiombikibo and Marofandroboka directly threaten the species that depend on these habitats. Long term change monitoring is recommended for the Mahavavy Delta, in order to evaluate the predictions through time. The future change of Andohaomby forest is of great concern and conservation actions are recommended as a high priority. Abnormal physicochemical properties were detected in lake Kinkony due to erosion of the four watersheds to the south, therefore an anti-erosion management plan is required for these watersheds. Among the species of global conservation concern, Sakalava rail (Amaurornis olivieri), Crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and dambabe (Paretroplus dambabe) are estimated the most affected, but at the site level Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckeni), kotsovato (Paretroplus kieneri) and Madagascan big-headed turtle (Erymnochelys madagascariensis) are also threatened. Local enforcement of national legislation on hunting means that MKWC is among the sites where the flying fox (Pteropus rufus) and Madagascan rousette (Rousettus madagascariensis) are well protected. Ecological restoration, ecological research and actions to reduce anthropogenic pressures are recommended.

Repeated measures of body mass index and C-reactive protein in relation to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease: Results from the consortium on health and ageing network of cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single ‘baseline’ measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25–<30 kg/m2) or moderately obese (≥30–<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5–<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58–0.82) and 0.78 (0.63–0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79–0.94) and 0.80 (0.72–0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76–1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62–1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity.