Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring through cover - the integrated interpretation of high resolution aeromagnetic, airborne electromagnetic and ground gravity data from the Grant's Patch area, Eastern Goldfields Province, Archaean Yigarn Craton Part B; Gravity inversion as a

The cost and risk associated with mineral exploration in Australia increases significantly as companies move into deeper regolith-covered terrain. The ability to map the bedrock and the depth of weathering within an area has the potential to decrease this risk and increase the effectiveness of exploration programs. This paper is the second in a trilogy concerning the Grant's Patch area of the Eastern Goldfields. The recent development of the VPmg potential field inversion program in conjunction with the acquisition of high-resolution gravity data over an area with extensive drilling provided an opportunity to evaluate three-dimensional gravity inversion as a bedrock and regolith mapping tool. An apparent density model of the study area was constructed, with the ground represented as adjoining 200 m by 200 m vertical rectangular prisms. During inversion VPmg incrementally adjusted the density of each prism until the free-air gravity response of the model replicated the observed data. For the Grant's Patch study area, this image of the apparent density values proved easier to interpret than the Bouguer gravity image. A regolith layer was introduced into the model and realistic fresh-rock densities assigned to each basement prism according to its interpreted lithology. With the basement and regolith densities fixed, the VPmg inversion algorithm adjusted the depth to fresh basement until the misfit between the calculated and observed gravity response was minimised. The resulting geometry of the bedrock/regolith contact largely replicated the base of weathering indicated by drilling with predicted depth of weathering values from gravity inversion typically within 15% of those logged during RAB and RC drilling.

How should pathogen transmission be modelled?

Host-pathogen models are essential for designing strategies for managing disease threats to humans, wild animals and domestic animals. The behaviour of these models is greatly affected by the way in which transmission between infected and susceptible hosts is modelled. Since host-pathogen models were first developed at the beginning of the 20th century, the 'mass action' assumption has almost always been used for transmission. Recently, however, it has been suggested that mass action has often been modelled wrongly. Alternative models of transmission are beginning to appear, as are empirical tests of transmission dynamics.

Investigating technical and scale efficiencies of Australian universities through data envelopment analysis

Performance indicators in the public sector have often been criticised for being inadequate and not conducive to analysing efficiency. The main objective of this study is to use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine the relative efficiency of Australian universities. Three performance models are developed, namely, overall performance, performance on delivery of educational services, and performance on fee-paying enrolments. The findings based on 1995 data show that the university sector was performing well on technical and scale efficiency but there was room for improving performance on fee-paying enrolments. There were also small slacks in input utilisation. More universities were operating at decreasing returns to scale, indicating a potential to downsize. DEA helps in identifying the reference sets for inefficient institutions and objectively determines productivity improvements. As such, it can be a valuable benchmarking tool for educational administrators and assist in more efficient allocation of scarce resources. In the absence of market mechanisms to price educational outputs, which renders traditional production or cost functions inappropriate, universities are particularly obliged to seek alternative efficiency analysis methods such as DEA.

Pediculus humanus capitis infestations in the community: A pilot study into transmission, treatment and factors affecting control

Head lice (Pediculus humanus capitis) infestations affect schoolchildren worldwide, creating social, economic and health consequences for families. Problems with self-detection, chronic infestations and classroom transmission are compounded by increasing resistance of the lice to pediculicides. Public health strategies are based on limited research and little is known about transmission dynamics. Mismanagement and transmission in the general community are blamed for control failure. The purpose of this study was to explore community head-lice experience in Brisbane, Australia, and to identify critical factors underlying control failure. A home-based pilot survey used physical examination to verify transmission and treatment patterns which were self-reported by a group of trace-contact families in addition to other unconnected participants. The survey was enlarged to further compare therapy outcomes and suspected risk factors. The findings reinforce those of previous studies - that children attending school and early childhood centres, and subsequently their families, are most at risk of contracting pediculosis capitis, and some may carry lice for years. First-line (pediculicidal) treatment and even additional physical methods of hand-picking and fine-toothed combing usually fail to eradicate lice quickly and completely (overall cure-rate 39 per cent, n = 84 cases). Failures were linked to hair characteristics. Public education alone may not control pediculosis. Accurate diagnosis requires considerable experience; a strong case exists for returning to institutional surveillance.

A multiple-outgroup approach to resolving division-level phylogenetic relationships using 16S rDNA data

The 16S rRNA gene (16S rDNA) is currently the most widely used gene for estimating the evolutionary history of prokaryotes, To date, there are more than 30 000 16S rDNA sequences available from the core databases, GenBank, EMBL and DDBJ, This great number may cause a dilemma when composing datasets for phylogenetic analysis, since the choice and number of reference organisms are known to affect the resulting tree topology. A group of sequences appearing monophyletic in one dataset may not be so in another. This can be especially problematic when establishing the relationships of distantly related sequences at the division (phylum) level. In this study, a multiple-outgroup approach to resolving division-level phylogenetic relationships is suggested using 16S rDNA data. The approach is illustrated by two case studies concerning the monophyly of two recently proposed bacterial divisions, OP9 and OP10.

Evaluation of liquid Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis products for control of Australian Aedes arbovirus vectors

Laboratory bioassay studies were conducted in southeast Queensland, Australia,: on the efficacy of Teknar (R), VectoBac (R) 12AS, and Cybate (R) (active ingredient: 1,200 international toxic units Bacillus thuringiensis var, israelensis [Bti]) against 3rd instars of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti. Ae. notoscriptus, Ae. vigilax, and Ae. camptorhynchus. Probit analyses were then used to determine LD,, (median lethal dose), LD95, and lethal dose ratios (LDR). Aedes aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus, both container-habitat species, tolerated the highest Bti concentrations compared with saltmarsh Ae. vigilax and Ae. camptorhynchus. For example, the LDR for Ae. vigilax versus Ae. notoscriptus exposed to Cybate was 0.14 (95% confidence limit [CL] 0.03-0.61). Similarly, the Cybate LDR for Ae. camptorhynchus versus Ae. notoscriptus was 0.22 (95% CL 0.07-0.70). Teknar produced similar results with an LDR of 0.21 (95% CL 0.04-1.10) for Aedes vigilax versus Aedes notoscriptus. Differences in product efficacy were found when tested against the 2 container-breeding species. Cybate was less effective than Teknar with LDRs of 1.55 (95% CL 0.65-3.67) and 1.87 (95% CL 0.68-5.15) for Aedes aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus, respectively. The significant differences in susceptibility between mosquito species and varying efficacy between products highlight the importance of evaluating concentration-response data prior to contracting with distributors of mosquito control products. This information is crucial to resistance management strategies.

Drug susceptibility testing of anaerobic protozoa

A simple technique for routine, reproducible global surveillance of the drug susceptibility status of the anaerobic protozoa Trichomonas, Entamoeba, and Giardia is described, Data collected using this technique can be readily compared among different laboratories and with previously reported data. The technique employs a commercially available sachet and bag system to generate a low-oxygen environment and log, drug dilutions in microtiter plates, which can be monitored without aerobic exposure, to assay drug-resistant laboratory lines and clinically resistant isolates. MICs (after 2 days) of 3.2 and 25 muM indicated metronidazole-sensitive and highly clinically resistant isolates of T. vaginalis in anaerobic assays, respectively. The aerobic MICs were 25 and > 200 muM. MICs (1 day) of 12.5 to 25 muM were found for axenic lines of E. histolytica, and MICs for G. duodenalis (3 days) ranged from 6.3 muM for metronidazole-sensitive isolates to 50 muM for laboratory metronidazole-resistant lines. This technique should encourage more extensive monitoring of drug resistance in these organisms.

Horizontal transmission of entomopathogenic fungi by the diamondback moth

The relative potential of the pathogenic fungi Beauveria bassiana and Zoophthora radicans for use as autodisseminated biological control agents of the diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) was compared. The LC50 of B. bassiana conidia to third instar larvae was 499 conidia/mm(2) of leaf surface and individual cadavers of mycosed fourth instar larvae yielded a mean of 67.5 X 10(6) (+/- 7.5 x 10(6)) conidia. All concentrations of B. bassiana tested in inoculation chambers (0.24, 2.4, and 6.2 mug/mm(2)) induced 100% mortality in adult male moths within 7 days. The times to death and sporulation were concentration and exposure duration dependent. A standard procedure for inoculating male moths resulted in > 85% mortality from Z. radicans and > 93% mortality from B. bassiana. Pairing of inoculated males with clean moths of both sexes yielded higher rates of passive transmission of B. bassiana than Z. radicans, but there was no evidence for sexual transmission of either pathogen. Similarly, B. bassiana was more effectively transmitted from inoculated male moths to larvae foraging on whole plants. Single sporulating cadavers producing B. bassiana or Z. radicans conidia placed on plants infested with larvae resulted in a similar rate of transmission for both pathogens. However, an increase of the density of sporulating cadavers from one to three/plant increased Z. radicans transmission (greater than fourfold) but had no effect on B. bassiana transmission. Simultaneous inoculations of larvae with conidia of both fungi reduced the mortality induced by each pathogen, the reduction being most acute for B. bassiana-induced mortality. Inoculation of adults with both fungi showed that, at concentrations required for effective passive transmission to larvae, B. bassiana severely inhibited Z. radicans mycosis in adults. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Realtime fetal ultrasound by telemedicine in Queensland. A successful venture?

We have established a realtime fetal tele-ultrasound consultation service in Queensland, which has been integrated into our routine clinical practice, The service, which uses ISDN transmission at 384 kbit/s, allows patients in Townsville to be examined by subspecialists in Brisbane, 1500 km away. For the 90 tele-ultrasound consultations performed for the first 71 patients, 90% of the babies have been delivered, and outcome data have been received on all the pregnancies. All significant anomalies and diagnoses have been confirmed. The referring clinicians would have physically referred 24 of the 71 patients to Brisbane in the absence of telemedicine. A crude cost-benefit calculation suggests that the tele-ultrasound service resulted in a net saving of A$6340, and at the same time enabled almost four times the number of consultations to be carried out.