Hazard assessment of storm events for the battery, New York

The environmental and socio-economic importance of coastal areas is widely recognized, but at present these areas face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations. The increased demand and growing human occupation of coastal zones have greatly contributed to exacerbating such weaknesses. Today, throughout the world, in all countries with coastal regions, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal flooding are frequent. These episodes are usually responsible for property losses and often put human lives at risk. The floods are caused by coastal storms primarily due to the action of very strong winds. The propagation of these storms towards the coast induces high water levels. It is expected that climate change phenomena will contribute to the intensification of coastal storms. In this context, an estimation of coastal flooding hazards is of paramount importance for the planning and management of coastal zones. Consequently, carrying out a series of storm scenarios and analyzing their impacts through numerical modeling is of prime interest to coastal decision-makers. Firstly, throughout this work, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the northeastern region of United States coast, in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate ensemble simulations to assess storms' effects on coastal water levels. For the United States’ northeastern coast, a highly refined regional domain is considered surrounding the area of The Battery, New York, situated in New York Harbor. Based on statistical data of numerical modeling results, a review of the impact of coastal storms to different locations within the study area is performed.

Emotional and behavioral problems in preschoolers: risk factors and assessment Issues

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia Aplicada.

Evaluación de la degradación del suelo en agroecosistemas del centro-sur de Córdoba mediante indicadores e índices. Assessment of soil degradation in agroecosystems of central-southern Córdoba by means of indicators and indices

Las actividades agropecuarias ejercen diferentes presiones sobre los recursos naturales. Esto ha llevado, en algunas áreas, a un deterioro del suelo que provoca un impacto sobre la sustentabilidad en los sistemas agropecuarios. Para evaluar la degradación del suelo se han propuesto listas de indicadores, sin embargo, se carece de una herramienta metodológica robusta, adaptada a las condiciones edafoclimáticas regionales. Además, existe una demanda de productores e instituciones interesados en orientar acciones para preservar el suelo. El objetivo de este proyecto es evaluar la degradación física, química y biológica de los suelos en agroecosistemas del centro-sur de Córdoba. Por ello se propone desarrollar una herramienta metodológica que consiste en un set de indicadores físicos, químicos y biológicos, con valores umbrales, integrados en índices de degradación, que asistan a los agentes tomadores de decisiones y productores, en la toma de decisiones respecto de la degradación del suelo. El área de trabajo será una región agrícola del centro-sur de Córdoba con más de 100 años de agricultura. La metodología comienza con la caracterización del uso del territorio y sistemas de manejo, su clasificación y la obtención de mapas base de usos y manejos, mediante sensores remotos y encuestas. Se seleccionarán sitios de muestreo mediante una metodología semi-dirigida usando un SIG, asegurando un mínimo de un punto de muestreo por unidad de mapeo. Se elegirán sitios de referencia lo más cercano a una condición natural. Los indicadores a evaluar surgen de listas propuestas en trabajos previos del grupo, seleccionados en base a criterios internacionales y a adecuados a suelos de la región. Se usarán indicadores núcleo y complementarios. Para la obtención de umbrales, se usarán por un lado valores provenientes de la bibliografía y por otro, umbrales generados a partir de la distribución estadística del indicador en suelos de referencia. Para estandarizar cada indicador se definirá una función de transformación. Luego serán ponderarán mediante análisis estadísticos mulivariados e integrados en índices de degradación física, química y biológica, y un índice general de degradación. El abordaje concluirá con el desarrollo de dos instrumentos para la toma de decisiones: uno a escala regional, que consistirá en mapas de degradación en base a unidades cartográficas ambientales, de uso del territorio y de sistemas de manejo y otro a escala predial que informará sobre la degradación del suelo de un lote en particular, en comparación con suelos de referencia. Los actores interesados contarán con herramientas robustas para la toma de decisiones respecto de la degradación del suelo tanto a escala regional como local. Agricultural activities exert different pressures on natural resources. In some areas this has led to soil degradation and has an impact on agricultural sustainability. To assess soil degradation a robust methodological tool, adapted to regional soil and climatic conditions, is lacking. In addition, there is a demand from farmers and institutions interested in direct actions to preserve the soil. The objective of this project is to assess physical, chemical and biological soil degradation in agroecosystems of Córdoba. We propose to develop a tool that consists of a set of physical, chemical and biological indicators, with threshold values, integrated in soil degradation indices. The study area is a region with more than 100 years of agriculture. The methodology begins with the characterization of land use and management systems and the obtaining of base maps by means of remote sensing and survey. Sampling sites will be selected through a semi-directed methodology using GIS, ensuring at least one sampling point by mapping unit. Reference sites will be chosen as close to a natural condition. The proposed indicators emerge from previous works of the group, selected based on international standards and appropriate for the local soils. To obtain the thresholds, we will use, by one side, values from the literature, and by the other, values generated from the statistical distribution of the indicator in the reference soils. To standardize indicators transformation functions will be defined. Indicators will be weighted by mans of multivariate analysis and integrated in soil degradation indices. The approach concluded with the development of two instruments for decision making: a regional scale one, consisting in degradation maps based on environmental, land use and management systems mapping units; and an instrument at a plot level which will report on soil degradation of a particular plot compared to reference soils.

Investigation Route of the Coronary Patient in the Public Health System in Curitiba, São Paulo and in Incor - IMPACT Study

Background: The investigation of stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and its treatment depend on risk stratification for decision-making on the need for cardiac catheterization and revascularization. Objective: To analyze the procedures used in the diagnosis and invasive treatment of patients with CAD, at the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) in the cities of Curitiba, São Paulo and at InCor-FMUSP. Methods: Retrospective, descriptive, observational study of the diagnostic and therapeutic itineraries of the Brazilian public health care system patient, between groups submitted or not to prior noninvasive tests to invasive cardiac catheterization. Stress testing, stress echocardiography, perfusion scintigraphy, catheterization and percutaneous or surgical revascularization treatment procedures were quantified and the economic impact of the used strategies. Results: There are significant differences in the assessment of patients with suspected or known CAD in the metropolitan region in the three scenarios. Although functional testing procedures are most often used the direct costs of these procedures differ significantly (6.1% in Curitiba, 20% in São Paulo and 27% in InCor-FMUSP). Costs related to the procedures and invasive treatments represent 59.7% of the direct costs of SUS in São Paulo and 87.2% in Curitiba. In InCor-FMUSP, only 24.3% of patients with stable CAD submitted to CABG underwent a noninvasive test before the procedure. Conclusion: Although noninvasive functional tests are the ones most often requested for the assessment of patients with suspected or known CAD most of the costs are related to invasive procedures/treatments. In most revascularized patients, the documentation of ischemic burden was not performed by SUS.

Impact of Physical Activity Interventions on Blood Pressure in Brazilian Populations

Background:High blood pressure is associated with cardiovascular disease, which is the leading cause of mortality in the Brazilian population. Lifestyle changes, including physical activity, are important for lowering blood pressure levels and decreasing the costs associated with outcomes.Objective:Assess the impact of physical activity interventions on blood pressure in Brazilian individuals.Methods:Meta-analysis and systematic review of studies published until May 2014, retrieved from several health sciences databases. Seven studies with 493 participants were included. The analysis included parallel studies of physical activity interventions in adult populations in Brazil with a description of blood pressure (mmHg) before and after the intervention in the control and intervention groups.Results:Of 390 retrieved studies, eight matched the proposed inclusion criteria for the systematic review and seven randomized clinical trials were included in the meta-analysis. Physical activity interventions included aerobic and resistance exercises. There was a reduction of -10.09 (95% CI: -18.76 to -1.43 mmHg) in the systolic and -7.47 (95% CI: -11.30 to -3.63 mmHg) in the diastolic blood pressure.Conclusions:Available evidence on the effects of physical activity on blood pressure in the Brazilian population shows a homogeneous and significant effect at both systolic and diastolic blood pressures. However, the strength of the included studies was low and the methodological quality was also low and/or regular. Larger studies with more rigorous methodology are necessary to build robust evidence.

The effect of structural fund spending on the spanish regions: an assessment of the 1994-99 objective 1 CSF

This paper analyzes the growth and employment effects of the 1994-99 Community Support Framework (CSF) for the Objective 1 Spanish regions using a simple supply-side model estimated with a panel of regional data. The results suggest that the impact of the Structural Funds in Spain has been quite sizable, adding around a percentage point to annual output growth in the average Objective 1 region and 0.4 points to employment growth. Over the period 1994-2000, the Framework has resulted in the creation of over 300,000 new jobs and has eliminated 20% of the initial gap in income per capita between the assisted regions and the rest of the country.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Development of CBCT-based prostate setup correction strategies and impact of rectal distension.

BACKGROUND: Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) systems are widely used tools to verify and correct the target position before each fraction, allowing to maximize treatment accuracy and precision. In this study, we evaluate automatic three-dimensional intensity-based rigid registration (RR) methods for prostate setup correction using CBCT scans and study the impact of rectal distension on registration quality. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 115 CBCT scans of 10 prostate patients. CT-to-CBCT registration was performed using (a) global RR, (b) bony RR, or (c) bony RR refined by a local prostate RR using the CT clinical target volume (CTV) expanded with 1-to-20-mm varying margins. After propagation of the manual CT contours, automatic CBCT contours were generated. For evaluation, a radiation oncologist manually delineated the CTV on the CBCT scans. The propagated and manual CBCT contours were compared using the Dice similarity and a measure based on the bidirectional local distance (BLD). We also conducted a blind visual assessment of the quality of the propagated segmentations. Moreover, we automatically quantified rectal distension between the CT and CBCT scans without using the manual CBCT contours and we investigated its correlation with the registration failures. To improve the registration quality, the air in the rectum was replaced with soft tissue using a filter. The results with and without filtering were compared. RESULTS: The statistical analysis of the Dice coefficients and the BLD values resulted in highly significant differences (p<10(-6)) for the 5-mm and 8-mm local RRs vs the global, bony and 1-mm local RRs. The 8-mm local RR provided the best compromise between accuracy and robustness (Dice median of 0.814 and 97% of success with filtering the air in the rectum). We observed that all failures were due to high rectal distension. Moreover, the visual assessment confirmed the superiority of the 8-mm local RR over the bony RR. CONCLUSION: The most successful CT-to-CBCT RR method proved to be the 8-mm local RR. We have shown the correlation between its registration failures and rectal distension. Furthermore, we have provided a simple (easily applicable in routine) and automatic method to quantify rectal distension and to predict registration failure using only the manual CT contours.

Impact of disease and treatments on growth and puberty of pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Growth retardation, associated with delayed puberty, is a frequent feature in pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), especially with Crohn's disease. It is mainly induced by malnutrition and the effects of the inflammatory process on the growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor-1 axis or on the growth plate. Therefore, control of disease activity and mucosal healing are paramount to promote growth and adequate pubertal onset. Current therapeutic strategies for maintenance in IBD include anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressives, and, more recently, biologic agents. Although these treatments are efficient in minimizing inflammation and inducing prolonged remission, their long-term effects on growth and final height remain controversial. Furthermore, glucocorticoid therapy, even though very efficient in inducing remission, clearly shows deleterious effects on growth, which is not the case for exclusive enteral nutrition showing comparable results regarding induction of remission. Thus regular assessment of weight, height and pubertal stage is essential in children and adolescents with chronic disease, namely IBD.

Impact of preoperative central neurologic dysfunction on patients undergoing emergency surgery for type a dissection.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative central neurologic deficits in the context of acute type A dissection are a complex comorbidity and difficult to handle. The aim this study was to analyze this subgroup of patients by comparing them with neurologically asymptomatic patients with type A dissection. Results may help the surgeon in preoperative risk assessment and thereby aid in the decision-making process. METHODS: We reviewed the data of patients admitted for acute type A dissection during the period from 1999 to 2010. Associated risk factors, time to surgery from admission, extension of the dissection, localization of central nervous ischemic lesions, and the influence of perioperative brain protective strategies were analyzed in a comparison of preoperative neurologically deficient to nondeficient patients. RESULTS: Forty-seven (24.5%) of a total of 192 patients had new-onset central neurologic symptoms prior to surgery. Concomitant myocardial infarction (OR 4.9, 95% CI 1.6-15.3, P = 0.006), renal failure (OR 5.9, 95% CI 1.1-32.8, P = 0.04), dissected carotid arteries (OR 9.2, 95% CI 2.4-34.7, P = 0.001), and late admission to surgery at >6 hours after symptom onset (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.1-6.8, P = 0.04) were observed more frequently in neurologically deficient patients. These patients had a higher 30-day in-hospital mortality on univariate analysis (P = 0.01) and a higher rate of new postoperative neurologic deficits (OR 9.2, 95% CI 2.4-34.7, P = 0.02). Neurologic survivors had an equal hospital stay, and 67% of them had improved symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The predominance of neurologic symptoms at admission may be responsible for an initial misdiagnosis. The concurrent central nervous system ischemia and myocardial infarction explains a higher mortality rate and a more extensive "character" of the disease. Neurologically deficient patients are at higher risk of developing new postoperative neurologic symptoms, but prognosis for the neurologic evolution of survivors is generally favorable.

The impact of carotid plaque screening on motivation for smoking cessation.

Showing smokers their own atherosclerotic plaques might increase motivation for smoking cessation, since they underestimate their own risk for smoking-related diseases. To assess the feasibility and optimal processes of studying the impact of carotid atherosclerotic plaque screening in smokers, we enrolled 30 daily cigarette smokers, aged 40-70 years, in an observational pre-post pilot study. All smokers underwent smoking cessation counseling, nicotine replacement therapy, a carotid ultrasound, an educational tutorial on atherosclerosis, baseline and 2-month motivation to change assessment, and assessment of smoking cessation at 2 months. Participants had a mean smoking duration of 34 years (SD = 7). Carotid plaques were present in 22 smokers (73%). Between baseline and 2 months after plaque screening, motivation for smoking cessation increased from 7.4 to 8.4 out of 10 (p = .02), particularly in those with plaques (7.2 to 8.7, p = .008). At 2 months, the smoking quit rate was 63%, with a quit rate of 73% in those with plaques vs. 38% in those without plaques (p = .10). Perceived stress, anxiety, and depression did not increase after screening. 96% of respondents answered correctly at least 80% of questions regarding atherosclerosis knowledge at baseline and after 2 months. In conclusion, studying the process of screening for carotid plaques for the purpose of increasing motivation for smoking cessation, in addition to counseling and drug therapy for smoking cessation in long-term smokers, appears feasible. The impact of carotid plaque screening on smoking cessation should be examined in larger randomized controlled trials with sufficient power to assess the impact on long-term smoking cessation rates.

The impact of past direct-personal traumatic events on 12-month outcome in first episode psychotic mania: trauma and early psychotic mania.

OBJECTIVE: Past traumatic events have been associated with poorer clinical outcomes in people with bipolar disorder. However, the impact of these events in the early stages of the illness remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether prior traumatic events were related to poorer outcomes 12 months following a first episode of psychotic mania. METHODS: Traumatic events were retrospectively evaluated from patient files in a sample of 65 participants who had experienced first episode psychotic mania. Participants were aged between 15 and 28 years and were treated at a specialised early psychosis service. Clinical outcomes were measured by a variety of symptomatic and functioning scales at the 12-month time-point. RESULTS: Direct-personal traumatic experiences prior to the onset of psychotic mania were reported by 48% of the sample. Participants with past direct-personal trauma had significantly higher symptoms of mania (p=0.02), depression (p=0.03) and psychopathology (p=0.01) 12 months following their first episode compared to participants without past direct-personal trauma, with medium to large effects observed. After adjusting for baseline scores, differences in global functioning (as measured by the Global Assessment of Functioning scale) were non-significant (p=0.05); however, participants with past direct-personal trauma had significantly poorer social and occupational functioning (p=0.04) at the 12-month assessment with medium effect. CONCLUSIONS: Past direct-personal trauma may predict poorer symptomatic and functional outcomes after first episode psychotic mania. Limitations include that the findings represent individuals treated at a specialist early intervention centre for youth and the retrospective assessment of traumatic events may have been underestimated.

Study design for technology assessment: critical issues.

The epidemiological methods have become useful tools for the assessment of the effectiveness and safety of health care technologies. The experimental methods, namely the randomized controlled trials (RCT), give the best evidence of the effect of a technology. However, the ethical issues and the very nature of the intervention under study sometimes make it difficult to carry out an RCT. Therefore, quasi-experimental and non-experimental study designs are also applied. The critical issues concerning these designs are discussed. The results of evaluative studies are of importance for decision-makers in health policy. The measurements of the impact of a medical technology should go beyond a statement of its effectiveness, because the essential outcome of an intervention or programme is the health status and quality of life of the individuals and populations concerned.

Evaluation of the impact of a therapeutic drug monitoring program in a Swiss University Hospital

Background and objective: Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) has been introduced early 1970 in our hospital (CHUV). It represents nowadays an important routine activity of the Division of Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology (PCL), and its impact and utility for clinicians required assessment. This study thus evaluated the impact of TDM recommendations in terms of dosage regimen adaptation. Design: A prospective observational study was conducted over 5 weeks. The primary objective was to evaluate the application of our TDM recommendations and to identify potential factors associated to variations in their implementation. The secondary objective was to identify pre-analytical problems linked to the collection and processing of blood samples. Setting: Four representative clinical units at CHUV. Main outcome measure: Clinical data, drug related data (intake, collection and processing) and all information regarding the implementation of clinical recommendations were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistics. Results: A total of 241 blood measurement requests were collected, among which 105 triggered a recommendation. 37% of the recommendations delivered were applied, 25 % partially applied and 34% not applied. In 4% it was not applicable. The factors determinant for implementation were the clinical unit and the mode of transmission of the recommendation (written vs oral). No clear difference between types of drugs could be detected. Pre-analytical problems were not uncommon, mostly related to completion of request forms and delays in blood sampling (equilibration or steady-state not reached). We have identified 6% of inappropriate and unusable drug level measurements that could cause a substantial cost for the hospital. Conclusion: This survey highlighted a better implementation of TDM recommendations in clinical units where this routine is well integrated and understood by the medical staff. Our results emphasize the importance of communication with the nurse or the physician in charge, either to transmit clinical recommendations or to establish consensual therapeutic targets in specific conditions. Development of strong partnerships between clinical pharmacists or pharmacologists and clinical units would be beneficial to improve the impact of this clinical activity.