963 resultados para continuous-time models


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The aim of this paper is to analyse how learning assessment, particularly the Continuous Assessment system, has been defined in the Public Administration and Management Diploma Course of the University of Barcelona (Spain). This course was a pioneering experiment at this university in implementing the guidelines of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA), and thus represents a good case study for verifying whether one of the cornerstones of the EHEA has been accomplished with success. Using data obtained from the Teaching Plans elaborated by the lecturers of each subject, we are able to establish that the CA system has been progressively accepted to such an extent that it is now the assessment formula used by practically all of the lecturers, conforming in this way to the protocols laid down by the Faculty of Law in which this diploma course is taught. Nevertheless, we find that high dispersion exists in how Continuous Assessment is actually defined. Indeed, it seems that there is no unified view of how Continuous Assessment should be performed. This dispersion, however, seems to diminish over time and raises some questions about the advisability of agreement on criteria, considering the potential which CA has as a pedagogical tool. Moreover, we find that the Unique Assessment system, which students may also apply for, is an option chosen only by a minority, with lecturers usually defining it as merely a theoretical and/or practical test, of little innovation in relation to traditional tests.

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OBJECTIVES: We have sought to develop an automated methodology for the continuous updating of optimal cerebral perfusion pressure (CPPopt) for patients after severe traumatic head injury, using continuous monitoring of cerebrovascular pressure reactivity. We then validated the CPPopt algorithm by determining the association between outcome and the deviation of actual CPP from CPPopt. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. SETTING: Neurosciences critical care unit of a university hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 327 traumatic head-injury patients admitted between 2003 and 2009 with continuous monitoring of arterial blood pressure and intracranial pressure. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Arterial blood pressure, intracranial pressure, and CPP were continuously recorded, and pressure reactivity index was calculated online. Outcome was assessed at 6 months. An automated curve fitting method was applied to determine CPP at the minimum value for pressure reactivity index (CPPopt). A time trend of CPPopt was created using a moving 4-hr window, updated every minute. Identification of CPPopt was, on average, feasible during 55% of the whole recording period. Patient outcome correlated with the continuously updated difference between median CPP and CPPopt (chi-square=45, p<.001; outcome dichotomized into fatal and nonfatal). Mortality was associated with relative "hypoperfusion" (CPP<CPPopt), severe disability with "hyperperfusion" (CPP>CPPopt), and favorable outcome was associated with smaller deviations of CPP from the individualized CPPopt. While deviations from global target CPP values of 60 mm Hg and 70 mm Hg were also related to outcome, these relationships were less robust. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time CPPopt could be identified during the recording time of majority of the patients. Patients with a median CPP close to CPPopt were more likely to have a favorable outcome than those in whom median CPP was widely different from CPPopt. Deviations from individualized CPPopt were more predictive of outcome than deviations from a common target CPP. CPP management to optimize cerebrovascular pressure reactivity should be the subject of future clinical trial in severe traumatic head-injury patients.

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Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) is one of the candidate molecules among neurotrophic factors proposed for a potential treatment of retinitis pigmentosa (RP). It must be administered repeatedly or through sustained releasing systems to exert prolonged neuroprotective effects. In the dystrophic Royal College of Surgeon's (RCS) rat model of RP, we found that endogenous GDNF levels dropped during retinal degeneration time course, opening a therapeutic window for GDNF supplementation. We showed that after a single electrotransfer of 30 μg of GDNF-encoding plasmid in the rat ciliary muscle, GDNF was produced for at least 7 months. Morphometric, electroretinographic and optokinetic analyses highlighted that this continuous release of GDNF delayed photoreceptors (PRs) as well as retinal functions loss until at least 70 days of age in RCS rats. Unexpectedly, increasing the GDNF secretion level accelerated PR degeneration and the loss of electrophysiological responses. This is the first report: (i) demonstrating the efficacy of GDNF delivery through non-viral gene therapy in RP; (ii) establishing the efficacy of intravitreal administration of GDNF in RP associated with a mutation in the retinal pigment epithelium; and (iii) warning against potential toxic effects of GDNF within the eye/retina.

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The kinetics and microstructure of solid-phase crystallization under continuous heating conditions and random distribution of nuclei are analyzed. An Arrhenius temperature dependence is assumed for both nucleation and growth rates. Under these circumstances, the system has a scaling law such that the behavior of the scaled system is independent of the heating rate. Hence, the kinetics and microstructure obtained at different heating rates differ only in time and length scaling factors. Concerning the kinetics, it is shown that the extended volume evolves with time according to αex = [exp(κCt′)]m+1, where t′ is the dimensionless time. This scaled solution not only represents a significant simplification of the system description, it also provides new tools for its analysis. For instance, it has been possible to find an analytical dependence of the final average grain size on kinetic parameters. Concerning the microstructure, the existence of a length scaling factor has allowed the grain-size distribution to be numerically calculated as a function of the kinetic parameters

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Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effectin human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: A central question for ecologists is the extent to which anthropogenic disturbances (e.g. tourism) might impact wildlife and affect the systems under study. From a research perspective, identifying the effects of human disturbance caused by research-related activities is crucial in order to understand and account for potential biases and derive appropriate conclusions from the data. RESULTS: Here, we document a case of biological adjustment to chronic human disturbance in a colonial seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), breeding on remote and protected islands of the Southern ocean. Using heart rate (HR) as a measure of the stress response, we show that, in a colony with areas exposed to the continuous presence of humans (including scientists) for over 50 years, penguins have adjusted to human disturbance and habituated to certain, but not all, types of stressors. When compared to birds breeding in relatively undisturbed areas, birds in areas of high chronic human disturbance were found to exhibit attenuated HR responses to acute anthropogenic stressors of low-intensity (i.e. sounds or human approaches) to which they had been subjected intensely over the years. However, such attenuation was not apparent for high-intensity stressors (i.e. captures for scientific research) which only a few individuals experience each year. CONCLUSIONS: Habituation to anthropogenic sounds/approaches could be an adaptation to deal with chronic innocuous stressors, and beneficial from a research perspective. Alternately, whether penguins have actually habituated to anthropogenic disturbances over time or whether human presence has driven the directional selection of human-tolerant phenotypes, remains an open question with profound ecological and conservation implications, and emphasizes the need for more knowledge on the effects of human disturbance on long-term studied populations.

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Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

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BACKGROUND: A major goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-1-infected persons is the recovery of CD4 T lymphocytes, resulting in thorough protection against opportunistic complications. Interruptions of ART are still frequent. The long-term effect on CD4 T-cell recovery and clinical events remains unknown. METHODS: Immunological and clinical endpoints were evaluated in 2491 participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study initiating ART during a mean follow-up of 7.1 years. Data were analysed in persons with treatment interruptions (n = 1271; group A), continuous ART, but intermittent HIV-1 RNA at least 1000 copies/ml (n = 469; group B) and continuous ART and HIV-1 RNA constantly less than 1000 copies/ml (n = 751; group C). Risk factors for low CD4 T-cell counts and clinical events were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: In groups A-C, CD4 T lymphocytes increased to a median of 427, 525 and 645 cells/μl at 8 years. In group A, 63.0 and 37.2% reached above 350 and 500 CD4 T cells/μl, whereas in group B 76.3 and 55.8% and in group C 87.3 and 68.0% reached these thresholds (P < 0.001). CD4 T-cell recovery directly depended on the cumulative duration of treatment interruptions. In addition, participants of group A had more Centers for Disease Control and Prevention B/C events, resulting in an increased risk of death. Major risk factors for not reaching CD4 T cells above 500 cells/μl included lower baseline CD4 T-cell count, higher age and hepatitis C virus co-infection. CONCLUSION: In persons receiving continuous ART larger CD4 T-cell recovery and a reduced risk for opportunistic complications and death was observed. CD4 T-cell recovery was smaller in persons with treatment interruptions more than 6 months.

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Expression of water soluble proteins of fresh pork Longissimus thoracis from 4 pure breed pigs (Duroc, Large White, Landrace, and Piétrain) was studied to identify candidate protein markers for meat quality. Surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (SELDI-TOF-MS) was used to obtain the soluble protein profiles of Longissimus thoracis muscles. The pure breeds showed differences among the studied meat quality traits (pHu, drip loss, androstenone, marbling, intramuscular fat, texture, and moisture), but no significant differences were detected in sensory analysis. Associations between protein peaks obtained with SELDI-TOF-MS and meat quality traits, mainly water holding capacity, texture and skatole were observed. Of these peaks, a total of 10 peaks from CM10 array and 6 peaks from Q10 array were candidate soluble protein markers for pork loin quality. The developed models explained a limited proportion of the variability, however they point out interesting relationships between protein expression and meat quality

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Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

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Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.

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Background: oscillatory activity, which can be separated in background and oscillatory burst pattern activities, is supposed to be representative of local synchronies of neural assemblies. Oscillatory burst events should consequently play a specific functional role, distinct from background EEG activity – especially for cognitive tasks (e.g. working memory tasks), binding mechanisms and perceptual dynamics (e.g. visual binding), or in clinical contexts (e.g. effects of brain disorders). However extracting oscillatory events in single trials, with a reliable and consistent method, is not a simple task. Results: in this work we propose a user-friendly stand-alone toolbox, which models in a reasonable time a bump time-frequency model from the wavelet representations of a set of signals. The software is provided with a Matlab toolbox which can compute wavelet representations before calling automatically the stand-alone application. Conclusion: The tool is publicly available as a freeware at the address: http:// www.bsp.brain.riken.jp/bumptoolbox/toolbox_home.html

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The goal of this work was to move structural health monitoring (SHM) one step closer to being ready for mainstream use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) Office of Bridges and Structures. To meet this goal, the objective of this project was to implement a pilot multi-sensor continuous monitoring system on the Iowa Falls Arch Bridge such that autonomous data analysis, storage, and retrieval can be demonstrated. The challenge with this work was to develop the open channels for communication, coordination, and cooperation of various Iowa DOT offices that could make use of the data. In a way, the end product was to be something akin to a control system that would allow for real-time evaluation of the operational condition of a monitored bridge. Development and finalization of general hardware and software components for a bridge SHM system were investigated and completed. This development and finalization was framed around the demonstration installation on the Iowa Falls Arch Bridge. The hardware system focused on using off-the-shelf sensors that could be read in either “fast” or “slow” modes depending on the desired monitoring metric. As hoped, the installed system operated with very few problems. In terms of communications—in part due to the anticipated installation on the I-74 bridge over the Mississippi River—a hardline digital subscriber line (DSL) internet connection and grid power were used. During operation, this system would transmit data to a central server location where the data would be processed and then archived for future retrieval and use. The pilot monitoring system was developed for general performance evaluation purposes (construction, structural, environmental, etc.) such that it could be easily adapted to the Iowa DOT’s bridges and other monitoring needs. The system was developed allowing easy access to near real-time data in a format usable to Iowa DOT engineers.

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The infiltration of river water into aquifers is of high relevance to drinking-water production and is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic and riparian zone, but the distribution and quantification of the infiltrating water are difficult to determine using conventional hydrological methods (e.g., borehole logging and tracer tests). By time-lapse inverting crosshole ERT (electrical resistivity tomography) monitoring data, we imaged groundwater flow patterns driven by river water infiltrating a perialpine gravel aquifer in northeastern Switzerland. This was possible because the electrical resistivity of the infiltrating water changed during rainfall-runoff events. Our time-lapse resistivity models indicated rather complex flow patterns as a result of spatially heterogeneous bank filtration and aquifer heterogeneity. The upper part of the aquifer was most affected by the river infiltrate, and the highest groundwater velocities and possible preferential flow occurred at shallow to intermediate depths. Time series of the reconstructed resistivity models matched groundwater electrical resistivity data recorded on borehole loggers in the upper and middle parts of the aquifer, whereas the resistivity models displayed smaller variations and delayed responses with respect to the logging data. in the lower part. This study demonstrated that crosshole ERT monitoring of natural electrical resistivity variations of river infiltrate could be used to image and quantify 3D bank filtration and aquifer dynamics at a high spatial resolution.

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Multiple motor function and strength assessment tools exist for the evaluation of neuromuscular diseases, but most do not directly assess functional ability in the patients' daily physical activity in their home environment. In this study our aim was to assess: 1) the feasibility and accuracy of physical activity monitoring during two days in a home environment of five DMD patients using a non-commercialized monitor containing a 3D accelerometer and a gyroscope, 2) if a difference in the physical activity parameters could be measured before and one month after starting prednisolone. We reliably quantified the time spend sitting, standing, lying, walking, the number of steps taken, the cadence, the number of walking episodes and their duration as well as how these were distributed over the day. Parameters possibly reflecting endurance, such as the duration of the walking episodes or the succession of two or three walking episodes lasting more than 30 s were the most improved after prednisolone treatment. This degree of detailed determination of physical activity in a home environment has not been previously reported in neuromuscular disorders to our knowledge and some of the reported parameters are potential new outcome measures in clinical trials.