An analysis of the Galveston Hurricane using the 20CR data set

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) is an atmospheric dataset consisting of 56 ensemble members, which covers the entire globe and reaches back to 1871. To assess the suitability of this dataset for studying past extremes, we analysed a prominent extreme event, namely the Galveston Hurricane, which made landfall in September 1900 in Texas, USA. The ensemble mean of 20CR shows a track of the pressure minimum with a small standard deviation among the 56 ensemble members in the area of the Gulf of Mexico. However, there are systematic differences between the assimilated “Best Track” from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the ensemble mean track in 20CR. East of the Strait of Florida, the tracks derived from 20CR are located systematically northeast of the assimilated track while in the Gulf of Mexico, the 20CR tracks are systematically shifted to the southwest compared to the IBTrACS position. The hurricane can also be observed in the wind field, which shows a cyclonic rotation and a relatively calm zone in the centre of the hurricane. The 20CR data reproduce the pressure gradient and cyclonic wind field. Regarding the amplitude of the wind speeds, the ensemble mean values from 20CR are significantly lower than the wind speeds known from measurements.

A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

Prevalence of cam and pincer-type deformities on hip MRI in an asymptomatic young Swiss female population: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES Femoroacetabular impingement is proposed to cause early osteoarthritis (OA) in the non-dysplastic hip. We previously reported on the prevalence of femoral deformities in a young asymptomatic male population. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of both femoral and acetabular types of impingement in young females. METHODS We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of asymptomatic young females. All participants completed a set of questionnaires and underwent clinical examination of the hip. A random sample was subsequently invited to obtain magnetic resonance images (MRI) of the hip. All MRIs were read for cam-type deformities, increased acetabular depths, labral lesions, and impingement pits. Prevalence estimates of cam-type deformities and increased acetabular depths were estimated, and relationships between deformities and signs of joint damage were examined using logistic regression models. RESULTS The study included 283 subjects, and 80 asymptomatic females with a mean age of 19.3 years attended MRI. Fifteen showed some evidence of cam-type deformities, but none were scored to be definite. The overall prevalence was therefore 0% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0-5%]. The prevalence of increased acetabular depth was 10% (95% CI 5-19). No association was found between increased acetabular depth and decreased internal rotation of the hip. Increased acetabular depth was not associated with signs of labral damage. CONCLUSIONS Definite cam-type deformities in women are rare compared to men, whereas the prevalence of increased acetabular depth is higher, suggesting that femoroacetabular impingement has different gender-related biomechanical mechanisms.