Analysts' Forecast Accuracy in Germany: The Effect of Different Accounting Principles and Changes of Accounting Principles

This paper assesses the influence of an adoption of IAS/IFRS or US GAAP on the financial analysts’ forecast accuracy in a homogenous institutional framework. Our findings suggest that the forecast accuracy is higher for estimates based on IFRS or US GAAP data than for forecasts based on German GAAP data.Moreover, in the year of switching from German GAAP to US GAAP the forecast accuracy is lower than in other years. The paper contributes to prior research by providing evidence about the usefulness of international accounting data and about the adoption effects of a change to such accounting principles.

A Simple Accounting-based Valuation Model for the Debt Tax Shield

This paper describes a simple way to integrate the debt tax shield into an accounting-based valuation model. The market value of equity is determined by forecasting residual operating income, which is calculated by charging operating income for the operating assets at a required return that accounts for the tax benefit that comes from borrowing to raise cash for the operations. The model assumes that the firm maintains a deterministic financial leverage ratio, which tends to converge quickly to typical steady-state levels over time. From a practical point of view, this characteristic is of particular help, because it allows a continuing value calculation at the end of a short forecast period.

Executive compensation and executive incentive problems: an empirical analysis

The question of whether the design of the corporate executive pay package reflects an attempt to reduce agency costs between shareholders an managers is adressed. The components of senior executive pay are found to vary systematically across firms in a manner that cannot easily be explained by tax effects, and which would indicate that individual elements of pay are aimed at controlling for limited horizon and risk exposure problems. Managerial decisions and the structure of managerial pay therefore appear to be interrelated.

Decision-usefulness of ideal cost- and ideal value accounting for valuation and stewardship

This paper contrasts the decision-usefulness of prototype accounting regimes based on perfect accounting for value, i.e. ideal value accounting (IVA), and perfect matching of cost, i.e. ideal cost accounting (ICA). The regimes are analyzed in the context of a firm with overlapping capacity investments where projects earn excess returns and residual income is utilized as performance indicator. Provided that IVA and ICA systematically differ based on the criterion of unconditional conservatism, we assess their respective decision-usefulness for different valuation- and stewardship-scenarios. Assuming that addressees solely observe current accounting data of the firm, ICA provides information which is useful for valuation and stewardship without reservation whereas IVA entails problems under specific assumptions.

Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

Noisy kriging-based optimization methods: A unified implementation within the DiceOptim package

Kriging-based optimization relying on noisy evaluations of complex systems has recently motivated contributions from various research communities. Five strategies have been implemented in the DiceOptim package. The corresponding functions constitute a user-friendly tool for solving expensive noisy optimization problems in a sequential framework, while offering some flexibility for advanced users. Besides, the implementation is done in a unified environment, making this package a useful device for studying the relative performances of existing approaches depending on the experimental setup. An overview of the package structure and interface is provided, as well as a description of the strategies and some insight about the implementation challenges and the proposed solutions. The strategies are compared to some existing optimization packages on analytical test functions and show promising performances.

RNetCDF – A Package for Reading and Writing NetCDF Datasets

This paper describes the RNetCDF package (version 1.6), an interface for reading and writing files in Unidata NetCDF format, and gives an introduction to the NetCDF file format. NetCDF is a machine independent binary file format which allows storage of different types of array based data, along with short metadata descriptions. The package presented here allows access to the most important functions of the NetCDF C-interface for reading, writing, and modifying NetCDF datasets. In this paper, we present a short overview on the NetCDF file format and show usage examples of the package.

Patient information leaflets: informing or frightening? A focus group study exploring patients' emotional reactions and subsequent behavior towards package leaflets of commonly prescribed medications in family practices.

BACKGROUND The purpose of patient information leaflets (PILs) is to inform patients about the administration, precautions and potential side effects of their prescribed medication. Despite European Commission guidelines aiming at increasing readability and comprehension of PILs little is known about the potential risk information has on patients. This article explores patients' reactions and subsequent behavior towards risk information conveyed in PILs of commonly prescribed drugs by general practitioners (GPs) for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes, hypertension or hypercholesterolemia; the most frequent cause for consultations in family practices in Germany. METHODS We conducted six focus groups comprising 35 patients which were recruited in GP practices. Transcripts were read and coded for themes; categories were created by abstracting data and further refined into a coding framework. RESULTS Three interrelated categories are presented: (i) The vast amount of side effects and drug interactions commonly described in PILs provoke various emotional reactions in patients which (ii) lead to specific patient behavior of which (iii) consulting the GP for assistance is among the most common. Findings show that current description of potential risk information caused feelings of fear and anxiety in the reader resulting in undesirable behavioral reactions. CONCLUSIONS Future PILs need to convey potential risk information in a language that is less frightening while retaining the information content required to make informed decisions about the prescribed medication. Thus, during the production process greater emphasis needs to be placed on testing the degree of emotional arousal provoked in patients when reading risk information to allow them to undertake a benefit-risk-assessment of their medication that is based on rational rather than emotional (fearful) reactions.

Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application.

The Martian Gas-Analytic Package for the Landing Platform Experiments of the ExoMars 2018

The paper describes the architecture of the Martian Gas Analytic Package, which is proposed for the Russian ExoMars Lander 2018.