Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

Experimental evidence for a demographic cline in Panstrongylus megistus populations

The population biology of three populations of Panstrongylus megistus was compared to determine possible influence on the behaviour and epidemiological importance of this species. The results demonstrated differences in terms of egg eclosion time, nymphal mortality and development rates, and feeding and defaecation rates. These differences appeared to follow a geographical cline, primarily reflecting different degrees of adaptation to domestic habitats.

Evidence Base to Inform the Operational Arrangements for the Proposed Prescribing and Supply of Specialist Medicines

Executive Summary

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science

Resume : L'utilisation de l'encre comme indice en sciences forensiques est décrite et encadrée par une littérature abondante, comprenant entre autres deux standards de l'American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). La grande majorité de cette littérature se préoccupe de l'analyse des caractéristiques physiques ou chimiques des encres. Les standards ASTM proposent quelques principes de base qui concernent la comparaison et l'interprétation de la valeur d'indice des encres en sciences forensiques. L'étude de cette littérature et plus particulièrement des standards ASTM, en ayant a l'esprit les développements intervenus dans le domaine de l'interprétation de l'indice forensique, montre qu'il existe un potentiel certain pour l'amélioration de l'utilisation de l'indice encre et de son impact dans l'enquête criminelle. Cette thèse propose d'interpréter l'indice encre en se basant sur le cadre défini par le théorème de Bayes. Cette proposition a nécessité le développement d'un système d'assurance qualité pour l'analyse et la comparaison d'échantillons d'encre. Ce système d'assurance qualité tire parti d'un cadre théorique nouvellement défini. La méthodologie qui est proposée dans ce travail a été testée de manière compréhensive, en tirant parti d'un set de données spécialement créer pour l'occasion et d'outils importés de la biométrie. Cette recherche répond de manière convaincante à un problème concret généralement rencontré en sciences forensiques. L'information fournie par le criminaliste, lors de l'examen de traces, est souvent bridée, car celui-ci essaie de répondre à la mauvaise question. L'utilisation d'un cadre théorique explicite qui définit et formalise le goal de l'examen criminaliste, permet de déterminer les besoins technologiques et en matière de données. Le développement de cette technologie et la collection des données pertinentes peut être justifiées économiquement et achevée de manière scientifique. Abstract : The contribution of ink evidence to forensic science is described and supported by an abundant literature and by two standards from the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). The vast majority of the available literature is concerned with the physical and chemical analysis of ink evidence. The relevant ASTM standards mention some principles regarding the comparison of pairs of ink samples and the evaluation of their evidential value. The review of this literature and, more specifically, of the ASTM standards in the light of recent developments in the interpretation of forensic evidence has shown some potential improvements, which would maximise the benefits of the use of ink evidence in forensic science. This thesis proposes to interpret ink evidence using the widely accepted and recommended Bayesian theorem. This proposition has required the development of a new quality assurance process for the analysis and comparison of ink samples, as well as of the definition of a theoretical framework for ink evidence. The proposed technology has been extensively tested using a large dataset of ink samples and state of the art tools, commonly used in biometry. Overall, this research successfully answers to a concrete problem generally encountered in forensic science, where scientists tend to self-limit the usefulness of the information that is present in various types of evidence, by trying to answer to the wrong questions. The declaration of an explicit framework, which defines and formalises their goals and expected contributions to the criminal and civil justice system, enables the determination of their needs in terms of technology and data. The development of this technology and the collection of the data is then justified economically, structured scientifically and can be proceeded efficiently.

What underlies localization and urbanization economies? Evidence from the location of new firms

The objective of this paper is to analyze why firms in some industries locate in specialized economic environments (localization economies) while those in other industries prefer large city locations (urbanization economies). To this end, we examine the location decisions of new manufacturing firms in Spain at the city level and for narrowly defined industries (three-digit level). First, we estimate firm location models to obtain estimates that reflect the importance of localization and urbanization economies in each industry. In a second step, we regress these estimates on industry characteristics that are related to the potential importance of three agglomeration theories, namely, labor market pooling, input sharing and knowledge spillovers. Localization effects are low and urbanization effects are high in knowledge-intensive industries, suggesting that firms (partly) locate in large cities to reap the benefits of inter-industry knowledge spillovers. We also find that localization effects are high in industries that employ workers whose skills are more industry-specific, suggesting that industries (partly) locate in specialized economic environments to share a common pool of specialized workers.

Media exposure and internal migration-evidence from Indonesia

This paper investigates the impact of television on internal migration in Indonesia. We exploit the differential introduction of private television throughout the country and the variation in signal reception due to topography to estimate the causal effect of media exposure. Our estimates reveal important long and short run effects. An increase of one standard deviation in the number of private TV channels received in the area of residence reduces future inter-provincial migration by 1.7-2.7 percentage points, and all migration (inter and intra-provincial) by 4-7.4 percentage points. Short run effects are slightly smaller, but still sizeable and statistically significant. We also show that respondents less exposed to private TV are more likely to consider themselves among the poorest groups of the society. As we discuss in a stylized model of migration choice under imperfect information, these findings are consistent with Indonesia citizens over-estimating the net gains from internal migration.

The gap between scientific evidence and clinical practice : 5-aminosalicylates are frequently used for the treatment of Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND: There is uncertain evidence of effectiveness of 5-aminosalicylates (5-ASA) to induce and maintain response and remission of active Crohn's disease (CD), and weak evidence to support their use in post-operative CD. AIM: To assess the frequency and determinants of 5-ASA use in CD patients and to evaluate the physicians' perception of clinical response and side effects to 5-ASA. METHODS: Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort, which collects data since 2006 on a large sample of IBD patients, were analysed. Information from questionnaires regarding utilisation of treatments and perception of response to 5-ASA were evaluated. Logistic regression modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 5-ASA use. RESULTS: Of 1420 CD patients, 835 (59%) were ever treated with 5-ASA from diagnosis to latest follow-up. Disease duration >10 years and colonic location were both significantly associated with 5-ASA use. 5-ASA treatment was judged to be successful in 46% (378/825) of treatment episodes (physician global assessment). Side effects prompting stop of therapy were found in 12% (98/825) episodes in which 5-ASA had been stopped. CONCLUSIONS: 5-Aminosalicylates were frequently prescribed in patients with Crohn's disease in the Swiss IBD cohort. This observation stands in contrast to the scientific evidence demonstrating a very limited role of 5-ASA compounds in the treatment of Crohn's disease.

Land use regulation and productivity - Land matters: Evidence from a UK Supermarket chain

We use store-specific data for a major UK supermarket chain to estimate the impact of planning on store output. Using the quasi-natural experiment of the variation in policies between England and other UK countries, we isolate the impact of Town Centre First policies. We find that space contributes directly to store productivity; and planning policies in England directly reduce output both by reducing store sizes and forcing stores onto less productive sites. We estimate that since the late 1980s planning policies have imposed a loss of output of at least 18.3 to 24.9% - more than a “lost decade’s” growth. JEL codes: D2, L51, L81, R32.

Experimental evidence and ecological perspectives for the adaptation of Schistosoma mansoni Sambon, 1907 (Digenea: Schistosomatidae) to a wild host, the water-rat, Nectomys squamipes Brants, 1827 (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae)

Due to the semi aquatic habits and the overlap of the geographical distribution of the water-rat, Nectomys spp., with schistosomiasis endemic areas, these wild rodents are very likely to acquire Schistosoma mansoni infection in their daily activities. The role of the water-rat in the S. mansoni cycle would be substantiated if one could prove that these rodents acquire the parasite during their own activity time, a completely independent time schedule of human activities. To pursue this goal, we performed two field experiments in the municipality of Sumidouro, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a schistosomiasis endemic area where N. squamipes is found naturally infected. One experiment was devised as a series of observations of activity time of the water-rat. The other experiment was a test of the occurrence of late transmission of S. mansoni to the water-rat. The daily activity pattern showed that the water-rat is active chiefly just after sunset. At both diurnal and late exposition essays the water-rat sentinels got infected by S. mansoni. These findings clarify ecological and behavioral components necessary to the adaptation of S. mansoni to the water-rat as a non human definitive host and the existence of a transmission cycle involving this animals as a reservoir.

Five new CYLD mutations in skin appendage tumors and evidence that aspartic acid 681 in CYLD is essential for deubiquitinase activity.

Brooke-Spiegler syndrome, familial cylindromatosis, and familial trichoepithelioma are autosomal-dominant genetic predispositions for benign tumors of skin appendages caused by mutations in the CYLD gene localized on chromosome 16q12-q13. The encoded protein functions as ubiquitin-specific protease (UBP), which negatively regulates NF-kappaB and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) signaling. We investigated five families affected with these skin neoplasms and identified four premature stop codons and the novel missense mutation D681G in a family in which 11 of 12 investigated tumors were trichoepitheliomas. CYLD protein harboring this missense mutation had a significant reduced ability to inhibit TNF receptor-associated factor (TRAF)2- and TRAF6-mediated NF-kappaB activation, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFalpha)-induced JNK signaling, and to deubiquitinate TRAF2. CYLD-D681G was coimmunoprecipitated by TRAF2, but was unable to cleave K63-linked polyubiquitin chains. Aspartic acid 681 is highly conserved in CYLD homologues and other members of the UBP family, but does not belong to the Cys and His boxes providing the CYLD catalytic triad (Cys601, His871, and Asp889). As reported previously, the homologous residue D295 of HAUSP/USP-7 forms a hydrogen bond with the C-terminal end of ubiquitin and is important for the enzymatic activity. These results underline that D681 in CYLD is required for cleavage of K63-linked polyubiquitin chains.