Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

Ectomycorrhizal symbiosis can enhance plant nutrition through improved access to discrete organic nutrient patches of high resource quality

It is known that roots can respond to patches of fertility; however, root proliferation is often too slow to exploit resources fully, and organic nutrient patches may be broken down and leached, immobilized or chemically fixed before they are invaded by the root system. The ability of fungal hyphae to exploit resource patches is far greater than that of roots due to their innate physiological and morphological plasticity, which allows comprehensive exploration and rapid colonization of resource patches in soils. The fungal symbionts of ectomycorrhizal plants excrete significant quantities of enzymes such as chitinases, phosphatases and proteases. These might allow the organic residue to be tapped directly for nutrients such as N and P. Pot experiments conducted with nutrient-stressed ectomycorrhizal and control willow plants showed that when high quality organic nutrient patches were added, they were colonized rapidly by the ectomycorrhizal mycelium. These established willows (0.5 m tall) were colonized by Hebeloma syrjense P. Karst. for 1 year prior to nutrient patch addition. Within days after patch addition, colour changes in the leaves of the mycorrhizal plants (reflecting improved nutrition) were apparent, and after I month the concentration of N and P in the foliage of mycorrhizal plants was significantly greater than that in non-mycorrhizal plants subject to the same nutrient addition. It seems likely that the mycorrhizal plants were able to compete effectively with the wider soil microbiota and tap directly into the high quality organic resource patch via their extra-radical mycelium. We hypothesize that ectomycorrhizal plants may reclaim some of the N and P invested in seed production by direct recycling from failed seeds in the soil. The rapid exploitation of similar discrete, transient, high-quality nutrient patches may have led to underestimations when determining the nutritional benefits of ectomycorrhizal colonization.

Vocabulary acquisition in young children: the role of the story

Sharing storybooks with babies increases their future achievements in literacy, especially in reading (Hall, 2001; Moore and Wade, 1997, 2003; Scarborough et al., 1991; Wade and Moore, 1998; Wells, 1985). This study, focusing on case studies of two 20-month-old children, attempts to identify the role the storybook plays in children’s vocabulary acquisition. Their mothers adopted a regime of daily reading of specific picture books over a six-week period, and recorded the children’s acquisition of new vocabulary, in order to explore what specific contribution these texts made to the children’s speech. The findings demonstrate that storybooks form one source of children’s newly-acquired vocabulary. Factors that might account for this were more difficult to determine through a study of this scale.

Gender, childhood and children’s literature: the CIRCL approach

This paper explores the unique approach to childhood and children’s literature of the research and teaching of the ‘Graduate Centre for International Research in Childhood: Literature, Culture, Media (CIRCL)’. CIRCL follows in its work the arguments of UK critical theorist Jacqueline Rose in her seminal 1984 book The case of Peter Pan or the impossibility of children’s fiction. Rose’s work has been widely and routinely referenced in Children’s Literature studies particularly, but CIRCL interprets her arguments as having quite different implications than those usually assumed. Rose is generally attributed with having pointed out that ‘childhood’ is not one, homogenous category, but that childhood is divided by gender, race, and ethnic, political and religious (and so on) identities. But for CIRCL this is only a first step in Rose’s arguments and certainly one not unique to her work anyway: the perception of various cultural and historical childhoods is widely held. Instead, my paper explores how Rose’s arguments are centrally about how ‘childhood’ itself cannot be maintained in the face of division, a division, moreover, which operates inevitably at every level, and which derives from Rose’s interpretation of psychoanalysis as formulated by Sigmund Freud, which Rose derives in turn from her readings of the interpretations of Freud by French analyst Jacques Lacan and French critical theorist Jacques Derrida. Finally, my paper argues how Rose’s position is about any ‘identity’, including gender and that this allies her work closely to that of the famous gender theorist Judith Butler, whose arguments are often (mis) understood in the same ways as those of Rose.

Design and techno-economic evaluation of microbial oil production as a renewable resource for biodiesel and oleochemical production

Experimental results from the open literature have been employed for the design and techno-economic evaluation of four process flowsheets for the production of microbial oil or biodiesel. The fermentation of glucose-based media using the yeast strain Rhodosporidium toruloides has been considered. Biodiesel production was based on the exploitation of either direct transesterification (without extraction of lipids from microbial biomass) or indirect transesterifaction of extracted microbial oil. When glucose-based renewable resources are used as carbon source for an annual production capacity of 10,000 t microbial oil and zero cost of glucose (assuming development of integrated biorefineries in existing industries utilising waste or by-product streams) the estimated unitary cost of purified microbial oil is $3.4/kg. Biodiesel production via indirect transesterification of extracted microbial oil proved more cost-competitive process compared to the direct conversion of dried yeast cells. For a price of glucose of $400/t oil production cost and biodiesel production cost are estimated to be $5.5/kg oil and $5.9/kg biodiesel, correspondingly. Industrial implementation of microbial oil production from oleaginous yeast is strongly dependent on the feedstock used and on the fermentation stage where significantly higher productivities and final microbial oil concentrations should be achieved.

Dying young: a palaeopathological analysis of child health in Roman Britain

Children represent the most vulnerable members of society, and as such provide valuable insight into past lifeways. Adverse environmental conditions translate more readily into the osteological record of children, making them primary evidence for the investigation of ill-health in the past. To date, most information on growing up in Roman Britain has been based on the Classical literature, or discussed in palaeopathological studies with a regional focus, e.g. Dorset or Durnovaria. Thus, the lifestyles and everyday realities of children throughout Britannia remained largely unknown. This study sets out to fill this gap by providing the first large scale analysis of Romano-British children from town and country. The palaeopathological analysis of 1643 non-adult (0-17 years) skeletons, compiled from the literature (N=690) and primary osteological analysis (N=953), from 27 urban and rural settlements has highlighted diverse patterns in non-adult mortality and morbidity. The distribution of ages-at-death suggest that older children and adolescents migrated from country to town, possibly for commencing their working lives. True prevalence rates suggest that caries (1.8%) and enamel hypoplasia (11.4%) were more common in children from major urban towns, whereas children in the countryside displayed higher frequencies of scurvy (6.9%), cribra orbitalia (27.7%), porotic hyperostosis (6.2%) and endocranial lesions (10.9%). Social inequality in late Roman Britain may have been the driving force behind these urban-rural dichotomies. The results may point to exploitation of the peasantry on the one hand, and higher status of the urban population as a more ‘Romanised’ group on the other. Comparison with Iron Age and post-medieval non-adults also demonstrated a decline in health in the Roman period, with some levels of ill-health, particularly in the rural children, similar to those from post-medieval London. This research provides the most comprehensive study of non-adult morbidity and mortality in Roman Britain to date. It has provided new insights into Romano-British lifeways and presents suggestions for further work.

Kazakhstan: long-term economic growth and the role of the oil sector

This study combines a narrative and modelling framework to analyse the development of Kazakhstan’s oil sector since its takeoff following separation from the USSR. As in the case of other emerging or transitional countries with large natural resource endowments, a key question is whether the exploitation of the natural resource is a benefit to longer term economic development: is it a curse, a blessing – or neither? Narrative evidence suggests that the establishment of good governance, in terms of institutions and policies, provides a background to sound long-term development, especially if combined with the development of sectors outside the natural resource sector, for example diversification into manufacturing and services, often through attracting FDI. The narrative is supported by econometric modelling of the relationship between domestic output, overseas output and exports of oil, which finds in favour of a sustained positive effect of oil exports on GDP. The model then provides a basis for projection of the growth in GDP given a consensus view of likely developments in the oil price.

Improved information about the vertical location and extent of monolayer clouds from POLDER3 measurements in the oxygen A-band

This paper describes new advances in the exploitation of oxygen A-band measurements from POLDER3 sensor onboard PARASOL, satellite platform within the A-Train. These developments result from not only an account of the dependence of POLDER oxygen parameters to cloud optical thickness τ and to the scene's geometrical conditions but also, and more importantly, from the finer understanding of the sensitivity of these parameters to cloud vertical extent. This sensitivity is made possible thanks to the multidirectional character of POLDER measurements. In the case of monolayer clouds that represent most of cloudy conditions, new oxygen parameters are obtained and calibrated from POLDER3 data colocalized with the measurements of the two active sensors of the A-Train: CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CloudSat. From a parameterization that is (μs, τ) dependent, with μs the cosine of the solar zenith angle, a cloud top oxygen pressure (CTOP) and a cloud middle oxygen pressure (CMOP) are obtained, which are estimates of actual cloud top and middle pressures (CTP and CMP). Performances of CTOP and CMOP are presented by class of clouds following the ISCCP classification. In 2008, the coefficient of the correlation between CMOP and CMP is 0.81 for cirrostratus, 0.79 for stratocumulus, 0.75 for deep convective clouds. The coefficient of the correlation between CTOP and CTP is 0.75, 0.73, and 0.79 for the same cloud types. The score obtained by CTOP, defined as the confidence in the retrieval for a particular range of inferred value and for a given error, is higher than the one of MODIS CTP estimate. Scores of CTOP are the highest for bin value of CTP superior in numbers. For liquid (ice) clouds and an error of 30 hPa (50 hPa), the score of CTOP reaches 50% (70%). From the difference between CTOP and CMOP, a first estimate of the cloud vertical extent h is possible. A second estimate of h comes from the correlation between the angular standard deviation of POLDER oxygen pressure σPO2 and the cloud vertical extent. This correlation is studied in detail in the case of liquid clouds. It is shown to be spatially and temporally robust, except for clouds above land during winter months. The analysis of the correlation's dependence on the scene's characteristics leads to a parameterization providing h from σPO2. For liquid water clouds above ocean in 2008, the mean difference between the actual cloud vertical extent and the one retrieved from σPO2 (from the pressure difference) is 5 m (−12 m). The standard deviation of the mean difference is close to 1000 m for the two methods. POLDER estimates of the cloud geometrical thickness obtain a global score of 50% confidence for a relative error of 20% (40%) of the estimate for ice (liquid) clouds over ocean. These results need to be validated outside of the CALIPSO/CloudSat track.

Regional representativity of AERONET observation sites during the biomass burning season in South America determined by correlation studies with MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth

This paper presents an analysis of ground-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) observations by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) in South America from 2001 to 2007 in comparison with the satellite AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), aboard TERRA and AQUA satellites. Data of 12 observation sites were used with primary interest in AERONET sites located in or downwind of areas with high biomass burning activity and with measurements available for the full time range. Fires cause the predominant carbonaceous aerosol emission signal during the dry season in South America and are therefore a special focus of this study. Interannual and seasonal behavior of the observed AOD at different sites were investigated, showing clear differences between purely fire and urban influenced sites. An intercomparison of AERONET and MODIS AOD annual correlations revealed that neither an interannual long-term trend may be observed nor that correlations differ significantly owing to different overpass times of TERRA and AQUA. Individual anisotropic representativity areas for each AERONET site were derived by correlating daily AOD of each site for all years with available individual MODIS AOD pixels gridded to 1 degrees x 1 degrees. Results showed that for many sites a good AOD correlation (R(2) > 0.5) persists for large, often strongly anisotropic, areas. The climatological areas of common regional aerosol regimes often extend over several hundreds of kilometers, sometimes far across national boundaries. As a practical application, these strongly inhomogeneous and anisotropic areas of influence are being implemented in the tropospheric aerosol data assimilation system of the Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport Model coupled to the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS) at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). This new information promises an improved exploitation of local site sampling and, thus, chemical weather forecast.

Sexual System, Sex Ratio, and Group Living in the Shrimp Thor amboinensis (De Man): Relevance to Resource-Monopolization and Sex-Allocation Theories

The sexual system of the symbiotic shrimp Thor amboinensis is described, along with observations on sex ratio and host-use pattern of different populations. We used a comprehensive approach to elucidate the previously unknown sexual system of this shrimp. Dissections, scanning electron microscopy, size-frequency distribution analysis, and laboratory observations demonstrated that T amboinensis is a protandric hermaphrodite: shrimp first mature as males and change into females later in life. Thor amboinensis inhabited the large and structurally heterogeneous sea anemone Stichoclactyla helianthus in large groups (up to 11 individuals) more frequently than expected by chance alone. Groups exhibited no particularly complex social structure and showed male-biased sex ratios more frequently than expected by chance alone. The adult sex ratio was male-biased in the four separate populations studied, one of them being thousands of kilometers apart from the others. This study supports predictions central to theories of resource monopolization and sex allocation. Dissections demonstrated that unusually large males were parasitized by an undescribed species of isopod (family Entoniscidae). Infestation rates were similarly low in both sexes (approximate to 11%-12%). The available information suggests that T. amboinensis uses pure search promiscuity as a mating system. This hypothesis needs to be formally tested with mating behavior observations and field measurements on the movement pattern of both sexes of the species. Further detailed studies on the lifestyle and sexual system of all the species within this genus and the development of a molecular phylogeny are necessary to elucidate the evolutionary history of gender expression in the genus Thor.

Systematics and phylogeny of Cristacoxidae (Copepoda, Harpacticoida): a review

Both sexes of a new species of Noodtorthopsyllus Lang, 1965 (Harpacticoida, Cristacoxidae) from a sandy beach in Sao Paulo State (Brazil) are described using light and scanning electron microscopy. Noodtorthopsyllus tageae sp. nov. displays a mosaic of characters drawn from both Noodtorthopsyllus and Cristacoxa Huys, 1990, blurring the boundaries between both genera. Consequently, Cristacoxa, the type genus of the nominal family-group taxon Cristacoxidae Huys, 1990, is relegated to a junior subjective synonym of Noodtorthopsyllus, and its type species is transferred to the latter as N. petkovskii (Huys, 1990) comb. nov. A new genus Acuticoxa is proposed to accommodate A. ubatubaensis sp. nov. (type species), collected on the northern continental shelf of Sao Paulo State, and A. biarticulata sp. nov., previously identified as Laophontisochra sp., from the Northern Magellan Straits. Amended diagnoses are provided for Noodtorthopsyllus and Laophontisochra. Autapomorphies supporting the monophyly of the Cristacoxidae are re-evaluated, including new data on P3 endopod sexual dimorphism and caudal ramus development. It is concluded that a recently published hypothesis of a deeply rooted split of the family into two highly divergent lineages cannot be supported. Consequently, both Laophontisochra and Acuticoxa gen. nov. are removed from the Cristacoxidae and tentatively assigned to the Nannopodidae (ex Huntemanniidae), forming a clade with three other genera displaying coxal modifications on leg 1 (Rosacletodes Wells, 1985; Huntemannia Poppe, 1884; and an as yet undescribed genus from Brazil). Based on the sexual dimorphism of the P4 endopod, we propose to transfer Metahuntemannia Smirnov, 1946 and Pottekia Huys, 2009 from the Nannopodidae to the Canthocamptidae (subfamily Hemimesochrinae) where they are probably most closely related to Psammocamptus Mielke, 1975; Bathycamptus Huys & Thistle, 1989; Perucamptus Huys & Thistle, 1989; and Isthmiocaris George & Schminke, 2003. An identification key to the genera of the Nannopodidae is presented.

Historical carbon budget of the brazilian ethanol program

This work models the carbon neutralization capacity of Brazil`s ethanol program since 1975. In addition to biofuel, we also assessed the mitigation potential of other energy products, such as, bioelectricity, and CO(2) emissions captured during fermentation of sugar cane`s juice. Finally, we projected the neutralization capacity of sugar cane`s bio-energy system over the next 32 years. The balance between several carbon stocks and flows was considered in the model, including the effects of land-use change. Our results show that the neutralization of the carbon released due to land-use change was attained only in 1992, and the maximum mitigation potential of the sugar cane sector was 128 tonnes Of CO(2) per ha in 2006. An ideal reconstitution of the deployment of the sugar cane sector, including the full exploitation of bio-electricity`s potential, plus the capture Of CO(2) released during fermentation, shows that the neutralization of land-use change emissions would have been achieved in 1988, and its mitigation potential would have been 390 tCO(2)/ha. Finally, forecasts of the sector up to 2039 shows that the mitigation potential in 2039 corresponds to 836 tCO(2)/ha, which corresponds to 5.51 kg Of CO(2) per liter of ethanol produced, or 55% above the negative emission level. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synthesis and analgesic profile of conformationally constrained N-acylhydrazone analogues: Discovery of novel N-arylideneamino quinazolin-4(3H)-one compounds derived from natural safrole

In this work we reported the synthesis and evaluation of the analgesic, anti-inflammatory, and platelet anti-aggregating properties of new 3-(arylideneamino)-2-methyl-6,7-methylenedioxy-quinazolin-4 (3H)-one derivatives (3a-j), designed as conformationally constrained analogues of analgesic 1,3- benzodioxolyl-N- acylhydrazones (1) previously developed at LASSBio. Target compounds were synthesized in very good yields exploiting abundant Brazilian natural product safrole (2) as starting material. The pharmacological assays lead us to identify compounds LASSBio-1240 (3b) and LASSBio-1272 (3d) as new analgesic prototypes, presenting an antinociceptive pro. le more potent and effective than dipyrone and indomethacin used, respectively, as standards in AcOH-induced abdominal constrictions assay and in the formalin test. These results confirmed the success in the exploitation of conformation restriction strategy for identification of novel cyclic N-acylhydrazone analogues with optimized analgesic profile (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Major- and trace-element composition of olivine, perovskite, clinopyroxene, Cr-Fe-Ti oxides, phlogopite and host kamafugites and kimberlites, Alto Paranaiba, Brazil

An integrated whole-rock petrographic and geochemical study has been carried out on kamafugites and kimberlites of the Late Cretaceous Alto Paranaiba igneous province, in Brazil, and their main minerals, olivine, clinopyroxene, perovskite, phlogopite, spinels and ilmenite. Perovskite is by far the dominant repository for light lanthanides, Nb, Ta, Th and U, and occasionally other elements, reaching concentrations up to 3.4 x 10(4) chondrite values for light lanthanides and 105 chondrite for Th. A very strong fractionation between light and heavy lanthanides (chondrite-normalized La/Yb from similar to 175 to similar to 2000) is also observed. This is likely the first comprehensive dataset on natural perovskite. Clinopyroxene has variable trace-element contents. likely due to the different position of this phase in the crystallization sequence; Sc reaches values as high as 200 ppm whereas the lanthanides show very variable enrichment in light over heavy REE, and commonly show a negative Eu anomaly. The olivine, phlogopite (and tetra-ferriphlogopite), Cr-Ti oxide and ilmenite are substantially barren minerals for lanthanides and most other trace elements, with the exception of Ba, Cs and Rb in mica, and V, Nb and Ta in ilmenite. Estimated mineral/whole-rock partition coefficients for lanthanides in perovskite are similar to previous determinations, though much higher than those calculated in experiments with synthetic compositions, testifying once more to the complex behavior of these elements in a natural environment. The enormous potential for exploitation of lanthanides, Th, U and high-field-strength elements in the Brazilian kamafugites, kimberlites and related rocks is clearly shown.

Thermal behavior and structural properites of plant-derived eugenyl acetate

Eugenol is an allyl chain-substituted guaiacol in the biosynthesized phenylpropanoid compound class derived from Syzygium aromaticum L. and widely used in folk medicine. Nonetheless, its pharmacological use is limited by some problems, such as instability when exposed to light and high temperature. In order to enhance stability, the eugenol molecule was structurally modified, resulting in eugenyl acetate. The eugenyl acetate`s thermal behavior and crystal structure was then characterized by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) and compared to a commercial sample.