Numerical assessment of potential impacts of hydraulically fractured Bowland Shale on overlying aquifers

Natural gas extracted from hydraulically fractured shale formations potentially has a big impact on the global energy landscape. However, there are concerns of potential environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing of the shale formations, particularly those related to water quality. To evaluate the potential impact of hydraulically fractured shale on overlying aquifers, we conduct realizations of numerical modeling simulations to assess fluid flow and chloride transport from a synthetic Bowland Shale over a period of 11,000 years. The synthetic fractured shale was represented by a three-dimensional discrete fracture model that was developed by using the data from a Bowland Shale gas exploration in Lancashire, UK. Chloride mass exchange between fractures and the rock matrix was fully accounted for in the model. The assessment was carried out to investigate fluid and chloride mass fluxes before, during, and after hydraulic fracturing of the Bowland Shale. Impacts of the upward fracture height and aperture, as well as hydraulic conductivity of the multilayered bedrock system, are also included this assessment. This modeling revealed that the hydraulically fractured Bowland Shale is unlikely to pose a risk to its overlying groundwater quality when the induced fracture aperture is ≤200 µm. With the fracture aperture ≥1000 µm, the upward chloride flux becomes very sensitive to the upward fracture height growth and hydraulic conductivity of the multilayered bedrock system. In the extremely unlikely event of the upward fracture growth directly connecting the shale formation to the overlying Sherwood Sandstone aquifer with the fracture aperture ≥1000 µm, the upward chloride mass flux could potentially pose risks to the overlying aquifer in 100 years. The model study also revealed that the upward mass flux is significantly intercepted by the horizontal mass flux within a high permeable layer between the Bowland Shale and its overlying aquifers, reducing further upward flux toward the overlying aquifers.

Coupling ground and airborne geophysical data with upscaling techniques for regional groundwater modeling of heterogeneous aquifers: Case study of a sedimentary aquifer intruded by volcanic dykes in Northern Ireland

In highly heterogeneous aquifer systems, conceptualization of regional groundwater flow models frequently results in the generalization or negligence of aquifer heterogeneities, both of which may result in erroneous model outputs. The calculation of equivalence related to hydrogeological parameters and applied to upscaling provides a means of accounting for measurement scale information but at regional scale. In this study, the Permo-Triassic Lagan Valley strategic aquifer in Northern Ireland is observed to be heterogeneous, if not discontinuous, due to subvertical trending low-permeability Tertiary dolerite dykes. Interpretation of ground and aerial magnetic surveys produces a deterministic solution to dyke locations. By measuring relative permeabilities of both the dykes and the sedimentary host rock, equivalent directional permeabilities, that determine anisotropy calculated as a function of dyke density, are obtained. This provides parameters for larger scale equivalent blocks, which can be directly imported to numerical groundwater flow models. Different conceptual models with different degrees of upscaling are numerically tested and results compared to regional flow observations. Simulation results show that the upscaled permeabilities from geophysical data allow one to properly account for the observed spatial variations of groundwater flow, without requiring artificial distribution of aquifer properties. It is also found that an intermediate degree of upscaling, between accounting for mapped field-scale dykes and accounting for one regional anisotropy value (maximum upscaling) provides results the closest to the observations at the regional scale.

Quantitative Analysis of Fault and Fracture Systems and their Impact on Groundwater Flow in Irish Bedrock Aquifers

Fault and fracture systems are the most important store and pathway for groundwater in Ireland’s bedrock aquifers, either directly as conductive flow structures, or indirectly as the locus for the development of dolomitised limestone and karst. This article presents the preliminary results of a study involving the quantitative analysis of fault and fracture systems in the broad range of Irish bedrock types and a consideration of their impact on groundwater flow. The principal aims of the project are to develop generic conceptual models for different fault/fracture systems in different lithologies and at different depths, and to link them to observed groundwater behaviour. Here we briefly describe the geometrical characteristics of the main post-Devonian fault/fracture systems controlling groundwater flow from field observations at outcrops, quarries and mines. The structures range from Lower Carboniferous normal faults through to Variscan-related faults and veins, with the most recent structures including Tertiary strike-slip faults and ubiquitous uplift-related joint systems. The geometrical characteristics of different fault/fracture systems combined with observations of groundwater behaviour in both quarry and mine localities, can be linked to general flow and transport conceptualisations of Irish fractured bedrock. Most importantly they also provide a basis for relating groundwater flow to particular fault/fracture systems and their expression with depth and within different lithological sequences, as well as their regional variability.

Integrating petrography, mineralogy and hydrochemistry to constrain the influence and distribution of groundwater contributions to baseflow in poorly productive aquifers: Insights from Gortinlieve catchment, Co. Donegal, NW Ireland

Identifying groundwater contributions to baseflowforms an essential part of surfacewater body characterisation. The Gortinlieve catchment (5 km2) comprises a headwater stream network of the Carrigans River, itself a tributary of the River Foyle, NW Ireland. The bedrock comprises poorly productive metasediments that are characterised by fracture porosity. We present the findings of a multi-disciplinary study that integrates new hydrochemical and mineralogical investigations with existing hydraulic, geophysical and structural data to identify the scales of groundwater flow and the nature of groundwater/bedrock interaction (chemical denudation). At the catchment scale, the development of deep weathering profiles is controlled by NE-SW regional scale fracture zones associated with mountain building during the Grampian orogeny. In-situ chemical denudation of mineral phases is controlled by micro- to meso-scale fractures related to Alpine compression during Palaeocene to Oligocene times. The alteration of primary muscovite, chlorite (clinochlore) and albite along the surfaces of these small-scale fractures has resulted in the precipitation of illite, montmorillonite and illite/montmorillonite clay admixtures. The interconnected but discontinuous nature of these small-scale structures highlights the role of larger scale faults and fissures in the supply and transportation of weathering solutions to/from the sites of mineral weathering. The dissolution of primarily mineral phases releases the major ions Mg, Ca and HCO3 that are shown to subsequently formthe chemical makeup of groundwaters. Borehole groundwater and stream baseflow hydrochemical data are used to constrain the depths of groundwater flow pathways influencing the chemistry of surface waters throughout the stream profile. The results show that it is predominantly the lower part of the catchment, which receives inputs from catchment/regional scale groundwater flow, that is found to contribute to the maintenance of annual baseflow levels. This study identifies the importance
of deep groundwater in maintaining annual baseflow levels in poorly productive bedrock systems.

Stochastic Analysis of Saltwater Intrusion in Heterogeneous Aquifers using Local Average Subdivision

This study investigates the effects of ground heterogeneity, considering permeability as a random variable, on an intruding SW wedge using Monte Carlo simulations. Random permeability fields were generated, using the method of Local Average Subdivision (LAS), based on a lognormal probability density function. The LAS method allows the creation of spatially correlated random fields, generated using coefficients of variation (COV) and horizontal and vertical scales of fluctuation (SOF). The numerical modelling code SUTRA was employed to solve the coupled flow and transport problem. The well-defined 2D dispersive Henry problem was used as the test case for the method. The intruding SW wedge is defined by two key parameters, the toe penetration length (TL) and the width of mixing zone (WMZ). These parameters were compared to the results of a homogeneous case simulated using effective permeability values. The simulation results revealed: (1) an increase in COV resulted in a seaward movement of TL; (2) the WMZ extended with increasing COV; (3) a general increase in horizontal and vertical SOF produced a seaward movement of TL, with the WMZ increasing slightly; (4) as the anisotropic ratio increased the TL intruded further inland and the WMZ reduced in size. The results show that for large values of COV, effective permeability parameters are inadequate at reproducing the effects of heterogeneity on SW intrusion.

Consideration of coastal risk in the Irish spatial planning process

The vulnerability of coastal areas to associated hazards is increasing due to population growth, development pressure and climate change. It is incumbent on coastal governance regimes to address the vulnerability of coastal inhabitants to these hazards. This is especially so at the local level where development planning and control has a direct impact on the vulnerability of coastal communities. To reduce the vulnerability of coastal populations, risk mitigation and adaptation strategies need to be built into local spatial planning processes. Local government, however, operates within a complex hierarchal governance framework which may promote or limit particular actions. It is important, therefore, to understand how local coastal planning practices are shaped by national and supranational entities. Local governments also have to respond to the demands of local populations. Consequently, it is important to understand local populations’ perceptions of coastal risk and its management. Adopting an in-depth study of coastal planning in County Mayo, Ireland, this paper evaluates: (a) how European and national policies and legislation shape coastal risk management at local level; (b) the incorporation of risk management strategies into local plans; and (c) local perception of coastal risks and risk management. Despite a strong steer from supranational and national legislation and policy, statutory local plans are found to be lacking in appropriate risk mitigation or adaptation strategies. Local residents appear to be lulled into a sense of complacency towards these risks because of the low level of attention afforded to them by the local planning authorities. To avoid potentially disastrous consequences for local residents and businesses, it is imperative that this situation is redressed urgently. Based on our analysis, we recommend: the development and implementation of a national ICZM strategy, supported by detailed local ICZM plans; and obliging local government to address known risks in their plans rather than defer them to project level decision making.