Endemic malaria: an 'indoor' disease in northern Europe

Background: Endemic northern malaria reached 68°N latitude in Europe during the 19th century, where the summer mean temperature only irregularly exceeded 16°C, the lower limit needed for sporogony of Plasmodium vivax. Because of the available historical material and little use of quinine, Finland was suitable for an analysis of endemic malaria and temperature. Methods: Annual malaria death frequencies during 1800–1870 extracted from parish records were analysed against long-term temperature records in Finland, Russia and Sweden. Supporting data from 1750–1799 were used in the interpretation of the results. The life cycle and behaviour of the anopheline mosquitoes were interpreted according to the literature. Results: Malaria frequencies correlated strongly with the mean temperature of June and July of the preceding summer, corresponding to larval development of the vector. Hatching of imagoes peaks in the middle of August, when the temperature most years is too low for the sporogony of Plasmodium. After mating some of the females hibernate in human dwellings. If the female gets gametocytes from infective humans, the development of Plasmodium can only continue indoors, in heated buildings. Conclusion: Northern malaria existed in a cold climate by means of summer dormancy of hypnozoites in humans and indoor transmission of sporozoites throughout the winter by semiactive hibernating mosquitoes. Variable climatic conditions did not affect this relationship. The epidemics, however, were regulated by the population size of the mosquitoes which, in turn, ultimately was controlled by the temperatures of the preceding summer.

Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon

Under the project `Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Monsoon' (SPIM), the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by five atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) during 1985-2004 was assessed. The project was a collaborative effort of the coordinators and scientists from the different modelling groups across the country. All the runs were made at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) at Bangalore on the PARAM Padma supercomputing system. Two sets of simulations were made for this purpose. In the first set, the AGCMs were forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) for May-September during 1985-2004. In the second set, runs were made for 1987, 1988, 1994, 1997 and 2002 forced by SST which was obtained by assuming that the April anomalies persist during May-September. The results of the first set of runs show, as expected from earlier studies, that none of the models were able to simulate the correct sign of the anomaly of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for all the years. However, among the five models, one simulated the correct sign in the largest number of years and the second model showed maximum skill in the simulation of the extremes (i.e. droughts or excess rainfall years). The first set of runs showed some common bias which could arise either from an excessive sensitivity of the models to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or an inability of the models to simulate the link of the Indian monsoon rainfall to Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), or both. Analysis of the second set of runs showed that with a weaker ENSO forcing, some models could simulate the link with EQUINOO, suggesting that the errors in the monsoon simulations with observed SST by these models could be attributed to unrealistically high sensitivity to ENSO.

Geographical Distribution Patterns of Amphibians in the Western Ghats, India

The Western Ghats of India are very rich in amphibian species with 117 species of frogs, toads and caecilians. Eighty-nine species are endemic to this biogeographical region. Analysis of ranges and patterns of geographical distribution of amphibians on the Western Ghats suggest that the southern half of the Western Ghats and the low-medium elevation hills are more diverse in species than the northern half and higher hills. This is attributed to the more widespread rainfall and the less variable climatic conditions in the south. About half the species are apparently localized. Of those species with wider ranges, a majority show patchy distribution. Species preferring the moist evergreen forests as habitats tend to have patchy distributions. This appears to be a result of habitat destruction and fragmentation. The overall patterns of species richness and local endemism are rather different from those of the angiosperms and birds. In birds and angiosperms, a significant proportion of endemics are found on the higher hills. On the contrary, endemic amphibian species are found in the lower altitudinal range of 0-1000 m, with a majority between 800 and 1000 m.

Reproductive phenology of a tropical dry forest in Mudumalai, Southern India

1 Flowering and fruiting phenologies of a tropical dry forest in Mudumalai, southern India, were studied between April 1988 and August 1990. Two sites, a wetter site I receiving 1100mm and a drier site II receiving 600mm of rainfall annually, are compared. A total of 286 trees from 38 species at site I and 167 trees from 27 species at site II was marked for phenological observations. There were 11 species common to the two sites. Several hypotheses relating to the evolution of reproductive phenology are tested. 2 Frequency of species flowering attained a peak at site I during the dry season but at site II, where soil moisture may be limiting during the dry months, the peak was during the wet season. At both sites a majority of species flushed leaves and flowered simultaneously. Among various guilds, the bird-pollinated guild showed distinct dry season flowering, which may be related to better advertisement of large flowers to pollinators during the leafless dry phase. The wind-pollinated guild flowered mainly during the wet season, when wind speeds are highest and favourable for pollen transport. The insect-pollinated guild showed no seasonality in flowering in site I but a wet season flowering in site II. 3 Fruiting frequency attained a peak in site I during the late wet season extending into the early dry season; a time-lag correlation showed that fruiting followed rainfall with a lag of about two months. Site II showed a similar fruiting pattern but this was not statistically significant. The dispersal guilds (animal, wind, and explosive passively-dispersed) did not show any clear seasonality in fruiting, except for the animal-dispersed guild which showed wet season fruiting in site I. 4 Hurlbert's overlap index was also calculated in order to look at synchrony in flowering and fruiting irrespective of climatic (dry and wet month) seasonality. In general, overlap in flowering and fruiting guilds was high because of seasonal aggregation. Among the exceptions, at site II the wind-pollinated flowering guild did not show significant overlap between species although flowering aggregated in the wet season. This could be due to the need to avoid heterospecific pollen transfer. 5 Rarer species tended to flower earlier in the dry season and this again could be an adaptation to avoid the risk of heterospecific pollen transfer or competition for pollinators. The more abundant species flowered mainly during the wet season. Species which flower earlier have larger flowers and, having invested more energy in flowers, also have shorter flower to fruit durations.

Image analysis using multifractals

The efficacy of the multifractal spectrum as a tool for characterizing images has been studied. This spectrum has been computed for digitized images of the nucleus of human cervical cancer cells and it was observed that the entire spectrum is almost fully reproduced for a normal cell while only the right half (q<0) of the spectrum is reproduced for a cancerous cell. Cells in stages in between the two extremes show a shortening of the left half of the spectrum proportional to their condition. The extent of this shortening has been found to be sufficient to permit a classification between three classes of cells at varying distances from a basal cancerous layer-the superficial cells, the intermediate cells and the parabasal cells. This technique may be used for automatic screening of the population while also indicating the stage of malignancy

Estimation of groundwater recharge of shallow aquifer on humid environment in Yaounde, Cameroon using hybrid water-fluctuation and hydrochemistry methods

A study of environmental chloride and groundwater balance has been carried out in order to estimate their relative value for measuring average groundwater recharge under a humid climatic environment with a relatively shallow water table. The hybrid water fluctuation method allowed the split of the hydrologic year into two seasons of recharge (wet season) and no recharge (dry season) to appraise specific yield during the dry season and, second, to estimate recharge from the water table rise during the wet season. This well elaborated and suitable method has then been used as a standard to assess the effectiveness of the chloride method under forest humid climatic environment. Effective specific yield of 0.08 was obtained for the study area. It reflects an effective basin-wide process and is insensitive to local heterogeneities in the aquifer system. The hybrid water fluctuation method gives an average recharge value of 87.14 mm/year at the basin scale, which represents 5.7% of the annual rainfall. Recharge value estimated based on the chloride method varies between 16.24 and 236.95 mm/year with an average value of 108.45 mm/year. It represents 7% of the mean annual precipitation. The discrepancy observed between recharge value estimated by the hybrid water fluctuation and the chloride mass balance methods appears to be very important, which could imply the ineffectiveness of the chloride mass balance method for this present humid environment.

Solar energy decision support system

Energy plays a prominent role in human society. As a result of technological and industrial development,the demand for energy is rapidly increasing. Existing power sources that are mainly fossil fuel based are leaving an unacceptable legacy of waste and pollution apart from diminishing stock of fuels.Hence, the focus is now shifted to large-scale propagation of renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies are clean sources of energy that have a much lower environmental impact than conventional energy technologies. Solar energy is one such renewable energy. Most renewable energy comes either directly or indirectly from the sun. Estimation of solar energy potential of a region requires detailed solar radiation climatology, and it is necessary to collect extensive radiation data of high accuracy covering all climatic zones of the region. In this regard, a decision support system (DSS)would help in estimating solar energy potential considering the region’s energy requirement.This article explains the design and implementation of DSS for assessment of solar energy. The DSS with executive information systems and reporting tools helps to tap vast data resources and deliver information. The main hypothesis is that this tool can be used to form a core of practical methodology that will result in more resilient in time and can be used by decision-making bodies to assess various scenarios. It also offers means of entering, accessing, and interpreting the information for the purpose of sound decision making.

Plant Diversity in the Sharavathi River Basin in Relation to Human Disturbance

Changes in vegetation are taking place due to anthropogenic activities since the colonization of the evergreen forest zone of Western Ghats. The forests of the Western Ghats were contiguous and uniformly rich in endemism within each climatic and physiographic regime. The region continues to be one of the biodiversity hot spots of the world. However unplanned developmental activities are altering the balance of the ecosystem. This study focuses on the floristic structure, composition and diversity of forests with varying degree of human disturbances. Based on the investigations, various strategies for conservation and sustainable utilization of forest resources were proposed.

River water quality response under hypothetical climate change scenarios in Tunga-Bhadra river, India

Analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow by perturbing the climate inputs has been a concern for many authors in the past few years, but there are few analyses for the impacts on water quality. To examine the impact of change in climate variables on the water quality parameters, the water quality input variables have to be perturbed. The primary input variables that can be considered for such an analysis are streamflow and water temperature, which are affected by changes in precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Using hypothetical scenarios to represent both greenhouse warming and streamflow changes, the sensitivity of the water quality parameters has been evaluated under conditions of altered river flow and river temperature in this article. Historical data analysis of hydroclimatic variables is carried out, which includes flow duration exceedance percentage (e.g. Q90), single low- flow indices (e.g. 7Q10, 30Q10) and relationships between climatic variables and surface variables. For the study region of Tunga-Bhadra river in India, low flows are found to be decreasing and water temperatures are found to be increasing. As a result, there is a reduction in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels found in recent years. Water quality responses of six hypothetical climate change scenarios were simulated by the water quality model, QUAL2K. A simple linear regression relation between air and water temperature is used to generate the scenarios for river water temperature. The results suggest that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause impairment in water quality. It was found that there is a significant decrease in DO levels due to the impact of climate change on temperature and flows, even when the discharges were at safe permissible levels set by pollution control agencies (PCAs). The necessity to improve the standards of PCA and develop adaptation policies for the dischargers to account for climate change is examined through a fuzzy waste load allocation model developed earlier. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate change and crop yields in the Indian Cardamom Hills, 1978-2007 CE

In this study we analyzed climate and crop yields data from Indian cardamom hills for the period 1978-2007 to investigate whether there were significant changes in weather elements, and if such changes have had significant impact on the production of spices and plantation crops. Spatial and temporal variations in air temperatures (maximum and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity are evident across stations. The mean air temperature increased significantly during the last 30 years; the greatest increase and the largest significant upward trend was observed in the daily temperature. The highest increase in minimum temperature was registered for June (0.37A degrees C/18 years) at the Myladumpara station. December and January showed greater warming across the stations. Rainfall during the main monsoon months (June-September) showed a downward trend. Relative humidity showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, at the cardamom and tea growing tracts. The warming trend coupled with frequent wet and dry spells during the summer is likely to have a favorable effect on insect pests and disease causing organisms thereby pesticide consumption can go up both during excess rainfall and drought years. The incidence of many minor pest insects and disease pathogens has increased in the recent years of our study along with warming. Significant and slight increases in the yield of small cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum M.) and coffee (Coffea arabica), respectively, were noticed in the recent years.; however the improvement of yield in tea (Thea sinensis) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) has not been seen in our analysis.

Controls on intense silicate weathering in a tropical river, southwestern India

The Silicate Weathering Rate (SWR) and associated Carbon dioxide Consumption Rate (CCR) in tropical silicate terrain is assessed through a study of the major ion chemistry in a small west flowing river of Peninsular India, the Nethravati River. The specific features of the river basin are high mean annual rainfall and temperature, high runoff and a Precambrian basement composed of granitic-gneiss, charnockite and minor metasediments. The water samples (n = 56) were collected from three locations along the Nethravati River and from two of its tributaries over a period of twelve months. Chemical Weathering Rate (CWR) for the entire watershed is calculated by applying rainwater correction using river chloride as a tracer. Chemical Weathering Rate in the Nethravati watershed is estimated to 44 t.km(-2).y(-1) encompassing a SWR of 42 t.km(-2).y(-1) and a maximum carbonate contribution of 2 t.km(-2).y(-1). This SWR is among the highest reported for granito-gneissic terrains. The assessed CCR is 2.9 . 10(5) mol.km(-2).y(-1). The weathering index (Re). calculated from molecular ratios of dissolved cations and silica in the river, suggests an intense silicate weathering leading to kaolinite-gibbsite precipitation in the weathering covers. The intense SWR and CCR could be due to the combination of high runoff and temperature along with the thickness and nature of the weathering cover. The comparison of silicate weathering fluxes with other watersheds reveals that under similar morpho-climatic settings basalt weathering would be 2.5 times higher than the granite-gneissic rocks. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Insights to urban dynamics through landscape spatial pattern analysis

Urbanisation is a dynamic complex phenomenon involving large scale changes in the land uses at local levels. Analyses of changes in land uses in urban environments provide a historical perspective of land use and give an opportunity to assess the spatial patterns, correlation, trends, rate and impacts of the change, which would help in better regional planning and good governance of the region. Main objective of this research is to quantify the urban dynamics using temporal remote sensing data with the help of well-established landscape metrics. Bangalore being one of the rapidly urbanising landscapes in India has been chosen for this investigation. Complex process of urban sprawl was modelled using spatio temporal analysis. Land use analyses show 584% growth in built-up area during the last four decades with the decline of vegetation by 66% and water bodies by 74%. Analyses of the temporal data reveals an increase in urban built up area of 342.83% (during 1973-1992), 129.56% (during 1992-1999), 106.7% (1999-2002), 114.51% (2002-2006) and 126.19% from 2006 to 2010. The Study area was divided into four zones and each zone is further divided into 17 concentric circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand the patterns and extent of the urbanisation at local levels. The urban density gradient illustrates radial pattern of urbanisation for the period 1973-2010. Bangalore grew radially from 1973 to 2010 indicating that the urbanisation is intensifying from the central core and has reached the periphery of the Greater Bangalore. Shannon's entropy, alpha and beta population densities were computed to understand the level of urbanisation at local levels. Shannon's entropy values of recent time confirms dispersed haphazard urban growth in the city, particularly in the outskirts of the city. This also illustrates the extent of influence of drivers of urbanisation in various directions. Landscape metrics provided in depth knowledge about the sprawl. Principal component analysis helped in prioritizing the metrics for detailed analyses. The results clearly indicates that whole landscape is aggregating to a large patch in 2010 as compared to earlier years which was dominated by several small patches. The large scale conversion of small patches to large single patch can be seen from 2006 to 2010. In the year 2010 patches are maximally aggregated indicating that the city is becoming more compact and more urbanised in recent years. Bangalore was the most sought after destination for its climatic condition and the availability of various facilities (land availability, economy, political factors) compared to other cities. The growth into a single urban patch can be attributed to rapid urbanisation coupled with the industrialisation. Monitoring of growth through landscape metrics helps to maintain and manage the natural resources. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Causality analysis of groundwater dynamics based on a Vector Autoregressive model in the semi-arid basin of Gundal (South India)

Causal relationships existing between observed levels of groundwater in a semi-arid sub-basin of the Kabini River basin (Karnataka state, India) are investigated in this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model is used for this purpose. Its structure is built on an upstream/downstream interaction network based on observed hydro-physical properties. Exogenous climatic forcing is used as an input based on cumulated rainfall departure. Optimal models are obtained thanks to a trial approach and are used as a proxy of the dynamics to derive causal networks. It appears to be an interesting tool for analysing the causal relationships existing inside the basin. The causal network reveals 3 main regions: the Northeastern part of the Gundal basin is closely coupled to the outlet dynamics. The Northwestern part is mainly controlled by the climatic forcing and only marginally linked to the outlet dynamic. Finally, the upper part of the basin plays as a forcing rather than a coupling with the lower part of the basin allowing for a separate analysis of this local behaviour. The analysis also reveals differential time scales at work inside the basin when comparing upstream oriented with downstream oriented causalities. In the upper part of the basin, time delays are close to 2 months in the upward direction and lower than 1 month in the downward direction. These time scales are likely to be good indicators of the hydraulic response time of the basin which is a parameter usually difficult to estimate practically. This suggests that, at the sub-basin scale, intra-annual time scales would be more relevant scales for analysing or modelling tropical basin dynamics in hard rock (granitic and gneissic) aquifers ubiquitous in south India. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parameter estimation of a two-horizon soil profile by combining crop canopy and surface soil moisture observations using GLUE

Estimation of soil parameters by inverse modeling using observations on either surface soil moisture or crop variables has been successfully attempted in many studies, but difficulties to estimate root zone properties arise when heterogeneous layered soils are considered. The objective of this study was to explore the potential of combining observations on surface soil moisture and crop variables - leaf area index (LAI) and above-ground biomass for estimating soil parameters (water holding capacity and soil depth) in a two-layered soil system using inversion of the crop model STICS. This was performed using GLUE method on a synthetic data set on varying soil types and on a data set from a field experiment carried out in two maize plots in South India. The main results were (i) combination of surface soil moisture and above-ground biomass provided consistently good estimates with small uncertainity of soil properties for the two soil layers, for a wide range of soil paramater values, both in the synthetic and the field experiment, (ii) above-ground biomass was found to give relatively better estimates and lower uncertainty than LAI when combined with surface soil moisture, especially for estimation of soil depth, (iii) surface soil moisture data, either alone or combined with crop variables, provided a very good estimate of the water holding capacity of the upper soil layer with very small uncertainty whereas using the surface soil moisture alone gave very poor estimates of the soil properties of the deeper layer, and (iv) using crop variables alone (else above-ground biomass or LAI) provided reasonable estimates of the deeper layer properties depending on the soil type but provided poor estimates of the first layer properties. The robustness of combining observations of the surface soil moisture and the above-ground biomass for estimating two layer soil properties, which was demonstrated using both synthetic and field experiments in this study, needs now to be tested for a broader range of climatic conditions and crop types, to assess its potential for spatial applications. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparative study of deglaciation in two neighbouring basins (Warwan and Bhut) of Western Himalaya

Glaciers of the Himalaya contribute significantly in the processes linking atmosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere, thus need to be monitored in view of the climatic variations. In this direction, many studies have been carried out during the last two decades and satellite-based multispectral data have been used extensively for this purpose throughout the world. The present study is aimed at mapping of glaciers in two adjacent basins (Warwan and Bhut) of the Western Himalaya with almost similar altitude and latitude and comparing the changes in the two time-frames with respect to three parameters, i.e. area, debris cover and area altitude distribution of glaciers. The two time-frames are topographical maps of 1962 and IRS LISS III images of 2001/02. Deglaciation was observed in both the basins with 19% and 9% loss in the glaciated area in Warwan and Bhut respectively. This difference may be due to: (i) the smaller size of the glaciers of the Warwan Basin (e.g. 164 glaciers having <1 sq. km area in comparison to 101 glaciers in the Bhut Basin), (ii) lower percentage of moraine cover in Warwan (18) than in the Bhut Basin (30) and (iii) higher percentage of glaciated area lying below 5100 m (80) in Warwan than in the Bhut Basin (70).