Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

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This chapter discusses how the industrial ecological systems can help in dealing with environmental issues in developing countries, and it presents three case studies from India that highlight some of the unique environmental issues of developing world. Industrial ecology explores the assumption that the industrial system can be seen as a certain kind of ecosystem. The scope of industrial ecology goes well beyond waste exchange to the optimization of resources flowing through the economic system. Among the various specific aspects of developing countries, which have to be born in mind, is the fact that the pattern of resource flows in developing countries, and hence, the resultant environmental threat could be very different than what it is in the industrialized west. Typically, the flow of materials through the large, organized manufacturing facilities in the developing countries could be very small in relation to the overall material flow as the small, informal ?industry? plays a key role and forms a very significant portion of the economic activity. The case studies of the Tirupur textile industries, and the leather industry in India, illustrate how redefining the problem from a perspective of resource conservation, and on the basis of resource flow data could point to totally new directions for strategy planning. The case study of the Damodar Valley region amplifies the importance of looking beyond formal industry to solve an environmental problem. It shows that even for globally critical programs, such as climate change program in developing countries, it is just not enough to estimate the emissions from the formal industrial sectors.

Effets du travail de nuit sur la santé

Dans les pays industrialisés, 20% des salariés sont concernés par le travail de nuit. Pourtant, les effets du travail de nuit sur la santé sont peu traités par les revues médicales générales, alors que le travail de nuit a des conséquences non négligeables sur les systèmes cardiovasculaires et digestifs entre autres, comme l'ont démontré de nombreuses études ces dernières décennies. Le travail de nuit a encore récemment attiré l'attention quand il a été déclaré cancérigène probable (catégorie 2A) par le Centre international de recherches sur le cancer. Ainsi dans cet article, seront passés en revue les troubles de la santé qui peuvent être générés ou aggravés par le travail de nuit. Deux cas pratiques illustreront la problématique et permettront d'aborder la conduite à tenir. 20% of employees in industrialized countries are concerned by shift work. Nevertheless, there is very little information in general medical journals about the effects of shift work on health. Shift work can have several major effects on health such as cardiovascular and digestive disorders among others, as demonstrated by several studies in recent decades. Shift work has attracted considerable attention recently when it was declared probable carcinogen by the International Agency for research on cancer. We review the health disorders that may be generated or aggravated by shift work and illustrate the problem by two case studies of occupational medicine and discuss the appropriate attitude to take

Evidence for classification of c.1852_1853AA>GC in MLH1 as a neutral variant for Lynch syndrome

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is an autosomal dominant inherited cancer syndrome characterized by early onset cancers of the colorectum, endometrium and other tumours. A significant proportion of DNA variants in LS patients are unclassified. Reports on the pathogenicity of the c.1852_1853AA>GC (p.Lys618Ala) variant of the MLH1 gene are conflicting. In this study, we provide new evidence indicating that this variant has no significant implications for LS.Methods: The following approach was used to assess the clinical significance of the p.Lys618Ala variant: frequency in a control population, case-control comparison, co-occurrence of the p.Lys618Ala variant with a pathogenic mutation, co-segregation with the disease and microsatellite instability in tumours from carriers of the variant. We genotyped p.Lys618Ala in 1034 individuals (373 sporadic colorectal cancer [CRC] patients, 250 index subjects from families suspected of having LS [revised Bethesda guidelines] and 411 controls). Three well-characterized LS families that fulfilled the Amsterdam II Criteria and consisted of members with the p.Lys618Ala variant were included to assess co-occurrence and co-segregation. A subset of colorectal tumour DNA samples from 17 patients carrying the p.Lys618Ala variant was screened for microsatellite instability using five mononucleotide markers.Results: Twenty-seven individuals were heterozygous for the p.Lys618Ala variant; nine had sporadic CRC (2.41%), seven were suspected of having hereditary CRC (2.8%) and 11 were controls (2.68%). There were no significant associations in the case-control and case-case studies. The p.Lys618Ala variant was co-existent with pathogenic mutations in two unrelated LS families. In one family, the allele distribution of the pathogenic and unclassified variant was in trans, in the other family the pathogenic variant was detected in the MSH6 gene and only the deleterious variant co-segregated with the disease in both families. Only two positive cases of microsatellite instability (2/17, 11.8%) were detected in tumours from p.Lys618Ala carriers, indicating that this variant does not play a role in functional inactivation of MLH1 in CRC patients.Conclusions: The p.Lys618Ala variant should be considered a neutral variant for LS. These findings have implications for the clinical management of CRC probands and their relatives.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Investigation and monitoring of rock slope instabilities in Norway by terrestrial laser scanning

Long-range Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) is widely used in studies on rock slope instabilities. TLS point clouds allow the creation of high-resolution digital elevation models for detailed mapping of landslide morphologies and the measurement of the orientation of main discontinuities. Multi-temporal TLS datasets enable the quantification of slope displacements and rockfall volumes. We present three case studies using TLS for the investigation and monitoring of rock slope instabilities in Norway: 1) the analysis of 3D displacement of the Oksfjellet rock slope failure (Troms, northern Norway); 2) the detection and quantification of rockfalls along the sliding surfaces and at the front of the Kvitfjellet rock slope instability (Møre og Romsdal, western Norway); 3) the analysis of discontinuities and rotational movements of an unstable block at Stampa (Sogn og Fjordane, western Norway). These case studies highlight the possibilities but also limitations of TLS in investigating and monitoring unstable rock slopes.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

An Investigation of User Costs and Benefits of Winter Road Closures, June 2005

This project explores the user costs and benefits of winter road closures. Severe winter weather makes travel unsafe and dramatically increases crash rates. When conditions become unsafe due to winter weather, road closures should allow users to avoid crash costs and eliminate costs associated with rescuing stranded motorists. Therefore, the benefits of road closures are the avoided safety costs. The costs of road closures are the delays that are imposed on motorists and motor carriers who would have made the trip had the road not been closed. This project investigated the costs and benefits of road closures and found that evaluating the benefits and costs is not as simple as it appears. To better understand the costs and benefits of road closures, the project investigates the literature, conducts interviews with shippers and motor carriers, and conducts case studies of road closures to determine what actually occurred on roadways during closures. The project also estimates a statistical model that relates weather severity to crash rates. Although, the statistical model is intended to illustrate the possibility to quantitatively relate measurable and predictable weather conditions to the safety performance of a roadway. In the future, weather conditions such as snow fall intensity, visibility, etc., can be used to make objective measures of the safety performance of a roadway rather than relying on subjective evaluations of field staff. The review of the literature and the interviews clearly illustrate that not all delays (increased travel time) are valued the same. Expected delays (routine delays) are valued at the generalized costs (value of the driver’s time, fuel, insurance, wear and tear on the vehicle, etc.), but unexpected delays are valued much higher because they result in interruption of synchronous activities at the trip’s destination. To reduce the costs of delays resulting from road closures, public agencies should communicate as early as possible the likelihood of a road closure.

Some applications of FISST to wireless communications

This paper aims at illustrating some applications of Finite Random Set (FRS) theory to the design and analysis of wireless communication receivers, and at pointing out similarities and differences between this scenario and that pertaining to multi-target tracking, where the use of FRS has been traditionally advocated. Two case studies are considered, l.e., multiuser detection in a dynamic environment, and multicarrier (OFDM) transmission on a frequency-selective channel. Detector designand performance evaluation are discussed, along with the advantages of importing FRS-based estimation techniques to the context of wireless communications.

Dairy Markets in Asia: An Overview of Recent Findings and Implications, September 2005

This paper is an overview of important findings regarding the ongoing evolution of Asian dairy markets based on a series of new economic investigations. These investigations provide systematic empirical foundations for assessing Asian dairy markets with their new consumption patterns, changing industries, and trade prospects under different domestic and trade policy regimes. The findings are drawn from four case studies (China, India, Japan, and Korea), as well as a prospective analysis of future regional patterns of consumption and a policy analysis of trade liberalization of Asian dairy markets. The overview distills the findings of these new investigations and integrates them in the earlier economic literature; it draws policy implications and identifies lessons for countries outside of Asia, especially for emerging exporters in Latin America.

Guidelines for the Conversion of Urban Four-Lane Undivided Roadways to Three-Lane Two-Way Left-turn Lane Facilities, April 2001

Four-lane undivided roadways in urban areas can experience a degradation of service and/or safety as traffic volumes increase. In fact, the existence of turning vehicles on this type of roadway has a dramatic effect on both of these factors. The solution identified for these problems is typically the addition of a raised median or two-way left-turn lane (TWLTL). The mobility and safety benefits of these actions have been proven and are discussed in the “Past Research” chapter of this report along with some general cross section selection guidelines. The cost and right-of-way impacts of these actions are widely accepted. These guidelines focus on the evaluation and analysis of an alternative to the typical four-lane undivided cross section improvement approach described above. It has been found that the conversion of a four-lane undivided cross section to three lanes (i.e., one lane in each direction and a TWLTL) can improve safety and maintain an acceptable level of service. These guidelines summarize the results of past research in this area (which is almost nonexistent) and qualitative/quantitative before-and-after safety and operational impacts of case study conversions located throughout the United States and Iowa. Past research confirms that this type of conversion is acceptable or feasible in some situations but for the most part fails to specifically identify those situations. In general, the reviewed case study conversions resulted in a reduction of average or 85th percentile speeds (typically less than five miles per hour) and a relatively dramatic reduction in excessive speeding (a 60 to 70 percent reduction in the number of vehicles traveling five miles per hour faster than the posted speed limit was measured in two cases) and total crashes (reductions between 17 to 62 percent were measured). The 13 roadway conversions considered had average daily traffic volumes of 8,400 to 14,000 vehicles per day (vpd) in Iowa and 9,200 to 24,000 vehicles per day elsewhere. In addition to past research and case study results, a simulation sensitivity analysis was completed to investigate and/or confirm the operational impacts of a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion. First, the advantages and disadvantages of different corridor simulation packages were identified for this type of analysis. Then, the CORridor SIMulation (CORSIM) software was used x to investigate and evaluate several characteristics related to the operational feasibility of a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion. Simulated speed and level of service results for both cross sections were documented for different total peak-hour traffic, access densities, and access-point left-turn volumes (for a case study corridor defined by the researchers). These analyses assisted with the identification of the considerations for the operational feasibility determination of a four -lane to three-lane conversion. The results of the simulation analyses primarily confirmed the case study impacts. The CORSIM results indicated only a slight decrease in average arterial speed for through vehicles can be expected for a large range of peak-hour volumes, access densities, and access-point left-turn volumes (given the assumptions and design of the corridor case study evaluated). Typically, the reduction in the simulated average arterial speed (which includes both segment and signal delay) was between zero and four miles per hour when a roadway was converted from a four-lane undivided to a three-lane cross section. The simulated arterial level of service for a converted roadway, however, showed a decrease when the bi-directional peak-hour volume was about 1,750 vehicles per hour (or 17,500 vehicles per day if 10 percent of the daily volume is assumed to occur in the peak hour). Past research by others, however, indicates that 12,000 vehicles per day may be the operational capacity (i.e., level of service E) of a three-lane roadway due to vehicle platooning. The simulation results, along with past research and case study results, appear to support following volume-related feasibility suggestions for four-lane undivided to three-lane cross section conversions. It is recommended that a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion be considered as a feasible (with respect to volume only) option when bi-directional peak-hour volumes are less than 1,500 vehicles per hour, but that some caution begin to be exercised when the roadway has a bi-directional peak-hour volume between 1,500 and 1,750 vehicles per hour. At and above 1,750 vehicles per hour, the simulation indicated a reduction in arterial level of service. Therefore, at least in Iowa, the feasibility of a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion should be questioned and/or considered much more closely when a roadway has (or is expected to have) a peak-hour volume of more than 1,750 vehicles. Assuming that 10 percent of the daily traffic occurs during the peak-hour, these volume recommendations would correspond to 15,000 and 17,500 vehicles per day, respectively. These suggestions, however, are based on the results from one idealized case xi study corridor analysis. Individual operational analysis and/or simulations should be completed in detail once a four-lane undivided to three-lane cross section conversion is considered feasible (based on the general suggestions above) for a particular corridor. All of the simulations completed as part of this project also incorporated the optimization of signal timing to minimize vehicle delay along the corridor. A number of determination feasibility factors were identified from a review of the past research, before-and-after case study results, and the simulation sensitivity analysis. The existing and expected (i.e., design period) statuses of these factors are described and should be considered. The characteristics of these factors should be compared to each other, the impacts of other potentially feasible cross section improvements, and the goals/objectives of the community. The factors discussed in these guidelines include • roadway function and environment • overall traffic volume and level of service • turning volumes and patterns • frequent-stop and slow-moving vehicles • weaving, speed, and queues • crash type and patterns • pedestrian and bike activity • right-of-way availability, cost, and acquisition impacts • general characteristics, including - parallel roadways - offset minor street intersections - parallel parking - corner radii - at-grade railroad crossings xii The characteristics of these factors are documented in these guidelines, and their relationship to four-lane undivided to three-lane cross section conversion feasibility identified. This information is summarized along with some evaluative questions in this executive summary and Appendix C. In summary, the results of past research, numerous case studies, and the simulation analyses done as part of this project support the conclusion that in certain circumstances a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion can be a feasible alternative for the mitigation of operational and/or safety concerns. This feasibility, however, must be determined by an evaluation of the factors identified in these guidelines (along with any others that may be relevant for a individual corridor). The expected benefits, costs, and overall impacts of a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion should then be compared to the impacts of other feasible alternatives (e.g., adding a raised median) at a particular location.

Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Assimilation process in a psychotherapy with a client presenting schizoid personality disorder

The assimilation of problematic experiences has been studied as change processes in psychotherapies of different client populations. Several theory-building case studies using the assimilation model have shown how important a meaning bridge is in such change processes. In a client presenting schizoid personality disorder the creation of meaning as an affect-evoking process may be a particularly important stage in the change process. The present case study aims to apply the assimilation model to a psychotherapy process with a highly disturbed client and focuses on the creation of a meaning bridge in the process. Moreover, the assimilation analysis focuses on the effect of an external person, i.e. the partner or the therapist, when responding to the client's unassimilated problematic experiences. Their effects on the client's assimilation processes are discussed.

Pilot licensing after aortic valve surgery.

Background and aim of the study: Bicuspid aortic valve is the most common congenital heart malformation, and a high percentage of patients with this condition will develop complications over time. It is rare that pilots undergo aortic valve surgery, and the confirmation of flight-licensing requirements after aortic valve replacement (AVR) is a challenge for the patient's cardiac surgeon and, particularly, for the Aeromedical Examiner (AME). Only AMEs are able to determine the flight status of pilots. Furthermore, in military and in civil aviation (e.g., Red Bull Air Race), the high G-load environment experienced by pilots is an exceptional physiological parameter, which must be considered postoperatively. Methods: A review was conducted of the aeronautical, surgical and medical literature, and of European pilot-licensing regulations. Case studies are also reported for two Swiss Air Force pilots. Results: According to European legislation, pilots can return to flight duty from the sixth postoperative month, with the following limitations: that an aortic bioprosthesis presents no restrictions in cardiac function, requires no cardioactive medications, yet requires a flight operation with co-pilot, the avoidance of accelerations over +3 Gz and, in military aviation, restricts the pilot to non-ejection-seat aircraft. The patient follow up must include both echocardiographic and rhythm assessments every six months. Mechanical prostheses cannot be certified because the required anticoagulation therapy is a disqualifying condition for pilot licensing. Conclusion: Pilot licensing after aortic valve surgery is possible, but with restrictions. The +Gz exposition is of concern in both military and civilian aviation (aerobatics). The choice of bioprosthesis type and size is determinant. Pericardial and stentless valves seem to show better flow characteristics under high-output conditions. Repetitive cardiological controls are mandatory for the early assessment of structural valve disease and rhythm disturbances. A pre-emptive timing is recommended when reoperation is indicated, without waiting for clinical manifestations of structural valve disease.

Controlo interno na prevenção de erros e fraudes

Atualmente, as situações de erros e fraudes, têm ocorrido com muita frequência a nível mundial. Por exemplo em Cabo Verde estas têm vindo a ganhar espaço nos mídias, onde a todo momento aparece casos de erros e fraudes, como por exemplo, os casos da Sociedade Cabo-verdiana de Tabacos, Banco Comercial do Atlântico, Caixa Económica, Câmara Municipal da Ribeira Brava, Associação Sport Club Moreirense, Sociedade de Segurança Industrial, Marítima e Comercial, Ministério das Finanças entre outros. Essas situações desfavoráveis para qualquer empresa, são derivadas de uma gestão menos cuidada dos recursos, e dos valores e princípios éticos cultivados pelas pessoas. O triângulo de fraude criada por Donald Cressey demonstra os motivos que leva um individuo a cometer atos fraudulentos, como sendo a motivação, a pressão e a oportunidade. Neste sentido, o controlo interno surge como uma ferramenta muito importante e fundamental para mitigar os riscos advenientes da ocorrência de erros e fraudes, suscetíveis de acontecer nas empresas. O controlo interno traduz num conjunto de medidas que protegem o património da empresa e garantem o cumprimento dos seus objetivos entretanto, como qualquer outra ferramenta de gestão está possui determinadas limitações que podem ser ultrapassadas com a utilização de alguns procedimentos básicos e, ou alternativos de controlo interno. É imprescindível que um sistema de controlo interno, para além de implementado, adequado e em funcionamento, seja mantido e acompanhado. O estudo dos casos da SILMAC, SA e da SCT, SA, mostram a importância que o controlo interno tem na prevenção e deteção de erros e fraudes, pois denota-se que as fraudes cometidas aconteceram na sequência de fraquezas de controlo interno e no excesso de confiança depositada nos colaboradores. Currently, the situations of errors and fraud have occurred very often in the world. Cape Verde in these situations have gained ground in the media, where every moment appears to errors and fraud cases, such as cases of “Sociedade cabo-verdiana de tabacos, Banco Comercial do Atlântico, Caixa Económica, Câmara Municipal da Ribeira Brava, Associação Sport Club Moreirense, Sociedade de segurança industrial, marítima e comercial, Ministério de finanças” amongst others. These situations which unfavorable for any company, are derived from a less carefully management of resources and ethical principles and values cultivated by people. The fraud triangle created by Donald Cressey, demonstrates reasons that lead an individual to commit fraudulent acts, such as motivation, opportunity and pressure. In this sense, internal control emerges as a very important tool to mitigate the risks arising from situations of errors and fraud, which are likely to happen in companies. The internal control translates into a set of measures that protect the assets of the business and ensure the fulfillment of its objectives however, like any other management tool is has limitations, however these can be overcome with the use of basic procedures, or alternative internal control. It is essential that an internal control system, in addition to implemented, adequate and functioning is maintained and monitored. The case studies of SILMAC and SCT, show the importance of internal control is the prevention and detection of errors and fraud. For note that the fraud occurred following oversights in its internal control and confidence in their employees.