Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD

Atmospheric circulation modes are important concepts in understanding the variability of atmospheric dynamics. Assuming their spatial patterns to be fixed, such modes are often described by simple indices from rather short observational data sets. The increasing length of reanalysis products allows these concepts and assumptions to be scrutinised. Here we investigate the stability of spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere teleconnections by using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as well as several control and transient millennium-scale simulations with coupled models. The observed and simulated centre of action of the two major teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and to some extent the Pacific North American (PNA), are not stable in time. The currently observed dipole pattern of the NAO, its centre of action over Iceland and the Azores, split into a north–south dipole pattern in the western Atlantic with a wave train pattern in the eastern part, connecting the British Isles with West Greenland and the eastern Mediterranean during the period 1940–1969 AD. The PNA centres of action over Canada are shifted southwards and over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1915–1944 AD. The analysis further shows that shifts in the centres of action of either teleconnection pattern are not related to changes in the external forcing applied in transient simulations of the last millennium. Such shifts in their centres of action are accompanied by changes in the relation of local precipitation and temperature with the overlying atmospheric mode. These findings further undermine the assumption of stationarity between local climate/proxy variability and large-scale dynamics inherent when using proxy-based reconstructions of atmospheric modes, and call for a more robust understanding of atmospheric variability on decadal timescales.

Variability between laboratories performing coagulation tests with identical platforms: a nationwide evaluation study.

BACKGROUND While the assessment of analytical precision within medical laboratories has received much attention in scientific enquiry, the degree of as well as the sources causing variation between them remains incompletely understood. In this study, we quantified the variance components when performing coagulation tests with identical analytical platforms in different laboratories and computed intraclass correlations coefficients (ICC) for each coagulation test. METHODS Data from eight laboratories measuring fibrinogen twice in twenty healthy subjects with one out of 3 different platforms and single measurements of prothrombin time (PT), and coagulation factors II, V, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI and XIII were analysed. By platform, the variance components of (i) the subjects, (ii) the laboratory and the technician and (iii) the total variance were obtained for fibrinogen as well as (i) and (iii) for the remaining factors using ANOVA. RESULTS The variability for fibrinogen measurements within a laboratory ranged from 0.02 to 0.04, the variability between laboratories ranged from 0.006 to 0.097. The ICC for fibrinogen ranged from 0.37 to 0.66 and from 0.19 to 0.80 for PT between the platforms. For the remaining factors the ICC's ranged from 0.04 (FII) to 0.93 (FVIII). CONCLUSIONS Variance components that could be attributed to technicians or laboratory procedures were substantial, led to disappointingly low intraclass correlation coefficients for several factors and were pronounced for some of the platforms. Our findings call for sustained efforts to raise the level of standardization of structures and procedures involved in the quantification of coagulation factors.

Food Insecurity in America: A Call to Action

When 1 in 6 people in the country is living in a food insecure household, that is an outrage. A country as wealthy as ours– wealthy enough to end hunger even in hard times like those we have been experiencing– should not countenance the moral blight of hunger. Those of us who work to reduce and eventually end hunger in this country cannot succeed, however, by making moral arguments alone. What is needed in addition to move voters, policymakers and institutions to act is a strong evidence base that establishes the causes of hunger, the consequences of hunger for individuals involved, the breadth of the population affected, and the practical strategies to address hunger. The articles in this journal illuminate many of these topics while exploring the impacts of federal nutrition programs and deepening the case that economic and nutrition supports for families reduce food insecurity and mediate the impacts of poverty and food insecurity, particularly for children.

Effectiveness of the Call in Beach Volleyball Attacking Play

In beach volleyball the setter has the opportunity to give her or his hitter a “call”. The call intends that the setter suggests to her or his partner where to place the attack in the opponent’s court. The effectiveness of a call is still unknown. We investigated the women’s and men’s Swiss National Beach Volleyball Championships in 2011 and analyzed 2185 attacks. We found large differences between female and male players. While men called in only 38.4% of attacks, women used calls in 85.5% of attacks. If the male players followed a given call, 63% of the attacks were successful. The success rate of attacks without any call was 55.8% and 47.6% when the call was ignored. These differences were not significant (χ2(2) = 4.55, p = 0.103). In women’s beach volleyball, the rate of successful attacks was 61.5% when a call was followed, 35% for attacks without a call, and 42.6% when a call was ignored. The differences were highly significant (χ2(2) = 23.42, p < 0.0005). Taking into account the findings of the present study, we suggested that the call was effective in women’s beach volleyball, while its effect in men’s game was unclear. Considering the quality of calls we indicate that there is a significant potential to increase the effectiveness of a call.

Time Variable Gravity: Contributions of GOCE Satellite Data to Monthly and Bi-monthly GRACE Gravity Estimates

A feasibility study by Pail et al. (Can GOCE help to improve temporal gravity field estimates? In: Ouwehand L (ed) Proceedings of the 4th International GOCE User Workshop, ESA Publication SP-696, 2011b) shows that GOCE (‘Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer’) satellite gravity gradiometer (SGG) data in combination with GPS derived orbit data (satellite-to-satellite tracking: SST-hl) can be used to stabilize and reduce the striping pattern of a bi-monthly GRACE (‘Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment’) gravity field estimate. In this study several monthly (and bi-monthly) combinations of GRACE with GOCE SGG and GOCE SST-hl data on the basis of normal equations are investigated. Our aim is to assess the role of the gradients (solely) in the combination and whether already one month of GOCE observations provides sufficient data for having an impact in the combination. The estimation of clean and stable monthly GOCE SGG normal equations at high resolution ( >  d/o 150) is found to be difficult, and the SGG component, solely, does not show significant added value to monthly and bi-monthly GRACE gravity fields. Comparisons of GRACE-only and combined monthly and bi-monthly solutions show that the striping pattern can only be reduced when using both GOCE observation types (SGG, SST-hl), and mainly between d/o 45 and 60.

8p23 beta-defensin copy number determination by single-locus pseudogene-based paralog ratio tests risk bias due to low-frequency sequence variations.

BACKGROUND The copy number variation (CNV) in beta-defensin genes (DEFB) on human chromosome 8p23 has been proposed to contribute to the phenotypic differences in inflammatory diseases. However, determination of exact DEFB CN is a major challenge in association studies. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), paralog ratio tests (PRT) and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) have been extensively used to determine DEFB CN in different laboratories, but inter-method inconsistencies were observed frequently. In this study we asked which one is superior among the three methods for DEFB CN determination. RESULTS We developed a clustering approach for MLPA and PRT to statistically correlate data from a single experiment. Then we compared qPCR, a newly designed PRT and MLPA for DEFB CN determination in 285 DNA samples. We found MLPA had the best convergence and clustering results of the raw data and the highest call rate. In addition, the concordance rates between MLPA or PRT and qPCR (32.12% and 37.99%, respectively) were unacceptably low with underestimated CN by qPCR. Concordance rate between MLPA and PRT (90.52%) was high but PRT systematically underestimated CN by one in a subset of samples. In these samples a sequence variant which caused complete PCR dropout of the respective DEFB cluster copies was found in one primer binding site of one of the targeted paralogous pseudogenes. CONCLUSION MLPA is superior to PRT and even more to qPCR for DEFB CN determination. Although the applied PRT provides in most cases reliable results, such a test is particularly sensitive to low-frequency sequence variations preferably accumulating in loci like pseudogenes which are most likely not under selective pressure. In the light of the superior performance of multiplex assays, the drawbacks of such single PRTs could be overcome by combining more test markers.

Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies. METHODS We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands. RESULTS The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years. CONCLUSIONS This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.

Call for uniform neuropsychological assessment after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: Swiss recommendations.

BACKGROUND In a high proportion of patients with favorable outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), neuropsychological deficits, depression, anxiety, and fatigue are responsible for the inability to return to their regular premorbid life and pursue their professional careers. These problems often remain unrecognized, as no recommendations concerning a standardized comprehensive assessment have yet found entry into clinical routines. METHODS To establish a nationwide standard concerning a comprehensive assessment after aSAH, representatives of all neuropsychological and neurosurgical departments of those eight Swiss centers treating acute aSAH have agreed on a common protocol. In addition, a battery of questionnaires and neuropsychological tests was selected, optimally suited to the deficits found most prevalent in aSAH patients that was available in different languages and standardized. RESULTS We propose a baseline inpatient neuropsychological screening using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) between days 14 and 28 after aSAH. In an outpatient setting at 3 and 12 months after bleeding, we recommend a neuropsychological examination, testing all relevant domains including attention, speed of information processing, executive functions, verbal and visual learning/memory, language, visuo-perceptual abilities, and premorbid intelligence. In addition, a detailed assessment capturing anxiety, depression, fatigue, symptoms of frontal lobe affection, and quality of life should be performed. CONCLUSIONS This standardized neuropsychological assessment will lead to a more comprehensive assessment of the patient, facilitate the detection and subsequent treatment of previously unrecognized but relevant impairments, and help to determine the incidence, characteristics, modifiable risk factors, and the clinical course of these impairments after aSAH.

A New Approach for Automatic Removal of Movement Artifacts in Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Time Series by Means of Acceleration Data

Abstract: Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) enables the non-invasive measurement of changes in hemodynamics and oxygenation in tissue. Changes in light-coupling due to movement of the subject can cause movement artifacts (MAs) in the recorded signals. Several methods have been developed so far that facilitate the detection and reduction of MAs in the data. However, due to fixed parameter values (e.g., global threshold) none of these methods are perfectly suitable for long-term (i.e., hours) recordings or were not time-effective when applied to large datasets. We aimed to overcome these limitations by automation, i.e., data adaptive thresholding specifically designed for long-term measurements, and by introducing a stable long-term signal reconstruction. Our new technique (“acceleration-based movement artifact reduction algorithm”, AMARA) is based on combining two methods: the “movement artifact reduction algorithm” (MARA, Scholkmann et al. Phys. Meas. 2010, 31, 649–662), and the “accelerometer-based motion artifact removal” (ABAMAR, Virtanen et al. J. Biomed. Opt. 2011, 16, 087005). We describe AMARA in detail and report about successful validation of the algorithm using empirical NIRS data, measured over the prefrontal cortex in adolescents during sleep. In addition, we compared the performance of AMARA to that of MARA and ABAMAR based on validation data.

English Dialect App

Do you pronounce the /r/ in 'arm'? Do you call a shelf a 'sheuf'? And what on earth is a 'hoddy-doddy'? There is extensive variation in English dialects: this is why your answers to such questions will allow this app to localize your broader dialect region on a map of England. Did your home dialect change over time? Our algorithm is based on historical data from the Survey of English Dialects. If it guesses where you are from correctly, your home dialect has probably remained stable over the past decades. If the guess is far off, however, it is probably because of dialect change. - Can we localize your dialect based on your pronunciation of 26 words? - Record your dialect and listen to recordings of other users and to historical dialect recordings! - Choose a pronunciation variant, e.g. 'sheuf', and discover where in England it is used...or choose a place and explore its dialect!