Assessing consistency of fish survey data : uncertainties in the estimation of mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari) abundance at South Georgia

Acknowledgments The authors wish to thank the crews, fishermen and scientists who conducted the various surveys from which data were obtained, and Mark Belchier and Simeon Hill for their contributions. This work was supported by the Government of South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands. Additional logistical support provided by The South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute with thanks to Paul Brickle. Thanks to Stephen Smith of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) for help in constructing bootstrap confidence limits. Paul Fernandes receives funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland), and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. We also wish to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions on earlier versions of this manuscript.

Using individual tracking data to validate the predictions of species distribution models

The authors would like to thank the College of Life Sciences of Aberdeen University and Marine Scotland Science which funded CP's PhD project. Skate tagging experiments were undertaken as part of Scottish Government project SP004. We thank Ian Burrett for help in catching the fish and the other fishermen and anglers who returned tags. We thank José Manuel Gonzalez-Irusta for extracting and making available the environmental layers used as environmental covariates in the environmental suitability modelling procedure. We also thank Jason Matthiopoulos for insightful suggestions on habitat utilization metrics as well as Stephen C.F. Palmer, and three anonymous reviewers for useful suggestions to improve the clarity and quality of the manuscript.

Additional evidence for fisheries acoustics : small cameras and angling gear provide tilt angle distributions and other relevant data for mackerel surveys

Acknowledgements This work received funding from the Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS) pooling initiative and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions. We thank Joshua Lawrence and Niall Fallon for their assistance in collecting some of the video data.

State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars

We thank Orkney Islands Council for access to Eynhallow and Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd and Marine Scotland for fieldwork and equipment support. Handling and tagging of fulmars was conducted under licences from the British Trust for Ornithology and the UK Home Office. EE was funded by a Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland/University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine studentship and LQ was supported by a NERC Studentship. Thanks also to the many colleagues who assisted with fieldwork during the project, and to Helen Bailey and Arliss Winship for advice on implementing the state-space model.

State-space modelling of geolocation data reveals sex differences in the use of management areas by breeding northern fulmars

We thank Orkney Islands Council for access to Eynhallow and Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd and Marine Scotland for fieldwork and equipment support. Handling and tagging of fulmars was conducted under licences from the British Trust for Ornithology and the UK Home Office. EE was funded by a Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland/University of Aberdeen College of Life Sciences and Medicine studentship and LQ was supported by a NERC Studentship. Thanks also to the many colleagues who assisted with fieldwork during the project, and to Helen Bailey and Arliss Winship for advice on implementing the state-space model.

A new stepwise carbon cycle data assimilation system using multiple data streams to constrain the simulated land surface carbon cycle

Acknowledgements. This work was mainly funded by the EU FP7 CARBONES project (contracts FP7-SPACE-2009-1-242316), with also a small contribution from GEOCARBON project (ENV.2011.4.1.1-1-283080). This work used eddy covariance data acquired by the FLUXNET community and in particular by the following networks: AmeriFlux (U.S. Department of Energy, Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Carbon Program; DE-FG02-04ER63917 and DE-FG02-04ER63911), AfriFlux, AsiaFlux, CarboAfrica, CarboEuropeIP, CarboItaly, CarboMont, ChinaFlux, Fluxnet-Canada (supported by CFCAS, NSERC, BIOCAP, Environment Canada, and NRCan), GreenGrass, KoFlux, LBA, NECC, OzFlux, TCOS-Siberia, USCCC. We acknowledge the financial support to the eddy covariance data harmonization provided by CarboEuropeIP, FAO-GTOS-TCO, iLEAPS, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, National Science Foundation, University of Tuscia, Université Laval and Environment Canada and US Department of Energy and the database development and technical support from Berkeley Water Center, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Microsoft Research eScience, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of California-Berkeley, University of Virginia. Philippe Ciais acknowledges support from the European Research Council through Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 “IMBALANCE-P”. The authors wish to thank M. Jung for providing access to the GPP MTE data, which were downloaded from the GEOCARBON data portal (https://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/geodb/projects/Data.php). The authors are also grateful to computing support and resources provided at LSCE and to the overall ORCHIDEE project that coordinate the development of the code (http://labex.ipsl.fr/orchidee/index.php/about-the-team).

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Biological and Physical Factors Affecting the Natural History and Evolution of Encapsulated Development

The evolution of reproductive strategies involves a complex calculus of costs and benefits to both parents and offspring. Many marine animals produce embryos packaged in tough egg capsules or gelatinous egg masses attached to benthic surfaces. While these egg structures can protect against environmental stresses, the packaging is energetically costly for parents to produce. In this series of studies, I examined a variety of ecological factors affecting the evolution of benthic development as a life history strategy. I used marine gastropods as my model system because they are incredibly diverse and abundant worldwide, and they exhibit a variety of reproductive and developmental strategies.

The first study examines predation on benthic egg masses. I investigated: 1) behavioral mechanisms of predation when embryos are targeted (rather than the whole egg mass); 2) the specific role of gelatinous matrix in predation. I hypothesized that gelatinous matrix does not facilitate predation. One study system was the sea slug Olea hansineensis, an obligate egg mass predator, feeding on the sea slug Haminoea vesicula. Olea fed intensely and efficiently on individual Haminoea embryos inside egg masses but showed no response to live embryos removed from gel, suggesting that gelatinous matrix enables predation. This may be due to mechanical support of the feeding predator by the matrix. However, Haminoea egg masses outnumber Olea by two orders of magnitude in the field, and each egg mass can contain many tens of thousands of embryos, so predation pressure on individuals is likely not strong. The second system involved the snail Nassarius vibex, a non-obligate egg mass predator, feeding on the polychaete worm Clymenella mucosa. Gel neither inhibits nor promotes embryo predation for Nassarius, but because it cannot target individual embryos inside an egg mass, its feeding is slow and inefficient, and feeding rates in the field are quite low. However, snails that compete with Nassarius for scavenged food have not been seen to eat egg masses in the field, leaving Nassarius free to exploit the resource. Overall, egg mass predation in these two systems likely benefits the predators much more than it negatively affects the prey. Thus, selection for environmentally protective aspects of egg mass production may be much stronger than selection for defense against predation.

In the second study, I examined desiccation resistance in intertidal egg masses made by Haminoea vesicula, which preferentially attaches its flat, ribbon-shaped egg masses to submerged substrata. Egg masses occasionally detach and become stranded on exposed sand at low tide. Unlike adults, the encased embryos cannot avoid desiccation by selectively moving about the habitat, and the egg mass shape has high surface-area-to-volume ratio that should make it prone to drying out. Thus, I hypothesized that the embryos would not survive stranding. I tested this by deploying individual egg masses of two age classes on exposed sand bars for the duration of low tide. After rehydration, embryos midway through development showed higher rates of survival than newly-laid embryos, though for both stages survival rates over 25% were frequently observed. Laboratory desiccation trials showed that >75% survival is possible in an egg mass that has lost 65% of its water weight, and some survival (<25%) was observed even after 83% water weight lost. Although many surviving embryos in both experiments showed damage, these data demonstrate that egg mass stranding is not necessarily fatal to embryos. They may be able to survive a far greater range of conditions than they normally encounter, compensating for their lack of ability to move. Also, desiccation tolerance of embryos may reduce pressure on parents to find optimal laying substrata.

The third study takes a big-picture approach to investigating the evolution of different developmental strategies in cone snails, the largest genus of marine invertebrates. Cone snail species hatch out of their capsules as either swimming larvae or non-dispersing forms, and their developmental mode has direct consequences for biogeographic patterns. Variability in life history strategies among taxa may be influenced by biological, environmental, or phylogenetic factors, or a combination of these. While most prior research has examined these factors singularly, my aim was to investigate the effects of a host of intrinsic, extrinsic, and historical factors on two fundamental aspects of life history: egg size and egg number. I used phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models to examine relationships between these two egg traits and a variety of hypothesized intrinsic and extrinsic variables. Adult shell morphology and spatial variability in productivity and salinity across a species geographic range had the strongest effects on egg diameter and number of eggs per capsule. Phylogeny had no significant influence. Developmental mode in Conus appears to be influenced mostly by species-level adaptations and niche specificity rather than phylogenetic conservatism. Patterns of egg size and egg number appear to reflect energetic tradeoffs with body size and specific morphologies as well as adaptations to variable environments. Overall, this series of studies highlights the importance of organism-scale biotic and abiotic interactions in evolutionary patterns.

Statistical methods for polyhedral shape classification with incomplete data - application to cryo-electron tomographic images

A certain type of bacterial inclusion, known as a bacterial microcompartment, was recently identified and imaged through cryo-electron tomography. A reconstructed 3D object from single-axis limited angle tilt-series cryo-electron tomography contains missing regions and this problem is known as the missing wedge problem. Due to missing regions on the reconstructed images, analyzing their 3D structures is a challenging problem. The existing methods overcome this problem by aligning and averaging several similar shaped objects. These schemes work well if the objects are symmetric and several objects with almost similar shapes and sizes are available. Since the bacterial inclusions studied here are not symmetric, are deformed, and show a wide range of shapes and sizes, the existing approaches are not appropriate. This research develops new statistical methods for analyzing geometric properties, such as volume, symmetry, aspect ratio, polyhedral structures etc., of these bacterial inclusions in presence of missing data. These methods work with deformed and non-symmetric varied shaped objects and do not necessitate multiple objects for handling the missing wedge problem. The developed methods and contributions include: (a) an improved method for manual image segmentation, (b) a new approach to 'complete' the segmented and reconstructed incomplete 3D images, (c) a polyhedral structural distance model to predict the polyhedral shapes of these microstructures, (d) a new shape descriptor for polyhedral shapes, named as polyhedron profile statistic, and (e) the Bayes classifier, linear discriminant analysis and support vector machine based classifiers for supervised incomplete polyhedral shape classification. Finally, the predicted 3D shapes for these bacterial microstructures belong to the Johnson solids family, and these shapes along with their other geometric properties are important for better understanding of their chemical and biological characteristics.

The application of aryne chemistry and use of α-diazo carbonyl derivatives in indazole synthesis with biological evaluation

This thesis outlines the synthetic chemistry involved in the preparation of a range of novel indazole compounds and details the subsequent investigation into their potential as biologically active agents. The synthetic route utilised in this research to form the indazole structure was the [3+2] dipolar cycloaddition of diazo carbonyl compounds with reactive aryne intermediates generated in situ. The preparation of further novel indazole derivatives containing different functional groups and substituents was performed by synthesising alternative 1,3- dipole and dipolarophile analogues and provided additionally diverse compounds. Further derivatisation of the indazole product was made possible by deacylation and alkylation methods. Transformation reactions were performed on alkenecontaining ester side chains to provide novel epoxide, aldehyde and tertiary amine derivatives. The first chapter is a review of the literature beginning with a short overview on the structure, reactivity and common synthetic routes to diazo carbonyl derivatives. More attention is given to the use of diazo compounds as 1,3-dipoles in cycloaddition reactions or where the diazo group is incorporated into the final product. A review of the interesting background, structure and reactivity of aryne intermediates is also presented. In addition, some common syntheses of indazole compounds are presented as well as a brief discussion on the importance of indazole compounds as therapeutic agents. The second chapter discusses the synthetic routes employed towards the synthesis of the range of indazoles. Initially, the syntheses of the diazo carbonyl and aryne precursors are described. Next, the synthetic methods to prepare the indazole compounds are provided followed by discussion on derivatisation of the indazole compounds including N-deacylation, N-benzylation and ester side-chain transformation of some alkene-containing indazoles. A series of novel indazole derivatives were submitted for anti-cancer screening at the U.S National Cancer Institute (NCI). A number of these derivatives were identified as hit compounds, with excellent growth inhibition. The results obtained from biological evaluation from the NCI are provided with further results pending from the Community for Open Antimicrobial Drug Discovery. The third chapter details the full experimental procedures, including spectroscopic and analytical data for all the compounds prepared during this research.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with postlarvae of barnacle of Semibalanus balanoides and Elminius modestus, 2010

Ocean acidification and global warming are occurring concomitantly, yet few studies have investigated how organisms will respond to increases in both temperature and CO2. Intertidal microcosms were used to examine growth, shell mineralogy and survival of two intertidal barnacle post-larvae, Semibalanus balanoides and Elminius modestus, at two temperatures (14 and 19°C) and two CO2 concentrations (380 and 1,000 ppm), fed with a mixed diatom-flagellate diet at 15,000 cells ml-1 with flow rate of 10 ml-1 min-1. Control growth rates, using operculum diameter, were 14 ± 8 µm day-1 and 6 ± 2 µm day-1 for S. balanoides and E. modestus, respectively. Subtle, but significant decreases in E. modestus growth rate were observed in high CO2 but there were no impacts on shell calcium content and survival by either elevated temperature or CO2. S. balanoides exhibited no clear alterations in growth rate but did show a large reduction in shell calcium content and survival under elevated temperature and CO2. These results suggest that a decrease by 0.4 pH(NBS) units alone would not be sufficient to directly impact the survival of barnacles during the first month post-settlement. However, in conjunction with a 4-5°C increase in temperature, it appears that significant changes to the biology of these organisms will ensue.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, pigments and biological processes during experiments with coralline alga Corallina sessilis

Previous studies have shown that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations affect calcification in some planktonic and macroalgal calcifiers due to the changed carbonate chemistry of seawater. However, little is known regarding how calcifying algae respond to solar UV radiation (UVR, UVA+UVB, 280-400 nm). UVR may act synergistically, antagonistically or independently with ocean acidification (high CO2/low pH of seawater) to affect their calcification processes. We cultured the articulated coralline alga Corallina sessilis Yendo at 380 ppmv (low) and 1000 ppmv (high) CO2 levels while exposing the alga to solar radiation treatments with or without UVR. The presence of UVR inhibited the growth, photosynthetic O2evolution and calcification rates by13%, 6% and 3% in the low and by 47%, 20% and 8% in the high CO2 concentrations, respectively, reflecting a synergistic effect of CO2 enrichment with UVR. UVR induced significant decline of pH in the CO2-enriched cultures. The contents of key photosynthetic pigments, chlorophyll a and phycobiliproteins decreased, while UV-absorptivity increased under the highpCO2/low pH condition. Nevertheless, UV-induced inhibition of photosynthesis increased when the ratio of particulate inorganic carbon/particulate organic carbon decreased under the influence of CO2-acidified seawater, suggesting that the calcified layer played a UV-protective role. Both UVA and UVB negatively impacted photosynthesis and calcification, but the inhibition caused by UVB was about 2.5-2.6 times that caused by UVA. The results imply that coralline algae suffer from more damage caused by UVB as they calcify less and less with progressing ocean acidification.

San Francisco Coastal System grain size and geochemical data for sand provenance study

Over 150 million cubic meter of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach sized-sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region.

(Table 1) Geographical location and nutrient composition of saline lake sediments (SLS) and nearby adjacent biological soil crusts (BSC) identified as potential dust sources

While microbial communities of aerosols have been examined, little is known about their sources. Nutrient composition and microbial communities of potential dust sources, saline lake sediments (SLS) and adjacent biological soil crusts (BSC), from Southern Australia were determined and compared with a previously analyzed dust sample. Multivariate analyses of fingerprinting profiles indicated that the bacterial communities of SLS and BSC were different, and these differences were mainly explained by salinity. Nutrient concentrations varied among the sites but could not explain the differences in microbial diversity patterns. Comparison of microbial communities with dust samples showed that deflation selects against filamentous cyanobacteria, such as the Nostocales group. This could be attributed to the firm attachment of cyanobacterial filaments to soil particles and/or because deflation occurs mainly in disturbed BSC, where cyanobacterial diversity is often low. Other bacterial groups, such as Actinobacteria and the spore-forming Firmicutes, were found in both dust and its sources. While Firmicutes-related sequences were mostly detected in the SLS bacterial communities (10% of total sequences), the actinobacterial sequences were retrieved from both (11-13%). In conclusion, the potential dust sources examined here show highly diverse bacterial communities and contain nutrients that can be transported with aerosols. The obtained fingerprinting and sequencing data may enable back tracking of dust plumes and their microorganisms.